Oscar Predictions: First Post Nomination Charts
'Milk' is starting to shake things up
With just over three weeks to go before the 2009 Oscars on February 22 it is time to begin doing a little Oscar prognosticating for the top six categories and I will have three more installments published every Thursday leading up to Oscar night. Of course, the last installment will feature polls where you can vote on ALL of the categories, but for now let's keep it to the top six since there is enough to talk about here as I don't think these are all as cut and dry as it may seem… Well, at least half of the categories don't seem all that cut and dry.
As far as Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor go I think we have relative locks in Sean Penn, Kate Winslet and Heath Ledger. At this point it would surprise me if the Oscar wins went to anyone else based on what we have seen so far.
However, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress and even Best Picture don't seem to be as locked down in my mind. Sure, we have frontrunners, but the Academy is a screwy bunch and there are a few things to consider.
First for Best Supporting Actress. Originally I had Kate Winslet's performance in The Reader climbing the ladder in this category but the Academy slapped her in the Best Actress category and ignored her performance in Revolutionary Road which I see as ultimately catapulting her into the #1 slot there and leaves the Supporting Actress category in disarray.
The Globes and SAGs both gave this category to Winslet, but for most of the year Penelope Cruz's performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona was the favorite to win. With Winslet out of the way does that now pave the way for Cruz or has Winslet's departure and early award wins opened the door for all five actresses in contention? My guess is for the latter and as a result it moves an actress I had just missing the nominee cut throughout all of my predictions moving into the #1 slot.
Although The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has been receiving mediocre responses from most Oscar prognosticators and critics there is one name that always rises to the top: Taraji P. Henson. No matter what people have to say about the movie Taraji has been getting high marks from everyone. Considering the mortal locks in the three other acting categories this is the one category the Academy can separate themselves from the other award shows and I really think we are looking at a close race between Henson and Davis and unless things change along the way, Henson is my pick.
Next we come to Best Director. Most will have Danny Boyle in this category, but when it comes to direction I don't think Slumdog compares to Benjamin Button. Of course, I am someone that loves Benjamin Button and simply thought Slumdog Millionaire was a cute little film with a cliche ending, but nothing worthy of awards. Maybe you say Ben Button is pretentious and overblown. Fine, but isn't that right in the Academy's wheelhouse? But would that be too obvious?
Along those lines Milk has quickly become my Oscar wild card and it comes into play in both Best Director and Picture. Whereas Danny Boyle may be the popular choice and David Fincher may be the pretentious choice isn't Gus Van Sant the choice Goldilocks would call "just right"? And when it comes to Best Picture I think it is a race that remains between Button, Slumdog and Milk.
While I still have Slumdog as my top pick for Picture there was something A.O. Scott said in his comments on the Charlie Rose Show that has me thinking: "I think the Oscars are an odd phenomena because what they're really about is not the best movies of a given year, but the American film industry’s image of itself." Both he and the New Yorker's David Denby believe Milk is the frontrunner for Picture and why not, after all the Academy did snub the gay-themed Brokeback Mountain and seem to be embracing Milk. Perhaps Milk will be the Academy's way of making up for Brokeback? Not sure what the difference is, but it's a theory that's impossible to deny.
So that's the reasoning behind the charts you will find on the next page. You will notice there has been some up-and-down movement that doesn't mesh with my final predictions before the nominees were announced, but that's because after the nominee announcement I did update the predictions in my "The Contenders" section and the movement is based on those very early predictions.
Since this is the first round of predictions since the nominees were announced one week ago I hope you have plenty of comments to bring to the table. Change my mind. Tell me where you think I am wrong. Convince me! I want to be convinced!
Click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
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Ive got to say I was hoping Rourke could still take it, Is there a reason you think he's out?
I'm still going with Rourke for Best Actor.
Streep is every bit if not more likely to win the oscar.
Meryl Streep will get it, especially after her SAG win. The academy members cannot continue ignoring her enormous talent and besides, she gave the best and most powerful performance among the 5 in her category.
The academy cannot continue ignoring her enormous talent? Is that why she has 14 oscar nominations, that they have ignored her talent? Kate Winslet in the Reader was simply masterful, Streep was merely…. juicy. Streep deserved her nomination, nothing more, especially in the company of Hathaway and Winslet.
Brad, Taraji for the win? It isn't often that the oscar goes to someone not nominated for the SAG or Globe… plus, I just don't feel like it was that difficult of a role to play. I don't feel as strongly about it as I do Winslet vs Streep, but I hope you are wrong about Penn and Taraji.
