Box-Office Wrap-Up: 'Rio' Repeats, 'Madea' in Second and 'Hop' Tops $100 Million
Finally a weekend where a little bit happened
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| Looks like John-PT had it right in the comments on my Friday update as Rio was front-loaded big time on Good Friday. I guessed it could hit $36 million after its $10.8 million on Friday. John said it would likely be $27 million. He was right and I was wrong. Still, Rio dipped only 31% from last weekend and now sits at $81.3 million domestically as it has also been racking up big numbers in the foreign markets ($286 million total worldwide). It will easily become the fourth film to hit $100 million this year and will likely pass Rango for the top spot of 2011 shortly. However, that may be a short lived position as Fast Five opens next weekend and the summer of 2011 isn't too far off. Result: $26.8 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $25.59 million was $1.21m off for a percentage error of 4.51%. | |
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Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $34.32 million, which is $8.62m off for a 33.54% error.
Laremy was pretty close with his $18.3 million prediction but John Debono was closer as he almost nailed it on the head with a $17.7 million prediction.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $18.31 million, which is $0.81m off for a 4.63% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.43 million, which is $5.97m off for a 48.15% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $8.78 million, which is $1.68m off for a 23.66% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6 million, which is $0.4m off for a 6.25% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.23 million, which is $0.37m off for a 6.61% error.
I'll remind you once again it was made for a reported $1.5 million and has now topped $44 million domestically.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.88 million, which is $0.42m off for a 7.92% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4.36 million, which is $0.84m off for a 16.15% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $3.64 million, which is $1.36m off for a 27.2% error.
In other news, Morgan Spurlock's POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold managed a meager $135,139 from 18 theaters and Sony Pictures Classics's Oscar nominated Incendies took in an estimated $54,582 from three theaters in New York and Los Angeles for $18,194 and the weekend's top per theater count. Also, Variance's Legend of the Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen, which I will be reviewing in the next couple of days, opened in four theaters and took in an estimated $11,500.
If you were wondering about Atlas Shrugged: Part 1, it added 166 theaters and fell almost 48% taking in only $878,709
As for next weekend I'm pretty sure everyone will be taking Fast Five for the win. The film opened in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Korea this weekend and ended up with $24 million from 957 theaters. It was the largest opening for any film in the Fast and Furious franchise in all of those markets. Fast and Furious made $70.9 million in its opening weekend debut in 2009… You guessing Fast Five will go higher this year?
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I think Scream franchise is pretty much dead in the water. The opening was massvely disappointing and the second weekend drop is as bad as it could have been. It's obvious whatever fanbase there was has moved on en masse, and no new fans were gained.
Surprised that a Madea film couldn't even hit $30 million, happy for Insidious, Hanna and Source Code and glad to see my $26.6 million prediction for Rio was almost spot-on. Now, bring on Diesel and the gang, time for things to really kick off already.
I think any chances for a Scream 5 (and I'm not sure where the story could go actually after the fourth) would depend on how it fares globally.
I don't see it going far past $40 million in the US (I'm not even convinced it will get to that either) so unless it does well abroad (where, funnily enough all the previous Scream movies stayed even at around $70 million apiece from '96 through '00) I'm not convinced a fifth will be around any time soon either.
I'm calling $85 million for Fast Five next weekend, I'm thinking 3,800 theaters, $22,500 per theater.
It happens every year. After the Good Friday, films tend to decrease on Saturday and die on Sunday. That is why Rio didn't fly higher.
Very disapoiting for Madea.
This predictiong is very likely to change until Thursday:
Fast Five – 92.5M OW
Yeah, Fast Five is definitely not hitting that number. That being said, Hoodwinked 2 and Dylan Dog are probably bombing, and Prom will likely do mid-teens.
"Dog" is only getting 1,000 theaters. The first "Hoodwinked" was solid, so there's hope, and have no idea on "Prom" but it had to been made cheap.
Oh and I missed the last two Fast and Furious movies, so how am I suppose to follow the new one? The plot will be so hard to follow.
In all honesty, Fast and Furious movies are not the ones in which you care about the plot.
@ Steve, I haven't ever seen the second or third films in the FF franchise either (although I was told about the fact that actually the fourth and fifth films take place BEFORE the third film) and I haven't seen the first film since 2001 and I still was fine when Fast & Furious rolled around because you don't really need to have seen them all to watch them. They're not that intricate.
Anyway, Fast Five picks up right at the end of Fast & Furious's ending and it wouldn't be a pre-requisite to grasping the 'plot' of Fast Five.
Luckily overseas will save Dylan dog. Italy already gave it over 3 million. Hoodwinked did well so this should be able to eek out in the upper teens as well. Still for Universal, yet again, Why did Fast five cost about 170 million to make, plus advertisements? It will make money…but how much universal?
just seen fast five n throughly enjoyed it n look fwd to episode 6 they r exactly what they say on the paacket light fluffy all action gorgeous girls brill stunts
Also: why do people keep seeing those Fast and Furious movies? Anyone know?
Because they are a hell of a lot of fun… but that's just my reason for liking them.
Your and everyone's reason to like them.
Exactly.
They have an audience that responds to them, knows what they are getting and turns up to take the ride for a couple hours.
But that's the same reason ANY franchise finds success. They find an audience that supports them.
