Box-Office Wrap-Up: Sep. 11 – Sep. 13, 2009
COMMENTS
Tyler Perry won... but it was a brutal weekend at the box office.
I will take the victory, but I was clearly way off. It was all sadness at the box office this weekend. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
This film couldn't match Madea Goes to Jail – you guys were right, I was way over. Interestingly enough the reason might have been the Madea factor. The character was in the movie, but not featured in the title, and that's the only theory I've got to why this film couldn't crack $25m.
Result: 24.0 million (My rank: #1, $9.8m off)
2. 9
Good for 9. It's not a film I was particularly interested in, but cheering for it over Sorority Row and Whiteout isn't a tough call. No budget has been reported yet, but the film has made $16m so far (worldwide cume).
Result: 10.8 million (My rank: #, $m off)
Crossed $100m domestically this weekend, and $200m worldwide is now a given. I don't think anyone thought it could deliver those kind of numbers — it's nice to see whatever Quentin tackles next will have to be taken seriously.
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #5, $1.0m off)
Only at $21.8m so far, this probably doesn't have any chance of making its budget back. They spent a gangload on trailers, you couldn't escape that thing for a few weeks. Remember? Sandra Bullock falling down a hole? Hilarious, right?
Result: 5.8 million (My rank: #7, $.4m off)
Wow. Final Destination beat Sorority Row in its third weekend. Just proves the new blueprint: forget quality, make it 3-D and make money.
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #6, $.1m off)
6. Sorority Row
Yikes. I hope Summit is learning some lessons in their opening years. I guess the lesson here is Audrina Patridge equals box office poison. But what does this mean for Jennifer's Body? Does the Megan Fox appeal trump the adult rating?
Result: 5.2 million (My rank: #2, $12.7m off)
7. Whiteout
Another crushing blow. The terrible reviews couldn't have helped, but more likely the terrible film was the thing that truly screwed them.
Result: 5.1 million (My rank: #3, $7.3m off)
8. District 9
Back on track! I'm going to wrap this up in short order as my beloved Miami Dolphins are about to kick off. And clearly NO ONE went to the theater this weekend, even on accident.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: #8, $0.8m off)
Could it still hit $100m domestically? It's at $85m right now. So I say no.
Result: 3.3 million (My rank: #10, $.4m off)
10. Gamer
I've met pepole who liked it. But it definitely didn't get any help from the marketing.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #9, $1.2m off)
Do you have any pet theories as to the debacle? Back to school? Rock Band Beatles? The lack of interesting programming? I guess we can all be grateful Oscar films are coming soon, eh?
Previous Post
Links from Other Sites You May Like
Showing 22 Comments
~ PLEASE NOTE ~
If, in any way, your comment is an attack on the author of this post or a previous commenter, your comment will be deleted without question.
Add a New Comment |
DON'T WANT YOUR COMMENT DELETED?
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Want an avatar for your comments? Click here to sign up with Gravatar.
The slim opening for Sorority Row is unfortunate for Summit. Luckily, they have the twilight sequel coming out this November.
They also have Astro Boy, but I'm wondering if this is going to be a bankable franchise. I imagine it'll be met with the same level of interest as last year's Speed Racer adaptation.
Well, i think the kids are back at school, so many of them dont go to cinema. Next week will be a better weekend.
Cloudy of a Chance of Meatballs will win with $26M!
Well I hate to say I told you so, but seriously people were really overestimating SR. I already said that there wasn't enough buzz on that movie to carry it past 10mill, so the 16mill prediction was pretty ridicoulous. But still it did alot worse than I thought and I only predicted it at 10mill and it didn't even comes close to that. What's even worse is that this movie had a ton of advertising and played in almost 3000 theates, but couldn't come close to beating 9 which didn't even play in 2000 theatres. Things don't look good for it next week when JB comes out either.
I think Megan Fox and Amanda Seyfried can carry Jennifer's Body to number 1. they need to start getting some advertisement going soon though!
all i have to say is this ……. GO DOLPHINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here's a rule of thumb for Tyler Perry movies
1) His movies are good for a $20 million opening, give or take a few million either way. The only exception is "Daddy's Little Girls."
2) If the word "Madea" is in the title, add $10 million.
3) If the words "goes to jail" appear after "Madea," add another $10 million.
Cloudy will take 1 because of disney, Jennifer's body will be a hit or miss
I'm saying
Cloudy – 33M
Jennifer – 18M
or
Cloudy – 27M
Jennifer – 12M
Actually, I don't take Quentin Tarantino or his work seriously, but I do take Brad Pitt seriously. He doesn't have the same level of trust with his audience as Will Smith does, but he's way up there.
