Oscar Predictions: First Post Nomination Charts

Ive got to say I was hoping Rourke could still take it, Is there a reason you think he's out?

Streep is every bit if not more likely to win the oscar.

The academy cannot continue ignoring her enormous talent? Is that why she has 14 oscar nominations, that they have ignored her talent? Kate Winslet in the Reader was simply masterful, Streep was merely…. juicy. Streep deserved her nomination, nothing more, especially in the company of Hathaway and Winslet.

Brad, Taraji for the win? It isn't often that the oscar goes to someone not nominated for the SAG or Globe… plus, I just don't feel like it was that difficult of a role to play. I don't feel as strongly about it as I do Winslet vs Streep, but I hope you are wrong about Penn and Taraji.

I love Milk and think it's the most deserving nominee for Best Picture, but I can't help but feel that Mickey Rourke's performance was miles better than Sean Penn's.

Ugh, the acting categories are very difficult to decide. All the support actresses pretty much give equally great performances, so that one is pretty much up in the air. It's a tie between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke because they both give it their all, but from what I've read and listened to Rourke put way much more work into his character (6 months putting on weight for the role, 4 months of wrestling training). It's also a three way toss up between Fincher, Boyle and Van Sant for director. If Fincher wins I feel it will be more like a reward for his career as a director so far. I wouldn't be suprised if Van Sant or Boyle won either. I still have to watch the Reader, but my guess would be that Winslet can't stand up to the Meryl Streep power house performance. I personally feel Milk will win and not only that but it deserves to win also. Heath will inevitably win that oscar, no question about it. It's too damn bad that he's dead, I would've given anything to see his speech. about being the Joker

I hope Meryl Streep wins. Anne Hathaway was good but not great and I think Kate Winslet was better in Revolutionary Road. Meryl did a fantastic job in Doubt and she has been snubbed like 10 times since her last win.

Should Win:
MILK
Winslet
Penn
Shannon
Davis

I'm still sticking with my last week's predictions:

Best Actor: Sean Penn(Milk)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep(Doubt)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger(The Dark Knight)
Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson(The Curious blah blah)
Achievment in Directing: Danny Boyle(Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Picture: Milk

Picture: Slumdog
Directing: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep
sup Actor – Heath Ledger
sup Actress: Penelope Cruz

Should win: "Milk". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Josh Brolin. Viola Davis. Gus Van Sant.

Will Win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Heath Ledger. Penelope Cruz. Danny Boyle.

MERYL STREEP – HER 3RD OSCAR IS WAY OVER DUE

Besides she was amazing in Doubt, a lot better than Kate in The Reader, which is nothing compared to Meryl's Sophie's Choice

Slumdog Millionaire for everything!!!! Best Picture and Best Director without a doubt. Danny Boyle deserves Best Director and his film rocks!

Picture : Slumdog Millionaire (Looking @ Globes and SAG, and other attention this movie received)

Actor : Mickey Rourke (Great actor with bad past, but he repaid it all)

Actress : Either Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, somehow Anne Hathaway will be underdog (Strongest category), but who knows, might be a tie between Meryl and Kate since both of them is overdue….

Supporting Actor : Heath Ledger (seems to be a lock)

Supporting Actress : Fight between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis

Director : Either Gus Van Sant or Danny Boyle (but Boyle will most likely won)

So sorry for twice error.

Regards from Indonesia

Hey Brad–

I just saw Slumdog Millionaire this afternoon and felt a lot of the same things about it that you felt. It was a nice underdog movie, and there were definitely some great moments, but it wasn't a great movie.

So tell me if I'm crazy: I think the movie would have been about 10 times better if he didn't get the question right at the end. Think about it. A lot of what made the movie so hard for me to believe was the "Just because" business. What if he guessed incorrect? Then his sitting alone in the train station makes more sense, and I think that last scene is even better. Yeah he didn't get the money, but that wasn't the point of why he went on the show–he wanted to get Lakira's attention and he succeeded. That was the real prize, that's what was the truly poignant part. The fact that he ends up a rich man as well just made it seem a lot more phony.

I'm still deciding if they would have had to change the title if this were the case, but I think it would have been much more worthy of all this awards buzz that way.

@Dan Tralder: Okay, Taraji was not nominated for the golden globe, but she WAS nominated at the SAG's. and a lot of people say the SAGs are a good indicator for the oscars, but since the winner (Winslet) is no longer in that category, supporting actress is wide open. As much as i love Taraji and want her to win, my guess would go to cruz or davis, but im keeping my fingers crossed. Also are people forgetting about Ledger? If he doesnt win, i would probably start to cry. His performance was amazing, and no one is pittying his performance because he died. Also for everyone saying an oscar is overdue for Meryl, hello she has won it TWICE! One for best actress and another for best supporting actress. Do you know how many women can say that? not a lot. Winslet is much more overdue, she has given amazing performances and has been snubbed everytime (no im not saying she should have won everytime, but she should have won at least once). As for best picture i was a fan of Button and Slumdog. Milk was good, but I dont know about best picture; however thats just my opinion. I do agree that it will probably be one of those three

eh, please tell me why it has to be winslet?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mighty Aphrodite (1995) – Mira Sorvino
Apollo 13 (1995) – Kathleen Quinlan
Georgia (1995) – Mare Winningham
Nixon (1995) – Joan Allen (I)
Sense and Sensibility (1995) – Kate Winslet

