Oscar Predictions

Early 2014 Oscar Predictions: First Best Actress Line-Up

A field half the size of the men, but just as strong

It seems wrong to only come to the table with 17 Best Actress contenders for the 2014 Oscars when just yesterday I had a list of 34 potential contenders for Best Actor. But I don't think I'm reporting breaking news when I say there aren't nearly the number of quality leading roles for women and if we go by the numbers here it would seem there are 50% fewer quality leading roles... that almost seems high to me.

Of course, some of you will look at my list and say, "But what about Jessica Chastain in Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: His and Hers and Elizabeth Olsen in Therese?" Well, Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby is two films, one told from her perspective and the other from his (James McAvoy). I think that pretty much ruins the chances for a nom there. And Olsen is going to run into trouble with a) the film doesn't have distribution and b) she has Oldboy coming out, which she is far more likely to be a contender.

Yes, there are also a few others I could use to pad the list, but right now I just don't see the point until, at the very least, some of the other films start making festival appearances, such as the case with Decoding Annie Parker starring Helen Hunt and Samantha Morton, which was just announced as the opening night film at the Palm Beach Film Festival. Not a huge fest, but it's a start.

As for my top five contenders, well, we aren't talking about a surprise crop of leading ladies...

1.) Naomi Watts (Diana) - After securing a nomination for her screaming and agony in The Impossible, the opportunity for Watts to lead the charge this year as she plays the late Princess of Wales is strong. Of course, we still need a distributor for Diana and some festival movement, but under the direction of Oliver Hirschbiegel I don't believe it's a stretch to consider Watts a strong contender this year for the top spot. Sight unseen... of course.

2.) Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) - Saving Mr. Banks is apparently even more Thompson's film than it is Tom Hanks' and with her talent, four acting Oscar nominations (another for screenwriting, which she won) and one win, it just might be time for Thompson to be a nominee once again, for the first time in 18 years.

3.) Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco) - The fact Kidman was so loved for her performance in The Paperboy tells me her chances in a role as Grace Kelly are even that much more improved and the fact Grace of Monaco landed at the Weinstein Co. for distribution is another notch in the belt. However, I just can't help but get a feeling everything might not work out with this one and unfortunately it seems a Cannes appearance isn't in the cards.

4.) Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) - I expect Streep will end up topping most Oscar prediction lists once everyone starts weighing in, but I don't see her taking it this year. While there may not be the 34 contenders in the Best Actress field that I have in the Actor field, this is still a stacked list of ladies and while I have never seen the stage play, the idea of a talky dark comedy filed with anger and tears doesn't spell Oscar win for me as much as it spells Oscar nom, and that might even be questionable as I don't see Streep running the campaign circuit ever again the way she did for The Iron Lady.

5.) Kate Winslet (Labor Day) - I had a tough time with the fifth slot, at one point considering Sandra Bullock (Gravity) and at another Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints). The jury is still out on what Gravity will be and without seeing Ain't Them Bodies Saints it sounds like Mara may fall in the Supporting category. So, I've gone with Kate Winslet for Jason Reitman's Labor Day, which seems the more obvious and "safe" choice at this point.


Like I said, I have 17 total contenders in this field right now and you can check out the rankings on all 17 right here and I look forward to your comments on who you think I may have overlooked and who you believe may be the current front-runners.

And, once again, if you don't have a free RopeofSilicon account you may want to register for one. Later this year, all contenders below the Bubble Line and not among my projected nominees will only be visible to logged in and registered members of the site. So if you haven't registered yet, you may as well do so now. It only takes a second.

More Early Predictions

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  • Chris

    Anyone but Meryl in my POV. I think she's a good actress but horrendously overrated. I just don't understand the love. I think this could finally be Watts' year. Biopic + previous noms + British movie = good chances for Oscar.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/brace/ brace

      I agree with every word. instead of Meryl I'd rather see them giving a chance to someone else. Julie Delpy maybe.

    • streeper

      Meryl Streep is NOT "horrendously overrated" WTF! SHE IS THE BEST !!!

