Oscar Predictions

Final 2014 Oscar Predictions: Our Picks and Your Turn to Vote!

Here are my picks and your turn to vote on the winners

2014 Oscar Nominations
Photo: AMPAS
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It seems like the Oscars take forever to arrive, but when they do it's almost as if you aren't prepared. I offered up my first Best Picture predictions almost a year ago exactly, and by the looks of it predicting that early doesn't result in very accurate results as I only had three of the eventual nominees on the list and two films didn't even end up released in 2013.

Oh well, it's all part of the fun. We watch, we scrutinize, we judge, and sooner or later it all becomes quite clear which films and performances will be rising to the top in each category. We discuss the last two nomination slots and we bicker over the #1 line, not because we necessarily feel one film or performance is better than another in its respective category, but because we want to get it RIGHT! That said, I will now attempt to do just that as I offer up my final 2014 Oscar predictions.

Will it be 12 Years a Slave, Gravity or American Hustle taking Best Picture? Can anyone knock Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) off the #1 slot for Best Actor. Will it be Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) or Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) winning Best Supporting Actress?

Which film will walk away with the most awards? Doesn't winning Best Film Editing mean a film is also likely to win Best Picture? Will there be a Best Picture and Best Director split? After all, of the 85 films that have won Best Picture, 62 also won Best Director. So many questions... I'll do my best to offer up my answers, but at the same time you will be voting on each category as well. Let's get started and see how things shape out...

Best Picture

MY PICK: 12 Years a Slave

12 Years a SlaveIt seems almost anti-climactic to get one of the most debated awards out of the way this quickly because it's not like recent years where Argo, The Artist and The King's Speech seemed the obvious winners heading into the night. We've debated whether it would be 12 Years a Slave, Gravity or American Hustle for months now and I'm sticking with 12 Years, despite reports some Academy members say they won't watch it and the rising support for Gravity.

Reason could be given for why any of the top three contenders might win, but I'll just lay this on gut instinct and hope for the best.

Best Picture

  • 12 Years a Slave (583 Votes)
  • Gravity (245 Votes)
  • American Hustle (76 Votes)
  • The Wolf of Wall Street (32 Votes)
  • Her (22 Votes)
  • Dallas Buyers Club (13 Votes)
  • Nebraska (6 Votes)
  • Philomena (5 Votes)
  • Captain Phillips (4 Votes)

Total Voters: 986

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Best Actor

MY PICK: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Matthew McConaugheyThere's a chance for an upset here, however slim it may be, but Chiwetel Ejiofor may find his name called, but he's the only one I'd say has any possibility of edging out McConaughey and his chances have got to be somewhere between slim and none.

Best Actor

  • Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) (595 Votes)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) (217 Votes)
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) (112 Votes)
  • Bruce Dern (Nebraska) (21 Votes)
  • Christian Bale (American Hustle) (19 Votes)

Total Voters: 961

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Best Actress

MY PICK: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Cate BlanchettThere are a few locks in the below-the-line categories, but this is probably the biggest lock on the board. There was some chatter about how Blanchett might not win after the Woody Allen saga heated up recently, but there was never any real doubt.

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) (770 Votes)
  • Amy Adams (American Hustle) (66 Votes)
  • Sandra Bullock (Gravity) (51 Votes)
  • Judi Dench (Philomena) (20 Votes)
  • Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) (11 Votes)

Total Voters: 918

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Best Supporting Actor

MY PICK: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Jared LetoLeto is another strong lock, though if you listened to the podcast this morning you heard Kevin predict Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips). I don't agree with that pick at all as I don't think there is any chance Leto loses, but what do you think?

Best Supporting Actor

  • Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) (717 Votes)
  • Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) (77 Votes)
  • Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) (47 Votes)
  • Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) (33 Votes)
  • Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) (31 Votes)

Total Voters: 905

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Best Supporting Actress

MY PICK: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)

Lupita Nyong'oA difficult category to predict, especially since your leanings in other categories may affect it. I wonder, can you predict Gravity to win Best Picture and still think Nyong'o will win Best Supporting Actress? Does the Academy work in such a way where they can divide their allegiances so willy nilly? I think we all know they can and perhaps that's a good thing, but I also have a hard time seeing Jennifer Lawrence winning two years in a row.

I will say this, however, of all the acting categories I'd say this is the one with the most potential for a spoiler. As Nyong'o and Lawrence battle it out I can just imagine June Squibb taking home the win.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) (577 Votes)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) (284 Votes)
  • June Squibb (Nebraska) (33 Votes)
  • Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) (23 Votes)
  • Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) (12 Votes)

Total Voters: 929

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  • Myskina

    12 years a slave >>>>> Gravity, etc etc

  • andyluvsfilms

    It was so agonizing choosing the Best Foreign Language, i'd hate to do it for real, I went with The Great Beauty even though The Hunt was my #1for last year, i think the former has the momentum.
    The only main category i am less than excited about is Best Supporting Male, I only chose Jared Leto because of the weight loss and make up, there isn't a clear winner here for me.

