Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 9 – Oct. 11, 2009
An interesting weekend as Paranormal Activity and Couples Retreat come up big.
Alert commenters JP and JM called it, Paranormal Activity was destined to make the top ten. But even they didn't see it cracking the top five with an astounding $7.1m in 159 theaters. That per theater average of $44k puts them only a thousand dollars per theater behind the monstrous Miley opening last year. It even beat Surrogates overall, even though it spotted them 2800 theaters. An amazing result, and it wasn't even the only one…
#1 movie predicted correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
A throwback result for Universal, it pays to be the only game in town. I don't believe people will see "anything" because it's the weekend, but I do believe that having a solid marketing budget and known stars will help you for at least 72 hours.
Result: 35.3 million (My rank: #1, $11.3m off)
This October is around five percent ahead of last October, but there isn't a title to compete with High School Musical 3 near the tail end of the month. This Is It doesn't drop until October 30, so it won't have enough time to make an impact.
Result: 15.0 million (My rank: #2, $2.1m off)
I know I've commented on this before, but I don't get where the money was spent. Voiceover talent? Computers are getting cheaper and cheaper, why does it cost Sony $100m to make this film? Is it just studio overhead, assistants and leased company cars?
Result: 12.0 million (My rank: #3, $0.9m off)
I'm very quietly four for four. But all that ends starting with the next title.
Result: 7.7 million (My rank: #4, $0.1m off)
They used an almost forgotten Hollywood method: enforcing scarcity. People complained "Why aren't they releasing it wide?" But Paramount made you want the product, got you passionate about it, and all without dropping huge amounts on marketing. Well played on their part, it's the kind of thing you can do when you don't need to rip off as many people as possible in as short a time as possible.
Result: 7.1 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
"Where's the money Lebowski??" — remember that scene with Jeff Bridges? That's what I imagine folks are asking Jonathan Mostow this morning. Still, it could do well internationally.
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #5, $.2m off)
Only one film fell more than 50 percent this weekend, you're looking at it. Word of mouth couldn't have been kind. That's the one thing marketers haven't figured out how to control yet, though Lord knows they've tried.
Result: 3.4 million (My rank: #6, $.3m off)
Drew Barrymore hosted SNL last night. That just seems mean since the film has been out for ten days already.
Result: 2.8 million (My rank: #7, $.3m off)
I'd hoped a conversation would start around this title, regardless of the source. But clearly it's not gonna happen as three wide releases hit next weekend, flushing the bottom feeders right out.
Result: 2.7 million (My rank: #8, $.2m off)
$10m, $5m, $2.6m, and then on to DVD. That's how they do it these days. I don't think it's sustainable, but then again I'm just a fella with a spreadsheet.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)
Did we learn any lessons this weekend? One of the theories presented in the comments (Do Critics Matter?) I've done extensive research on and I'm pleased to tell you the answer is "usually and probably." It didn't happen this weekend, but "good" films tend to be "good" films for everyone. Now then, do they do well financially because critics say they are good, or because they are actually just good? That's a hard web to untangle, and not one I feel comfortable passing judgment on. But the one out of every ten occasions where a film gets terrible reviews and still banks is a "black swan" — IE an event you remember but not the norm. Of course then CNN runs their quarterly "people don't listen to critics!" piece and we're off and running on what's actually a rather complicated debate.
But I digress. Weigh in with comments… before it's too late!
Paranormal Activity is one of the best horror movies in years, and people want to see it. How many theaters Paranormal Activity will have next weekend? I think that Paranormal Activity have a chance to win next weekend! I think Where Wild Things Are will not crack $25M, and the Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen will do $10M each other. Couples Retreat won very very big, next weekend will do $20M and could win too.
i think where the wild things are will open big at least $30 million or more
I think Where the Wild Things Are will be #1. Law Abiding Citizen will make little, The Stepfather will make 13 million (if not screened for critics; then add 3 million more), and CWACOM will hit 100 million. Also Paranormal Activity will be #3. The Informant is not revisiting this list, and Whip It will be #9, Surrogates or Invention of Lying will be #10.
next weekend is gonna be BIG.
