Oscar Predictions

Early 2014 Oscar Predictions: First Best Picture Line-Up

40 contenders, two top the list, which ones will stick around all year?

Early 2014 Oscar Predictions - Best PictureObviously predicting the Oscars this early in the year is virtually impossible, but you have to start somewhere and one of my goals in redesigning the site last year was to make it possible to create an admin where I could predict the Oscars virtually year round rather than waiting. Certainly, it makes for longer lists and a little more work, but considering this is all about the fun of predicting I felt it was worth it.

So, today we take our first look at the Best Picture category at the 2014 Oscars where I have 40 films currently competing for up to ten slots in the Best Picture race. As the year goes on, we all know these 40 films will likely whittle down to about 15-20 if not fewer, but for now it's early enough where we can count on a lot more than that and also count on a few being added we might not be thinking of at the moment.

These predictions are largely based on those involved from the director, cast and screenwriter as well as the studio distributing the feature. The strength and size of the story matters as well this early in the game before people have had a chance to weigh in and before any conversation surrounding the film can be determined.

Just like last year I will periodically update the list throughout the year, moving films up and down the list as they play at festivals, are reviewed by critics and as the audience begins to weigh in with their thoughts. Most likely the movement will be slight at the beginning of the year, but with Cannes coming in May there is no better time to get a jump start on the awards season than now as I'm sure Cannes will add a couple to the mix, if not bump a few of these a little higher.

At the top I am going with George Clooney's The Monuments Men followed closely by Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street.

First for Monuments Men, you're looking at an adaptation of Robert M. Edsel's book "The Monuments Men: Allied Heroes, Nazi Thieves, and the Greatest Treasure Hunt in History" with a screenplay written by Clooney and Grant Heslov, a writing duo nominated before for screenplays for Good Night, and Good Luck. and The Ides of March. Clooney was previously nominated as director of Good Night, and Good Luck. and he co-stars in this film with Bill Murray, Cate Blanchett, Jean Dujardin, John Goodman, Hugh Bonneville, Bob Balaban and Matt Damon. All of this in a film set during World War II and dealing with the rescue artistic masterpieces from Nazi thieves. This has Oscar written all over it.

While Seth MacFarlane made a joke about the disappearance of Jean Dujardin after he won an Oscar for his performance in The Artist in 2011, one thing Monuments Men and Scorsese's Wolf of Wall Street has in common is Dujardin. Could he end up being a good luck charm for one of these films?

Wolf of Wall Street is also based on a true story, this time Jordan Belfort's tell-all autobiography with Scorsese teaming for the fifth time with Leonardo DiCaprio where he'll play a Long Island penny stockbroker who served 20 months in prison for refusing to cooperate in a massive 1990s securities fraud case that involved widespread corruption on Wall Street and in the corporate banking world, including mob infiltration. Joining DiCaprio are a few names you may recognize such as Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Julie Andrews, Jon Favreau, Matthew McConaughey and Shea Whigham. Top that off with a screenplay from "Boardwalk Empire" and "The Sopranos" scribe Terence Winter and you have a major Oscar contender.

I've gone over each and every film on this list in my "40 Potential 2014 Oscar Contenders" list so I'm not going to detail every single one of them again, but as far as those I currently have in my top nine, here they are along with a few added details:

3.) Saving Mr. Banks - Directed by John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side) and starring Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as P.L. Travers. Another no-brainer contender, but can Hancock deliver twice?

4.) Captain Phillips - Hey look, it's Tom Hanks again and this time he's with Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum) in the true story of Captain Richard Phillips and the 2009 hijacking by Somali pirates of the US-flagged MV Maersk Alabama, the first American cargo ship to be hijacked in two hundred years.

5.) Out of the Furnace - Scott Cooper directs his first film since Crazy Heart from a Blacklist script by Brad Inglesby starring Christian Bale, Zoe Saldana, Casey Affleck, Sam Shepard, Woody Harrelson, Willem Dafoe and Forest Whitaker.

6.) Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project - Including this one was a bit of a question mark considering its chances of hitting theaters this year are slim and including it means another film is bumped out of the nomination list. However, it can't go unaccounted for. We'll know soon enough if it's going to make it to theaters this year or not, so for now it remains.