  • http://cineenuruguay.com/ Driver

    Last year I think I got almost 20, this year is looking quite though to get there.

  • PJ Edwards

    American Hustle isn't the type of film to win editing and nothing else

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Okay

  • yao21

    I agree with most of them.. I can see U2 winning Best Song and i really hope Her beats AH in original screenplay.

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    If I had it my way, a lot of your early predictions would have been nominated.

  • dslacker

    It's far more interesting to hear what people WANT to win than what they THINK will win.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Then just click here. Not sure why you would read an article headlined predictions if that's not what you wanted.

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    Will say it again - my night will be completely MADE is DiCaprio wins.

    I generally agreed with most of Brad's picks.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

    I hope the prediction for 12 Years a Slave winning best picture is correct. I can't help but have a nagging suspicion that Gravity or American Hustle are somehow going to take the prize home.

    • yrabadi

      I kept thinking Dallas had a shot, but obviously I'm way off.

  • http://burt-oscars.blogspot.com Burt Mizaki

    Gee you're so right, this season is so boring, and yet as we come closer to the Oscars I feel as if I'm not prepared with the predictions :/ The two that really make me nervous are Costume (Im deciding between Hustle and 12 Years) and Priduction Design (Gatsby or 12 Years)

  • Josh McLaughlin

    Everything else I have predicted seems to be set in stone as films that "have" to win, but if I was picking based on my actual personal favorites, I would trade out Matthew McConaughey for Chiwetel Ejiofor for the Best Actor category. He did an incredible job in "12 Years a Slave!"

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Winchester/ Winchester

    I guess the Editing Award this year could be a case where it might not correlate to Best Picture unless 'Gravity' wins.

    I think I would agree with a lot of those picks, the only places where I would differ is I went for Lawrence for Best Supporting Actress (which I think would be a mistake if it happens but the world still turns), I think 'American Hustle' might get the Original Screenplay win (instead of Editing for it's 'thanks for being here award) and when we get to the smaller categories then I haven't seen the contenders anyway so it would be pure random luck if I chose correctly. And I think Editing could go to 'Captain Phillips'.

    There's no real science to where I chose differently though so I don't expect to be proven right.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ArthurCarlson/ Arthur Carlson

    I predicted 12 Years to win Best Picture, as well as Best Sup Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, but it's hard to imagine a film winning so few awards taking Best Picture. Gravity seems to be the one that's going to run away with everything, but then miss Best Picture. It's hard to believe, though it certainly happens quite a bit.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Chris138/ Chris138

      It is kind of unusual but not impossible. A couple of examples of such a scenario playing out are when Cabaret won 8 Oscars (including best director) and The Godfather won 3 (including best picture), as well as Star Wars taking home 6 Oscars (basically all of the technical awards) and Annie Hall winning 4 (including best director and best picture).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/azjoker1/ azjoker1

    Best Picture

    Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
    Who Should Win: Her/Gravity

    I thought 12 Years a Slave was a fantastic movie but I would have to put Gravity a little bit above it. I would love for Her to win but that's not happening.

    Best Actor

    Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
    Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

    I think Matthew McConaughey should win if DiCaprio doesn't take it home. I just feel like the man deserves an Oscar and he put up a magnificent performance on top of it.

    Best Actress

    Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
    Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett

    Before I saw Blue Jasmine, I thought that Blanchett was likely being overrated. I was completely wrong. She 100% deserves to win. Sandra Bullock would be 2nd for me.

    Best Supporting Actor

    Who Will Win: Jared Leto
    Who Should Win: Jared Leto

    Leto was fantastic in this role and he was heartbreaking to watch. He should win. I would love to see Barkhad Abdi pull out an upset though but it won't happen.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Who Will Win: Lupita N'yongo
    Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence

    N'yongo was fantastic but I thought Lawrence stole American Hustle. It was tough to make a decision but I think Lawrence was a bit better, just because she had more to do in the film.

  • http://mattrisnes.blogspot.com/ Matt Risnes

    The Academy awards are such a joke. I do acknowledge the fun in predicting and pontificating their outcome however and Brad is as good as anyone in this respect. The last film to win best picture that's been discussed or appreciated whatsoever after the night it was crowned is No Country and that was 7 years ago.