    • heeeeeey

      uuhhhh dont understand the love + horrendously overrated... you do now who Meryl Streep is right? 17 oscar nod with 3 wins... 29 golden globe nominations with 10 wins... go sit in the corner and think about what you have done

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Streep seems like the most likely to get nominated, despite the fact that I don't think she'll win. Here are my predictions

    Best actress
    1. Naomi Watts, Diana
    2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    3. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    4. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
    5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

    Brad, your top 5 looks good. What is surprising though is you hearing more buzz for Rooney Mara than Julie Delpy. Having seen both Ain't Them Bodies Saints and Before Midnight I can guarantee you one thing - Julie Delpy is a much stronger contender than Mara.
    In 2003, Delpy came very close to being nominated if you remember, she even won 2nd prize for Best Actress from LAFCA. This time considering it's even a better performance and the theme of the film is mature suiting Academy tastes, I believe when the dust settles down at the end of the year, people will notice it to be one of the best performances. Depending on how strong the year is for female performers, she may or may not get into five. But for now she should be considered a safe bet within five not knowing what's ahead. Positioned @ 15 in your list looks unjustified specially considering Mara is @ 6 who in my opinion is very good too but definitely has less chance of making into Top 5. Infact you rightly pointed out she might very well end up in Supporting.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/MovieFan/ Movie Fan

    Best Actress Predictions
    - Naomi Watts: Diana
    - Nicole Kidman: The Grace of Monaco
    - Emma Thompson: Saving Mr.Banks
    - Sandra Bullock: Gravity
    - Marion Cotilliard: Lowlife

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

    Here's my Top 5

    1. Naomi Watts, Diana
    2. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
    3. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
    4. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
    5. Kate Winslet, Labor Day

    Yes, Julia Roberts. I think Weinsteins know it would be impossible for Meryl to win, hence they may campaign her for Supporting and Roberts for lead. Infact from what I hear both are co-leads in the film.

    Nicole Kidman won't be able to make it into top 5 for two reasons. One, her film is releasing very late on Dec 28 and 2nd she doesn't look even a bit like Grace Kelly. May be she is so famous in her own right that, no body would be convinced her playing Grace Kelly.
    Probably you can apply the same logic to Naomi Watts playing Diana too. Yes, I believe her role as Diana is either going to win her Oscar or it's going to be bashed left right and center. It's all or nothing kind of situation.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ajr/ ajr

      if you think about it though, michelle williams doesnt really look like marilyn monroe and she got an oscar nomination. its about having the personality.

      • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

        Yes, Kidman can definitely pull it off but as I said she is very famous as Grace Kelly was whereas Michelle Williams who is as strong an actress but nobody thinks her to be this larger than life personality. Though there few people complaining about her playing Monroe.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/andyluvsfilms/ andyluvsfilms

    I think either Kidman or Watts, only because they are meatier roles, I don't think Bullock stands a chance although I really can't wait to see the film

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fourleaf/ Fourleaf

    Considering the original Oldboy, wouldn't Elizabeth Olsen rather be in supporting?

  • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

    By the way woundn't it be weirdly funny if Naomi Watts wins Best Actress as the baton will be passed from one royalty to the other. Here's how -
    King (Firth) presented the award to Prime Minister (Streep) who presented it to President (Day Lewis) who in turn will present it to Princess (Watts). Ha.

  • Dave

    What about Jennifer Lawrence for Serena? Am I completely off with that one?

    • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

      She may well get pushed for her role in David O. Russell's Abscam Project, which likely lands her in the Supporting category, I believe.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        Even though her character in Serena is oscar worthy for a lead role, I agree with Jordan. With the strong contenders in lead actress, she will probably be focused on for her supporting role in Abscam.
        As much as I'd like to see it, I very much doubt she will get the votes for the win even if she does give a performance that deserves it.

