Box-Office Wrap-Up: 'The Lion King in 3D' Crushes the Competition
COMMENTS
No one stood a chance as the 17-year-old film dominated
You know, when you think about it it's not that surprising, but with so few family friendly films in theaters it shouldn't shock any of us that a 17-year-old classic took the top spot by a massive margin over a one week holdover and three new releases. Let's have a look.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
The Lion King
There hasn't been a kid-centric film released since the August 19th bomb Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the World and before that The Smurfs on July 29, so yeah, families were heading out to the theater to check out The Lion King and are willing to pay a little extra to see it in 3D. Nice job Disney, I'm sure you're licking your chops and wondering if you need to begin pressing more copies of the upcoming Lion King Blu-ray which hits shelves on Oct. 4.
As far as the cumulative below goes, I am considering this just more money on top of the overall total for the film in all its forms. It appears Box Office Mojo is doing the same.
In the prediction department the film did 2.5 times what Laremy thought it would and out of the reader predictions only Chris Etrata went over $20 million with a $25 million prediction. Very nice work Chris.
Weekend: $29.3 million
Cummulative Total: $357.8 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 92%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $11.5 million was $17.8m off for a percentage error of 60.75%.
Cummulative Total: $357.8 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 92%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $11.5 million was $17.8m off for a percentage error of 60.75%.
2. Contagion
A 35% drop is pretty good and far better than I would have expected. This film was decent, but I'm not sure I have too many friends I would have suggested it to. It's a bit too sterile and one you could easy wait to see at home.
Weekend: $14.4 million (-35.7% drop) / Cume: $44.1 million / RottenTomatoes: 83%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $12.32 million, which is $2.08m off for a 14.44% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $12.32 million, which is $2.08m off for a 14.44% error.
3. Drive
It's too bad critics couldn't elevate this film higher than a third place finish as FilmDistrict certainly gave it a shot with a release in 2,886 theaters, but this just isn't a mass market film. Film lovers are going to love and I suspect it will fair very well with audiences over 30, but the younger ones may be a tougher sell even though they would be the ones that would probably like it even more.
On the prediction side Laremy did quite well and of the readers andrew almost nailed it with an $11.1 million prediction with several others predicting around $11.5-11.7m.
Weekend: $11 million / RottenTomatoes: 93%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.06 million, which is $0.94m off for a 8.55% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.06 million, which is $0.94m off for a 8.55% error.
4. The Help
As the weeks go by this gains momentum as a Best Picture contender. I'm not moving it out of my predictions yet, but I will say it's going to be a tough call until domestic critics get a chance to see Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Also, be on the lookout for Moneyball to move up the charts in the coming days.
Weekend: $6.4 million (-28.1% drop) / Cume: $147.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 73%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.97 million, which is $0.43m off for a 6.72% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.97 million, which is $0.43m off for a 6.72% error.
5. Straw Dogs
Rach and his $6.2 million prediction was the lowest prediction on the board and this film still managed to fall below that. Yikes, that's a bomb, but the $25 million production budget doesn't paint a terrible picture.
Weekend: $5 million / RottenTomatoes: 37%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.42 million, which is $3.42m off for a 68.4% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.42 million, which is $3.42m off for a 68.4% error.
Bomb #2 goes to I Don't Know How She Does It. Apparently it was made for $24 million, but I didn't talk to a single person that didn't think the trailers for this made it look like an absolute nightmare.
Weekend: $4.5 million / RottenTomatoes: 19%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $10.2 million, which is $5.7m off for a 126.67% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $10.2 million, which is $5.7m off for a 126.67% error.
7. The Debt
The Debt is just trucking along nicely, adding to its total and crossing its $20 million budgetary mark.
Weekend: $2.9 million (-38.3% drop) / Cume: $26.5 million / RottenTomatoes: 77%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $2.48 million, which is $0.42m off for a 14.48% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $2.48 million, which is $0.42m off for a 14.48% error.
8. Warrior
Whew, Lionsgate doesn't want to even think about what happened with this one, but if you're looking for a saving grace I would expect this one to move some units on DVD and Blu-ray, especially if they're smart enough to hold off releasing it until The Dark Knight Rises hits theaters next summer. Can a movie studio actually wait that long to release a home video in this day and age?
Weekend: $2.7 million (-48.1% drop) / Cume: $9.9 million / RottenTomatoes: 83%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $2.75 million, which is $0.05m off for a 1.85% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $2.75 million, which is $0.05m off for a 1.85% error.
The production budget is listed as $93 million. The film has made over $377 million worldwide. Yet, no sequel announcement. Are we ready to call that budget a load of BS?
Weekend: $2.6 million (-31.6% drop) / Cume: $171.6 million / RottenTomatoes: 82%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.85 million, which is $0.75m off for a 28.85% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.85 million, which is $0.75m off for a 28.85% error.
