Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 8 – Oct. 10, 2010
COMMENTS
'Social Network' wins in lackluster weekend overall
What a boring weekend and it was clearly evident since Saturday as only 13 comments made up Laremy's Box-Office Oracle article after 37 the week before. You guys, like the rest of America just weren't interested. With the top twelve earning just over $81 million, this was the third worst weekend of the year at the box-office, which makes taking the #1 spot hardly something to brag about, but you better believe they will… Let's get to it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| Kudos to The Social Network for scoring a second weekend at the top of the box-office, but it's almost like a joke weekend considering a $15.5 million win isn't all that great. Fortunately for David Fincher's film it means only a 30% box-office and I suspect this one will have legs similar to The Town and Easy A in terms of strong holds, but none of them look to be likely to crack the $100 million mark. As far as predictions go, Laremy was off by less than $1 million, but had Social Network coming in third as the week's newcomers performed quite poorly. Some of you had Network finishing first, but all by a bit of an over estimation. Chuck Bartowski, like Laremy, had it coming in third, but had a slightly closer prediction of $14.9 million. However, you guys obviously weren't all that excited about this weekend, especially compared to last as there were not a lot of predictions on the board. Result: $15.5 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 and my prediction of $14.59 million was $0.91m off for a percentage error of 5.87%. | |
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In second was the film Laremy picked at #2, the rom-baby-com Life as We Know It of which Laremy overestimated as did most of you, though Ian pulled the closest prediction of $15.7 million. I don't necessarily like to root against a film since people put hard work into these things and jobs can sometimes be on the line, but sometimes I just wish people held their entertainment to higher standards.
Result: $14.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $17.51 million, which is $2.91m off for a 19.93% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $17.51 million, which is $2.91m off for a 19.93% error.
3. Secretariat
In third comes Secretariat, limping across the finish line $5.83 million under Laremy's prediction. John Debono was the closest on this one with a $12.9 million prediction as he nailed the order of the top three. Sort of a sad showing overall.
Result: $12.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $18.43 million, which is $5.83m off for a 46.27% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $18.43 million, which is $5.83m off for a 46.27% error.
Zack Snyder's Legend of the Guardians had another small drop-off, but the problem this film faces is that it didn't score enough on opening weekend for these mid-30s drops to be all that significant. As much as a 35% drop is nice, at $7 million for the weekend it doesn't exactly mean all that much when you're talking about a $100 million animated movie before prints and advertising. I guess Snyder's happy though, he's off to direct the next Superman movie and has Sucker Punch ready to hit theaters in about six months.
Result: $7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $7.22 million, which is $0.22m off for a 3.14% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $7.22 million, which is $0.22m off for a 3.14% error.
And finally we come to My Soul to Take, Wes Craven's 3D return to the big screen, which I thought would fare a little better, but it seems Craven will have to wait for Scream 4 to earn him any kind of significant box-office cash as this was a bit of a crash and burn. Sean R had a nice call on this one at $6.2 million, but Chuck Bartowski edged him out with a $7.3 million prediction. Then again if this were "The Price is Right" Bartowski's would have been an overbid so I'll let the two of you fight it out for who won.
Result: $6.9 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.14 million, which is $1.76m off for a 25.51% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.14 million, which is $1.76m off for a 25.51% error.
6. The Town
Moving into the second half, The Town had another nice hold with a 34% drop as Affleck's directing career remains very solid after his sophomore effort. It's nice to see Affleck doing well, I like his taste in material and hope he continues to succeed.
Result: $6.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $5.87 million, which is $0.43m off for a 6.83% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $5.87 million, which is $0.43m off for a 6.83% error.
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps is dropping like a rock with a 53% drop this weekend, which I believe is half-due to the mediocre response and half-due to the fact The Social Network is capturing most of the eyes that would have otherwise given this one a shot. Oh well.
Result: $4.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.41 million, which is $0.19m off for a 4.13% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.41 million, which is $0.19m off for a 4.13% error.
8. Easy A
Easy A, like The Town, continues to hang on with less than a 40% drop. Emma Stone has secured herself a role in the next Spider-Man movie as Gwen Stacey, not to mention a chance to show off her dramatic skills as Skeeter in The Help. I think we'll know soon enough if she is the next Sandra Bullock, and if you ask me I think she has the potential to surpass Bullock. We'll see.
Result: $4.2 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.39 million, which is $0.19m off for a 4.52% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.39 million, which is $0.19m off for a 4.52% error.
