Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 12 – Jan. 14
COMMENTS
My Oracle is Soracle
#1 movie predicted correctly: Two Weeks In a Row
Did you know that no movie in the past three years has held the #1 slot for four weekends in a row (as Night is gunning for)? It's true, not even Pirates: Dead Man's Chest, it was beaten by Miami Vice in late July.
Estimate: $17.1 million
2. Dreamgirls
I can't figure out this release schedule for the life of me. This week we're up to around 1800 theatres, double last week. Topeka, here Dreamgirls comes!
Estimate: $12.7 million
It wouldn't shock me if at got as high at $13m. Drumline debuted at $12.6 and Step Up over $20m. Really, this is a decent flick and the only thing working against it is that January blows the yard.
Estimate: $10.6 million
William Smith is now the biggest black actor in Hollywood. Bigger even than Nick Cannon. Turning this one, a potential sapfest, into box office gold is one more home run for the resume.
Estimate: $10.3 million
5. Primeval
If you listen to the podcast then you know Brad blew the roof right off this ad campaign. To me it wouldn't matter who the killer is though, a bad movie is a bad movie.
Estimate: $9.5 million
I am terrified here, because this could do any amount from $8m to $14m. This is mostly based on 4 percent of Box Office Mojo users saying that they would see this opening weekend. Believe it or not that's second only to Alpha Dog on the new releases, ahead of Stomp. So yeah, I'm betting the farm on a limited data set. Crap.
Estimate: $9.0 million
I just don't know why Swank would've jumped on this script. She's always taken more offbeat roles. Was this just a paycheck movie? It is fresh over there on rottentomatoes so maybe I'm being overly harsh.
Estimate: $8.6 million
It didn't gain any theatres, even though it performed well. Welcome to the crazy house where up is down and down is paisley.
Estimate: $8.4 million
9. Alpha Dog
This is at 1300 theatres or so, and thus it can't compete with the big boys this weekend. That, plus the delays, plus the January release are a sure sign that no one official believes in the project. Why should we?
Estimate: $7.0 million
Another mini-release, the studios are all tip-toeing around right now. "Egh, just let Stiller have the money" is the new slogan around California.
Estimate: $4.8 million
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Wait a minute. You list "Children of Men" at #8, even though you're predicting it makes $10.7 million, which should put it at #3, because right now it's stuck between two movies that you are predicting make $8.6 mil & $7 mil. Makes no sense! Typo! LOL.
In between writing and posting new theatre counts were released for Children of Men, thus the box office dollar screw-up. My bad, although I originally really thought it would gain screens based on how well it did last weekend… as usual, I was wrong.