I agree. I would really like to see best actor go to Mickey Rourke. I enjoyed Penn's performance in Milk, but who else on the planet could have played The Ram as good as Rourke did
I love Milk and think it's the most deserving nominee for Best Picture, but I can't help but feel that Mickey Rourke's performance was miles better than Sean Penn's.
I believe Sean Penn will win the Oscar for leading actor. While it is down to him and Mickey Rourke, Rourke's performance has been more of a critically acclaimed performance. That explains a win at the Golden Globes where the Hollywood Foreign Press selects the winners. Penn's performance is more appealing to other actors. It would explain a win at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards and ultimately the Oscars, because it is other actors selecting the winner.
Ugh, the acting categories are very difficult to decide. All the support actresses pretty much give equally great performances, so that one is pretty much up in the air. It's a tie between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke because they both give it their all, but from what I've read and listened to Rourke put way much more work into his character (6 months putting on weight for the role, 4 months of wrestling training). It's also a three way toss up between Fincher, Boyle and Van Sant for director. If Fincher wins I feel it will be more like a reward for his career as a director so far. I wouldn't be suprised if Van Sant or Boyle won either. I still have to watch the Reader, but my guess would be that Winslet can't stand up to the Meryl Streep power house performance. I personally feel Milk will win and not only that but it deserves to win also. Heath will inevitably win that oscar, no question about it. It's too damn bad that he's dead, I would've given anything to see his speech. about being the Joker
I believe that Robert Downey Jr. should win the supporting Oscar. He is definitely back in the hearts of all people and deserves an award. It has been a long road for RDJ but I don't see him leaving anytime soon and should get the award he rightly deserves.
I hope Meryl Streep wins. Anne Hathaway was good but not great and I think Kate Winslet was better in Revolutionary Road. Meryl did a fantastic job in Doubt and she has been snubbed like 10 times since her last win.
I think Winslet will win it. The Academy might have in mind that she's been nominated countless times before and is yet to win, and finally hand it to her sort of a lifetime achievement award. Heck, Scorcese never won it until just recently so It might be her time.
@USC film 04: Lifetime achievement awards at the age of 33… This is what the Academy has come to.
Milk should win best picture
Van Sant Director
Penn
Winslet
Downey Jr
Davis
are the most deserving
Should Win:
MILK
Winslet
Penn
Shannon
Davis
I didn't really think Milk was that great. It certainly wasn't bad, but I could take or leave it. Sean Penn Was good, of course but the film didn't really jump out at me in an y way. I think Slumdog Millionaire will win Best Picture – right now it's a freight train with the brake lines cut. I'd lean towards David Fincher for Director – Fincher's not yet been rewarded for his efforts and Button's a classy affair. Also it's not up for 13 Oscars for nothing, and even if it's not your cup of tea it's undeniably well done. I've noticed a lot of the time over the last decade or so the Best Picture and Best Director have been split between the two top films; going by that logic if Slumdog wins Best Picture then Button wins Director. Although my heart says Mickey Rourke for Best Actor my head says Sean Penn. Heath Ledger's a total lock for supporting. Winslet should be a safe bet for Best Actress. The Supporting Actress category is a little tricky – wacky results crop up more than any other category here – Anna Paquin for The Piano, Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny etc. As good as Viola Davis is in Doubt she's really only in one scene! I thought Marisa Tomei was a little lightweight, and although I did like her in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, I felt Penelope Cruz was a touch overstated. For me it's a toss up between Amy Adams for Doubt and Taraji Henson for Button. I'd be inclined to go for Taraji Henson. Incidentally I'd bet my last penny on Man On Wire winning Best Documentary.
I'm still sticking with my last week's predictions:
Best Actor: Sean Penn(Milk)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep(Doubt)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger(The Dark Knight)
Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson(The Curious blah blah)
Achievment in Directing: Danny Boyle(Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Picture: Milk
BENJAMIN BUTTON SHOULD OWWWNNN!!!!
Picture: Slumdog
Directing: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep
sup Actor – Heath Ledger
sup Actress: Penelope Cruz
Milk is definitely the most deserving of best picture. I think, in these times with prop 8, it has a real shot at winning, and same with van sant for director. Sean Penn has won the SAG and the BFCA, and has been claimed best actor by both the NYFCC and the LAFCA. I think he's definitely a safe bet for Milk, although I hope that Richard Jenkins wins for The Visitor. Best Actress is a toss-up between Streep and Winslet. Hathaway is out of the competition by now (she's only won the BFCA, which was a tie). Supp. actor is probably going to be Ledger, but Josh Brolin has some major associations backing him, such as the National Board of Review and the NYFCC. Supp. Actress could either go to Davis or Crüz at this point. I personally hope Davis would win. Milk has no serious competition (except for maybe WALL-E, which has a slim chance) in Original screenplay, so it'll take the award there, and slumdog will probably take adapted. Bustray signing off!
