Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 29 – Oct. 31, 2010
COMMENTS
It's 'Saw 3D' at the top
Saw 3D has its revenge and doesn't let Paranormal Activity 2 take its box-office crown this year, but it still looks to make less than the supernatural thriller. The question now is whether this will truly be the end of the Saw franchise, or is this just the end of Jigsaw as the centerpiece of the franchise?
That silliness aside, let's take a look at this weekend's top ten…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
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| Well, Laremy's prediction of $19.65 million wasn't exactly too far off, but his prediction Saw 3D wouldn't be able to hold off Pararnormal Activity 2 in its second week was a miss. Saw 3D is now only about $3 million away from matching the domestic total of the prior installment and I just don't see how Lionsgate can say this is the last one, especially after hearing how this one ends. These movies cost the studio hardly anything to make and this year they didn't even do one of those Saw Blood Drives, so they're cutting corners whenever possible. What are the odds on Saw VIII actually happening? As for the commenters' predictions for Saw 3D, here's the top five:
Result: $24.2 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and my prediction of $19.65 million was $4.55m off for a percentage error of 18.8%. | |
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Paranormal Activity 2 suffered a 59% dip from last weekend's astonishing $40 million opening and has now grossed over $65 million in its first two weeks. Not bad, and just like Saw, I don't see how they can end this franchise. This movie only cost $3 million to make. If you can throw $3 million at a wall and enjoy 20-times that in return in your first ten days why wouldn't you make another?
Result: $16.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $24.4 million, which is $7.9m off for a 47.88% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $24.4 million, which is $7.9m off for a 47.88% error.
3. Red
Summit has to be pleased with Red's performance so far, though it still has a ways to go to end up in the black. With the additional $10.8 million this weekend it's now up to $58 million, which matches its budget, which means DVD and Blu-ray should certainly make it a profitable venture.
Result: $10.8 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.27 million, which is $0.47m off for a 4.35% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.27 million, which is $0.47m off for a 4.35% error.
4. Jackass 3D
Jackass 3D is now over $101 million in just three weeks. That is amazing! After ten weeks in theaters Jackass: Number Two made only $72 million domestically. I can't imagine anyone thought they could top that. As a franchise, the Jackass films have brought in $238,612,024 in domestic receipts. That's a number I can't even begin to understand.
Result: $8.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.65 million, which is $2.25m off for a 26.79% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.65 million, which is $2.25m off for a 26.79% error.
5. Hereafter
Clint Eastwood's Hereafter suffered a 47.4% dip even though it gained 243 theaters this weekend. Looks like Clint's latest isn't creating too much buzz.
Result: $6.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.5 million, which is $0.2m off for a 3.17% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.5 million, which is $0.2m off for a 3.17% error.
6. Secretariat
Secretariat continues to enjoy minuscule drops, this week only suffering a 27.6% drop over last weekend and is now up to $44.7 million. That paltry $12 million opening continues to haunt it, but considering it was made on a $35 million budget, Disney is probably breathing a little easier now.
Result: $5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.53 million, which is $0.53m off for a 10.6% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.53 million, which is $0.53m off for a 10.6% error.
The Social Network is beginning to slow to a crawl and is likely to come up short of that $100 million mark we've been debating since its opening weekend. This weekend it crossed $79 million while losing 154 theaters over last weekend. It's keeping itself in the mix, but holiday efforts are on the way and there just won't be enough screens. It's now a question of just how well this one will do on the awards circuit and the support is definitely there for it to make a run.
Result: $4.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.45 million, which is $0.75m off for a 15.96% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.45 million, which is $0.75m off for a 15.96% error.
I really have nothing more to say about Life As We Know It than what I've said in the past.
Result: $4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.73 million, which is $0.73m off for a 18.25% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.73 million, which is $0.73m off for a 18.25% error.
9. The Town
The Town enjoyed another less than 30% dip and is now over $87 million.
Result: $1.9 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.03 million, which is $0.13m off for a 6.84% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.03 million, which is $0.13m off for a 6.84% error.
10. Conviction
Conviction makes its first appearance in the top ten this weekend, edging out Legend of the Guardians by only $120,000 with a $3,230 per theater average from 565 theaters.
Result: $1.8 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Next weekend sees the release of Megamind, Due Date and For Colored Girls, which means we are getting ready for our next round of blockbusters. Tyler Perry's films always make a run for the #1 spot at the box-office, but with a blockbuster animated film coming out as well as Todd Phillips's first comedy since The Hangover, which one will win? Also, just how much will Saw 3D drop from this opening weekend?
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Yeah, Tyler Perry has no chance of winning next weekend. Not entirely sure what to think about next weekend between Megamind and Due Date though.