1. Where the Wild Things Are – $49 Million (just enough to get the October opening record)
2. Paranormal Activity – $27 Million
3. Couples Retreat – $15 Million
4. Law Abiding Citizen – $10 Million (this beats out Stepfather just by a bit based on starpower, not that either are gonna do great)
5. The Stepfather – $8 Million
6. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs – $7 Million
7. Zombieland – $6 Million
and then… whatever.
I also think PARANORMAL ACTIVITY will be big next weekend, but WTWTA should definitely crack $25 million. It's ridiculously anticipated. THE STEPFATHER will also do well (It has that DISTURBIA vibe, and this month is horror movie month, so both this and PA should hold up quite well over the next 3 three weeks) but LAW ABIDING CITIZEN will be the one lost in the shuffle. Occasional, yet weak marketing on that one – and it seems audiences aren't exactly going for the seen-it-five-million-times-before vibe these days.
In fact, I'm even gonna say that we could have about three-four movies crossing the 20 mill mark next weekend.
EARLY PREDICTIONS
1. WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE – $26.1 million
2. PARANORMAL ACTIVITY – $24.2 million
3. THE STEPFATHER – $22.7 million
4. COUPLES RETREAT – $19.4 million
5. ZOMBIELAND – $10.5 million
6. LAW ABIDING CITIZEN – $9.8 million
:]
I'm hoping that Wild Things does between 40 and 50 million if not more. It looks like such a great movie and I think that reviews will be through the roof for it. Couples Retreat will likley do 20 million or so, Vaughn's film tend to hold over pretty well. Paranormal Activity will do about 15 mill. Stepfather will end up with 10 to 12 million, while Law abiding will do 7 or 8 mill.
Hey guys, we have to remember that THE STEPFATHER is the only PG-13 rated horror/thriller out there, and those tend to do quite well, whether they're crappy or not. Sony knows how to market those very well. Plus, a lot of underage teens will be hearing massive word of mouth on PARANORMAL ACTIVITY and so they can buy a ticket for STEPFATHER and just go into that one.
Paranormal Activity is being released in over 1,000 theatres next week so it should do well over 20mill just like Blair Witch. I really want to see it and I'll try to next weekend probably before or after seeing WTWTA, but I really hope the hype does kill it for me.
Couples Retreat should fall harshly next week when actual competition with actual quality is shown. I'd say WtWTA for about 33 million.
I want to see "Where the Wild Things Are" very badly. A lot of us do. HOWEVER, I'm not entirely sure kids want to see it, and if they aren't bugging their parents about it, the older folks may wait until DVD. Anyone who is at all familiar with arthouse cinema is creaming their parents at the idea of Spike Jonze directing, with a script done by him and David Eggers. And many who loved the book as a kid want to see it. But where will that leave the movie? Ardent fans can only bring a movie so far, and the only book that could translate into blockbuster material on fans alone is Harry Potter (and even that probably has lots of people watching it that have never read the book). All other book-to-movie hits have garnered significant amounts of newcomers on their way to success. So…
Where the Wild Things Are–$25 million. I'm not willing to bet more than that. I hope it's more than that. I hope it's much, much more than that. I wouldn't even be too surprised if it's twice that much. But nor will I be surprised if it's half that much.
Law Abiding Citizen–$15 million. No critic's reviews in yet, but advance audience reaction is that it's pretty good. If WTWTA disappoints, this may break through and hit $20 million.
Stepfather–$5 million. Sorry, it's bombing. Now that "Paranormal Activity" has stolen its thunder, it's doing no better than "Sorority Row" or "Whiteout" or "Pandorum." Horror fans are sated right now. They've come off of Final Destination and Halloween II, they're seeing "Paranormal Activity" right now, and on the 23rd they'll go see "Saw VI." Stepfather's out of the fuckin' game.
Couples Retreat–$17.5 million. This genre of film–the romantic comedy–only falls harshly if it opens to less than $5 million. Otherwise, not even the worst reviews can bring it down much more than 50%. See the numbers for "All About Steve."
Paranormal Activity–$15 million. This is hard to call. It's going wide, but does that mean 1000 theaters or 2000 theaters or what? I can't see much more than 2000 theaters, really. It would cost less for Paramount to keep this movie selling out in fewer theaters than being 3/4 full in more theaters… and it would keep the excitement building.
Where the Wild Things Are: 39.7
Paranormal Activity: 27.8
Thanks, @Chuck Bartowski: for making me laugh. I guess kid's won't be sneaking in to see "Law Abiding Citizen!"
