Box-Office Wrap-Up: Sep. 24 – Sep. 26, 2010
'Wall Street' takes number one while Affleck's 'Town' and Stone's 'Easy A' keep on performing
Well, the first little change you'll see with the Box-Office reporting is that I will be taking over wrap-up duties from Laremy who will now be sticking strictly to Oracle while I report on Friday and weekend results. There are a few more changes to come in the near future, and I would expect Laremy will do the Wrap-Up on occasion, but for now expect weekend results to come from me from here on out… That said, let's get to the numbers…
Laremy picked the #1 movie correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| In my Friday estimates column I said it looked like Wall Street would "be pushing hard for a $23 million" but I wouldn't be surprised "to see it end just above $20m." Well, it couldn't even managed that as the film's $8 million Friday turned into a meager $19 million weekend. Ouch. Interestingly enough, Laremy was damn near spot on with his prediction. Only problem he had this week was his drastic over-estimation of Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. As for predictions from the commenters, John Debono was closest with a $17.4 million, though Andrew did say he was "thinking around 20 million or so." Be sure to give precise numbers folks for better recognition. Debono's prediction was the only one below $20 million. Result: $19 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $19.114 million was $0.114m off for a percentage error of 0.6%. |
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Laremy put too much faith in the kids and families as his $31.1 million prediction for
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole was cut in half. I don't think this can be considered much of a surprise, especially this is the kind of result tracking predicted, and I'm still baffled at why Warner Bros. thought spending $100+ million on this film was a good idea. The story just doesn't seem like something little kids are going to be interested in seeing.
A lot of user predictions pegged the film for a big result as well so it wasn't only Laremy thinking families would be out to support the newest kid film following last week's lackluster return for Alpha and Omega.
Result: $16.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $31.159 million, which is $14.859m off for a 91.16% error.
Only a 32.8% dip for Ben Affleck's The Town is solid business as it went from a $23.8 million opening weekend to a $16 million second weekend. Bustray pegged it for $15.9 million, but most of the commenters were really close on this one. I wondered last week just how good word of mouth would be and apparently it was quite strong. Even though I wasn't head over heels for this movie, it is nice to see audiences supporting something that's at least representative of good filmmaking.
Result: $16 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $14.405 million, which is $1.595m off for a 9.97% error.
Not quite as good as The Town's performance, but Easy A's 39.5% dip is respectable and shows Emma Stone may have the star power we've been looking for. She's a unique young actress that doesn't have the same looks as the rest and it appears to me she may have both the talent for the dramatic and the comedic. Are we looking at the new Sandra Bullock here?
Result: $10.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $10.107 million, which is $0.593m off for a 5.54% error.
I didn't hear anything good about
You Again and apparently neither did anyone else as this one went from a $2.75 million Friday to an $8.3 million weekend. That's some bad word-of-mouth folks. Laremy dramatically over-estimated this one as well, but John Debono and Bustray come through, both with a scary close $8.2 million pick.
It seems the Betty White craze is finally coming to a close. Thank god.
Result: $8.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $14.085 million, which is $5.785m off for a 69.7% error.
It amuses me slightly to hear people say good things about this film almost apologetically or with a certain level of surprise as if something from M. Night Shyamalan could or would never be good again. Shyamalan has some good stories in him, the last few just haven't been his best. He obviously came up with something decent here and director John Erick Dowdle and writer Brian Nelson were able to turn it into something audiences wanted to watch.
Devil's now made $21.7 million on a reported $10 million budget. Not too shabby eh?
Result: $6.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.263 million, which is $1.137m off for a 17.77% error.
Resident Evil: Afterlife is now at $52 million domestically plus another $100+ million overseas. Sony/Screen Gems did hold on to a lot of those foreign territories so Resident Evil 5 seems a lot more likely now after last week I completely overlooked foreign markets.
Result: $4.9 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.301 million, which is $0.401m off for a 8.18% error.
It doesn't really surprise me this one isn't performing too well, the title doesn't exactly pop off the page (unless it had been a porn movie) and the animation doesn't look too great. At least Legend of the Guardians has some of the best animation and 3D I've seen in a long, long time.
Result: $4.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.106 million, which is $0.594m off for a 12.64% error.
It's now at $54 million on a $32 million budget. There aren't any foreign numbers on it yet and I wonder how well a film like this will play overseas. We'll find out next weekend when it hits the UK and expands worldwide throughout November.
Result: $1.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.556 million, which is $0.044m off for a 2.75% error.
Inception is now the only 2010 film to spend more than ten weeks in the top ten as this weekend's $1.2 million return makes it eleven in a row.
For those wondering The Virginity Hit was a bust and returned only $300,000 from 700 theaters, but Buried did well with $104,500 from 11 theaters making it a $9,500 per theater average. Waiting for "Superman", however, was the per theater weekend winner, opening in four theaters and taking in $141,000 for $35,250 per. Yowsa!
Result: $1.2 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
What do you all think out there? Do you think Inception will remain in the top ten or will the $1 million estimate from The Other Guys end up creeping in after actuals are reported? Does anyone want to take an early stab at next week's predictions with Let Me In, The Social Network and Case 39 hitting theaters?
Weigh in with your thoughts below.
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The real estimate for WS2 on Friday was $7million, not 8, so $19M weekend is hardly surprising. Definitely could've done more, though, especially considering its absolutely huge theater count.
Great for The Town and bad for Guardians. The seriousness and over-the-top epicness, it appears, killed it, which is a shame. Good for Easy A, I don't have too much interest in it, but I like Emma Stone and she deserves to get her movies successful, especially if they are apparently pretty good.