7.) Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller's follow-up to Moneyball starring Steve Carell, Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo in another based on a true story feature with a screenplay from screenwriters Dan Futterman (Capote) and E. Max Frye.

8.) Fruitvale - Last year it was Beasts of the Southern Wild, before that Winter's Bone and The Kids are Alright and before that Precious. A small, but impressive film out of Sundance always seems to stick around throughout the year and make an impact. Fruitvale is likely to be that film this year.

9.) Rush - The final slot was a tough one, but I decided on Ron Howard's Formula 1 feature starring Chris Hemsworth (The Avengers) and Daniel Brühl (Inglourious Basterds). Howard hasn't directed a film with serious Oscar ambition since 2008's Frost/Nixon and if that film can score a Best Picture nomination I have to believe this one is nearly a shoo-in.


To check out my complete list of 40 early Best Picture contenders and their rankings click here.

Films on the other side of the cut include The Fifth Estate, The Butler, Elysium, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom and August: Osage County and plenty more.

I will begin taking a look at the acting categories and Best Director also this week, so stay tuned.

Additionally, if you don't have a free RopeofSilicon account you may want to register for one. Later this year, all contenders below the Bubble Line and not among my projected nominees will only be visible to logged in and registered members of the site. So if you haven't registered yet, you may as well do so now. It only takes a second.

Thanks for Reading! Join the Community!
Support the Site! Make it Faster! No Ads!

Your support goes a long way in ensuring RopeofSilicon.com stays stable. For less than the price of one small popcorn, you can can help support RopeofSilicon and, in turn, visit the site every day without ads! Including this one!

Subscribe Now!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

    So Brad, are you going to do predictions for every category or just the big ones (Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Director, etc.)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    Very nice preview, Monuments Men and Wolf of Wall Street are also my top at this point. Here's what I'm predicting right now:

    August: Osage County
    Captain Philips
    The Counselor
    Foxcatcher
    Monuments Men
    Nebraska
    Savings Mr. Banks
    Twelve Years a Slave
    Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project
    The Wolf of Wall Street

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

    Very early Brad, but this way it's more fun! if you look at this list when nominations come.
    i just think that August Osage County is a top contendor for now, if you look at the cast, director and the fact TWC is behind it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    I'm surprised you didn't put in August: Osage County. That seems to be an early frontrunner based on other predictions.

    • http://letterboxd.com/ragingtaxidrver/ RagingTaxiDriver

      With that great cast, it appears it would be, but I'm thinking it could be a flop compared to its expectations. Not saying it'll be bad, just not enough to score a nomination. But I hope I'm wrong.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

        The play it's adapted from is supposed to be good, but i have no idea what it is about.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

    i would go

    Monuments men
    Wolf of wall street
    August Osage County
    Sving Mr. Banks
    Captain Phillips
    Foxcatcher
    Labor Day
    Out of the furnace
    Nebraska
    12 years a slave

    i'm not counting on David O. Russel's film to come out this year, but if it will it will be in.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/brace/ branimir djurovic

    it is early for real predictions, but it's fun. and it will stay fun until the nominations are announced. right now I'm rooting for Foxcather.

  • Vanessa

    Apparently David O Russell's film is supposed to wrap mid May, that would leave him 6 months for post.... I dunno..

  • Prakshid Meshram

    2014 #OSCAR Preview- My Early Prediction
    BEST PICTURE:
    1. The Wolf Of Wall Street*
    2. Monuments Men
    3. Foxcatcher
    4. 12 Years A Slave
    5. Gravity
    6. The Counselor
    7. Saving Mr. Banks
    8. Labor Day
    9. August: Osage county
    10.David O. Russell Untitled Abscam Project/American Bullshit
    Alt. Nebraska

    BEST DIRECTOR:
    1. George Clooney- Monuments Men
    2. Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave
    3. Bennet Miller- Foxcatcher
    4. Martin Scorsese- The Wolf of Wall Street*
    5. Alfonso Cuaron- Gravity
    Alt. Ridley Scott- The Counselor

    BEST ACTOR:
    1. Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks*
    2. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
    3. Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
    4. Leonardo Di Caprio- The Wolf of Wall Street
    5. Matthew McConaughey- Dallas Buyer's Club
    Alt. Bruce Dern- Nebraska