9. Case 39
Oh man, those Let Me In fans have got to be mad as their film has already dropped out of the top ten in only its second week, and even worse gets beat by Paramount's garbage time horror Case 39. Case 39 suffered a 50% drop while Let Me In dropped 53% and an eleventh place finish. Actuals may have Let Me In creeping into the tenth place spot, but at this point does it really matter?
Result: $2.6 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
10. You Again
In tenth, for the moment, is You Again with the largest drop of the weekend at 56%. Outside of that, I really have nothing more to say about this movie.
Result: $2.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.14 million, which is $0.74m off for a 30.83% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.14 million, which is $0.74m off for a 30.83% error.
Other new releases went as follows:
- It's Kind of a Funny Story – $2 million ($2,712 per theater)
- Stone – $73,000 ($12,167 per theater)
- Nowhere Boy – $56,100 ($14,025 per theater)
- Inside Job – $42,000 ($21,000 per theater)
- I Spit on Your Grave – $33,000 ($2,750 per theater)
- Tamara Drewe – $19,300 ($4,825 per theater)
Nothing to get too excited about there if you ask me as it all seems just about right considering buzz and content.
As for this dreadful box-office, will things pick up next week with Conviction, Jackass 3D and Red or is it going to take Paranormal Activity 2 and Saw 3D to finally kick the box-office into high gear? Perhaps not even that will help and October will be a total bust? Thoughts?
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Great for Social Network, should have no problem crossing $80 million and possibly even creeping up to 85-90. And if it sweeps the Oscars, that might give it just enough additional juice to crack the $100m mark and stop right there.
Can't bring myself to care for anything else.
Ooh, Stone did pretty well while Tamara Drewe disappointed. Easy A is deservedly doing well, and it's a shame Let Me In dropped out. Screw you, Case 39.
I still think SOCIAL NETWORK has a chance to get to 100 mil. Especially since it is a shoo in for best pic so more ppl will see it around oscar season too
Oscar noms are 3 months away, so Social Newtork will not still be in theaters unless it gets a "re-release" but it will more likely be on DVD about that time.
October is dead. The only movie that as a chance of opening over 30M is Jackass 3D. PA2 will bomb and Saw is dead.
The first weekend of November will be amazing, Due Date and Megamind!
What about Red? The action ensemble featuring Morgan Freeman, Bruce Willis and Hellen Mirren.
From what I've seen of the reviews(so far)and taking into consideration, buzz and what not. No one seems that over the moon about this one.
Yeah, it's not exactly mind blowing by any means. I saw it about a month ago or so.
I'm interested to find out what the budget will be for PA2.
IF – and it's a big IF – Paramount kept the budget conservative (and there's no reason we should find out it cost $25-$30 million to make, I'd guess this SHOULD have cost at most no more than The Last Excorcism) then it could make less than half of what the first did and still be success for the studio.
The studio will be happy with that.
PA2 cost less then 3M to Paramount.
RED will be a normal performer. Nothing to big. 16/50
In which case it will almost be impossible not to end up a financial success – even if it doesn't come close to the $107 million PA pulled last year.
It's hard to predict what it will open to, because of the slower release pattern of the last, but I don't see why it shouldn't be able to come in with around $20 million or so and then it's all gravy from then on in.
That's even if the Saw franchise can rescue itself from last year's tumble.
The Saw franchise is likely to recover for 2 reasons overseas
A. 3D
B. puny competition in the UK from 2 different double acts in the form of lesbians (Annete Benning & Julianne Moore) and grave robbers (Simon Pegg & Andy Serkis).
Of the 2 double acts Pegg & Serkis will triumph due to the home avantage of Pegg's fanbase.
3D is becoming the new horror trick to try and drive up revenue so it might well make up for the collapse of the last one.
That said, I'd probably rather watch The Kids Are All Right or Burke and Hare personally than a Saw flick any day of the week anyway.
Burke and Hare is something of a world exclusive. If the trailer is anything to go by, it should be very smart and witty. Plus, as far as British audiences are concerned, the ensemble of Burke and Hare is a lot bigger than Kids.
Here's the proof
Burke and Hare has Simon Pegg, Andy Serkis, Isla Fisher, Tom Wilkinson, Tim Curry, Stephen Merchant, Christopher Lee, Paul Whitehouse, Bill Bailey and even Ronnie Corbett.
The Kids only have Annette Benning and Julianne Moore, and they're not exactly well known in the UK compared to the Burke and Hare cast.
