Photo: Universal Pictures / Focus Features
I am finally getting to work on my "Contenders" section for the upcoming 2013 Oscars and while I already did a preliminary look at the Best Picture category, I will be exploring even those films again before opening the door on a new season of predictions. That said, I am beginning today with the Best Actor category and I'm asking you to help in adding any performances you think should seriously be taken into consideration once the first round of predictions are made.
This year I've decided I'm not going to include any more than 20 names in any category at any time, and at this point I have 21 performances already under consideration based on my list below. Question is, which one should go and do you have any names you believe I've seriously overlooked.
If I were to make an early list of likely nominees based on the names below it would probably look like this (in alphabetical order):
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- John Hawkes (The Surrogate)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
A hard name name to leave off that list is Terrence Stamp who will have the Weinstein Co. backing him for Song for Marion. It would also mark Stamp's first nomination since his one and only nomination in 1963 for the very excellent Billy Budd. But as hard as it is to leave him off, it would be harder to skip over Philip Seymour Hoffman in Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master.
Other "just missed" contenders include Jamie Foxx in Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained and I'm not sure what to expect from Baz Luhrmann's 3-D adventure with The Great Gatsby, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
Then there's Tom Hardy with the newly retitled Lawless and Brad Pitt with the unfortunately retitled Killing Them Softly, which will likely end up the actor's second worthy turn with director Andrew Dominik to be overlooked.
Question marks include Oscar Isaac in the Coen brothers' Inside Llewlyn Davis, Joseph Gordon-Levitt in Rian Johnson's Looper and Ryan Gosling is re-teaming with his Drive and Blue Valentine helmers this year. He was overlooked before, but will he be this time?
And how about Robert Pattinson in David Cronenberg's Cosmopolis? It's likely to hit the Cannes Film Festival and if it sticks and a distributor such as Weinstein or Fox Searchlight picks it up... look out. The days of sparkling vampires may be in Pattinson's past by the end of 2012.
I'm not counting on Terrence Malick's The Burial until it has a distributor and an actual release date so for now Ben Affleck's only film on the board is Argo and it will be interesting to see what we get with David O. Russell's The Silver Linings Playbook. Russell's last film did very well in the acting department, but can he get People's Sexiest Man Alive an Oscar nom?
With that, check out my early list below and tell me what you think. Who am I missing that should be considered? Who on this list doesn't stand a chance? I'll explore the rest of the above-the-line categories soon enough and hopefully by the end of the month we'll have a full batch of early predictions ready to role, just before this year's Cannes Film Festival.
- Ben Affleck (Argo)
- Bradley Cooper (The Silver Linings Playbook)
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby) *
- Clint Eastwood (Trouble With The Curve)
- Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Looper)
- Ryan Gosling (Only God Forgives)
- Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond The Pines)
- Tom Hardy (Lawless)
- John Hawkes (The Surrogate)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
- Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewlyn Davis)
- Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
- Tobey Maguire (The Great Gatsby)
- Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
- Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
- Robert Pattinson (Cosmopolis)
- Robert Redford (The Company You Keep)
- Terrence Stamp (Song for Marion)
- Denzel Washington (Flight)
* Could be considered (and most likely will be) a supporting role.
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Don't you think it's a bit too early to predict this sort of thing? For all we may know something will come out of nowhere in mid November-time (That's what normally happens right?). Either that or a 2013 film tries to get a qualifying run at the last minute.
No, I don't. Not at all. The best time to predict something is before it happens not waiting until the last minute... that's called posting the results.
It's not early at all
What I meant to say was that it would be better to do this sort of thing around 6 or 7 months time rather than now.
Nah, now works fine.
Fair point. However I could only come up with one bold prediction at this stage in the game:
Best Animated Feature: The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists aka The Pirates! Band of Misfits.
If this was October not April I would probably come up with more bold predictions. But for the moment it's just the one.
what about Joaquin Phoenix? or is he just support for the master?
I am guessing support.
