Box-Office Oracle: Sep. 26 – Sep. 28, 2008
COMMENTS
Eagle Eye will win - but will it crack $30 million?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week in a Row
1. Eagle Eye
As fall starts, so does a new Oracle streak. This is an easy call at the top spot – the only real drama is dollars. I've seen projections as high as $37m. For my part I looked at Enemy of the State and then subtracted a bit because Shia isn't Will Smith.
Estimate: $23.9 million
Frankly, this looks like a punch to the face. Thus, I can't give it more than $4750 per screen.
Estimate: $11.9 million
It isn't a good film, but it is the only film that appears to be a good film on the board. Appearances count for a lot on a film's opening weekend.
Estimate: $7.4 million
This projection might be high. But something has to make money this weekend, right? So I couldn't knock it more than 52%.
Estimate: $7.2 million
5. Fireproof
This will be a sneaky religious hit, like The Visitor. Kirk Cameron has been doing heavy press and it has a built in audience. Still, we'd all like to see a Growing Pains movie sooner rather than later, right?
Estimate: $6.8 million
How long until A Serious Man comes out? A Year? The production budget here was $37m and it has made $37m at the box office… which means it's still at least three weeks away from seeing a profit.
Estimate: $6.6 million
7. Igor
I know almost nothing about this film. They screened it on a Saturday morning and sleep was far more important. You know how that goes.
Estimate: $4.0 million
I've got to predict bad things for it because the entire universe, all at once, decided they hated Dane Cook. Now we await his comeback!
Estimate: $3.8 million
Gotta be the end of Avnet. The production budget was $60. So this project will be in the red until the end of time – unless they can figure out a way to sell a ton of Pacino / De Niro lunchboxes.
Estimate: $3.4 million
This film's bottom line was stung by all the new releases this weekend. 14 by my count. I think that's too many, perhaps just three good ones next time, eh fellas?
Estimate: $3.2 million
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You gotta be kidding. Applying some of your "per theater" math from your #2 pick to other titles shows some outrageous over-estimates. Since Fireproof is at only 839 locations, your guess comes to over $8100 per! Not going to happen, especially since some of the theaters showing it near me are only giving it 2 shows a day (at 4 and 7, while some other flick takes the 1 & 10pm spots). Also Miracle At St. Anna comes to $6245 per theater which I also think is too high, but not quite impossible. We'll see Saturday when the Friday estimates come in.
Correction: My comment above about 2 shows a day applies to Forever Strong (the rugby movie that opens today), NOT to Fireproof. I agree that 14 new releases is way too many for 1 week. I'm already mixing up 2 movie titles starting with the letter F. I'm also disappointed Choke won't make the top 10, but 434 screens ain't much. Sigh.
Glad you caught your own mistake :) But yeah, the math on Fireproof is based on The Visitor, and $8k is easily done given that audience.
If I had to bet over/under my St. Anna number I'd bet under too – but it is one hell of a trailer and limited screens tend to drive up a per theater average due to the scarcity factor.
Oh, and just for kicks I have Choke at 15th, after House Bunny, at $1.6m.