Final Oscar Predictions and You Vote for the 2009 Winners!
COMMENTS
You know who's going to win, so why not tell us?
Best Adapted Screenplay
 Two films based on plays penned by the gentlemen that wrote the scripts for the plays. In my opinion that pretty much cancels out both Doubt and Frost/Nixon since the "adapting" portion of the requirement is hardly a task deserving of an award. The adaptation of Benjamin Button is really stretching the definition of "adaptation" leaving us with The Reader and Slumdog and in this case I will go with fan favorite and Writers Guild winner Slumdog Millionaire. Only seems logical.MY PICK: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire | Best Adapted Screenplay
Total Voters: 779  Loading ... |
Best Original Screenplay
 If you think screenwriting is all dialogue I want you to read the script for WALL•E right now (click here to download the .PDF version). While Milk appears to be the accepted front-runner in this category I think WALL•E is running a really close second and could potentially pull off a big surprise. People love to hail the script for In Bruges due to its wit and sarcasm (myself included) but the script for WALL•E manages to bring a robot with a VERY limited category to life and offers up an example of what great screenwriting really is. Milk is my prediction to win (snooze), but I would love to be wrong here. If you want to check out more scripts from 2008's award season click here as I have compiled many of them in one easy to find location.MY PICK: Dustin Lance Black, Milk | Best Original Screenplay
Total Voters: 768 Loading ... |
Best Film Editing
| I don't think the nominees competing against Slumdog Millionaire in this category really stand all that much of a chance. There is a kinetic energy and equally well-timed edits for emotional impact in Slumdog, which I believe are the number one cause the film became such a fan favorite. Of course I believe the best editing film of 2008 was the entirely ignored Ballast, but since it wasn't released by a major studio it doesn't get any Oscar love and unfortunate almost no chance for audience love. MY PICK: Slumdog Millionaire | Best Film Editing
Total Voters: 736 Loading ... |
Best Cinematography
| After the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) named Slumdog Millionaire with the award for Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography in Theatrical Releases I don't see much reason to argue. Of course, a case could be made for all five films nominated as each had a certain beauty to them. In my Oscar Prediction article for the category (read here) I mentioned how Stern's muted palette in Changeling was a perfect choice for that period piece and how Claudio Miranda's work in Ben Button was equally impressive. I also think Pfister's work in Dark Knight was incredibly beneficial to that feature and would say it is probably the most likely to offer up an upset over Slumdog. The one film I questioned was The Reader as many have felt the gorgeous work of Deakins and Menges was contradictory to the melancholy theme to the whole film. However, one commenter on the article said, "On of the most beautiful shots I've seen this year was in The Reader when young Michael visits the concentration camp and you see a close up of his hand grasp the barbed wire fence – stunning." Perhaps the Academy will agree, but my prediction remains with Mantle. MY PICK: Slumdog Millionaire | Best Cinematography
Total Voters: 739 Loading ... |
Best Art Direction
 I think this is a solid list of nominees as the production design work in all five was worthy of recognition regardless of how good I thought any of the films were. However, I am not a great judge when it comes to this and I will have to default to the Art Directors Guild that named Slumdog, Ben Button and Dark Knight as the best of 2008 and since Slumdog isn't nominated and since I was more impressed with the way The Dark Knight was photographed than I was with the production design I will go with Ben Button. I know, really scientific with some of these picks eh?MY PICK: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | Best Art Direction
Total Voters: 709 Loading ... |
Best Costume Design
 After Paramount Vantage saw the first cut of The Duchess and began brainstorming how to market it I can only imagine their only thought was to emphasize the costumes. The official site was dedicated to them, featurettes sprouted up everywhere and it began to seem as if the film was made purely to win the Best Costumes Oscar. I have no problems with that.MY PICK: The Duchess | Best Costume Design
Total Voters: 689 Loading ... |
Best Makeup
 This was a hard choice to make primarily because I believe so many people are going to be confused as to how much of Benjamin Button was make-up versus how much was special effects. Fact is, the majority of it was CGI and visual effects as you can see right here with Cate Blanchett as an older version of her character's self being the only drastic make-up work in the film. This isn't to say I don't think it is good work, I just think there was better. The work done for The Joker in The Dark Knight was good, but when it comes down to actual make-up work it is hard to compete with what was done in Hellboy 2. If anything that is a flawless film in presentation and the make-up in it was outstanding. My pick here is based on category requirements, but I worry confused voters may end up awarding Button in the end.MY PICK: Hellboy II: The Golden Army | Best Makeup