        • lyta cooper

          i do believe she would get the nomination for serena, and maybe for Abscam as well, depends on Amy Adams perfomance to see who they will be campaying. but Serena in my opinion will get her for sure the nomination. first, because in my point of view the role is diferent from what we will see in the other movies. a lot of biopic. Grace of Monaco, Diana, and a few more will be a bit boring to the academy and audience. and Serena is a role that i have always read is an oscar role. Second, the movie will get high expectations not only from critics, but as well from audience. besides thet fact Jennifer Lawrence is the most popular young actrees in hollywood this is also an on screen reunion with Bradley Cooper, and people love their chemistry together in SLP, so they will go see this. and third the academy voters love her, they nominated her when no one knew who se was, in a movie that had opened in theaters in earl year, on sundance that year, passing all the other well know actrees who had movies on oscar season. that would be her third nomination, and she already won this year. i personally think that the academy is trying to set her apart from the other young actrees in hollywood,like Emma Stone, Emma Watson, Anna Kendrick or Kristen Stewart and reconice Lawrence as the best. and she deserve that, she is the best. so that will be a number 3 nomination, and who knows, maybe the second oscar.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

            I love your well thought out reasoning on Serena and specifically Jennifer Lawrence, lyta. I agree with most everything you said. And I did not realize that Winter's Bone came out earlier in that year.
            She may have Streep and Roberts to contend with if she does get the nom. But it may depend on the response to the other films. The academy may feel they owe Naomi watts. Then again, Amy Adams is nothing if not due.
            Some have said they thought Mr. Pemberton was the lead. But I always felt that the story revolved around Serena. I am curious to see how the screenplay will play out. I feel very confident that her performance will be worthy, having seen all of her projects up to this point.
            Besides Tom Hanks, do you know of anyone else that won two years in a row for lead actor/actress? Did Russell Crow?

  • simone

    in this lineup Watts could easily win, being the only non-winner, like Adrien Brody.

    • Jimbo

      I think Nicole Kidman will probably win her second Oscar before Watts wins her first (and rightfully so).

      • johnnydeppclone

        Jimbo i don't get your hate to Watts. I love both Nicole Kidman & Naomi Watts and i found that most of the Kidman's fans seems dislike Watts. Both are good actress in their own way. You are the only one here praise your Kidman by dismissing Watts, should it called "overrated" for a actress who willing to work hard?

  • Abu Bakker Siddique

    1. Naomi Watts, Diana
    2. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
    3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
    4. Nocole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Serena

    (By the way, Meryl Streep in August: Osage County is supporting).

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/VinceSmetana/ Vince Smetana

      Violet Weston is the center of the play. Did you read the screenplay?

      • Abu Bakker Siddique

        No but I read in an article that says Meryl's character is supporting in the movie. Roberts is in the lead.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/VinceSmetana/ Vince Smetana

          Strange. Too bad you don't have the link.

      • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

        It's arguable whether Violet or Barbara is the venter of the play. Though both Streep and Roberts are said to be the co-leads in the film. And that would give enough opportunity for Weinsteins to push Streep in Supporting so that she has a much better chance of winning in comparison to the lead where she has virtually no chance.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/VinceSmetana/ Vince Smetana

          Violet and Barbara are both co-leads in the play. However, take Violet and her breakdown out, and you lose the centrifugal force of the story. She's also the meatier role. There's no way Streep is being campaigned as anything but lead. Roberts is on the fence at this point. And Margo Martindale is a lock for supporting.

          • http://cinemmaconfessions.com Gautam

            Well, one can argue that Hoffman, Waltz and Helen Hunt had similar strong roles in their films, but still they were campaigned as supporting. It all depends on where the chances to win are better. Streep is no way winning Best Actress even if its one of her best performances [especially if Diana turns out to be good, Watts will take this in a walk] and nobody knows it better than Harvey Weinstein. I am sure he will play this category fraud to make Streep win her 4th Oscar. Just wait and watch. It's going to happen.

            • http://cinesnatch.blogspot.com Vince Smetana

              Streep will be nominated for lead. But, like you said, let's wait and watch.

              • BennY

                I read the play and it's absolutely fantastic.

                In the play both Violet and Barbara are obvious leads.

                But Harvey is behind this and I'm pretty much convinced he'll campaign Meryl as Lead and Julia as Supporting.

                Talking of Harvey, he get's his women nominated. Yes, he failed to support Maggie Smith in Quartet last year, but Kidman playing Grace Kelly is so OSCAR it hurts.

