It's that time, I just finished watching the last film from 2011 I had time to watch before offering up my final 2012 Oscar predictions and I'm glad I did as it is now among my nominees whereas before it wasn't.
Tomorrow the 2012 Oscar nominations will be announced and many questions will be answered while new ones will sprout up. Most categories have their clear front-runners, but down near the bottom of each list the potential nominees became a bit hazy not to mention the technical categories where damn near anything can happen.
For Best Picture I batted around several possibilities after I got beyond the six films I feel are absolute locks and the idea of just how many films will the Academy end up nominating? This year there can be anywhere from five to ten nominees for Best Picture and we won't know how many there are until tomorrow's announcement. I've decided to go with eight. I'm 100% confident in my first six, but after that it's anyone's guess.
At the bottom of page two of this post I have included the total number of wins I am currently predicting for each movie as well as the number of total nominations I'm predicting per film. Should my list be 100% accurate (it's not) it would mean Martin Scoresese's Hugo would be the lead nomination getter with 14 followed close by The Artist with ten. As for total wins, The Artist has the edge over Hugo by one with four, but that all depends on just how accurate my predictions are.
I have included my predictions for 21 of the 23 categories that will be announced tomorrow, leaving out only the shorts categories as I have not seen enough of them to make a prediction. I have included a few thoughts for several of the categories below as well as a link to my full breakdown of contenders and rankings for each category.
I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments where you think I may be wrong and how you think the Academy will decide. So have at it and I'll see you back here tomorrow morning, bright and early at 5:30 AM PST with the 2012 Oscar nominations.
P.S. That last film I watched was the animated feature Wrinkles, which is devastating, but absolutely one of the best animated films I saw from 2011 and perhaps the best.
Best Picture (click here for full field and rankings)
- The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)
- The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)
- The Help (dir. Tate Taylor)
- Hugo (dir. Martin Scorsese)
- Midnight in Paris (dir. Woody Allen)
- Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)
- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (dir. David Fincher)
NOTES: As I said in the introduction, numbers 1-6 I am confident will be nominated and it very easily could end there. As for films outside of my nomination list above, the only film I believe stands a chance to be included that isn't listed above is The Tree of Life.
Best Actor (click here for full field and rankings)
- George Clooney (The Descendants)
- Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
- Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
- Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
NOTES: I'm happy to see a lot of my peers predicting Michael Fassbender for Shame, but I see a lot of them doing it by replacing Gary Oldman who has never been nominated for an Oscar. Neither has Fassbender, of course, but I just see the NC-17 rating for Shame and a potential to get Oldman a nomination at this stage in his career as reason enough to place Oldman above Fassbender.
Best Actress (click here for full field and rankings)
- Viola Davis (The Help)
- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
- Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
NOTES: The #1 outlier here is Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Charlize Theron (Young Adult) and Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) are also possibilities.
Best Supporting Actor (click here for full field and rankings)
- Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
- Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
- Albert Brooks (Drive)
- Nick Nolte (Warrior)
- Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
NOTES: I bumped Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) at the last minute for Jonah Hill and I'm not too distressed in the decision though I am beginning to wonder if Ben Kingsley (Hugo) may surprise us all and who would he replace? Nolte? Hill?
Best Supporting Actress (click here for full field and rankings)
- Octavia Spencer (The Help)
- Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
- Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)
- Jessica Chastain (The Help)
- Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
NOTES: Bridesmaids came on strong at the end of the year and I think McCarthy is going to get in there even though it was really hard to bump Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) from the list.
Best Director (click here for full field and rankings)
- Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
- Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
- Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
- David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
NOTES: My, my how War Horse has fallen as I couldn't even bring myself to include Steven Spielberg in my list of Best Director nominees though he remains my first runner up with the likes of Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Tate Taylor (The Help) and Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life). This is a category that could very easily offer a surprise that wouldn't necessarily be too surprising... that is, outside of Taylor getting a nom.
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I predict POtter to be at least nominated in a Art Direction, Visual effects, make up, sound mixing and editing.
I think there's a good chance Oldman and Fassbender will both be nominated at the expense of Di Caprio. But really they all have an equal chance to miss out.
And if Shailene Woodley isn't nominated but McCarthy is, that'll be just a goddamn shame.
That depends on whether or not the woman from The Artist is considered the lead actress. If she is both Melissa and Shailene could get in.