10. Colombiana
The fact this film cost $40 million to make is a bit surprising, but then again I only mention that because I have nothing else to say.
Weekend: $2.3 million (-41% drop) / Cume: $33.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 28%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $2.18 million, which is $0.12m off for a 5.22% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $2.18 million, which is $0.12m off for a 5.22% error.
In other news, did you know Cowboys & Aliens is still in theaters? It brought in $537,000 from 614 theaters and now sits at $98.8 million. Can it make it to $100 million?
Next week sees the release of a whole slew of films including Taylor Lautner's Abduction, a limited release of Dolphin Tale, Killer Elite, a New York and Los Angeles release of Machine Gun Preacher, Moneyball and a three city release of Puncture. What will take the top spot? Lautner or Pitt? My money is on the latter and in a big way.
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This week's MVP: Christina Hendricks
She excels with her performances in 'Drive' and 'I Don’t Know How She Does It' and proves her talent and once and for all to those who can’t see past her ample cleavage, fuller legs and fuller backside. These roles are taking her to new places – less 'Mad Men' and more mainstream movies.
Decent for drive but it was crazy to think it had the hype to top the boxoffice
'The film has made over $377 million worldwide. Yet, no sequel announcement. Are we ready to call that budget a load of BS?'
Why do you think that every successful film NEEDS to have a sequel???? It's really annoying!
Because it was quite obviously DESIGNED to be the start of a new franchise telling the story?
We will never know, but maybe Fox has learned something from 'Rise' success and is waiting for a script before greenlighting a sequel?
Let's face it, that movie made money because it's GOOD, which is a miracle actually. So why risk the franchise (again!) by releasing a bad sequel? Wait for a proper script then announce.
I don't know if that's the reason behind the 'no sequel yet', but we could hope, right?
Did I say need? Man, I NEED to watch my words a little closer don't I Ben?
Yeah, it's getting a little annoying.
Apes: "Why haven't they announced a sequel?" "Why haven't they announced a sequel?!!"
Bridesmaids: "Why haven't they announced a sequel?" "Why haven't they announced a sequel?!!"
So much so that when they don't, conspiracy theories start (budget must be BS).
Just chill. Maybe execs are just wising up. Like Leandro said, movie made money because it's good. Rushing and scrambling for a contrived sequel then is probably a bad idea.
In Brad's defense…
The writer's or producer's behind Rise of the Planet of the Apes did mention they saw this as a trilogy.
And a Bridesmaids sequel is very possible. After seeing The Hangover Part II, a comedy sequel, make a ton of money they prob would love to greenlight a sequel. Plus the Hangover 2 proved the film doesn't even have to be good. The sequel could have Kristen Wiig's character getting married to the cop.
I'm very surprised by this. I didn't think that people would go to theatre to watch a movie they have already seen before and could watch at home. I guess 3D still has some appeal.
And Dolphin Tale is not a limited release. I've heard that it is getting over 3,200 theatres next weekend.
Ithink that Abduction will be on top next weekend or maybe The Lion King will stay on top
I don't think that $4.4 million overseas for The Lion King is right………This BOM link paints a very different picture.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=lionking.htm
Plus (no joke) I know a friend who in the UK in 1994 went to see it 27 times. She has the ticket stubbs to prove it.
Anyway, I guess it shows the never ending appeal of a genuine classic of the Disney catalogue. This will do large business over the next couple of weeks.
I had to laugh at the performance of 'I Don't Know How She Does It' though. The film looked excruciatingly bad in ads.
Geez, you're right. No idea what I was looking at when I saw that number. I can't even find it again.
So they're going to add the 3D re-release numbers to the movie's total?!
Well, that's going to be… Interesting! Maybe that will make 'The Lion King' a billionaire movie?
(box-office mojo totals are at over 800 million right now!!!)
Can't wait to see what Fox will do with Titanic's numbers next year…
I think it's general practice to add re-releases to cumulative totals for all films that get re-released and that's been the case for a while. But BOM usually lists a breakdown of what amounts of the total relate to which re-release.
Star Wars didn't get to $450 million only from 1977 money. I think the Toy Story 1/2 re-release was listed separately and not be added because they were a double feature.
So I'd expect Titanic to be the same. Except it was Paramount that took home the domestic gross in 1997/98 and Fox that took international so I don't know if that business arrangement would apply to the split of re-release grosses.
Wow, what a weekend for The Lion King. It had the market cornered and clearly people still love it. I wouldn't be surprised if Disney tries to make this an annual thing with their older hand-drawn animation…of course they'll convert them to 3D, even though The Lion King would have done the same business without it. But they're trying to keep the gimmick alive any way they can.