Best Actress in a Leading Role
As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt (I)
Afterglow (1997) – Julie Christie (I)
Mrs Brown (1997) – Judi Dench
Titanic (1997) – Kate Winslet
Wings of the Dove, The (1997) – Helena Bonham Carter

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Beautiful Mind, A (2001) – Jennifer Connelly
Gosford Park (2001) – Helen Mirren
Gosford Park (2001) – Maggie Smith (I)
In the Bedroom (2001) – Marisa Tomei
Iris (2001/I) – Kate Winslet

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank
Being Julia (2004) – Annette Bening
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) – Kate Winslet
Maria Full of Grace (2004) – Catalina Sandino Moreno
Vera Drake (2004) – Imelda Staunton

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Queen, The (2006) – Helen Mirren
Devil Wears Prada, The (2006) – Meryl Streep
Little Children (2006) – Kate Winslet
Notes on a Scandal (2006) – Judi Dench
Volver (2006/I) – Pen�lope Cruz

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Changeling (2008) – Angelina Jolie
Doubt (2008/I) – Meryl Streep
Frozen River (2008) – Melissa Leo
Rachel Getting Married (2008) – Anne Hathaway (I)
Reader, The (2008) – Kate Winslet

clearly she isn't the best among the nominees every single time.
come on, you really think the mediocre reader is worth any prize?????

After some serious thought, I decided to change my stance on something. Even though I don't believe benjamin button should win best picture this years at the academy awards, I still feel it is an incredibly well crafted film. Fincher seems to have put more effort into his movie than anyone else. But what do I know. Plus, miraculously Rachel Getting Married came to a theatre on the opposite side of town, so I finally got a chance to see it. I was very surprised how natural all the conversations felt. Anne Hathaway AND her counter part Rosemarie DeWitt give incredible performances. I would say it is definitely a must see.

I hope kate winslet wins. I know that Meryl is the best actress alive and one of the best actresses of all time but he already has two oscar. maybe she deserved to win when she was nominated for nowhere in africa, bridges of madison county… but i think that this is not her year to win again. althought i am sure that she will win again some year. that's for sure. but kate is long overdue. her performances are all great and she should have won at least once (for eternal sunshine, she was definitely better than hilary swank). so i think this year MUST be her year. in the supporting actress category, i hope Penelope DOESN'T win. i think she's totally overrated and she doesn't deserves it. NOT YET. it's weird because i'm spanish and everyone is Spain wants Penelope to win (obviously) but i don't. so my bet is for viola davis or marisa tomei, both great actresses.

I will say now that I have seen all the major contenders give their performances for best actress, I feel anne hathaway deserves the oscar. Her performance was the best all around. I saw kate winslet in the reader today and personally feel she was better in revolutionary road. So she doesn't deserve it this time, sorry folks.

Hey Brad—Just finished seeing Slumdog Millionaire 10 minutes ago…and people who are predicting about Ben Button….and then you talking about Milk shaking things up..i m sorry….Slumdog will take 6 awards home…..though i predicted Gus Van Sant for Best Director…but now i have to take back my word after seeing this one….

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Screenplay(adapted)
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Song(though i think "We are coming down" will give them a tough fight but just coz it's Rahman..the Academy will honour the Indian Maestro).

I still think it can pick another award(original Score)……..

Rich:You are damn right man…it is written…hell ya…Slumdog gonna win……..

Brad,
I was really surprised at your Best Supp. Actress choice…Taraji P. Henson? Really? Not only do I not think she is the front-runner, personally I think she was a total waste of a nominee. The role had very little depth, and paled in comparison to the other nominated performances and not nominated (Rosemaire DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Hiam Abbass for The Visitor, Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married). I sincerely hope you're wrong about this one, because she was nothing more than adequate in the role (as was everyone else in that movie).
I hope Milk wins for Best Picture, upsetting the good-but-overrated Slumdog Millionaire. I would be OK with Danny Boyle winning director, though, he pieced the movie together quite well and compellingly.
As for the lead acting races, I hardly think they the "locks" you do. I hope Penn wins, but Rourke is a real competitor. As for Best Actress, the race is even tighter (and much stronger). Meryl and Kate both came away with the SAG for the movies they're nominated in, and both are long overdue for an Oscar. How can you call Winslet a lock? I actually do believe she will sneak in a win, but I think it's going to be extremely close. With those two locked at the top, I wouldn't be too surprised either if Anne Hathaway snuck in for an upset. All of the actresses this year were worthy of a nomination–it's the strongest year for actresses in a long, long time. Congratulations to them all, nominated and not nominated.
Ledger is, indeed, a lock to win the Oscar. I'd say Brolin may have edged him out for me personally, but there's no stopping Ledger and his performance was, indeed, great.
Care to explain your Taraji choice a little more? It's the only one that really threw me and that I truly disagree with.