Weinstein has been pushing her as Supporting and I have a hard time believing the entire Academy isn't fully aware at this point.
If she's the supporting actress, who's the lead actress John Goodman? That's what i sense the academy might be thinking. Common sense prevails right?
A film doesn't need to have a lead actor or a lead actress or either for that matter. Bejo is in the supporting category, that's just how it is. Sorry if that bothers you.
I just don't see McCarthy scoring a nom.
I personally don't see McTeer getting nominated. Wouldn't it be funny if Mia Wasikowska got that nod instead?
Davis had a supporting role for The Help, it was Spencer’s film from start to finish. I’d go for Streep simply for making a stupendous movie memorable by her performance alone. Besides, nothing Davis had done in The Help could compare to her remarkable turn in Doubt.
Would I be stupid to predict Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2, Transformers: Dark or the Moon and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides as potential winners?
Every billion dollar film prior to those 3 have all won at least 1 Oscar.
Why don't you think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will be nominated for best picture?
Do all those ELEC shut outs mean anything?
Here's why:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/extremely_loud_and_incredibly_close
Probably because no professional guild has done so and those are pretty much the groups that make up the Academy so there's not reason to believe it will either.
Because it was extremely bad and incredibly boring.
It will be a shame if Fassbender isn't nominated over DiCaprio... see what I did there? Anyways, I hope Woodley gets a nomination, because, for me, her performance allowed us to truly appreciate how restrained Clooney's performance was.
My goodness! What a bad year for movies! Hope David Fincher gets the Best Director Oscar. At least something good will happen if he gets it.
I would be more supportive of Mara if she could lighten up and smile. I'm really really really really hoping the ingenue spot goes to Olsen. And Swinton could get replaced by Theron. All three are in critically acclaimed but extremely polarizing films.
Better luck next year with Lincoln, Steven. same to you Leo with your two films
I've just realised that I just have no enthusiasm for this year's race.
Not because of anger or frustration or fanboyism over what won't be nominated 'but should be' but really seeing this all together just makes me realise how dispassionately I feel about almost all of them in terms of being nominated and/or winning. At least I felt something about SOME of last years crop. But predominantly speaking, this year.........nada.
I'm not even that desperate to see the ones I haven't yet seen. Maybe next year will offer something more interesting.
What a weak year
Really hope 50/50 gets more than one nom
nothing for Ides of March?
I think Ides of March deserves a Best Adapted Screenplay nom at the very least.
Great effort. I can't find much to disagree with except I think Rooney Mara will get a nom - probably over Glenn Close.
And I am blindly hoping Drive can maybe sneak a Best Picture nomination, but even that hope seems nearly over now!
Anyone else wish Helen McCrory would get nominated in Supporting Actress for Hugo? I though she was absolutely fantastic.
I thik it would be nice if Harry Potter was nominated for at least one large category, and won a smaller one (ie. cinematography). With Lord of the Rings, The Return of the King, the oscar was almost a tribute to the entire trilogy, and I think that Potter should at least get some tribute, seeing as there are eight extremely well made movies in the franchise. Plus the fans will go insane if the series doesn't win at least one oscar.
The Harry Potter movies are not in the same class as the Lord of the Rings movies.
And I don't think a sizeable percentage of Harry Potter fans care at all whether it wins an Oscar.
It wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong, but I expect Pirates to get a visual effects nomination. The mermaid capture sequence was one of the most impressive displays of visual effects I've ever seen.
Easy Fix: Knock out Leo for Fassbender
Awesome job with this, Brad. I always love checking out all your updates!
my predix for tomorrow guys:
BEST PICTURE
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
THE HELP
HUGO
THE TREE OF LIFE
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
BEST ACTOR
GEORGE CLOONEY-THE DESCENDANTS
LEONARDO DI CAPRIO-J.EDGAR
JEAN DUJARDIN-THE ARTIST
MICHAEL FASSBENDER-SHAME
BRAD PITT-MONEYBALL
BEST ACTRESS
VIOLA DAVIS-THE HELP
ROONEY MARA-THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
MERYL STREEP-THE IRON LADY
TILDA SWINTON-WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
MICHELLE WILLIAMS-MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
KENNETH BRANAGH-MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
ALBERT BROOKS-DRIVE
JONAH HILL-MONEYBALL
NICK NOLTE-WARRIOR
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER-BEGINNERS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BERENICE BEJO-THE ARTIST
JESSICA CHASTAIN-THE HELP
JANET MCTEER-ALBERT NOBBS
OCTAVIA SPENCER-THE HELP
SHAILNE WOODLEY-THE DESCENDANTS
BEST DIRECTOR
WOODY ALLEN-MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
DAVID FINCHER-THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
MICHAEL HAZANAVICIUS-THE ARTIST
ALEXANDER PAYNE-THE DESCENDANTS
MARTIN SCORSESE-HUGO
You think they'll nominate McTeer and not Close? Are you NUTS? It's HER FILM and PET PROJECT!!
