Bullock's Oscar Prospects Get a Thanksgiving Box-Office Boost
Families make their holiday decision
Like a bonehead, I forgot to add Sandra Bullock to my Oscar predictions for Best Actress when I updated my list on Wednesday, but the error has been corrected as I am reminded once again that a solid performance coupled with box-office success can do wonders for someone's Oscar prospects.
It's not a huge surprise, but The Blind Side edged out The Twilight Saga: New Moon at the Thanksgiving Day box-office in a narrow race earning Bullock's family-friendly feature $ 9.5 million with New Moon coming in a close second with $9.2 million. Considering the family nature of The Blind Side this isn't much of a shocker and I would still expect New Moon to take the weekend, but it will be interesting to see how high Blind Side can go.
The Blind Side has now hit $60.1 million through its first full week in theaters.
I have updated the Oscar predictions for the Best Actress category, and if you are interested in the complete picture click here.
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Please let this trend continue, just so Twilight can fall to second place and make a steeper decline than expected.
@Colin: Yeah. New Moon wasn't very good (C).
New Moon came within one million dollars of doubling Twilights friday's gross from last year. It's still on track, but no longer surprising on the upside. Apparantly, teens go to the mall on Black Friday for the deals.
Come on Brad, nobody predicted The Blind Side to get this big of a bounce. As for how far it will go, I seriously believe it will pass The Hangover. As you say, considering it's family nature, it should be able to beat an 'R' rated movie. But can it pass Forrest Gump?
sandra bullock +good actress=oxymoron!
I saw The Blind Side yesterday,and I think it will do well. Despite a PG-13 rating, it's quite a family-friendly film, which is good for the holidays. They threw in barely enough language and one fight to get the rating; it could be shown on U.S. network TV without cuts. Bullock is quite good here, and somehow the film mostly transcends (I'm not sure how, but it does) the predictable nature of this genre of film.
Oscar and Razzie nomination the same year! Only she could pull that off.
@steve:
that would be pretty amazing
People have already re-narrated Sandra's involvement with All About Steve, saying that she was impressively able to pull in over $30 million for a stinker of a movie that got only 6% on Rotten Tomatoes. Two huge movies in one year will do that for you.
@mfan: Is it a good news?
The BLIND SIDE is part of a vast govt operation to brainwash us that interracial is good, White equals black etc. Obama voters and the politically correct will be drooling all over this movie
Let's do some movie math: The Blind Side
$60 million Gross so far
$48 million Possible weekend: 2X thursday, 2X thursday, 1X thursday=common pattern
$74 million Weekend 3, 4, and 5 based on 30% drop (which I consider conservative)
$33million Weekend 6 and 7 based on Xmas/New Years hold previous weekend (last time Xmas was on friday)
That's $215 million NOT including 20 days of week day sales, many of which should be strong e.g. Xmas week. Maybe $60 miliion??? Then the end of it's run.
@mfan:
I cannot see "The Blind Side" passing "The Hangover." Yes, it looks like it may rise this weekend instead of drop. However, the movies that normally rise on Thanksgiving weekend are also the biggest droppers the weekend after. Last year, "Bolt" rose 1% in its second weekend, then fell 63% in its 3rd. Similarly, "Madagascar 2" fell only 9% Thanksgiving weekend, then over 64% the next. That is because, like "The Blind Side," they have a wide family appeal that gives them a huge kick over the holidays–a kick which is suddenly taken away the weekend after and felt all the more acutely for its lack.
Meanwhile, films like "Twilight" and "Role Models" (-62.2% and -27.9%) didn't have as big a family appeal over Thanksgiving weekend, making their falls the following weekend a lot better (-50.5% and -51.3%). Also, "Australia," which wasn't much of a family film, also had a smaller drop in the weekend after Thanksgiving (-52.4%).
So Blind Side is going to drop big next weekend. Best-case scenario? It surprises us all and only drops 52-55%. But it is very likely it'll fall 65%. However, in the weekends following it will have decent holds, and it'll be a presence in theaters through Christmastime. A positive estimate would put its domestic total at $184mil… okay, let's round it up to $185mil. But not The Hangover's $277mil, and definitely not Forrest Gump's $330mil.
new moon was good but 2012 was a million times better haven't seen the blind side yet cause every time i go it's sold out
Brad, i see that you have updated the best actress category WITHOUT Marion Cotillard for Nine. Remember, The Weinsteins are pushing her for lead not supporting
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa? I really didn't see that coming? Than again I think Bullock deserves this, I've loved most of her movies.
The blind side has got to be more "inspirational" than new moon. Sandra's oscar campaign should be energy drinks that say "team sandra".
An oscar nomination contender the same year as "all about steve". Wow. Hey, eddie murphy followed up dreamgirls with norbit. Why not?
I'm so happy you only forgot to put Sandra Bullock on the Best Actress Contenders list, I think this is more than worthy Performance for Sandra! She is well out of her comfort zone and pulls it of to the T!
I hope she can get the Nomination, and then Crossed Fingers for the Win!
She wasn't bad in 'All About Steve' though, It was the movie storyline that wasn't great and it did great ath The B.O!!!
@JM: We disagree about the best case scenario for next weekend. Thank you for your point of view. I will be watching to see if you're right. @Eli proved to be right about there being room for an 'R' rated action film during Thanksgiving. As this is my first year watching the box office results, I'm sure I will learn a lot.
Early Friday estimates have this coming in at $16M for the day. With a 2.5 multiplier, that would be a great second weekend total of $40M, representing a 15% up-tick from last weekend's opening.
Also, regarding the final cume – I think there's reason to believe that this movie could be leggy. If the opening weekend represents 20% of the final take, then we're looking at an excellent domestic total of around $170M.
Of course, if she does get an Oscar nomination for this role, then all bets are off!
To be honest w/you guys, my pick for the biggest dropper is one that should be opening poorly to begin with: Ninja Assassin.
Just saw The Blind Side again and only about 10 to 15% of the audience looked 18 years old or younger. Just saying.
A bit surprised New Moon is such a blockbuster
and will make more money than Twilight
But the blind side. Im dumbfounded by that
Im in the UK this page is the 1st time ive heard of the film
How the heck has is it taken so much money?
A Sandra Bullock movie being THAT popular
I've nothing against her but a huge gross
like that. A gross close to $ 200 million being predicted
Wow
@JM: Taken from The Hollywood Reporter:
"Meantime, "Blind Side" gave its topliner a new personal best, surpassing Bullock's $33.6 million bow with June's "The Proposal." "Blind Side" audiences skewed 59% female, with 75% of patrons aged 25 or older."
This is a movie for all ages, not one to go to only if you need someplace to take the kids.
Looking at what I just posted, I just realized that many peoples final box office estimates for The Blind Side are being pegged at a little better than The Proposal, since TBS opened a little better than that. That never even occured to me as TBS is not a romantic comedy! TBS is a different kind of film with a different box office destiny.
Sandra Bullock should be nominated at Oscar. I hope "The Blind SIde" will be released soon in Spain.