I've heard he's a supporting and a leading role from different sources. Either way I'm looking forward to seeing Joaquin in this movie.
I really just have to hold off a bit and start to see some these films before starting to form an opinion.
Sure, some seem default picks based on what we know of the projects but the performances are unseen so far. I'll need to wait a few more months to start getting into that vibe.
What about Ian McKellan and/or Martin Freeman in The Hobbit, Russel Crowe as Javert in Les Miserables, and What is George Clooney going to have out, he's been a recent contender?
Clooney has Gravity, but I think he'll be supporting in that one. Freeman is a good thought and I'm sure McKellan will be supporting in The Hobbit and I'm thinking the same for Crowe in Les Mis.
George Clooney is definitely supporting in Gravity. The character is probably in only about 20 minutes of the entire film.
I think .. the actor to beat this year has to be ..Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln .. the biggest threat to Lewis is he himself .. as he has already won Best Actor twice ... taking tht into account Academy might jump on the opportunity to reward Bill Murray .. but I seriously doubt if the film will be as good !!
In Supporting category Leonardo for Django Unchained has to be the front-runner .. I am expecting his role to be on the lines of Waltz in Inglorious Bastards !!
Besides DiCaprio, the only other front-runner for supporting will hopefully be Tom Hardy as Bane. I don't think there will be anything wrong with the voice in the end, he'll be as terrific as Heath Ledger I'm sure.
Leo's role isn't as big as we are led to believe. In fact, Samuel L. Jackson and Christoph Waltz are more likely. I see the two presidents as front runners with Hugh Jackman as a dark horse
Take Tobey out
Why do you think DiCaprio will be supporting for Gatsby (since it's lead role and title character) and wouldn't Maguire be supporting instead of leading?
Maguire is the lead in the novel and will likely be the same in the movie.
Who's the actor in the middle of the picture? Looks sooo familiar!
Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables I think.
Denzel in Flight might be 2013.
I am assuming that Inside Llewyn Davis will be 2013, but other than that I agree with your top 5 Brad, with Jamie Foxx a close 6th.
I also noticed that they pushed up One Shot from February to December. Do you think Tom Cruise could possibly be considered, I know what most of you are going to say, but from what I've heard at least from the source material that One Shot is more Bourne than Mission: Impossible.
You left out on the road that movie is going places,just wait and see,it has a wonderful cast and a great director and good producers,Don't count it out yet..Peace and Prayers to you Rob and Kristen and you families too and also all of you animals...Keep each other safe and watch each other's back...Peace..Karen E..Happy Easter to you all.
For Lawless, I believe Shia Labeouf is more of the Lead in that film. So maybe him but Hardy def. has a shot too.
LaBeouf for The Company You Keep as well.
When has Daniel-Day Lewis done anything but sensational work. I think he could actually set a record for three Best Actor Awards with his Lincoln portrayal. He and Katherine Hepburn would each hold three Awards for Best Actor and Actress. I don't think he will be nominated but it would be nice if we receive a great performance out of Robert Pattinson for Cosmopolis and see David Cronenberg return to his roots. I would like to see Ryan get nominated for being passed up this year. It is blasphemy that he was not nominated, shameful.
I couldn't agree more, Ryan should have been nominated, he's now been snubbed two years in a row -- blue valentine in 2010 and three movies in 2011....
I believe Katharine Hepburn has 4 Best Actress awards. Morning Glory, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, The Lion in Winter, and On Golden Pond. The third was a tie with Barbra Streisand for Funny Girl, but I'm sure it still counts.
Thanks Sandman for the correction, you are absolutely correct. It would be intersting to see if Daniel Day-Lewis would be able to set a record for the Best Actor category. The academy loves to give out Oscars for biographical performances. I would however, like to see fresh and not so fresh faces win for this category.
Jesus, Sadman, sorry for spelling your name wrong. I am a blooming mess this morning, need coffee, my apologies.
Why can't there be a year where the long deserved Leonardo DiCaprio is the front runner and I hope that the great gatsby does it.
