Oscar Predictions

'Django' Divide: The Battle for Best Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay

Two categories that find a reader vs. expert divide

I will be posting the final results of the RopeofSilicon reader poll for tonight's 2013 Oscars around 1 PM or so, but I was looking over MetaCritic's round-up of several Oscar prognosticators from the Internet compared to the MetaCritic user predictions and noticed two categories where a certain movie is providing a bit of a dividing line... Django Unchained.

Now, I like Django Unchained as much as the next person (it was my #1 film of the year), but I didn't predict it to win Best Supporting Actor or even Best Original Screenplay.

RopeofSilicon readers and MetaCritic users would beg to differ.

MetaCritic Best Supporting Actor Predictions
MetaCritic Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Photo: MetaCritic

My prediction for Supporting Actor is Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) and as you can see from the screen capture from MetaCritic just above, the group of "expert" predictions compiled by MetaCritic's Jason Dietz (see the full list at the bottom of his post here) actually agree with me. To be honest, that surprises me as I felt I was going out on a little bit of a limb.

However, look at the difference between the "expert" prediction and the prediction of MetaCritic users. Personally, I think the users are making the smart and safe prediction going with either Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) or Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), but I still can't help but feel it's going to land in De Niro's hands. Yes, I spit in the face of smart and safe! Mu hu ha ha haaaa!

Looking over the current results in the RopeofSilicon reader poll, Waltz holds a lead over De Niro by almost 100 votes, with Jones in a close third. It's gonna be a photo finish folks.

MetaCritic Best Original Screenplay Predictions
MetaCritic Best Original Screenplay Predictions
Photo: MetaCritic

Now we move to Original Screenplay where I am once again surprised to see my pick of Michael Haneke's Amour screenplay actually tied for the top spot with Mark Boal's Zero Dark Thirty. I'm primarily surprised because I, once again, think the safe and smart bet is the one being made by MetaCritic users and echoed by RopeofSilicon readers for Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained. Now that doesn't mean I think Django is going to win, otherwise I would have predicted it, but in terms of the safest bet, that's probably the route to go.

As of now, Tarantino holds the lead in the RopeofSilicon reader poll by a healthy margin of more than 300 votes of Boal with Haneke a distant third.

Like I said, I will be posting the final results from the reader poll a few hours before we begin live-blogging the 2013 Oscars, so if you haven't yet added your voice to the conversation or placed your votes in my 24 polls for each and every category, click here and get in on the action. It's going to be a fun night.

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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

    Really? No e of the experts think Moonrise Kingdom will take home best original screenplay? I'm telling you, it's going to win!

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

      None*

      • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

        Unfortunately, no, it (almost) certainly won't, though I'd love to see it happen.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

          I'm not trying to sound like a jerk here, I'm just curious, what do you think will win best original screenplay?

          • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

            I've changed my prediction from Moonrise Kingdom to Django Unchained.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    Ive changed my predics on screenplay back and forth almost as many times as you Ryguy!!! Its just that Tarrantino can put certain types off. Im just not sure that the majority of the guys in the academy will embrace his genius.
    I actually still have Django for best o screenplay-as of this very moment!!

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

      Well, I really can't see anything other than Django winning anymore, so that's why I have it as my prediction.

  • Chris138

    I wouldn't be surprised if Django Unchained goes home empty handed. I feel like Silver Linings Playbook might do better than initially expected. Although I do think Emmanuelle Riva wins, and I hope she does.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    If the voting is purely based on performance (and not favorites, 'i've given it to waltz before' etc.,) it has to be Waltz. Just because there were couple of scenes in Silver Linings where he screams the hell out and a very aggressive performance in couple scenes doesn't make it a better performance than Waltz. I really hope Waltz wins.

  • chriscarmichael

    If Django does not win these Oscars I will lose it. Its the only exciting , great film nominated for anything tonite and it deserves Supp. Actor and Screenplay.

  • Badge

    Although I do like a few of QT's films I've never thought of his screenplays as anything other than "routines" that he comes up with and then shoehorns into a story.