Box-Office Oracle: Aug. 15 – Aug. 17, 2008

Brad noted today that the early returns for Tropic Thunder aren't good. But this one is going to build. I can feel it.

Estimate: $33.1 million

This one is not going to build. I can feel that too. However, given the family friendly PG rating and the "Star Wars fans will see anything phenomenon" this one should crack $20 million. You could too if you had nearly 3500 theaters behind you.

Estimate: $20.7 million

This was not a very fun weekend to project because there were 16 films vying for the top ten slots. Annoying. In other news I can pretty much guarantee Dark Knight won't win a fifth weekend straight. If it did I'd be happy. But it won't.

Estimate: $15.8 million

I love how they scheduled a press screening for this one and then thought "Ah, screw it. Why bother faking?" That means this one is probably terrible. Which means not many people will see it.

Estimate: $10.7 million

It's definitely going to be hurt by Tropic Thunder being funnier. So I've got to drop it 55%.

Estimate: $10.5 million

It won't be hurt by anything in particular. It will just be hurt by being a bad film. Still, this film has stolen $218m worldwide because of a giant $141m overseas. Man, what the foreign markets must think of us. Sorry guys!

Estimate: $7.8 million

I've seen some higher projections elsewhere but I can't see it. Why wouldn't this sink like a stone? It's got a rabid audience that's also completely tiny. Sure, the first one only dropped 42% in its second weekend but that was back in June of 2005. Times have changed.

Estimate: $5.1 million

They are still advertising it. Amazing. Future filmmakers of the world, your course is clear! You need an older foreign pop group and some cheap looking sets. After that it's pure profit.

Estimate: $4.9 million

Movies that open this week that won't be making the top ten: Henry Poole is Here and Fly Me to the Moon 3-D. I just felt like we should mention them. Maybe pour out some liquor too.

Estimate: $4.7 million

Given the threesome angle and the trailer featuring Scar-Jo and Javier Bardem I see no reason this one won't make Match Point dollars. Why not? It's actually a decent film too. I'll be cheering for it all the way.

Estimate: $3.9 million