The good news:
My call on Zombieland was $15 million – exactly right!
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $12 million – exactly right!
Toy Story 3D $9 million – $1.3 million too optimistic for Disney
Surrogates -$4 million – off by only .1 million!
This was my first try at predicting actual numbers!
Now the humble pie:
I just didn't believe in Couples Retreat $14 million – off $21.3 million!
I think I'll regroup and rethink before trying actual numbers again.
Laremy, on the subject of critics influence – Speaking of Miley, even though reviews for Hannah Montana: The Movie trended up to eventully 44% on rotten tomatoes, I felt critics were effectively able to label this made for all audiences movie as only for kids, Hurting it's overall box office performance. So, there's some influence.
I also have a question about web etiquette. I like to post comments as Mileyfan, but only when I am saying something entirely positive, otherwise I prefer Disneywatcher. If I'm going to make comments I don't want associated with Disney, I'll use some other moniker. Does anyone think this is wrong? Should I only use one generic posting name? Or is it a harmless affectation?
@Disneywatcher: Re: Mileyfan vs. Disneywatcher I'd say you're safe either way. I don't see a lot of judgment of screenames going on around here. :)
Re: The critics vs. box office question I think you can pull specific examples out that defy my overall point. But I stand by my point, because I've seen the math that backs it up. In general higher rated RT films make more money than lower rated RT films. It might have nothing to do with critics, but it is a factual thing.
We have a lot of wild cards at the box office next weekend, so I'm going to be really surprised if I'm even close on a lot of these. Huge amount of anticipation for Where The Wild Things Are next weekend, so I think it might reach close to $50 million. That'd put it at about a $13,000-$14,000 location average if Box Office Mojo's theater estimate of 3,500 is true. I feel like it could certainly pull that off, given that Toy Story & Toy Story 2 is going out of theaters next weekend and Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs will be in its fifth week. Additionally, it also has adult appeal, which never hurts at the box office.
Paranormal Activity's numbers are really going to depend on how many theaters it will play at- but if it plays at under 1,500, I'm predicting a theater-average of over 20,000. I'm predicting that Paramount will put it at around 1,000 theaters this weekend, and then expand it even more the next weekend due to phenomenal results.
Couple's Retreat will face a bit of trouble with real competition next weekend, but seeing as its the only PG-13 comedy out there right now, I don't see it dropping over 50%. Does anyone see this passing the $100 million mark?
As for the two new releases, The Stepfather should do decently while Law Abiding Citizen should flounder, seeing as the competition is so strong. LOL@Chuck Bartowski:, yeah, The Stepfather will fare decently due to teens buying tickets. And it has been given a solid marketing. However, Law Abiding Citizen will have much of its audience stolen by Paranormal Activity, and its R-rating isn't going to help it either. Neither of the movies will make much of an impact at the box office. Early predictions:
1. Where the Wild Things Are- $48,000,000
2. Paranormal Activity- $28,000,000
3. Couple's Retreat- $19,000,000
4. The Stepfather- $12,000,000
5. Law Abiding Citizen- $9,000,000
This could shape up to be a ridiculously strong October, if Paranormal Activity and Where The Wild Things Are hold up well. You also have the strength of the movies that are doing phenomenal already (Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs, Zombieland, Couple's Retreat) and then you throw Saw VI and This Is It into the equation, and we might just have an October box office record. Does anyone else think that this is a possibility?
Last time I ignored a total weekend box office estimate; this time I'll try to encorporate one, even though it's radically changing some of my guesstimates.
1. Paranormal Activity $29 million
2. Where the Wild things are $21.3 million
3. Couples Retreat $20 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen $12 million
5. Zombieland $7.5 million
6. The Stepfather $7 million
7. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs $6 million
8. Capitalism: A Love Story $1.5 million
9. The Invention of Lying $1.4 million
10.Surrogates $1.3 million
Key Assumptions:
Paranormal Activity, Couples Retreat, and Zombieland will be the choices for dating
Many guys going without dates will want to see Law Abiding Citizen
The Stepfather could pick up some business where Paranormal Activity isn't playing
No mad rush to the box office by those who do not frequently go to movies (up 10%)
No idea what to do with 'Where the Wild Things Are'