I'll be honest – I don't always give a fig precisely who is in a movie really.
I either want to see a film or I don't. None of the Burke and Hare cast are a personal draw for me, however I'd watch Moore read the telephone book if that's what she had handy!
In this case, though, I'd like to see both.
I can see why Americans might not get Burke and Hare because i doubt Americans know who the likes of Stephen Merchant, Bill Bailey or Ronnie Corbett are.
As far as Brits are aware Ronnie Corbett is a national treasure.
I'm so looking forward to next month in terms of movies. There's gonna be something to see just about every weekend.
I vote that Chuck Bartowski won the "Soul To Take" prediction accuracy. Then again, I might be just a TINY bit bias on the matter. Only a tiny bit though. I doubt Sean R. cares about such a boring weekend to come back and duke it out anyway.
Thanks for the shout outs, Brad. :)
Also, I think JACKASS 3D & RED are gonna save this month. Nice combo there. I might just have to pull a double-movie night.
:)
Just thinking what the age differnece will be between the two audiences for those movies.
Surprisingly, I'm hearing a lot of the older folk are interested in "RED", thanks to that lovely cast. My parents are over 50 and they can't wait to see it. Neither can I, or any of my friends.
I think RED reaches more demographics than JACKASS, and so it can make some quality cash, but I also think way more of the one demographic that JACKASS reaches will come out than all the different demographics for RED. JACKASS always makes solid bank, sooo… I think next weekend should be pretty solid. :)
One October release I'm looking forward to is the already forgotten-about Eastwood pic, "Hereafter." Don't expect much b.o. interest there. The other release this month I want to see is "The Girl Who Kicked The Hornet's Nest" a.k.a. Dragon Tattoo part 3. As a foreign film (and art house release) it won't make enough $$$ to even enter the top 10. Sigh. Perhaps things will improve in November.
Yeah, you nailed the exact reason I didn't mention either of those in the post. If this hadn't been a box-office article those would have probably been the first two I mentioned, although I already saw Hereafter and it's not very good.
Hereafter will not be very big anyway. November will be great.
I saw Hereafter last night and I actually liked it. But you're definitely right. By no means is it box office gold in any way.
Rough month but on the plus side,things should pick up soon. (Plus I have been doing quite well for myself lately with predictions so hooray for me.)
:Next Week:
Jackass 3D – $31.2M
Red – $16.3M
October has been a pretty boring month so far, but hopefully it starts picking up within the next couple of weeks. Also I agree that November is going to be CRAZY!
Have you seen Jackass 3D yet? Cannot wait for that next week!
Anybody guessing how much Potter 7 will open to?
Prob too early to really start calling…………but…………the only HP film to officially open north of $100 million so far was Goblet of Fire, which opened on almost the same day five years ago as HP7 will.
I would expect HP7 to also be able to crack $100 million as well, perhaps with inflation, anticpation etc you could even look at $125 million or more.
But that's very early opinion of mine.
The theater count hasn't been released yet. We can't guess.
Quite true, however, it's certainly not going to be a limited release film. So, it's perfectly reasonable to assume at this point a theatre count which is on the order of the previous films.
The theater count will be at least 4,000 screens. No theature will want to refuse any tentpole flick in favour of crap like Made in Dagenham.
fuck you case 39! poor let me in
I finally saw The Social Network and it was fantastic. It was better than I thought it would be actually. I think Jesse Eisenberg deserves a nom for Best Actor. I still think Inception was a better film, but it was still amazing.
People think that RED will only do decent. I actually saw a test screening of it back in august and I loved it. The only complaint/spoiler that I had was that Morgan Freemen's role was to little. I bet it'll make at least 26 million opening weekend and be a sleeper hit.
This "dumping ground" time of the year is not a bad time to release a decent film if you can score a decent opening. With light competition, your screen counts are sure to hold up. Which will help with your legs significantly. The end of October has two weekends back to back with only one release and they are both horror flicks. I suppose this light competition is why we have had these 400-800 screen count releases, like "It's Kind Of A Funny Story", "Chain Letter", and "The Virginity Hit".
Keeping in mind that multiplexes want something to offer to every demographic we have:
Easy A that has only lost 9 of it's theaters into it's fourth week which is virtually unheard of.
The Owl movie has zero competition for the next 29 days so it will keep it's theater counts, too.
Reds should have solid theater count holds also.
Etc., etc.