    BEST ACTRESS:
    1. Naomi Watts- Diana*
    2. Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
    3. Emma Thompson- Saving Mr. Banks
    4. Kate Winslet- Labor Day
    5. Nicole Kidman- Grace Of Monaco
    Alt. Jennifer Lawrence- Serena
    Sandra Bullock- Gravity

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Josh Brolin- Labor Day
    2. Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave*
    3. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
    4. Jonah Hill- The Wolf Of Wall Street
    5. Will Forte- Nebraska
    Alt. Javier Bardem- The Counselor

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Amy Adams- David O. Russell Untitled Abscam Project/American Bullshit
    2. Julia Roberts- August: Osage County*
    3. Cameron Diaz- The Counselor
    4. Cate Blanchett- Monuments Men
    5. Catherine Keener- Captain Phillips
    Alt. Carey Mulligan- Inside Llewyn Davis
    Margo Martindale- August: Osage County

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    1. The Counselor- Cormac McCarthy
    2. Saving Mr. Banks- Kelly Marcel & Sue Smith
    3. Gravity- Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron & Rodrigo Garcia
    4. Nebraska- Bob Nelson
    5. Foxcatcher* - E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman & Bennett Miller
    Alt. Inside Llewyn Davis- Joel & Ethan Coen

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    1. Monuments Men- George Clooney & Grant Heslov
    2. Labor Day- Jason Reitman
    3. 12 Years a Slave- Steve McQueen & John Ridley
    4. August: Osage County- Tracy Letts
    5. The Wolf of Wall Street* - Terence Winter
    Alt. Before Midnight- Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke

    • Gautam

      Predictions look good, but I would suggest following since I just caught up with Before Midnight.
      One of your five adapted screenplay predictions might turn out to be misfire, so I would go with something which looks more certain, and that's Before Midnight.

      I would also predict Julie Delphy @ 5 in Best Actress, if not, atleast she will definitely be @6.

    • Cory

      Have you read the play, August: Osage County? Barbara (Julia Roberts) is just as much a main character as her mother Violet (Meryl Streep). Supporting cast would include Margo Martindale, Julianne Nicholson, Juliette Lewis, Abigail Breslin, and Misty Upham. If Roberts is to be nominated, there is no possible way for her to be nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category unless the script has been severely retooled from the play it was adapted from. Roberts will either receive a Best Actress nomination or nothing at all.

      • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

        I have heard from some quarters that Streep might go supporting.

        Considering she won very recently for Best Actress, I won't be surprised if Wiensteins push Streep as Supporting even if she is a co-lead.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

        You are normally right, but a push for Supporting would give Roberts and Streep equal chance to win instead of canceling each other out. It is the same reason that Phillip Seymour Hoffman, who is very much the co-lead of The Master, went Supporting. Reading the play is why I add Margo to my list of nominees and a possible winner

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    Do you think they'd give it to Clooney two years in a row? I would love it if Wall Street won, but my favorites never do so I'm counting that one out.

    • http://letterboxd.com/ragingtaxidrver/ RagingTaxiDriver

      I too would love Wall Street to win, but right now, it seems Monuments Men has everything going for it production wise. But it's hard not so say the same for Wall Street. Both look to be great pieces of work from some very talented people.

  • Gautam

    Brad, I just caught up with Before Midnight at SXSW and let me tell you this, it's more or less a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay. It's going to play very well for older audience [30+] and probably not as well for younger audience. And since you are going to come up with Best Actor/Actress line up soon, consider Julie Delphy a very strong contender to get nominated . I think it's her career best turn, even better than the other two Before films. Ethan Hawke is a longshot but I won't discount even Best Picture especially considering it will play as well on Screeners as it will in theaters. Not to forget the film's mature theme should suit Academy tastes.