                2013 will be similar to 2011 when we had Streep, Glenn Close and Michelle Williams (3 big names) in super Oscar-sounding projects - surprise surprise, all 3 were nominated!

                the top 3 is for sure:

                1. Naomi Watts
                2. Nicole Kidman
                3. Meryl Streep

                two of them are Harvey women + Stars + Oscar names and Watts will pull it off due to the overdue factor, babe factor, star, bio pic etc. - in fact she'll win the Oscar, unless she sucks in the film.

                there will be a huge fight for slots 4 and 5

                and I say Kate Winslet is not guaranteed a place because "Labor Day" can easily be a "Young Adult".

                Here is where I turn to Cate Blanchett.

                When Woody Allen films are liked they go all the way to the Oscars, Blanchett is leading this film, and she's not a Scarlett Johansson or an Owen Wilson. Plus look at her history at the Oscars, they often nominate her in films they are not particularly fond of.

                Not only that but we're not sure how The Monuments Men screenplay treats her as the only woman in the film. She can easily be pushed for lead since there is a love story involved.

                Yes, Thompson's nomination makes sense.

                I hope both Chastain (unless she's remarkable) and Lawrence take a break this year.

              • http://cinesnatch.blogspot.com Vince Smetana

                BennY,
                Here are my predictions:

                http://cinesnatch.blogspot.com/2013/03/best-actress-2013-march-predictions.html

                Too many people are predicting almost a full slate of former lead winners. The most that have ever gotten nominated are three in the Best Actress categories. And that's only happened four or five times. Two is more common, yet that has only happened twice in over two decades. Though, I think three is likely this year. I like your Blanchett prediction over Thompson. Thompson seems like a slam-dunk. And she could easily get in, but I'm on the fence with Lawrence, Winslet (who probably won't), and, even though I don't think she'll make it in (but everyone seems to be predicting her, Sandra Bullock.

                Anyway, I totally agree with your top three. I'm surprised I've seen zero people talk about Zoe Saldana. She's my #4.

  • Abu Bakker Siddique

    1. Naomi Watts, Diana
    2. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
    3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
    4. Nocole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Serena

    Rooney Mara can be the no. 6 for Ain't Them Bodies Saints.

    (By the way, Meryl Streep in August: Osage County is supporting).

  • Eoin Daly

    BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:
    Marion Cotillard, Lowlife
    Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
    Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    Kate Winsley, Labor Day

    First might I say the category is quite stacked compared to the year we just had. I may be taking a risk by predicting all previous winners but it happened in supporting actor so I think it might happen again. Kidman and Streep seem likely to me for Streep being Streep and Kidman having Weinstein playing a hollywood great. Also Winslet seems safe for being an academy favourite working with Reitman. Lawrence seems like the returning winner from last year and she has a fantastic role that could turn people on her side who did not like SLP. Cotillard is my least safe pick but I think he being snubbed in 2012 can only help and with Weinstein with her she should get her long overdue second nomination. Diana seems like a failure to me which is why I think Watts will miss, also Saving Mr. Banks being the Hyde Park on Hudson of 2013 so that knocks out Thompson.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I have a similar breakdown but I am holding out for Julia Roberts rather than winslet. I even doubt that Streep will win. I can see lawrence with a nom. Serena is as you said extremely juicy! Much more of a complex character than Tiffany in SLP.
      I don't know anything about low life. But I will read about it. Sounds a bit like rust and bone from the title.

  • Mark

    Streep in supporting wills win. She will most likely be the frontrnners in lead. I've seen the play and Violet is an iconic role tat will be harrd to to.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Naomi Watts- Diana
    2. Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
    3. Nicole Kidman- Grace of Monaco
    4. Kate Winslet- Labor Day
    5. Jennifer Lawrence- Serena

  • Mark

    Sorry for the typos on my iPhone. Meant to say Streep WILL win if she goes supporting. An iconic role which will be hard to top.

    Thanks

    • Abu Bakker Siddique

      This year's supporting is going to be hard. Amy Adams has Untitled David O. Russell/Abscam Project, where her character is extremely interesting and very "Oscary". She's already a 4 times nominee, I guess this would be her year.

      P.S. I love Meryl Streep though.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jake17/ Jake17

        No to mention what is supposedly a very important role for Diaz in The Counselor (IMO I don't really know if she can pull it off.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          Isn't it true that Diaz's only nom was in being John malkovich? That was a very long time ago. And since then I can't say she's done much with substance. I'll be interested to read more about this film.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jake17/ Jake17

            Like I said, I don't know that she can do a good job. All I know is that people who have read the script say its a really juicy part. And Catherine Keener was nominated for BJM, not Diaz.