Total Voters: 717 Loading ... |
Best Original Score
 In my earlier prediction piece for this category I went with Defiance just because I love Howard's score. At the same time I also said this is the one category The Dark Knight was severely snubbed as that film is lessened by about 50% without Howard and Zimmer's searing score. Being that the case I am now predicting Thomas Newman's work in WALL•E for the same reason I believe it was wrong to snub the work in TDK. Without Newman's score WALL•E would have lost so much of its charm and it is truly a score that fits the piece even though it does have that familiar Newman sound to it. I worry Slumdog is going to take this one, and I say "worry" because that film hardly has a score — it has a soundtrack and a great one at that, but this is for score, not songs. The music we love in Slumdog comes from those killer tracks, not the limited notes in between, and even if Rahman's limited score were noticeable it doesn't add to the film the way Newman's does in WALL•E.MY PICK: Thomas Newman, WALL•E | Best Original Score
Total Voters: 716 Loading ... |
Best Original Song
| Fox Searchlight is pushing "Jai Ho" over "O Saya" and the songs in Slumdog Millionaire are one of its most talked about features. That makes this prediction pretty simple. MY PICK: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire | Best Original Song
Total Voters: 690 Loading ... |
Best Sound Editing
| This prediction should be simple as I believe WALL•E should carry both sound awards as Ben Burtt's work should not be overlooked. However, I have a feeling Sound Editing and Sound Mixing are going to be split between WALL•E and Slumdog Millionaire and if I had to guess in which way I would say Editing for the robot and Mixing for the kids. However, that is just a feeling I get so my prediction is sticking with WALL•E winning both. MY PICK: WALL•E | Best Sound Editing
Total Voters: 661 Loading ... |
Best Sound Mixing
| In case you didn't read the note above my prediction is for WALL•E to win both… roll your eyes upward for an even more detailed explanation or click here for my earlier prediction for the two Sound categories and an even larger explanation and conversation on the topic. MY PICK: WALL•E | Best Sound Mixing
Total Voters: 648 Loading ... |
Best Visual Effects
| As I mentioned in the Make-Up category, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was all effects which speaks for its reported $150 million budget and I really don't see anyway Fincher's team can go unrecognized in this category. MY PICK: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button | Best Visual Effects
Total Voters: 651 Loading ... |
Best Animated Film
| So Kung Fu Panda swept the Annies eh? Well guess what, the bear is losing to the robot on the 22nd. I have talked about WALL•E a lot throughout this piece, and for good reason, it is one of the better films of 2008 and should have been a contender for Best Picture if this were a more just world. However, it has to sit back and potentially become the second highest Oscar winner of the night. Even if it doesn't win the other categories I predict for it I will tell you right now this one is in the bag. MY PICK: WALL•E | Best Animated Film
Total Voters: 653 Loading ... |
Best Documentary
 There has been a little bit of late season chatter saying Man on Wire isn't the lock everyone thinks it is despite it being one of the best reviewed films of 2008. I haven't seen the complete documentary field so I don't have much more advice to give you other than the fact I still believe Man on Wire is going to win. If you would like to bet on a potential upset try Trouble the Water.MY PICK: Man on Wire | Best Documentary
Total Voters: 569 Loading ... |
Best Foreign Language Film
 If you want to read an interesting conversation regarding the Foreign Language Oscar race click here. Otherwise just check the box next to Waltz with Bashir and move along.MY PICK: Waltz with Bashir | Best Foreign Language Film
Total Voters: 581 Loading ... |
Based on my predictions the win totals would look like this:
- Slumdog Millionaire (6)
- WALL•E (4)
- Milk (2)
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2)
- The Duchess (1)
- The Dark Knight (1)
- Hellboy II: The Golden Army (1)
- Man on Wire (1)
- The Reader (1)
- Vicky Cristina Barcelona (1)
- Waltz with Bashir (1)
Slumdog could easily steal three of WALL•E's wins and Hellboy II: The Golden Army is a bit of a risky pick and it wouldn't surprise me to see The Dark Knight possibly pick up one extra win. Perhaps the most shocking thing is to think if Sean Penn does pull off the win in Best Actor it is likely The Wrestler will go home empty handed. Oh well, no one ever said the Oscars were perfect.