    As a horror fan, the Oscars are about as backwards and stupid as it gets. I love how every year they hand out the best makeup award to some doorstop prestige piece of garbage like Dallas Buyers Club for affixing a fake nose or slathering on some pancake makeup to denote sickness. Take a look at a gallery of Wayne Toth's stunning work from Lords of Salem or some of the stomach turning, uncomfortably realistic work on the Maniac remake. Whatever one thinks of the content of films such as these, there's no arguing how much more dazzling the special effects makeup is and how much more varied and intricate the skill set of the artists applying it is.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      "I love how every year they hand out the best makeup award to some
      doorstop prestige piece of garbage like Dallas Buyers Club for affixing a
      fake nose or slathering on some pancake makeup to denote sickness."

      Someone was talking about this exact thing at a recent screening, suggesting Evil Dead should have been nominated. It's unfortunate considering it's just one more thing that reinforces the use of CG instead of practical effects. If any genre exhibits the benefit of practical over CG it's horror.

  • michaeldal65

    I know its a long shot but it might be a good thing to remember that Allen is famous for directing actresses to supporting statuettes. I watched BLUE JASMINE again the other day and Hawkins is very, very good.

  • http://letterboxd.com/jchastained/ JessicaChastained

    I keep chopping and changing between Hustle and Gatsby in Production and Costumes. Gatsby is definitely the flashiest of the lot, but all I've seen is the costumes in Hustle being talked about. It'll be a very close call!

  • http://www.silverscreenriot.com SmartFilm

    Very solid picks that hue very closely to what I'm thinking. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that everything is gonna change Sunday. I don't know why but seeing American Hustle sneak in a lot more wins and 12 Years being essentially shut out wouldn't surprise me.

    In other news, for anyone interested, I'm hosting a little Oscar Prediction Contest where you stand a chance to win a copy of the Best Picture winner on BluRay/DVD. Enter here! http://bit.ly/1mBRxRm

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/garb0815/ garb0815

    I have 3 picks different from you. The Voorman Problem, The Hunt and Gravity for best editing. Other than that we have the same picks. Last year I went 21 out of 24. I agree it may be a little harder getting 20 this year. I think it will be a good award show either way. Good luck Brad.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/garb0815/ garb0815

    By the way, the two picks I would be glad to see win although I'm not picking them are "Happy" for best original song and Roger Deakins for cinematography. Roger has always been one of my favorite cinematographers since Shawshank came out. It would be nice to see him win eventually. And I've always loved Pharrell's music. It would be cool to see him win. Just my opinion.

  • http://timeforafilm.com/ Alex Thomas

    We only have a few categories different. I think 20 Feet From Stardom will win as well and while I can't split Supporting Actress, I'm playing it sligtly safe and going for Lupita. As for the different ones:

    Original Screenplay: American Hustle
    It's 50/50 and I'm tipping Hustle, purely based on the demographic of the Academy.

    Editing: Gravity
    It's that or Captain Phillips (sorry Brad!) and again I'm playing it safe.

    Costume Design: The Great Gatsby
    Tipping Gatsby in this and Production Design.

    Best Live Action Short: The Voorman Problem
    In the betting odds, this is favourite and you seemed to like it as well, so that's enough for me!

    Hope I can get 20/24 again or even go 1 better! Thanks for the great coverage all year round of all the awards!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Art/ Art

    Here are my predictions. Predicting 21 categories. Have not seen any Documentaries, Documentary shorts, or Live action shorts.

    Best Pic: 12 Years a Slave
    Best Director: Alfonso Cauron (Gravity)
    Best Actor: Mattew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
    Best Actress: Cate Blachett (Blue Jasmine)
    Best Supporting Actor: Jared Letto (Dallas Buyers Club)
    Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'O
    Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze (Her)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
    Best Animated Feature: Frozen
    Best Foreign Film: The Great Beauty
    Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
    Best Cinematography: Gravity
    Best Costume Design:The Great Gatsby
    Best Editing: Gravity
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
    Best Score: Gravity
    Best Song: Let it Go (Frozen)
    Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
    Best Sound Editing: Gravity
    Best Visual Effects: Gravity
    Best Animated Short: Get a Horse

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Chris/ Chris

    As good as 12 Years a Slave was, I haven't really thought about it or discussed it much with my film friends. Wolf, Gravity, and Her are the films that will be remembered.
    Want to see Gravity win since it was so technically inventive, but Her was the best and The Wolf of Wa Street was the most fun and probably my favorite. 12 Years isn't even in my top 10.

  • http://hauntedbyhumans.wordpress.com J.R.Meehl
    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I wish you would add a little to the conversation while also attempting to promote your own website.

  • TheOneWhoKnocks

    Starting to get really tired of the GRAVITY hate.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Podolski/ Podolski

    I wanted to vote for Inside Llewyn Davis in so many categories like picture, director, screenplay, and actor... Was Please Mr. Kennedy not eligible for Best Original song?