          • Sikri06

            Diaz has never been nominated before.

            • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

              Yes, Sikri, I stand corrected. She was nominated for BJM in a supporting role for Bafta, Golden globe and sag. But not an oscar.

  • Jack

    1. Amy Adams- Abscam
    2. Meryl Streep- August
    3. Naomi Watts- Diana
    4. Emma Thompson- Saving Mr. Banks
    5. Berenice Bejo- The Past
    ALT: Nicole Kidman

    I have Winslet in supporting.

    • Abu Bakker Siddique

      Amy in Abscam is a supporting.

  • kuwaity

    go to the oscar Nicole Kidman

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

    i'm just saying Naomi Watts, she is such a great actress she deserves to win one.

  • Sandra

    Streep is the greatest ever and it's a shame she has only been given 3 Oscar's. I get sick of hearing around that it is someone else's "turn" to be nominated or win. It should not be about turns but the best. We don't do "turns" in sporting events. Anyway, I would love to see Streep get a 4th Oscar.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Yeah but with sports, winners aren't always decided by judges. But when they are it isn't quite as subjective as in tv and film making. But then, subjective is a relative term n'est pas?

  • Mark

    Streep has a supporting role in the Homesman which may lead to a supporting nomination. Early word is that it is juicy role as she is paired with TLJ once again. A double nomination perhaps (August & Homesman).

    • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

      the plot summary for Homesman is quite interesting - thanks for bringing it up ! Its now on my radar

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

    Best Actress:
    Sandra Bullock-Gravity
    Marion Cotillard-Lowlife
    Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
    Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
    Naomi Watts-Diana

    I have also finished my entire list of predictions, so that is good

  • Carol

    Naomi Watts is the best actress working today, she has to be the frontrunner and winner

    • Jimbo

      Naomi Watts is clearly not the best actress working today. Meryl Streep, Isabelle Huppert, Tilda Swinton, Julianne Moore, Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet, Cate Blanchett (to name a few) are all better than her. The Watts fanboys/girls are absolutely ridiculous.

      • johnnydeppclone

        Jimbo i don't get your hate to Watts. I love both Nicole Kidman & Naomi Watts and i found that most of the Kidman's fans seems dislike Watts. Both are good actress in their own way. You are the only one here praise your Kidman by dismissing Watts, should it called "overrated" for a actress who willing to work hard?

  • henrique santos

    :
    Best Actress:
    Sandra Bullock-Gravity
    Marion Cotillard-Lowlife
    Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
    Michelle pfeiffer- malevita
    Naomi Watts-Diana

  • netshopper

    Ugh...Watts as Diana looks like a big hunk of cheesy.

  • Bren

    Ugh...what an insanely boring group of potential nominees. At least with the other acting categories you get variety for the most part. I don't really want to watch any of those possible candidates.

  • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

    I dont understand the hate for Meryl ( not from you brad but from other commenters)

    if you think back winslet got nominated for savages which was also a dark and talky dramedy, I think with the talent involved and the fact that it is a much loved play Streep has a very high chance. and I'll say it again i cannot see watts leading the charge. she was terrible in The impossible I was shocked she was nominated and in Diana it is going too much for that look-alike genre. again not having seen the film I want to reserve judgement, but that first photo had me running for the hills! it looked like a history channel movie. I think kidman has a better chance than watts.

    2013 is going to be fantastic and I am going to continue support streep

    • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

      i meant carnage -whats wrong with me!

      • Gautam

        Winslet was not nominated for Carnage.

        • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

          I stand corrected! i thought she was nominated with waltz also - a simple Google would've saved me the embarrassment!

          • Gautam

            Well. I don't want to embarrass you more, but Waltz wan't nominated for Carnage too :)

    • stephenio

      It's you are terrible in judging her acting. She is authentic and phenomenal in The impossible and was praised by many critics and celebrities. She was good in portrayal of real person: Valerie Plame CIA in Fair game and Maria Belon in The Impossible.

      • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

        so far you've called me ignorant and terrible at judging performances - both subjective so I'll leave you be.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          sounds like a good idea! Some people are so "subjectively opinionated"!

          • stephenio

            sounds like you have no idea it was ViralVora subjectively dismissing Watts in The Impossible but thankfully GG, BFCA, SAG & Academy did not. And ViralVora claimed to biased towards Streep, so which of her subjective opinions sounds like a better idea?

            • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

              wow now I'm being called a girl! I'm not feeling any love on this site lately! :)

              • stephenio

                Ok, my fault. I apologize for any offense to you.

      • Carl

        I agree with Stephenio. if you're a real movie fan, you'd know Carnage didnt get any acting Oscar noms. This is easy for someone who really knows movies and actors. Naomi Watts was heartbreaking in The Impossible. and she will win for Diana. a toss between her and her BFF Nicole.

        • http://cinesnatch.blogspot.com Vince Smetana

          If you're a "real" movie fan? Hmmn. While you may have not intended it that way, the comment sounds slightly pretentious. I think we're being a little harsh on ViralVora. While s/he didn't originally mean Laura Linney, that's the way I read it. And, anyway, Winlset and Jodie Foster both picked up Globe nods. Waltz just won an Oscar.

          So what, who cares. Life's short.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          So what constitutes a "real Movie fan"?!! One who "really know movies"?!
          Hmm...You must be in your own bubble of perfection. Meanwhile, I'll be down among the common folk!

          • stephenio

            I guess she means cinephile or movie buff.

  • Gautam

    Watts terrible in Impossible ? I could understand calling the movie so, but she was exceptional to say the least. And anyways, our opinion hardly matters, it's the Academy's which does. And going by the vociferous support she had last year, [Witherspoon, Downey Jr., Cotillard to name a few among several ] only shows the tremendous amount of goodwill she carries in the industry. I believe she could have won this year's Oscar had the movie been seen by more people. Anyways, she will carry the goodwill in next year's Oscar and if members are given a chance 2nd time, I have no doubt in my mind that they will not miss the opportunity. Hopefully, you now know why Brad and several others are picking her for a win.

    • stephenio

      Only ignorant people didn't know that. What they can do is to praise an actress by dismissing others.

    • http://lifein70mm.wordpress.com ViralVora

      I found the movie terribly contrite and her acting to not exceptional in the least. its just i dont find the concept of the Diana movie very appealing and I expect it to be a cheese fest - I'd love to be wrong because I do like Watts in other stuff she's done . but nope Impossible wasnt good and and watts couldnt redeem it for me

      I am biased towards Streep - sure - even The Iron lady wasn't perfect but her portrayal was the redeeming factor in that movie.

      • stephenio

        First of all, no one hate Streep.
        You said i'm subjective while you admitted that you are biased towards Streep...
        I remember about this time in GoldGerby when people predicting Watts will be in contension in 2012 Oscar , and she was in.
        It's you subjectively dismissing the film & Watts performance but GG, BFCA, SAG & AMPAS did not. I know she is not the best amongst all but clearly better than many other actresses. And it's not her best performance to date.
        What made you bad feeling to Diana? A few photo?
        Is Michelle William looks like Marilyn Monroe? No, but she pulled it off.
        Is Helen Mirren looks like Queen Elizabeth II? No, but she pulled it off.
        Your bias and doubt about Watts ability made you think she cannot redeem it for you. I'm quite sure you don't know her previous works so well.

        Is Michelle William look like Marilyn Monroe

  • Mike M.

    Sad that Jessica Chastain had to drop out of 'Diana' due to scheduling conflicts...I think that Naomi Watts may have her winning role.

    • Carl

      Naomi looks far more closer. and Jessica was badass as Maya! :) I was hoping she'd win but i wasnt that disappointed with Jennifer.

  • Carl

    only Nicole , Naomi or Meryl/Julia for August could get it this year. No one beyond this shortlist.

    Naomi gets it!

  • Genadijus

    For sure, Naomi is one of the best actresses of her generation, I can see in the same category as J. Moore, M. Pfeiffer, J. Davis who are really overdue for oscars. For me Naomi looks like a frontrunner until I'll see a movie. I suppose it can be premiered in London International Film Festival in September, then Toronto or New York.
    Morevoer, she can a great buzz from this year's "The Impossible". I heard a lot of people saying after Oscar and after watching the movie, that Naomi could be a winner if the movie premiered would be in November last year.