Also, I hope Buried ultimately breaks out in the same way Paranormal Activity did last year, because $9,500 per theater average isn't that good for a high-profile film in limited release. Word-of-mouth should be fantastic, though, so we'll see.
Reviews seem to be holding very high – that may translate over into good word of mouth as well.
55% on Rotten Tomatoes isn't high, it's average, and for a smart adult drama, it's plain mediocre.
Sorry – are we both talking about Buried?
That was the film I was replying to. I probably should have made that clearer, but as far as I can tell Buried is at 87%
Ouch, I'm very sorry. I was talking about Wall Street 2, don't ask me how that happened.
As far as Buried, yes. Reviews should help.
No worries – it happens! I should have said which film I was talking about.
Easy A was terrific. I'm glad to see that it is performing well.
Emma Stone for a Golden Globe nod? How many good lead actress in in comedy/musical have we had this year, so far?
I would love to see her AND the film get Golden Globe nods. Her and the film's only KNOWN competition comes from The Kids Are All Right.
Possibly Emily Blunt for Wild Target. In the UK Wild Target came out in June against Killers and MacGruber.
My predictions are always off. I almost never pay much attention to the tracking thought it's almost always closer to the mark than I am. Whatever.
I still think there are a lot of older folks who are gonna show up for Wall Street 2, so it may sprout legs.
As for Legend of the chickens, I guess someone at WB will be filing for unemployment by the end of the week.
Oh…I had a much better one about Legend of the…but it involved the word Turkey, which I thought would be incredibly hackish of me.
Wall Street 2 could sprout legs if it wasn't for Social Network and Let Me In getting released next weekend. They skew adult too. And weekend after that, you get Buried and Life as We Know It. I doubt WS2 will have a long and leggy run.
It's not just the competition. The town, for example, should continue to do well. I don't think the word of mouth for WS2 will be very good. Someone I know who saw it said it was only O.K. Not much of a recommendation.
To be fair though, having seen The Town, that's what I would say about that film as well.
I might not even be that charitable. I'm in the minority though, I appreciate that.
I think Laremy's prediction on the chicken legends was high because the film was so expensive to make. The budget of a movie can be seen as a sign of confidence by a studio, and many times their confidence is justified. In other words, a ceiling for a films budget is often based on a studios prediction of what the film could bring in. Laremy's prediction had the studio recovering it's costs. Which it won't.
Coulndn't be happier for a quality movie like The Town.
Haven't seen EASY A but Emma Stone does seem to have a likeability factor to her, but Sandra Bullock isn't going anywhere and I don't think Emma Stone could dethrown her. So not sure if she's the 'new' Sandra Bullock but one in the making ? Maybe.
I saw Wall Street and Easy A this weekend. I thought Wall Street was a great case of style over substance; it was trying to do too much with the story which ended up being a little all over the place, and the last half hour felt really tacked on. But damn if it wasn't fun to watch. Very well written and acted, despite the shortcomings in the story. Michael Douglas just oozed cool, and Shia finally has a true adult role. This could be a good stepping stone for him if he wasn't gonna be in another Transformers movie next year. It probably still will be; he's pretty popular and I think other filmmakers realize he's pretty talented and is just contractually stuck in Michael Bay's shitfest franchise.
Also, I absolutely loved Easy A. I heard a while ago that it was supposedly written as a hard R and then written down to PG-13, but honestly I don't know that being R would have made it better or funnier. I thought it was pitch perfect the way it was.
My only surprises with the numbers are Guardians and You Again, though neither are shockers. I shouldn't have bought into the kid movie hype of Guardians because from what I hear its really quite dark. And You Again doing so poorly restores a tiny bit of my faith in humanity.
Next weekend Let Me In should cruise to the top, though The Social Network is a huge wild card. But I don't think it can compete with a heavily marketed horror film in October, at least head to head on opening weekend. With good word of mouth it could well move ahead of it in week two.
Edit: I just saw the estimated theatre counts on BOM. While these are sometimes quite inaccurate, the 2,000 count for Let Me In seems very low. It is an Overture release, not exactly a major studio, but as heavily advertised as it's been I would have expected somewhere closer to 3,000. If these counts hold I think the door is definitely opened for The Social Network, which is estimated to get 2,700.
I agree, Let Me In just doesn't have enough theaters. The Social Network should take the crown with ease.
@Nick: It would make ZERO sense for The Social Network NOT to be number 1. Facebook is a popular subject, and the film is getting raves, so if it isn't number one, something fishy would be going on.
Disappointing weekend for newcomers, I think a lot of people predicted Wall Street 2 to open bigger than it did. And it still has that big ol' $70 million budget that it has to earn back. As long as it makes a solid foreign dollar, though, it should be fine.
Guardians looked too dark for a picture that parents wanted to take their kids too, so I'm not surprised it didn't do well. But I assumed that because it was the only high-profile kids release out right now, it'd make a bit more dough. Ah well.
Next weekend the Social Network is surely gonna take it, maybe in the high-$20 million area. A lot of buzz surrounding it, and it's been advertised relentlessly, so I can see it breaking a per theater average of over 10,000.
Leave this lackluster weekend behind us and look forward to the next 72-hour ratrace. Social Network! I want to be conservative and call this one at 20 or 25 million, or even less to honest, for an openning weekend, but I just have this feeling like it will be much much bigger. I haven't been this excited for a fall movie in forever.
Good week for me, (Leaving out the owl movie of course.) as for next week I expect it be much better from artistic and business perspective with Social Network and Let Me In waiting to become surprise hits.
What happened to Laremy? Did he give up the Wrap-Up or did you prefer to take over?
He just wanted to stick to predictions and working on Sunday wasn't easy on his schedule.
Why does everyone hate Legend of the Guardians?