The Informant! and Jennifer's Body come out next week. What do they have in common? They're both possible Oscar contenders. What do they have in common? Both are rated-R. What do they have in common? Both have a chance of surprisingly underperforming at the box office.
I think they are happy "Steve" is making money at all, it was probably like a bad bank loan already wrote-off on the balance sheet last year.
Let's give "9" and A for effort, how do you sell that kind of movie? Very original. And why have I not heard a single mention in ads about "from the writer of "Juno" in Jennifer's Bondy yet? I would think that would be a selling point for the non horror fans to see this movie. Heck they sure throw out Amanda Seyfried name in every ad, a she is not a named star (yet), even after Momma Mia.
Oscar contenders? Really? Golden Globes in comedy for Informant maybe.
I don't know when the studios will wake up and just use the month of Sept to release older classic titles back into theaters like when Star Wars was re-released back in 1997. Would you rather see Whiteout and Sorority Row or remastered versions of Superman, Jaws, Planet of the Apes, Back to the Future and whole bunch of other great movies that fans would be excited to see on the big screen again. Im sure Jaws would do better than a $5 mil opening of Whiteout and there no risk to the studio financially. This idea would work. Re-release each film for one week only nationwide. Im all for it as it would give the dead month of Sept some interest.
chuck
With the Tyler Perry movies, I feel that the way the movie is portrayed in the trailers is directly related to the opening. As JM said, Madea in the title equals bank.
For example, the trailer for "I Can Do Bad" had Madea in short spurts with the emphasis on the romance/melodrama for Henson's character. With "Madea Goes to Jail", we got trailers bookended by Madea's crazy antics, so people thought that it would be more of a straight-comedy than a dramedy. Hence smaller opening for this film, bigger opening for the more "straight-laced" one.
Also, "Jennifer's Body" will bomb. Horror comedies never do well. NEVER. Please, name me a horror comedy that has succeed in the past few years. No "cult hits" (a la "Shaun of the Dead") or comedies with horror elements ("Scary Movie" or "Ghostbusters").
Megan Fox will not sell a movie on her own, I guarantee that.
@m1: "Jennifer's Body" is an Oscar contender? Really? What do you read?
@Steve: I'll just bet you're glad "Steve" is making money. (Rim shot.)
I've been reading about Diablo Cody being the writer for "Jennifer's Body" only about everywhere.
Vince, are we just talking box office, or if Jennifer's Body becomes a cult hit, is that still your definition of fail? After all, Shaun of the Dead didn't perform great at the box office but huge on DVD. I don't think Jennifer's Body will do that well, it seems what's her name has been doing a ton of negative publicity, people are starting to get turned off by Fox, so, I wonder if it fails next week, if it could be blamed on that. Also, did I read somewhere Oscar possibility for this film? I'm going to have to check to make sure I'm still in Normal Land.
I was surprised at the lack of people getting out to the movies. Lots of great sports this weekend, sure, but no one came out to the movies except Tyler Perry fans. They only seem to go to the movies twice a year. 9 did okay, but I think it will be like Nightmare Before Christmas. Okay box office followed by cult status on DVD. Maybe in ten years, it will be re-released in 3-D or whatever the new technology of the day will be.
I have a friend who sees two or three or four movies a week. I can't imagine him NOT seeing Megan's film (He was happy with Transformers). There aren't that many multiple times per week movie goers, but let's see what they can add to a films gross.
I've been searching online to figure out the answer to this question with no luck. Can any of you guys account for the fact that Ice Age: DOTD has suddenly seen its international box office shoot up from 613M to 670 million in the last three weeks despite the fact that its numbers were steadily declining up to three weeks ago?
@Alex: I think Ice Age 3 had a late release date in Italy, based on an article from variety. The movie has been doing very well in that market, which may explain the sudden uptick in revenue.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118008510.html?query=ice+age
Something to consider when making up next week's numbers: Jennifer's Body was significantly more of a gory horror movie than I expected, and more than is portrayed in the trailer. Everyone came out saying that there were 1 or 2 genuinely frightening scenes. But the movie also happened to be plastered over with Diablo Cody's incredible wit and her now-stale teen-speak.
@The Check Spot:
No, I am not counting success as whether the film is of good quality or not, or whether it'll succeed as a cult midnight movie years from now after its DVD sales take off. I'm saying strictly box office performance wise, it'll bomb.
@Vince: Then, I agree. It'll bomb this week.
@dw: thx 4 clearing that up 4 me!