  • milo

    Brad where is Marion cotillard in your prediction? two biopics not happening

  • coenbros

    Best Actress Predictions
    AMPAS has never snubbed any biopics of the Royal Family. Streep, Kidman & Watts will be in.
    - Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
    - Naomi Watts: Diana
    - Nicole Kidman: The Grace of Monaco
    - Emma Thompson: Saving Mr.Banks
    - Sandra Bullock: Gravity
    Alt: Julie Delpy : Before Midnight
    Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
    Marion Cotillard is highly in doubt considered her accent and Weinstein is not gonna push her.

    • Lara

      "Marion Cotillard is highly in doubt considered her accent and Weinstein is not gonna push her."

      I heard crazy things but THIS is the worst!

      First she's supposed to have a polish accent in Lowlife
      [...] considered her accent [... ] what exactly?
      And Harvey Weinstein himself is a big fan of Cotillard, you bet he will push her! He will even use the fact that she should've get nominated for "Rust & Bone" to push her even more.
      Finally, Lowlife is directed by a true author and every time a true author takes a women as the lead she ultimately end up at least nominated (F.Mcdormand/Cohen Brothers - Farfo, Naomi Watts/D.Lynch - 21 Grammes, Angelina Jolie/C.Eastwood - Changelling...) or end up winning (Hilary.Swank/C.Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby, Kate Winslet/Roman Polanski - The Reader, Nathali Portman/Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan...).

      Actually she's the only one with this huge advantage, a true american author.

  • luke

    rachel mcadams a most wanted man

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ChrisJr./ Chris Jr.

    I don't know maybe I'm reading all the comments wrong, but some of you seem to think actors, actresses and directors take turns on getting nominated. You can't expect them to give their best but then have to sit out because they were nominated numerous times or just recently.

    Anyway I'm looking forward to most of the performances, and like most people I really hope Naomi Watts gives her best performance yet.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Stinger/ Stinger

    If the next year Daniel Day-Lewis presents Naomi Watts with her Oscar, the greatest actor and the greatest actress of our generation will be on the stage at the same time.

    • Eoin Daly

      That happened when Streep gave Lewis his oscar this year. Watts is no where near that status and while I like her she is SO OVERRATED. Kidman will be the princess to get and not Watts who should wait for Queen of the Desert or something else to win. Chastain should have played Diana.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Stinger/ Stinger

        I considered Streep as part of the previous generation though. Streep is a great actress anyway, if you prefer to call her the greatest I have no qualms with that. My personal choice is Watts, and my impression was that she is underrated rather than overrated. But people have different tastes and preferences. I'm curious to know why you think she's overrated, so I maybe able to respond to your criticism.

        • Eoin Daly

          Well my thoughts on her being overrated is that only really 4 of her performances I have liked in her career they are Mulholland, 21 Grams, Kong and Impossible. I just feel people place her on a high standard because she was snubbed so many times. I agree her Mulholland Drive is one of the best ever but she just doesn't stick out for me as much. I always compare her to Kidman as they are both australian and best friends. I love Kidman in all her smaller films and thinks she takes more risks like Paperboy and Dogville unlike Watts who has done J. Edgar. They are some of my thoughts.

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Stinger/ Stinger

            I think she has many more great performances, including "Ellie Parker", "Funny Games", "Stay" (not a good movie but great acting), "Fair Game", and "We Don't Live Here Anymore". I also disagree that she doesn't take risks. She has only two big-shot Hollywood movies as far as I remember, her career is basically independent and experimental films.

            It's just that in every film she really centers everything around herself, playing conflicting and complex and immense emotions, and her quality has been mostly consistent (I agree she didn't do much in J. Edgar). Kidman is a great actress, but I think what she does in "The Hours" Watts does in (almost) every role. One criticism you might make about Watts is that she plays similar roles, always the nervous woman on the brink of mental collapse, but she does it so convincingly and so greatly that I don't mind that. She embodies grief and madness. Few actresses can do that.