yeah, so was Girl Interrupted for Winona Ryder and she didnt even get a nomination, Angelina ended up stealing the film and winning in the suppoerting actress category, i personally believe Close´s performance was mediocre, Rooney Mara gave a hugely better and impressive performance and she certainly deserves a nom, although she is not a lock
Well, Close was pretty average in her performance regardless if it was her pet project and if she turned into a man. She really wasn't that good. McTeer out performed her by miles. So I can see that happen. If Close is nominated I will fly to Hollywood and punch someone in the face.
Would love to see Fassbender supplant DiCaprio in Best Actor.
And I want Bill Cunningham to win best doc. The others are quite lame and it sucks that stronger docs were not allowed in.
I'm agree 5/5 with you when it comes to Best Pic (well, 8/8), Actress (although I wish they would go Mara instead of Close), Supporting Actor and Director.
I chose Woodley instead of McCarthy but I'm hoping they would ditch McTeer and Carey Mulligan would be in. Fassbender over Oldman. Sorry but he was that good! I didn't appreciated Shame in all but both leads were great.
I also chose Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy over Dragon Tattoo in Adapted and A Separation over Win Win in Original screenplay.
All in all The Artist will get 12 nominations, Hugo ten, War Horse and The Help seven each and Moneyball, The Descendants and The Girl with a Dragon Tattoo five each.
Surprises I'd like to see:
- Both Fassbender & Oldman nominated for Best Actor
- Andy Serkis nominated for Best Supporting Actor
- Rooney Mara nominated alongside Tilda Swinton and Elizabeth Olsen for Best Actress
- Lynne Ramsay nominated for Best Director
Mines:
BEST PICTURE -- FIRST CHOICE The Artist
BEST PICTURE -- SECOND CHOICE The Descendants
BEST PICTURE -- THIRD CHOICE Hugo
BEST PICTURE -- FOURTH CHOICE The Help
BEST PICTURE -- FIFTH CHOICE Moneyball
BEST PICTURE -- SIXTH CHOICE Midnight in Paris
BEST PICTURE -- SEVENTH CHOICE War Horse
BEST PICTURE -- EIGHTH CHOICE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
BEST PICTURE -- NINTH CHOICE Drive
BEST PICTURE -- TENTH CHOICE Bridesmaids
Best Director - CHOOSE ONE Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Director - CHOOSE ONE Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Director - CHOOSE ONE Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Best Director - CHOOSE ONE Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Best Director - CHOOSE ONE David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Viola Davis, The Help
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
Best Supporting Actor Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actor Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actor Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Best Supporting Actor Nick Nolte, Warrior
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Octavia Spencer, The Help
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Jessica Chastain, The Help
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Screenplay - Original - CHOOSE ONE Midnight in Paris
Screenplay - Original - CHOOSE ONE The Artist
Screenplay - Original - CHOOSE ONE 50/50
Screenplay - Original - CHOOSE ONE Young Adult
Screenplay - Original - CHOOSE ONE Win Win
Screenplay - Adapted - CHOOSE ONE Moneyball
Screenplay - Adapted - CHOOSE ONE The Descendants
Screenplay - Adapted - CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Screenplay - Adapted - CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Screenplay - Adapted - CHOOSE ONE The Help
Editing - CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Editing - CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Editing - CHOOSE ONE The Artist
Editing - CHOOSE ONE The Descendants
Editing - CHOOSE ONE War Horse
Cinematography -- CHOOSE ONE Tree of Life
Cinematography -- CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Cinematography -- CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Cinematography -- CHOOSE ONE The Artist
Cinematography -- CHOOSE ONE War Horse