    For others who wish to read my Spoiler free Review of BEFORE MIDNIGHT here's the link .. http://www.cinemaconfessions.com/2013/03/movie-review-before-midnight.html

    I need to watch it couple of more times, to pass any judgement but I still feel Before Sunset is the best in the series. Though I don't know if the experience of watching Before Sunset will remain the same after having watched Before Midnight.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    I love the first set of previews, brad. I have these at the top of my list as well.
    And I am happy that you've got us thinking on these things now. It IS more fun. Just in time for the low level gambler to jump on "march madness at the cinema"!
    I've got August in my top 5 at this point

  • Israel Valencia

    Best Picture Oscar Predictions
    - The Wolf of Wall Street
    - Monuments Men
    - The Counselor
    - Out of the Furnace
    - Saving Mr.Banks
    - Serena
    - Lowlife
    - Foxcatcher
    - Gravity

  • Paul

    These are awesome, Brad. Love that you're doing these year round now.

    Just for fun, I offer up my ridiculous, spit-balling of next year's Oscars:

    Best Picture:
    August: Osage County
    Before Midnight
    The Fifth Estate
    Foxcatcher
    Gravity
    Labor Day
    Nebraska
    Out of the Furnace
    Saving Mr. Banks
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    Best Directing:
    Richard Linklater, “Before Midnight”
    Bill Condon, “The Fifth Estate”
    Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
    Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
    Jason Reitman, “Labor Day”

    Best Actor:
    Steve Carrell, “Foxcatcher”
    Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Fifth Estate”
    Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
    Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Twelve Years a Slave”
    Michael B. Jordan, “Fruitvale”

    Best Actress:
    Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
    Julie Delpy, “Before Midnight”
    Jennifer Lawrence, “Serena”
    Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”
    Kate Winslet, “Labor Day”

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Casey Affleck, “Out of the Furnace”
    Daniel Bruhl, “The Fifth Estate”
    Michael Fassbender, “Twelve Years a Slave”
    Matthew McConaughey, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
    Channing Tatum, “Foxcatcher”

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Cameron Diaz, “The Counselor”
    Rachel McAdams, “A Most Wanted Man”
    Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
    Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale”
    Robin Wright, “A Most Wanted Man”

    • Prakshid Meshram

      Channing Tatum as Mark Schultz is playing the actual real lead in Foxcatcher...His role is just awesome...but I think academy will go for more crazy role which is by Steve carrel as John Du Pont..Academy should nominate Channing , but all on his performance now.. in simple He is not in supporting role from first scene to the last one all is mark's story....Foxcatcher is this year's The Fighter...Two brothers on their way to the Olympic Gold...

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

        Do you have any basis for your information. I tend to be skeptical, but I remember last year when someon said Joaquin was the true lead of The Master and I doubted him

  • Jack

    1. Monuments Men
    2. 12 Years a Slave
    3. Saving Mr. Banks
    4. August: Osage County
    5. Foxcatcher
    6. Labor Day
    7. Wolf of Wall Street
    8. Captain Phillips
    9. Gravity

    DIRECTOR:
    1. George Clooney- Monuments Men
    2. Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave
    3. Bennet Miller- Foxcatcher
    4. Martin Scorsese- Wolf of Wall Street
    5. Alonso Cuaron- Gravity

    ACTOR:
    1. Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks
    2. Chiwetel Ejifor- 12 Years A Slave
    3. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
    4. Bruce Dern- Nebraska
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio- Wolf of Wall Street
    ALT: Matthew McConegheny

    ACTRESS:
    1. Meryl Streep- August
    2. Naomi Watts- Diana
    3. Emma Thompson- Saving Mr. Banks
    4. Kate Winslet- Labor Day
    5. Berenice Bejo- The Past

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    1. Josh Brolin- Labor Day
    2. Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave
    3. Mark Ruffalo- Foxcatcher
    4. Daniel Bruhl- 5th Estate
    5. Sam Rockwell- Way, Way Back

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    1. Margo Martindale- August
    2. Julia Roberts- August
    3. Cameron Diaz- The Counselor
    4. Cate Blanchett- Monuments Men
    5. Catherine Keener- Captain Phillips

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    1. The Counselor
    2. Saving Mr. Banks
    3. Foxcatcher
    4. Nebraska
    5. Fruitvale
    ALT: Inside Llywen Davis

    ADAPTED:
    1. Monuments Men
    2. 12 Years a Slave
    3. August: Osage County
    4. Wolf of Wall Street
    5. Labor Day
    ALT: Before Midnight