Next weekend is between Moneyball and Abduction, but I think the great reviews and Pitt's presence will give Moneyball the win over teen werewolf. It should do somewhere around or over $20 million, with Abduction somewhere in the teens. Killer Elite should hit the low teens maybe; Dolphin Tale will be a non-issue (and what the hell is Morgan Freeman doing in that?).
Techically Disney already did that with Nightmare Before Christmas. Warner Bros. also did that with Polar Express.
And I thought Drive was amazing. It's not gonna do well financially though; I could tell most of my audience was bored with it and it has a low Cinemascore (C- I think). It was actually more of an art house noir even than I expected, but I loved it. I won't call it the best film of the year though; Midnight in Paris still holds that title for me. Drive is #2.
Abduction is the most likely to win next weekend with Taylor Lautner in the lead and a new Twilight movie coming in November, and all the buzz surrounding that.
Moneyball could give Abduction a run for its money, though, with Dolphin Tale (Boxofficemojo says it will be released in 3200+ theaters) and Killer Elite looking like candidates for a flop.
Lion King is greatest animated movie of all time (and one of the greatest movies of all time). Period.
To me that accolade goes to either Chicken Run or Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit. Those are 2 films that deserve rereleases to show Americans how to do a good animation.
People may be underestimating Dolphin Tale.
> Warner Brothers is giving it 3200+ theaters, indicating the kind of confidence that may indicate reviews will be strong.
> Knowing nothing about the new releases, other than the promotional record of the studios releasing them would put Dolphin Tale in second place (among new releases).
> There may be some built in promotion of the movie in the sense that people have been raising money, here and there, for charitable causes related to the film's story.
> There was a rumor of Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth attending the premiere. They didn't, but it made many young people aware that the film exists.
> Having a couple of Country Music stars should also give it a small boost.
I think this film is going to overperform in terms of people's expectations.
…If Lion King 3D being out doesn't steal it's thunder. It will be interesting to see Lion King's drop.
On a side note, having The Lion KIng double the total of it's nearest competitor makes Brad and Laremy's discussions about whether people actually want spoilers to their movies, quite funny! I guess the research is right for the majority of people: that a few spoilers can help people feel more involved with the film.
Lion King is a modern masterpiece and iconic for animation. I am SO happy it performed so well! I love the old-school, classic Disney films. There is a quality to the dialogue, complexity of plotlines, themes, voice-acting, humor, and music that do not exist in many of the Pixar films. I think it is very underrated and ranks as one of Disney's finest achievements! It never fails to make me cry and become overemotional. It is just an experience one cannot get on a tv screen. These Disney movies are just much better to watch on the big-screen. Also, you factor in that many kids do not own the dvd yet because most people bought in video
back in the '90's. There is a great deal of sentimental value. Aladdin will probably re-release next year given its 20th anniversary.
I really hope a quality movie like Moneyball is able to beat generic junk like Abduction with an actor of limited range like Taylor Lautner. The Twi-cast hasn't fared too well at the box office outside of the franchise, then again this is an action movie so it will have more of a draw. It depends on if Abduction has a broader appeal than the Twi-hard fanbase. Also, the real life romance btw Taylor and Lily and the PR about that might draw his fans out more. I would highly encourage people to see Moneyball. It is one of Pitt's best performances, has a sharp script, and is bound to be an Oscar contender. I am just worried because it is a genre movie and not everybody is into baseball.
A friend of mine saw a screening of Dolphin Tale and said it was very heart-warming and a good tearjerker for families. I think Abduction will bomb critically.
My predictions:
1. Moneyball $20-30
2. Dolphin Tale $20-25
3. Abduction $12-$20
4. Lion King $10-18
5. Killer Elite $10-15
Personally I actually preferred the animation style of Hanna-Barbera. Simple concepts are normally the best ones. But that's just me. Some say that dare I say it, Dreamworks Animation is essentially the modern day equivilant to Hanna-Barbera.
I'm actually shocked to see the amount of people show up for "Lion King 3D." It was mostly younger families treating their kids, but also a fair number of single twenty-somethings and teenagers showed up to see it. Never underestimate the power of a Disney classic.
I'm willing to bet money that Disney will extend the run for another two weeks. And then see Disney add "Aladdin" 3D for a two-week release on September 14, 2012. If that is successful too, then I expect "The Little Mermaid" 3D for September 13, 2013.
They already did it with Nightmare Before Christmas and that came from the same era. Warner Bros did it with Polar Express if I remember rightly.
I'm also willing to bet that Zemeckis' version of Christmas Carol will get rereleased on a yearly basis if it becomes a new X-Mas classic.
Brad, any idea how the Star Wars BR sold this weekend?
You have to wait until next tuesday: http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/weekly/thisweek.php