Box-Office Wrap-Up: Sep. 4 – Sep. 6, 2009
COMMENTS
Movie theaters were empty this weekend!
Crikey. That didn't go well. It was the worst weekend of the year, the worst since the first weekend of Dec '08. Alert commenter JAB was the only one I saw that even had The Final Destination winning. Yikes. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
The streak comes to an end, even though I overrated this film in its second weekend. It fell nearly 55 percent – clearly the 3-D is another frontloading factor in a sea of frontloading factors. Still, it becomes only the fifth film to repeat in 2009.
Result: 12.4 million (My rank: #2, $2.0m off)
Many folks had Gamer to win, but Gamer got destroyed. Does anyone think this could pull a bigger Sunday than expected and restore my streak? I know, I know, probably not – the word of mouth here is probably brutal.
Result: 11.2 million (My rank: #1, $4.6m off)
A 43.9 percent drop, this is now a mathematical certainty. It gets easier when people definitively love or hate a product.
Result: 10.8 million (My rank: #4, $.1m off)
4. Gamer
No budget is listed, but it has to be more than $30m or so, right? I mean, they had people controlling Gerard Butler's every move! Technology like that can't be cheap.
Result: 9.0 million (My rank: #4, $3.5m off)
5. District 9
Hey, where did Extract go? Anyone see that one?
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #7, $.6m off)
6. Halloween II
I finally nailed a placement. Huzzah. Halloween 2 passed the $25m mark this weekend… but the budget was only $15m. It looks as though the "small achievement" horror releasing cycle will continue.
Result: 5.6 million (My rank: #6, $1.7m off)
I think we can all agree on one thing: this was like predicting a turtle race.
Result: 5.2 million (My rank: #9, $.9m off)
Tranformers: Revenge of the Fallen made $400m domestically. This one will cross $150m domestically next weekend. So I'd say, upon final reflection, that audiences felt very different about the films.
Result: 5.1 million (My rank: #8, $0.7m off)
I'll take some solace in the face my top ten all finished in the top ten. Sheesh, what a nightmare weekend. Next weekend doesn't look amazing, but it should have some films that can crack $20m.
Result: 4.2 million (My rank: #10, $.1m off)
10. Extract
Wow. A brutal result, probably one that guarantees Mike Judge is going to have a tough time inking movie deals going forward. Not enough theaters, strange marketing, and an overall whupping. I didn't really like the movie – but I sure wish it had done better than this.
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #5, $4.1m off)
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Painful to see Extract so low. It wasn't Office Space great, but a lot better than 4.1 mil in the #10 slot. It's too bad Gamer didn't do too well either. I love Neveldine/Taylor.
Inglorious Basterds is so close to 100 million. I think it will definitley be Tarantinos biggest groser. I'm curious to see how 9 does, seeing that opens Wednesday.
I finally saw Inglourious Basterds this weekend, blew me away. Definitely my favorite Tarantino film.
Damn, I thought the Labor Day weekend would give better holds to all movies in their 3rd weekend or later (I was very close, however, on my TDF and HII predictions). But since Labor Day was much later this year, many schools that normally would have started after Labor Day started August 31st, and holds weren't as good as normal. After all, this Labor Day is actually on the same time frame as last year's post-Labor-Day weekend, which I think was was the worst weekend in over a decade. So this year we get to skip the post-Labor-Day-weekend blah-flop and get straight into the mild September moneymakers with "9" and "I Can Do Bad All By Myself" and "Sorority Row" ("Whiteout" won't make much of anything, I fear).
Too bad about "Extract." I originally wanted to see it because I loved "Office Space" and "Idiocracy," but the plot looked pretty damn boring, and the reviews just sort of flatlined. There wasn't enough of a reaction from anyone, neither negative nor positive.
And damn "All About Steve" for getting $11 million OW. I hope it falls like a brick.
early picks for next week:
1. Sorority Row – $24 Million
2. I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $22 Million
3. Whiteout – $11 Million
4. Inglourious Basterds – $8.5 Million
5. The Final Destination – $5 Million
6. 9 – $4.5 Million
7. All About Steve – $4 Million
8. District 9 – $3.5 Million
9. Gamer – $3 Million
10. Julie & Julia – $2 Million
My theatre was record-book dead this weekend, now THAT was a boring shift. Too bad about Gamer and Extract. I too am a fan of Neveldine/Taylor's unique radical audacity (let's call it that) with their movies and they're mindless fun, Gamer didn't disappoint in that regard. Hopefully checking out Extract soon.
I agree with JAB, Sorority Row will take the crown if the horror crowd is still fiending more and the hot female leads will surely help that. Tyler Perry came in second in next weekend's slot from last year but he usually has the highest PTA.
Damn, it's a wonder his audience is so faithful. I still can't believe Madea Goes to Jail opened to $41m earlier this year and is one of the only films to have repeated.
No hope for 9 :( really?
Well, Gamer fail. The Final Destination win again. The horror will continue to arrive. Labor Day Weekend was a bad weekend. Let´s hope next weekend will be better.
I Can Do Bad All By Myself will almost sure win the weekend. $25M is my prediction. Whiteout have Kate Beckinsale, but don´t look a good movie, $13M is my prediction. Another movie that look bad (for me) is Sorority Row, $10.5M is my prediction. 9 is a good movie, but will fail to crack the $5M.
I guarantee you that "I Can Do Bad All By Myself" will win next weekend, and possibly win big. You put Madea into a movie and it blows up , atleast, for the first 2-3 weeks, then it dies!
Personally, I am more excited about "9" Tim Burton is a genius on screen, and this film looks amazing
So I read that Gamer only had a $12M budget. So I bet Lionsgate isn't too terribly disappointed.
Why all the low expectations for 9? As Coraline proved earlier this year, there is a market for dark animated movie. And it has been the top movie on almost every anticipation poll for September I have seen. And now that Gamer has flopped, the action audience is still left empty-handed, while the horror audience may suffer from overkill. Early predics:
1. I Can Do Bad All By Myself- 16 million
2. 9- 14 million
3. Sorority Row- 13 million
4. Whiteout- 9 million
5. Inglourious Basterds- 8 million
BOM says 9 only has 1,638 theatres on Wednesday. Its marketing has been good (9/9/9 release date, early teaser and "This is definitely not your little brother's animated movie" tagline are nice touches) but it's gonna need an insane theatre average to do some damage.
According to imdb its budget is about 30 million or so, much less than I would've thought. It certainly doesn't need a huge openning to successfull, but I still have higher hopes for it than others do.
@Eli: I do believe it could pull off a pretty impressive theater average… maybe even crack $9,000!
Ba bum bum.
No, but seriously. Coraline cracked $7,000, 9 is currently getting great reviews and has benefited, as you said, from a good marketing blitz. True, 9 is opening on a Wednesday, and doesn't have 3D to bump the price of its tickets, but I believe due to it having a smaller amount of theaters and the fact that Tim Burton and the director of Wanted are producing could slightly bump up the average to a slightly higher number than Coraline's. Coraline opened at $16.85 million with 2,299 theaters and an average of $7,329. I'm predicting that 9 will open at $12.82 million, with 1,638 theaters with an average of $7,829. I can't say I'm fully confident with this prediction, but hopefully it will be able to make an impact at the box office.
One thing I just thougth of was that Beatles Rock band comes out this Wednesday. Anyone think that migth have an effect on box-office?
With actual numbers in, "Inglourious Basterds" actually turned out to be the No. 2 movie. When was the last time a new release could place no better than third?