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Best Picture Predictions:
    1. Wolf of Wall Street
    2. Monuments Men
    3. (if it comes out this year) David O. Russell Abscam project.
    4. Foxcatcher
    5. Labor Day
    6. August: Osage County
    7. Rush
    8. Saving Mr. Banks
    9. The Butler
    10. Captain Phillips
    Alt. Gravity

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheDeadBurger/ The Dead Burger

    The only thing I feel relatively confident in saying is that this will not be a stellar year for film. There are a few interesting films on the horizon, and I'm sure some could surprise us, but I just don't see much to get excited about on the 2013 slate.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

    I will make final predictions today or tomorrow, but I am having trouble narrowing down. Which is weird because I never have trouble doing that.

    Best Picture Shortlist:
    Nebraska
    The Wolf of Wall Street *
    Fruitvale
    August: Osage County *
    The Counselor
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    Abscam *
    Monuments Men *
    Foxcatcher *
    Gravity *
    Lowlife
    The Butler

    Best Actor Shortlist:
    Christian Bale-Abscam *
    Michael Fassbender-The Counselor
    Bruce Dern-Nebraska
    Tom Hanks-Saving Mr. Banks/Captain Phillips
    Oscar Isaac-Inside Llewyn Davis
    Steve Carrell-Foxcatcher *
    Forrest Whitaker-The Butler
    Benedict Cumberbatch-The Fifth Estate
    Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers' Club
    Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street *
    Great Gatsby

    Best Actress Shortlist:
    Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
    Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
    Meryl Streep-August: Osage County *
    Carey Mulligan-The Great Gatsby
    Marion Cotillard-Lowlife
    Nicole Kidman-Grace of Monaco
    Naomi Watts-Diana
    Jennifer Lawrence-Serena
    Sandra Bullock-Gravity *
    Kate Winslet-Labor Day
    Rooney Mara-Side Effects
    Chloe Grace Moretz-Carrie

    Best Supporting Actor Shortlist:
    Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher *
    Jeremy Renner-Lowlife/Abscam
    Bradley Cooper-Abscam/The Place Beyond the Pines/Serena
    Chris Cooper-August: Osage County
    Benedict Cumberbatch-August: Osage County/Twelve Years a Slave
    Michael Fassbender-Twelve Years a Slave
    Brad Pitt-Twelve Years a Slave/The Counselor
    John Cusack-The Butler
    Alan Rickman-The Butler
    Colin Farrell-Saving Mr. Banks
    Will Forte-Nebraska
    Jonah Hill-The Wolf of Wall Steet
    George Clooney-Gravity *
    Ewan McGregor-August: Osage County

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Julia Roberts-August: Osage County *
    Margo Martindale-August: Osage County *
    Amy Adams-Abscam *
    Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale *
    Cameron Diaz-The Counselor *
    Alt.
    Oprah Winfrey-The Butler
    Carey Mulligan-Inside Llewyn Davis
    Cate Blanchett-Monuments Men
    Naomie Harris-Long Walk to Freedom
    Jennifer Lawrence-Abscam

    Best Director:
    John Wells-August: Osage County
    Lee Daniels-The Butler
    Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity *
    The Coen Brothers-Inside Llewyn Davis
    Bennett Miller-Foxcatcher
    Martin Scorsese-The Wolf of Wall Street *
    Alexander Payne-Nebraska
    Ridley Scott-The Counselor
    David O. Russell-Abscam *
    George Clooney-Monuments Men
    James Gray-Lowlife

    * most likely to make final list, if not locks

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I thought Jennifer Lawrence's role in the a scam movie is more of a cameo. Anyone know more details?

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        *abscam!