Should win: "Milk". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Josh Brolin. Viola Davis. Gus Van Sant.
Will Win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Heath Ledger. Penelope Cruz. Danny Boyle.
picture: Slumdog
actor: Rourke
director: Finch
actress: Winslett
sup actor: Heath
sup actress: Henson
MERYL STREEP – HER 3RD OSCAR IS WAY OVER DUE
Besides she was amazing in Doubt, a lot better than Kate in The Reader, which is nothing compared to Meryl's Sophie's Choice
SHOULD win:
Slumdog
Fincher
Rourke
Winslet (It's a crime that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated; she was the best)
Ledger
Cruz
In Bruges for Best Original Screenplay!
Slumdog Millionaire for everything!!!! Best Picture and Best Director without a doubt. Danny Boyle deserves Best Director and his film rocks!
WILL WIN:
Slumdog
Boyle
Penn
Winslet – Not a lifetime achievement, definitely one of her best performances if not the best, and this is just her year.
Ledger
And I'm pretty sure that Viola Davis will win for the same reason that Swinton won last year. This is a category where films that aren't going to win anything else get recognition. Michael Clayton was beloved by the Academy, but they didn't give it anything else because something else always trumped it. Since Doubt won't win anything else (other than maybe Streep), this is the chance to give it an award. No chance for Henson/Adams, Tomei is a major underdog, and I don't think Cruz will win either.
Picture : Slumdog Millionaire (Looking @ Globes and SAG, and other attention this movie received)
Actor : Mickey Rourke (Great actor with bad past, but he repaid it all)
Actress : Either Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, somehow Anne Hathaway will be underdog (Strongest category), but who knows, might be a tie between Meryl and Kate since both of them is overdue….
Supporting Actor : Heath Ledger (seems to be a lock)
Supporting Actress : Fight between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis
Director : Either Gus Van Sant or Danny Boyle (but Boyle will most likely won)
So sorry for twice error.
Regards from Indonesia
Whilst the Best Actor may seem to be a choice between Penn and Rourke, who could believe an actor could turn Nixon into an almost sympathetic character? I would like to see Frank Langella win here. Ok, he had a lot of material to work with (even more than Penn), but his posture, mannerisms and style were all convincing, IMHO.
Hey Brad–
I just saw Slumdog Millionaire this afternoon and felt a lot of the same things about it that you felt. It was a nice underdog movie, and there were definitely some great moments, but it wasn't a great movie.
So tell me if I'm crazy: I think the movie would have been about 10 times better if he didn't get the question right at the end. Think about it. A lot of what made the movie so hard for me to believe was the "Just because" business. What if he guessed incorrect? Then his sitting alone in the train station makes more sense, and I think that last scene is even better. Yeah he didn't get the money, but that wasn't the point of why he went on the show–he wanted to get Lakira's attention and he succeeded. That was the real prize, that's what was the truly poignant part. The fact that he ends up a rich man as well just made it seem a lot more phony.
I'm still deciding if they would have had to change the title if this were the case, but I think it would have been much more worthy of all this awards buzz that way.
Hi Brad
I'm not agree there's a lock in the best actor category. Sean Penn & Mickey Rourke has their 50% chance each.
Sure, Sean Penn's role isn't easy & he get the SAG award. But for me there are 3 things that make Rourke's a strong contender as well:
1. Rourke's role is a very demanding one. I am agree with someone here said he can't imagine anyone else playing Randy the Ram. I'm sure years from now, it will be among the best performances lists.
2. Oscar has the tendency not to give the trophy to the same actor more then once, unless that year that particular actor is so damn good & clearly above the level of anyone else in the same category, like Tom Hanks in Forest Gump or Daniel Day-Lewis last year.
Anyone even remember the WTF Adrien Brody win? I suspect he won because every other nominees that year already won best actor.