If Di Caprio delivers in Django Unchained, he'll have a good chance to win his first Oscar for that role. Although it would be unusual since it's very much a supporting role, and Di Caprio is one of the biggest movie stars in the world, you'd think he'd only be gunning for Best Actor awards at this point.
You forgot Sam Riley for On the Road, I'm hearing good things about that movie.
Best Picture? OK. But best Actor? Seriously, we haven't even seen a minute of these performances. How do you know they're good, just because they're good (or less good, Pattinson) actors?
That's why it's called predicting. Lighten up and have some fun.
Look who is the producer or distributor of those movies and you will see why author picked them out.Brevet did smart comment about Cosmopolis;if Weinsteins will take this movie in distribution I bet Cronenberg will get his fist Oscar nomination for the best director.And Robert Pattinson is too young for nomination in a leading role, no matter how good his performance could be.
ITA, it would be nice to finally see recognition for Cronenberg. If Robert delivers the goods, I could possibly see him receiving an Independent Spirit Award nomination but I do not forsee him receiving a Best Actor nomination from the Academy.
Yeah, I think DDL, Hoffman and Hawkes are incredibly likely (though certainly not guaranteed) to get in, and then it will be between Murray, Foxx, Jackman and Isaac for the remaining two spots. At this point we need to keep an eye on Cannes - two Best Actor nominees from the past two years (Bardem and Dujardin) won the same award there, we'll see how much buzz is there for any lead performances this year.
The buzzworty performances always come from Cannes. Christoph Waltz in Basterds, and she didn't get nominated but deserved to be, Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia for Best Actress.
And kudos to Oscar Isaac. He's a young actor I've been gaining a lot of respect for. In films like Robin Hood, Sucker Punch and Drive, he's always turning in impressive performances, so I was thrilled the Coens chose him for Inside Llewyn Davis.
Ryan Gosling isn't lead in Place beyond the Pines. Bradley Cooper is. Gosling doesn't have much screen time.
Nice list. Hopefully it'll be a great year for film.
Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings or Place Beyond the Pines. He has the push factor. Tom Hardy for lead or support. Ryan Gosling doesn't play the game. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is killing on Broadway and a favorite among Oscar voters. Daniel Day Lewis is the one to beat. I think supporting actor may be stronger than leading actor this go around.
Great list. Pleasantly surprised to see Pattinson on here. He's a great actor. Twilight wasn't much to work with. Same with Stewart.
I dig the predictions.
But J.Edgar falling about 10 miles away from where people were thinking it a few months earlier has me taking a "wait and see" attitude.
I'm still getting behind Noomi Rapace for Best actress in Prometheus tho :)
Altho there is no doubt in my mind Daniel Day-Lewis will be nominated. Lincoln would have to be a total disastor for him not to be.
ROBERT PATTINSON ?
are you kidding me ?
You make very good points. Thanks for adding so much to the conversation.
Robert Pattinson deserves the regignition he will get for Cosmopolis. Ghazal are you saying that just because its not cool to like him or are you basing it on his actual acting talent. He does have acting talent.
Rob is talented artist
i don't know if weinstein will pick up a cronenberg movie. cronenberg said in an interview that he doesn't play the oscar game, and talked about how the weinstein’s are famous for spending millions of dollars to get the oscar. made me respect him even more after saying that. i don't see pattinson. he is still so young and new to the game, but if he keeps sticking to buzz worthy films like cosmopolis, then yeah one day. he has to fight to shed the twilight stigma off of him first. cronenberg though is long overdue for recognition by the academy.
What about the following:
Josh Brolin - Oldboy (if it in fact comes out in 2012.
Daniel Craig - Skyfall (Sam Mendes is a terrific person director!)
Ed Norton - Animal Kingdom
Andrew Garfield - The Amazing-Spider Man
Jeremy Renner - The Bourne Legacy
John Travolta or Ben Foster - Gotti: In the Shadow of My Father
James McAvoy - Trance (it's already in post-production)
Josh Brolin - The Gangster Squad
RE James McAvoy: Trance is not scheduled for release until 2013. But I would certainly consider him for the adaptaion of Irvine Welsh's Filth.