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

        I'm not sure how big her role is. All I know is that she is in it, it looks to be good, and she's Jennifer Freakin Lawrence. Plus, when I started, I had Amy Adams under lead. Jennifer just hung around later on. I think her role is bigger than cameo, but not enough for a nomination

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          Maybe this is yet.ANOTHER chance for amy adams to get some recognition. I suppose it depends somewhat on the competition,. doesnt it? Or is it something more?...
          Jennifer freakin' Lawreance's role could, perhaps, grow as the project evolves. I know she will do a brilliant job no matter what her role. Plus, David thinks very highly of her.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

            Considering my current thoughts are now the Supporting Actress race is between Amy, Margo and Julia at this point, I don't see Jennifer sneaking in. However, she could blow the part out of the water, of Fruitvale could die early on

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    My Best Picture Predictions

    1. The Wolf of Wall Street
    2. The Monuments Men
    3. Foxcatcher
    4. August: Osage County
    5. Saving Mr. Banks
    6. Fruitvale
    7. Nebraska
    8. Labor Day
    9. Captain Phillips
    10. Rush

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/jt1215/ joshua fauvel

    Rush, fruitvale my top 2

  • Jim

    I really hope 2013 will finally be James Gray's year. He is the most deserving living director of an Oscar.One thing is sure; He won't be overlook so easily this time.

    Cotillard can't be ignored anymore (Not after giving so many outstanding performances with Nine, Inception, Midnight in Paris & Rust & Bone) & Joaquin Phoenix was last year true best actor.
    Harvey Weinstein can't mess it up after what happened in 2008 with "Two Lovers". James Gray is the most deserving living director of an Oscar.

    BEST PICTURE:

    The Monument Men
    The Wolf of Walt Street
    Lowlife
    Nebraska
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    August: Osage County
    Blood Ties
    The young & prodigious Spivet
    Foxcatcher

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I always like anything Cotillard does. She is amazing. at least worthy of making these early predictions. I havent seen Rust and Bone, but I love french films anyway so am very much looking forward to it.

  • Marie J

    I think The Wolf of Wall Street and David O. Russell's Abscam project looks most interesting, but they have their subject matter as a handicap at the Oscars.
    Movies with a positive message have a much better chance and the Monuments Men looks like perfect Oscar-bait.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mikey/ Mikey

    I predicted Foxcatcher to win back during the Oscar live blog so I'll stick with it on the off-chance it works out.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    I'm going with Abscam off the top of the bat just because of my top 3, Clooney just one BP this year and while I think WoWS will be a big contender, I think Scorsese's just gonna have to blow people away for another win.

    1. Untited Abscam project
    2. The Wolf of Wall Street
    3. The Monuments Men
    4. August Osage County
    5. Foxcatcher
    6. Nebraska
    7. The Way Way Back
    8. The Counselor
    9. Saving Mr Banks
    10. Inside Llewyn Davis

  • JN Films

    Don't forget about Gatsby or Man of Steel!

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      I'm not sure Man of Steel has a shot, unless it's better than The Dark Knight (I hope is its).

      Gatsby worries me. It looks like Baz Luhrman on over drive and rumor has it, Gatsby was the supposed "train wreck" that was supposed to come out last year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        I dont have a lot of faith in Man of Steel either. And as you said, Xarnis, it would have to be along the same awesomeness lines of Dark Knight.
        Who remembers the first Batman motion picture by warner bros? I stood in line for hours to see it way back in, what, 1990?!! And was blown away. But thats just me.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

          Man Of Steel has to be better than The Dark Knight, it just has to be! IMO The Dark Knight is one of the most overrated movies of all time and the worst film of The Dark Knight trilogy. In fact, I would go as far as saying it is the worst Batman movie of all time (yes, worse than Batman And Robin, but I liked Batman And Robin so..). I have quite a bit of faith in Man Of Steel because although the trailers were very 'meh', the last time we got a superhero movie from Zack Snyder (Watchmen), we ended up getting the best superhero movie of all time!

    • http://letterboxd.com/ragingtaxidrver/ RagingTaxiDriver

      Well, Gatsby sure looks like it could be great. Or... it could be a massive disappointment. Baz hasn't done anything really noteworthy since 'Moulin Rouge!'. Really hoping it's not just all about the look and fashion, and that it keeps the substance of the book.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Matt/ Matt

    It's way too early for me to even attempt to make my own predictions, but it certainly seems like "Monuments Men", "The Wolf of Wall Street", "August: Osage County" and "The Counselor" will be the biggest Oscar movies of the year. Personally, I'm looking forward to "The Wolf of Wall Street" the most out of all these films (it's my fourth most anticipated of the year) and if I absolutely had to make a prediction, I'd say it's the most likely to win.

