Box-Office Oracle: Nov. 23 – Nov. 25, 2007
COMMENTS
It's an easy call at the top but slots three through ten are gonna be tight.
#1 movie predicted correctly: One Weeks in a Row
1. Enchanted
This Friday Oracle posting, knowing Thursday's results, is like stealing. For that I'm sorry. However, given the tea leaves I've been handed that show Enchanted's dominance I'd be foolish not to pen it in at $8750 per screen. Which is what I'm doing. As I'm not foolish.
Estimate: $32.1 million
2. Beowulf
After Enchanted it gets light though. The issue is too much competition. Last Year Happy Feet won Thanksgiving weekend by only losing 10% of its steam from the week prior. Beowulf won't do that, too gimmicky, but under 40% isn't out of the question as folks seek refuge from the shopping/family time.
Estimate: $18.5 million
From here it becomes sort of a nightmare, even knowing Wed/Thurs results. The issue is the family dollar. Where will it head? This Christmas is a film aimed at a starved film community, the African American one, my only concern is saturation. Here's hoping everybody is on board to support this throughout the weekend.
Estimate: $12.1 million
4. Hitman
Hitman and The Mist really hurt each other by opening the same weekend, and word of mouth will crush Hitman as the weekend wears on. However, it still looks better than a random fog. When choosing between two bad films take the one that looks better, that's my motto.
Estimate: $10.9 million
It's going to be close, like I said, and the fact that The Mist and Hitman are separated by only 35 theatres doesn't help matters either. If I had to do it over again I'd probably take The Mist but I'm already way late with this piece as I was off in Oregon shopping for wine and shoes. Black Friday baby!
Estimate: $10.1 million
6. Fred Claus
See, this is a classic example of a bad film that won't lose much due to release date. They hit the holiday weekend perfectly. Now just imagine if this had been a funny film! They would have had to make a new money printing machine.
Estimate: $9.5 million
It's the one "safety" movie I can give people. Some may not like No Country for Old Men but I can send almost anyone to American Gangster and know they won't want to kill me. I've already done it once this weekend, so hopefully my brother's $20 counts towards this total.
Estimate: $8.5 million
8. Bee Movie
This will have a devil of a time finding footing in a bloated family market. By my count there are five family films on the board, how can one little animation stand up against Disney's Enchanted? Sorry Jerry, all that PR you did three weeks ago has been long forgotten.
Estimate: $8.2 million
9. August Rush
This is one terrible film. However, it did get stronger from Wednesday to Thursday which means that sappy hearted folk might be taken in. The Notebook crowd I guess. It will be just enough to sneak this disaster in to the top ten.
Estimate: $7.4 million
Real movie fans will support this one, allowing it to eek out a tiny victory against Magorium's. Yes, that's bold, but that's what the Oracle is all about. We'll recap this Sunday morning for all the fans.
Estimate: $7.0 million
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The Mist was awful! I was really looking forward to it but Darabont bombed if you want my opinion! Sure the ended was wicked twisted but other than that that dumbass religious woman made me want to walk out everytime she opened her mouth!!! It doesn't piss me off when I waste my money on bulls**t but it does pisses me off when I waste two hours of my life on bulls**t!!!
I agree with you 95% tycox, however, as much as Ms. Carmody bothered me the ending bothered me even more. It was messed up for the sake of being messed up, there was no point to it. That is unless Darabont is just saying we should have absolutely no faith in humanity no matter what they believe, which, for me, is a little too bleak and I like bleak.