Garfield was robbed for Social Network and deserves any future Oscar nomination. Unless he really knocks it out of the park, I wouldn't expect him to be nominated for Spider-Man. Same for Craig as Bond, who also deserved a nomination last year for Dragon Tattoo. Christian Bale for Batman on the other hand, that would be a real treat!
Cannot argue with any on the list...if Pattinson is nominated that would be unusual, guys his age aren't nominated usually. Seems like you have to be 30 to be nominated for best actor.
If Mickey Rourke biopic of Thomas Grath comes out this year I think he might have a chance.
And Michael Shonnon for Iceman that'll be nice.
Cronenberg is way over due for Oscar nod or Oscar. He should have been recogize for films like Dead Ringer, A History of Violence(my favorite Cronenberg film) and Eastern Promises. But if he gets a Oscar nod for Cosmopolis it'd be f-king great... We'll see though.
Really tought to say, so we better stay tunned till next month for Cannes
I wouldn't assume Day-Lewis will win Best Actor for Lincoln. It is very difficult to win three Oscars. I think the Academy will make Day-Lewis wait until later in his career to award him a third Oscar.
When are we getting Picture and Actress predictiions?
Soon, got a lot I've been doing over here... Actress is planned for this week and hopefully tomorrow.
What's Michael Fassbender up to? He was robbed last year for Shame, I would be surprised if he finds himself nominated this year. I can't remember when Twelve Years A Slave comes out, may not be until next year, but who knows.
As for Tom Hardy, I have no doubt he will deliver some outstanding performances in the wars to come. He certainly proved himself with Bronson.
Wouldnt* be surprised <__<
Years* to come. Was I typing this with my eyes closed?!
I could see Fassbender getting supporting for Prometheus. Other than that, a much deserved break after a packed 2011.
How about Woody Harrelson for Rampart? Or is that considered last year?
That was last year. Not sure if you saw the nomination announcement, but he was involved and joked about his name not being included.
Yeah, at the Golden Globes. He also got Independent Spirit and Satellite Award nominations for that one.
Leonardo DiCaprio is not a supporting actor for the Great Gatsby. He is the leading role (Jay Gatsby) and will most likely be nominated for best actor. I do, however, believe that he is in a supporting role for Django Unchained, though it's difficult to say this early who the leading role is. It is my understanding that Leo brings in huge numbers at the box office the past 5 years or so with movies like The Departed, Blood Diamond, Shutter Island, and Inception, so he was QT's number one guy. I also read on IMDb that the original Django part was offered to Will Smith, who turned it down. Foxx is most likely the supporting actor in that film. It seems that Daniel Day-Lewis will be nominated, with two nominations simultaneously from DiCaprio. Lewis will not win, simply because the movie will not be taken seriously, such as Anthony Hopkins role in The Rite, or Jack Nicholson's role in Anger Management. Abraham Lincoln killing zombies is sure to draw in big box office numbers, and I feel that Lewis is one of the top ALL-TIME actors, but he will not win the Oscar for this part. The other two nominations are undecided, but certainly keep an eye out for Denzel and PS Hoffman. If Foxx does turn out to be a leading role, then look out for DiCaprio to be nominated twice, once for leading role and once for support. Though he may have trouble winning with Cristoph Waltz acting in the same film. QT is putting together probably the best work of his lifetime.
i just watched the grey and understand that the film was controversal, but liam neeson quietly carried the movie that was an easy one to fade into the scenery, i mean if ya have 21 he should be a lock for one
why Controversial?it was a good film that's all i know.
No love for Matthew McConaughey as the loathsome lead in "Killer Joe"? He has apparently turned in a powerhouse performance.
I think Robert Pattinson winning an Oscar would prove that he is more than just a sparkly vampire. Haven't got the chance to see Cosmopolis so don't know if it is Oscar worthy
what about denzel. i think that he is the one