Box-Office Wrap-Up: Aug. 8 – Aug. 10, 2008
COMMENTS
Dark Knight crushes Pineapple's poor planning.
Dark Knight did it again. I do firmly believe that opening early hurt Pineapple Express. Word of mouth probably was lukewarm and the truly excited people saw it on Wednesday. So they sort of went out of their way to lose the weekend. Well done, gents.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
A month straight. In this day and age that's incredible. I still think this will have a tough time cracking $500m domestically – boxofficemojo.com has it at $440m currently.
Result: 26.0 million (My rank: #2, $2.0m off)
The film has made $40m since it's been released. All of that would have come Fri-Sun if they would have waited. Idiots.
Result: 22.4 million (My rank: #1, $3.7m off)
Sixty percent drop much? This one has been measured – and found wanting.
Result: 16.1 million (My rank: #3, $2.9m off)
Remarkably this one did almost the exact same number as the first ($3900 vs $3800 per theater). That means they gained no new fans in three years. Impressive.
Result: 10.7 million (My rank: #4, $4m off)
I actually nailed the dollar amount but Mamma Mia! found a way to screw me over one last time.
Result: 8.9 million (My rank: #6, Dead On)
6. Mamma Mia!
$244 million worldwide means they now have reason to be dancing in the streets. Do the math. The budget was 45 cents. The sing-a-long DVD will bank. So it's party time around Universal right now.
Result: 8.0 million (My rank: #5, $1.2m off)
As it turns out this was way better than Mummy 3. Five years ago you wouldn't have predicted that, eh?
Result: 4.8 million (My rank: #7, $1.4m off)
8. Hancock
You got me Peter Berg! Although picking Swing Vote to do anything in its second weekend was clearly lunacy. However, it appears Berg has other problems to deal with.
Result: 3.3 million (My rank: #10, $1.2m off)
9. Swing Vote
The good news is that the production budget was only $21m. Suddenly that $12m total at the box doesn't look so bad!
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #8, $.1m off)
10. WALL-E
I'm watching Team USA play China right now. Think I'm gonna get back to that. But the story for Wall-E is the same as it was last week. It's all going to come down to the overseas box office. Pixar better start making some foreign friends real quick-like.
Result: 3.0 million (My rank: #9, $.6m off)
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I think The Dark Knight will break 500 million before Sept. 1st. It still pulled in 22 million last Monday through Thursday. Let's say it takes a 30% drop this M-Th compared to last week. That's 15 million. Then lets say next weekend it takes another 40% drop compared to this weekend and call that 16 million. I think the film may make a little more than 31, but who knows. Run similar math for the next week and let say 11 for the week and 11 for the weekend. That's 494. With the week of 25th-31st it'll definitely bust past 500 on that Friday if not earlier.
Once The Dark Knight gets around 10 a weekend, that's where things will get interesting. Sometimes films with legs fall in that range and just keep steady for several weeks. Plugging away 5-8 mill a weekend plus 3-4 mill Mon-Thu. I could see The Dark Knight doing this since there isn't much competition in September. At the moment, I don't belong in the It May Beat Titanic camp. But I definitely see it grossing more than the popular 515 estimate out there. Somewhere between 530-550.
Any chances it has to beat Titanic are gone now. While The Dark Knight has had an spectacular run so far, $600 million is just too huge a number to beat. Specially considering the $20 million weekends are ending now (unless next week the film only drops 23%, which is unlikely). The only way I see TDK beating Titanic (something I don't think it will) is if it keeps under 30% drops for weekends and weekdays, gets a huge push by Warner Brothers around Halloween and then again around Christmas and a lot of award attention. So realisticly, TDK won't be able to beat Titanic. But I agree with you on your finish. My guess is that TDK will be around $530 million at the end of October and finish between $540-$550 million. Depending on how much the studio decides to push TDK around the holidays, something I think will be limited considering there is already talk of a november release date for the DVD.