Did you see it Brad? I live in Australia and i saw it over the weekend. I loved it, and I cant wait to find out what you thought about it…
Nope, I'm seeing it on Tuesday and can't wait. I've managed to avoid all trailers.
ah! lucky son of a gun, i swear to god i've seen that trailer in front of every single movie i've gone to over the past few months. It does look good though, I think I'm going to see it, though it will be my first fast and furious movie ever.
you should definitely see it Bustray. you won't need prior knowledge coming into this one, but people who have seen 1,2 and 3 will find moments that'll make them smile. the audience i watched it with was clapping at the end
Because the Fast & Furious franchise is something of a guilty pleasure to many people. I wonder if you have a guilty pleasure M1.
I do. It's called Twilight.
I love all of the Fast & Furious movies, they're a ton of fun IMO.
Also, apparently there's a huge Latin & African-American demographic that goes to see these movies consistently, which might explain why these films always overachieve.
I don't see why Fast Five shouldn't be able to match or increase on the opening of Fast & Furious because it delivers what it's audience will desire and has the whole gang from the last film back plus some others from previous installments as well.
I'd guess anything between $75 mill and $90 mill could be possible for it to achieve.
I guess so far I'm the only one who thinks Fast Five might have a hard time even matching its predecessor's opening. I have it exactly at $70 million.
I totally forgot about the Easter Sunday plunge in my comments yesterday. Surprised at the relatively low numbers for Madea; I wonder if it got burned by the holiday or if even that fanbase is starting to lose interest.
I'll have to see how things are tracking, but I'm not convinced that Fast Five will top Fast and Furious next weekend. I feel like Fast and Furious was the "reboot" of sorts, bringing the cast all back together, and this is just a continuation of that newish storyline, albeit with a few other characters from the other films. Also, despite having a couple up weekends in a row, 2011 just feels like a down year, and I think that will continue well into the summer, as studios seems to be scraping the bottom of the barrel on a lot of these franchises. Maybe I'll be wrong, but that's the vibe I'm getting. I'll say $65 million for Fast Five right now. All next week's other newbies will barely register and Rio will probably be second.
You and me both, but next Easter we'll be on top of it eh?
Haha yeah I'll have to remember that next year. Fortunately I didn't get my predictions in on Friday night, so I only overestimated four films instead of the ten I probably would have.
More likely the Tyler Perry fanbase were in church throughout the weekend.
Maybe releasing a film on Good Friday was a bad move for Tyler Perry.
Tyler Perry always releases his spring films on Easter weekend. Many of his fans are church-goers who make a date of it, so the holiday helps. And there is less competition on Easter because it's generally a down weekend oveall for the box office, though only kid's films really take a bad beating on Sunday.
I'm so sick and tried of this madea films. I think there the same damn film over and over.I think Tyler perry is a hack and i'm glad that it did't hit number one at the box office.
One thing's quite possible: Fast Five could top the April record set by the previous Fast & Furious film.
The question now is this:
Can Vin Diesel and Paul Walker get that Spring Release Record back from Mia Wasikowska?
Alice in Wonderland broke Fast & Furious' Spring Record last year, can Fast Five break Alice's record?
I'm really hoping Fast & Furious gives the box office the kick start it needs. This summer could be huge, with many event pictures coming out (the only two I'm not too sure about is X-Men and Green Lantern).
As for Scream 5, I hope it doesn't happen. I love the Scream franchise and thought the new one was enjoyable, but the story can't really go anywhere. As for why it's flopping, I don't think people are crazy about horror comedies anymore. I've heard many people complaining about how funny Scream 4 was. Personally, I don't see why that's a negative aspect of the film, but oh well.
I actually think there might be TOO many event films this summer. I can't recall a summer where things were packed in so densely. There's at least one major, big-budget tentpole every weekend from this coming until the first weekend of August, save two (May 13 and July 8). It seems like some of those films will have to underperform just due to attrition. Of course there's also the issue of proper expectations…Thor, Green Lantern, and Captain America are all the first of their franchise and movies like Super 8 and Cowboys and Aliens are also very wildcardish. So it's hard to know what they'll do. Then you have films like Pirates, The Hangover, and Transformers which probably should have lower expectations since they'll all likely gross far less than some of their predecessors. With those I think they'll be debate as to whether they underperformed or just had too high of expectations.
I recall last year Laremy did an article basically predicting the OW's of every summer tentpole. Would be cool to see that again this year, even though it truly amounts to a guessing game at this point.
You raise a good point. If a film doesn't impress audiences it's opening weekend, it is going to fall quickly. Hopefully most films will keep audiences interested.
According to Deadline Fast Five has already taken $24 million from it's openings in just a handful of foreign markets (but including the UK and Australia) and posted franchise record bests for FF in them so far.
I wonder if that could bode interestingly for it's US launch or whether it's just a case of foreign markets being more receptive to the film?
Oops, my bad – that's already been covered…………..
Too bad WFE wasn't any good? That movie was beautifully done.
Its the year of Animation Domination! So far, Rio, Rango & Hop have been the only films to really approach any kind of blockbuster status, without actually being blockbuster films. However, these animated kid-flicks have been the only thing to save the U.S. Box Office from absolute ruin.
Hopefully, over the next two weeks, with the release of FAST FIVE & THOR, the 2011 box office will emerge from its slump. Otherwise, it'll be a long, hot, summer
Thems the facts
Technically Hop is a live action film.
If I was crazy, I might go bullish on Fast Five and predict an opening of $120 million+ but since Fast Five might not have the "family appeal" to hit those heights I'd better go with $80 million.
Fast Five will hit 80 million on it's opening weekend. How would I like to see Hangover 2 on top of the charts but have a feeling that Kung Fu Panda will eclipse it. Damn
I bet Pirates 4 will thrash the Hangover boys as well.
This week was supposed to earn $130M…tskx3
Fast Five for $85M! Second weekend? $24M. Total of $160M