3. His down to earth speech on Golden Globes. Who's ready for a repeat? I do.
Regards from Indonesia (no, I'm not the same as poster #27)
@Dan Tralder: Okay, Taraji was not nominated for the golden globe, but she WAS nominated at the SAG's. and a lot of people say the SAGs are a good indicator for the oscars, but since the winner (Winslet) is no longer in that category, supporting actress is wide open. As much as i love Taraji and want her to win, my guess would go to cruz or davis, but im keeping my fingers crossed. Also are people forgetting about Ledger? If he doesnt win, i would probably start to cry. His performance was amazing, and no one is pittying his performance because he died. Also for everyone saying an oscar is overdue for Meryl, hello she has won it TWICE! One for best actress and another for best supporting actress. Do you know how many women can say that? not a lot. Winslet is much more overdue, she has given amazing performances and has been snubbed everytime (no im not saying she should have won everytime, but she should have won at least once). As for best picture i was a fan of Button and Slumdog. Milk was good, but I dont know about best picture; however thats just my opinion. I do agree that it will probably be one of those three
MY WINNERS: ACTOR: Sean Penn
ACTREES: Kate Winslet
S. ACTOR: Heath Ledger
S. ACTREES: Amy Adams
eh, please tell me why it has to be winslet?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mighty Aphrodite (1995) – Mira Sorvino
Apollo 13 (1995) – Kathleen Quinlan
Georgia (1995) – Mare Winningham
Nixon (1995) – Joan Allen (I)
Sense and Sensibility (1995) – Kate Winslet
Best Actress in a Leading Role
As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt (I)
Afterglow (1997) – Julie Christie (I)
Mrs Brown (1997) – Judi Dench
Titanic (1997) – Kate Winslet
Wings of the Dove, The (1997) – Helena Bonham Carter
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Beautiful Mind, A (2001) – Jennifer Connelly
Gosford Park (2001) – Helen Mirren
Gosford Park (2001) – Maggie Smith (I)
In the Bedroom (2001) – Marisa Tomei
Iris (2001/I) – Kate Winslet
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank
Being Julia (2004) – Annette Bening
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) – Kate Winslet
Maria Full of Grace (2004) – Catalina Sandino Moreno
Vera Drake (2004) – Imelda Staunton
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Queen, The (2006) – Helen Mirren
Devil Wears Prada, The (2006) – Meryl Streep
Little Children (2006) – Kate Winslet
Notes on a Scandal (2006) – Judi Dench
Volver (2006/I) – Pen�lope Cruz
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Changeling (2008) – Angelina Jolie
Doubt (2008/I) – Meryl Streep
Frozen River (2008) – Melissa Leo
Rachel Getting Married (2008) – Anne Hathaway (I)
Reader, The (2008) – Kate Winslet
clearly she isn't the best among the nominees every single time.
come on, you really think the mediocre reader is worth any prize?????
people who are not nominated for the Golden Globes are the people having maximum chance of winning the oscar.
After some serious thought, I decided to change my stance on something. Even though I don't believe benjamin button should win best picture this years at the academy awards, I still feel it is an incredibly well crafted film. Fincher seems to have put more effort into his movie than anyone else. But what do I know. Plus, miraculously Rachel Getting Married came to a theatre on the opposite side of town, so I finally got a chance to see it. I was very surprised how natural all the conversations felt. Anne Hathaway AND her counter part Rosemarie DeWitt give incredible performances. I would say it is definitely a must see.
still gotta see the reader, I hear winslet is crazy good.
I hope kate winslet wins. I know that Meryl is the best actress alive and one of the best actresses of all time but he already has two oscar. maybe she deserved to win when she was nominated for nowhere in africa, bridges of madison county… but i think that this is not her year to win again. althought i am sure that she will win again some year. that's for sure. but kate is long overdue. her performances are all great and she should have won at least once (for eternal sunshine, she was definitely better than hilary swank). so i think this year MUST be her year. in the supporting actress category, i hope Penelope DOESN'T win. i think she's totally overrated and she doesn't deserves it. NOT YET. it's weird because i'm spanish and everyone is Spain wants Penelope to win (obviously) but i don't. so my bet is for viola davis or marisa tomei, both great actresses.
This isn't about who did or didn't win or how many wins or nominations a person had in previous years, it's about movies that came out in 2008. So with that said, Streep will win for Doubt based on the merit of that performance in a small cast full of great performances . Winslet would have won if she had been nominated in the supporting category for "The Reader" but it is not a lead actress role (and SAG voters knew it). Penn will win Best Actor. It's a nuanced performance and the movie did well at the box office and with critics. Slumdog Millionaire is a sure thing for best pic (I'd make a strong wager on that). It has gotten practically every award so far in that category -why should it go any differently with the Academy?) For supporting : Heath is a lock based on the sheer artistry of his performance. Sup. Actress I'm less certain of but think it will either be Cruz (because Allen's films do well winning in this category) or Davis (it may be short but it's happened before and the performance was incredible.