See you back here on Sunday for the 2009 Oscar Awards with live blogging and live winner updates!
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I'm wondering if TDK might take more awards than you're predicting, as the Academy's way of "making up" for it not being nominated for Best Picture. Last year "The Bourne Ultimatum" won Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Editing, despite being up against Ratatouille for the sound categories and the BP favorite for editing. I think the same might happen again this year.
i am sick and tired of TDK fans..Stop!It didn't deserve Best Picture and it didn't get it..Frost/Nixon deserves atleast 1 award but it looks that it's going to go home empty-handed..Really happy for Kate though she deserves that Oscar..
In reality Bruce Springsteen would've won that oscar hands down, no questions asked. I think it's completely stupid to exclude it just because it's in the credits. Very stupid
I wanted MILK to win but I guess they failed in campaigning! I will stick to my original prediction: SLUMDOG, Penn, Streep, Legder, Davis, Boyle! See you at the Oscars! It's one hell of a year for the movies! Hope it will be as interesting or more next year! In enjoyed all the performances and the movies!
I have a bet with a couple of colleagues that Wall-E will win more Oscars than Button-A Ruth Chris' steakhouse dinner is on the line. I see Wall-E winning at least 2 and upwards of 5. I think TDK will take some awards from Button in the categories wherein they are head to head.
I am not convinced with the best actor category Benicio del Toro had to be in there. His potrayal of Ernesto Guevara is much better than all of the nomenies Del Toro deserves the oscar.
I've gone to the Best Picture Showcase every year AMC has done it, and it's always a lot of fun. Last year, though, had to be one of the best lineups ever, IMO.
The win that would make me happiest is Rourke taking it home in lead actor.
I will be extremely disappointed, on the other hand, if Streep steals the lead actress statuette. No disrespect to her, as I think she's a wonderful actress, but all four of the other women are more deserving this year.
Traditionally the category that has had the most upsets is the best supporting actress category. I believe Cruz will win it but wouldn't it be great if Taraji P. Henson won it for Benjamin Button? No? Well, that's just because you don't stand to win about $1000 if she does.
Kate Winslet and Mickey Rourke (Sean Penn close 2nd).
Slumdog Millionaire best picture (outsider is MILK).
Heath Ledger and Viola Davis (great actress with less prices dan la Streep).
Best Supporting Actress usually goes to an actress that played a small part of the film 10 minutes max and makes that time work for her.
Viola Davis is going to get the Oscar.
i don't want penelope cruz to win. i think she's awful and it would be really underserving. I prefer Amy Adams, cute and great in doubt.
I think The Dark Knight has a good chance at winning a sound category or two, and the editing category. I'd love for it to win cinematography, especially after experiencing it on IMAX. Heath Ledger winning Best Supporting Actor is all that really matters, though. It's a shame the Academy didn't nominate the movie for it's writing, direction, and Best Picture.
I love the movies no matter what. I wish they could all win. I saw The Wrestler and Mickey Rourke should win because he is the best. Marisa is really good.Real life…..
BP:
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Milk
Dark Horse: Milk
BD:
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Dark Horse: Gus Van Sant or David Fincher
Best Actor:
Will Win: Sean Penn, Milk
Should win: Sean Penn, Milk
Dark Horse: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress:
Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should Win: Meryl Streep, Doubt
Dark Horse: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Best Supp. Actor:
Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Should Win: Josh Brolin, Milk
Dark Horse: Josh Brolin, Milk
Best Supp. Actress:
Will Win: Penelope Crúz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Should Win: Amy Adams, Doubt
Dark Horse: Viola Davis, Doubt
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Should Win: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Dark Horse: Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, WALL-E
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse: David Hare, The Reader
Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Waltz With Bashir
Should Win: The Class
Dark Horse: Departures
Best Documentary:
Will Win: Man On Wire
Should Win: Man On Wire
Dark Horse: Trouble The Water
Best Animated Feauture:
Will Win: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
Dark Horse: Kung Fu Panda