    Also I would absolutely love if David O. Russell's next film hit theaters this year, but I seriously doubt it will.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Im betting on the Abscam movie to come out toward the end of this year. I would be surprised if Russell's goal was to finish in time to release for oscar noms.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        I would NOT be surprised

  • luke

    a most wanted man is very promising, btw isnt both rachel mcadams and phili seymour hoffmanthe leads and robin wrght and william dafoe the supporting roles

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Manu/ Manu

    From what I understand David O. Russell Untitled Abscam Project/American Bullshit starts shooting in late March and since Russell is known for short shoots it might get in this year.

    Very glad you are starting the predictions super early this year. It will definitely be interesting seeing the list get shorter and shorter. Brad, have you considered making an "info graphic" to track the changes until we get to the Oscars in 2014?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Ooo, I like the idea of the "info graphic" to track changes. Ive seen this sort of thing with awards predictions. I love tracking the ups and downs. Then looking at the various things that influence those fluctuations.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    if A Most Wanted Man is good, it could have a shot. The Academy gave Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy quite a few noms back in 2012.

  • Brian S.

    Twelve years a slave was really bad. They need to reshoot 3/4 of it, you can feel Steve McQueen caving to the studio in every shot.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

      Did you see it? Are you basing it on what you've heard? I'm not trying to be mean, just want to know your info

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Chris/ Chris

    What about Her? The new Spike Jonze film.

  • Edd

    Let the campaign begin, with Weinstein promoting August: Osage County, these are sure bets:
    Picture: August: Osage
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep- 90% win
    Supporting: Julia Roberts-80% win

    thats all!

  • Mr Nosy and Harted

    It seems they are leaving the dramas behind. I don't know why. I don't know if you guys noticed, but lots of action movies have been nominated in the past few years. I mean... who would choose Crash over Brokeback Mountain? Im not saying action movies shouldn't be nominated, but clearly there are more movies that should be nominated instead of them.

  • Eoin Daly

    BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS:
    August: Osage County
    Captain Phillips
    Foxcatcher
    Gravity
    Labor Day
    The Monuments Men
    Nebraska
    Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    I agree with 5 of your nominees but I feel some of your choices are uncertain. Out of the Furnace and Rush are not really in the conversation for me. A:OC and Nebraska seem obvious to include because Weinstein's big push will be A:OC and Nebraska has Payne behind it. Gravity getting director will not miss on picture not with over five nominees nowadays. Labor Day is my only pick I'm not sure on but it has Winslet and Reitman which seem like oscar favourites.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Hudsucker/ Hudsucker

    Guys I'm from the future, the untitled David O. Russel film is called American Hustle.

  • Toby Bartle-Bee

    Best Picture
    August : Osage Country
    The Wolf Of Wall St.
    Foxcatcher
    Inside Llewyn Davis
    Dallas Buyers Club
    Twelve Years A Slave
    Nebraska
    Saving Mr. Banks
    The Butler
    The Monuments Men

    Best Director
    Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
    Joel & Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
    Alexander Payne - Nebraska
    Steve McQueen - Twelve Years A Slave
    Martin Scorsese - The Wolf Of Wall St.

    Best Leading Actor
    Bruce Dern - Nebraska
    Chiwetel Ejiofor - Twelve Years A Slave
    Forest Whitaker - The Bulter
    Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf Of Wall St.
    Tom Hanks - Saving Mr. Banks

    Best Leading Actress
    Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
    Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby
    Marion Cotillard - Lowlife
    Meryl Streep - August : Osage Country
    Rooney Mara - Side Effects

    Best Supporting Actor
    Dane DeHaan - Devils Knot
    Joaquin Pheonix - Lowlife
    Josh Brolin - Labor Day
    Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
    Will Forte - Nebraska

    Best Supporting Actress
    Jennifer Garner - Dallas Buyers Club
    Margo Martindale - August : Osage Country
    Oprah Winfrey - The Butler
    Toni Collette - The Way, Way Back
    Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men

    New Star (Own Breakthrough Category) :)
    Misty Upham - August : Osage Country
    Minka Kelly - The Butler
    AnnaSophia Robb - The Way, Way Back
    Olivia Wilde - Her
    Rami Malek - Aint Them Bodies Saints