I will say now that I have seen all the major contenders give their performances for best actress, I feel anne hathaway deserves the oscar. Her performance was the best all around. I saw kate winslet in the reader today and personally feel she was better in revolutionary road. So she doesn't deserve it this time, sorry folks.
I'm just not seeing an Academy Slumdog backlash happening. Anecdotally, I think most people will tell you they loved the movie, and moreso than the other contenders. Sure, in another year, maybe with some true masterpiece nominees, there would be more of a fight here. The only other excellent film nominated is Milk, and between the two Slumdog strikes the better balance between crowd-pleaser and artful accomplishment. Some folks seem to be trying to make the case for Benjamin Button as a possible alternative due to its box office success, but I don't see it. Slumdog is on a box office tear right now, and most people I know who have seen BB, myself included, walked away feeling pretty "meh" about it. This is a year entirely constructed for Slumdog to win. It is…written. Sorry.
Hey Brad—Just finished seeing Slumdog Millionaire 10 minutes ago…and people who are predicting about Ben Button….and then you talking about Milk shaking things up..i m sorry….Slumdog will take 6 awards home…..though i predicted Gus Van Sant for Best Director…but now i have to take back my word after seeing this one….
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Screenplay(adapted)
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Song(though i think "We are coming down" will give them a tough fight but just coz it's Rahman..the Academy will honour the Indian Maestro).
I still think it can pick another award(original Score)……..
I hope that Slumdog wins Picture and Danny Boyle wins Director. To those people who say it is an average movie, i ask you to watch it again. Benjamin Button is not any better (though a good film). Apart from that I sincerely hope Sean Penn wins best actor (unbelievable performance). Think Kate will miss out through her own fault for being a little too greedy and Meryl's performance in doubt is i'm afraid to say far more powerful.
Heath is a lock and deservingly so, even if movie-goers do not appreciate the performance.
Slumdog to dominate (hopefully)
Rich:You are damn right man…it is written…hell ya…Slumdog gonna win……..
oh for pete's sake, give it to meryl streep, she lost 12 times already. if its the basis of past and present work, she has the overall advantage, those 12 noms and then doubt, she is an outstanding actress!
i love kate but meryl is really overdue, i would be really convinced if kate was nominated for rev. road but her role in the reader is a supporting role. people will remember streep's memorable role as sister aloysius better than kate's the reader. her facial expressions in doubt is powerful enough to win her the best actress award.
i have no doubt, it will be meryl for best actress. here is my predix:
best picture: MILK
best director: danny boyle – slumdog
best actor: sean penn-MILK
best actress: meryl stree- Doubt
best sup. actor: josh brolin- Milk
best sup. actress: viola davis- Doubt
That's all!
Brad,
I was really surprised at your Best Supp. Actress choice…Taraji P. Henson? Really? Not only do I not think she is the front-runner, personally I think she was a total waste of a nominee. The role had very little depth, and paled in comparison to the other nominated performances and not nominated (Rosemaire DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Hiam Abbass for The Visitor, Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married). I sincerely hope you're wrong about this one, because she was nothing more than adequate in the role (as was everyone else in that movie).
I hope Milk wins for Best Picture, upsetting the good-but-overrated Slumdog Millionaire. I would be OK with Danny Boyle winning director, though, he pieced the movie together quite well and compellingly.
As for the lead acting races, I hardly think they the "locks" you do. I hope Penn wins, but Rourke is a real competitor. As for Best Actress, the race is even tighter (and much stronger). Meryl and Kate both came away with the SAG for the movies they're nominated in, and both are long overdue for an Oscar. How can you call Winslet a lock? I actually do believe she will sneak in a win, but I think it's going to be extremely close. With those two locked at the top, I wouldn't be too surprised either if Anne Hathaway snuck in for an upset. All of the actresses this year were worthy of a nomination–it's the strongest year for actresses in a long, long time. Congratulations to them all, nominated and not nominated.
Ledger is, indeed, a lock to win the Oscar. I'd say Brolin may have edged him out for me personally, but there's no stopping Ledger and his performance was, indeed, great.
Care to explain your Taraji choice a little more? It's the only one that really threw me and that I truly disagree with.
Hey Danny-I agree with you…Taraji P.Henson really didnt had much to do……