            So I place her on a high standard because every actress who could turn in so many great performances is definitely a genius of her craft. Most people have only one "Mulholland Drive" or "21 Grams" or "Ellie Parker" in their career. Brenda Blethyn for "Secrets and Lies" is an example of that, she never does what she does in that movie.

            Of course I have to say, the disadvantage of awards is the fact that there is one "winner". Ultimately, there's no real competition between Streep and Watts or Kidman or other great actresses, so I don't think you're "wrong", I just think we might look for different things.

      • Rightbriani

        Jessica Chastian turned down the role because she doesn't want to take risk. And considering her accent, look and background, she is even less convincing than Watts as Diana. Hirschbiegel said she did great, we'll see to judge.
        I'm not a big fan of Watts, but i'd say she deserves AT LEAST an Oscar.

    • Jimbo

      Naomi Watts is certainly not "the greatest actress of her generation". She's really overrated. I find her very bland, boring and uninteresting. IMO, she has only given one truly great performance in her career: in "Mulholland Drive".
      Nicole Kidman's performances in "To Die For", "Dogville", "Eyes Wide Shut", "Birth", "The Others", "Margot at the Wedding", "Rabbit Hole", "The Paperboy", "The Hours" and "Stoker" are all far more layered and fascinating than anything Watts has ever done.

      • johnnydeppclone

        Surely not the "greatest", but fair to say she is "great". Her perf. in MD alone makes her overdue an Oscar. She is underrated as many critics said (surely not overrated, rofl).
        It sounds like you are leaned towards Nicole Kidman. I'm sure only "To die For", "Dogville", and "Moulin Rouge!" are nomination-worthy. And i'm sure you don't know Watts perf. very well. Literally good, decent perf. in 21g, King Kong, The Painted Veil, Fair Game , The Painted Veil & Mother & Child.
        It is subjective enough for you to say she is very bland and boring. She is just uninterested/ bland to you doesn't mean her perf. is bad.
        She is low-key and humble but earned so much respects from industry & peers and you know why? Because she is a good actress and people around the industry knows it.
        Some people don't know Watts is a true treasure(as Mark Ruffalo said) right there but thankfully great director don't think that way. I can't even count on how many great actors & directors worked with Watts. Woody Allen once offered 3 roles to Watts (Melinda and Melinda, Cassandra's Dream & You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    One thought on "there is only one winner". If one considers the pool of actors that the nominations are narrowed down from, it is indeed, for many, "winning" just being nominated. Many go their entire career never being nominated at all. They can still be considered a good actor and have success without awards recognition.
    Of course, whether one wins an award has a huge baring on the other actors in that category.
    Take this years' actors. Several of the actors gave the performance of their career, but had no chance against Lewis.

    • Mark

      If brad has not see the play.August Osage County he can't judge what a brilliant re violet Weston is. Streep has the oscar in the bag.

  • Mark

    Plan on Streep campaigning her ass off for August since Harvey will push her to the limit. I think Meryl has a good chance of winning.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    Actually, id love to see Streep campaigning. She is a lot of fun and a great interview. Harvey will indeed do his best with not only her but Roberts as will, i think.

  • Rod

    I think Kate Winslet will win her second Oscar for Labor Day.

  • Aline

    Cate Blanchett???

    She is leading in the new Woody Allen movie... and she is supporting Clooney in Monument's Men.

    I think she has a shot in both categories.

    And for me, she has to be included in the greatest actresses of all time.

    The academy owe her an Oscar. I mean, she should have won for "her" Bob Dylan in "I'm not there". I love Tilda Swinton but that Oscar was for Cate.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I love Cate Blanchett as well. I think she has a better chance in the supporting category for Monuments Men. But I guess it depends whether she is put in for supporting in MM or lead in Blue Jasmine.
      Remember her in Bandits? An awkwardly funny movie in which she showed a comedic side I didnt know she had.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/absiddique/ AB Siddique

      Can't agree more. Cate's version of Bob Dylan is in my view one of the best female performances of all time. Thanks for mentioning it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/CColombus/ Adam Griffin

    In a year with so many great female performances, I wish they could widen the category to support ten actresses. If that principle can apply to "BEST PICTURE" why can't it apply to acting? There's simply too many to narrow it down.