Just discovered that if Lionsgate didn't add in the Thursday night advance screenings, I would have only been $.1 million off. Oh those sneaky bastards.
Due Date is winning.
I think that – barring a sudden change – that next weekend should be a fight between Due Date and Megamind.
Due Date has the powerhouse of RDJ (even though personally I'm getting more than a little bored by him now already) and Phillips and should prove to be a solid hit. If those two can't push it nicely over $100 million domestic I'd be surprised even if it doesn't make final numbers like The Hangover.
But big animation is a perennial now that can never be ruled out. So Megamind has a legitimate shot as well at taking top spot.
Don't expect Due Date to perform like The Hangover because that film benefitted from a summer release.
As for Due Date's long term performance, that could depend on whether or not it gets Golden Globe nominations.
As I indicated with 'even if it doesn't make final numbers like The Hangover' – I don't.
Megamind is also an animated comedy, which is really good for box office. The proof that comedy is king is in the financial faliures of Beowulf and Legend of the Guardians: The Owels of Ga'Hoole.
Next weekend, I'm thinking something like about $50 million for Megamind, 40 for Due Date and 30 for Tyler. Almost everything else is sure to crash and burn.
Wow, Paranormal Activity got gutted. I don't have an agenda against it, I haven't seen either film, but I thought Halloween would hold it up some. I should have seen the writing on the wall after its incredibly frontloaded opening weekend; it performed just like a typical horror film. I guess the only question for it now it whether it can match the first film's gross. But because these are so cheap to make, I'm sure we'll see a Paranormal 3 next Halloween. But I feel like there's even less potential for originality here than with Saw, so even as cheap as these films are to make, eventually this too will run its course, and I doubt it will make it to seven entries. I do expect we'll see a Saw VIII, but maybe not next year. I could see them taking a year or two off, letting Paranormal Activity run its course, and then come back.
Next weekend does set up an interesting showdown, but I think Megamind takes it. It's an animation tentpole that's been heavily marketed and I'd expect something in the $55-65 million range. Due Date can maybe challenge it at the bottom of that range, but I don't see it going over $50 million. I haven't seen any reviews so I don't know what to expect long-term, but I'd guess an opening a bit bigger than The Hangover (having the trailer playing on every print of Inception this summer was a smart move) followed by a much faster dropoff. Saw and Paranormal will burn next weekend.
I'll say 70 million for Megamind and 50 million for Due Date. Can't rule out animation, Farrel or the 3D premium price. More curious to see how well 127 Hours will perform.
Due Date will win definitely. I think Megamind might be a bomb.
Don't underestimate the power of the Dreamworks brand!
I saw a free screening of Megamind in 3D yesterday, and after months of skepticsm, I have to say I was impressed. I just wish the studio hadn't spoiled most of the movie in the last trailer.
With that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing it again with a bigger group of friends, but I know for certain that next weekend is Due Date weekend for me.
Early predictions for November 5th – 7th:
1. Megamind 3D: $55.5 million
2. Due Date: $50.1 million
3. For Colored Girls: $25 million
Next Week:
1. Due Date
2. Megamind
3. Saw 3D
4. 127 Hours
5. PA2
127 Hours is only getting 4 theaters. It hitting the top ten is OOTQ, but it could end up with $100k as a PTA.
One thing's for certain Tron Legacy will inevitably flop.
I know some people will start saying that people have been buzzing about it for a while, but everybody said the same thing about The Golden Compass, which had a similar release date and family appeal.
Tron Legacy will finish as one of the top ten films of the year domestically. Not just the top ten so far, but when the year's totals are final. Many people want to be impressed at the movie theater and the graphics for Tron look impressive.
1. Megamind
2. Due Date
3. For Colored Girls
Pah-lease.
I'm not really on the Tron train at this moment in time, but I would be……………..surprised……….. if it wasn't able to cash in on the Holiday period and essentially haul in bucketfuls of cash.
We're not talking Avatar numbers with it I think, but I don't see (unless it does a Speed Racer, which I don't expect) much less than a couple hundred million domestic.
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't The Golden Compass supposed to cash in on the holiday period in 2007, before Alvin & the Chipmunks, I am Legend and National Treasure: Book of Secrets was unleashed?
Tron Legacy has stiff competition this year in the form of The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Gulivers Travels, True Grit and Yogi Bear. Three of those are alledgedly 3D films competing against Tron for the 3D screens.
How I think the Holiday films will pan out
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (franchise film + family audience = big hit)
2. Yogi Bear (this year's Alvin & the Chipmunks)
3. Tron Legacy (the wild card pick)
4. Guliver's Travels (alledgedly 3D)
5. True Grit (remake, but Jeff Bridges doesn't guarantee box office)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Narnia shifted to a new studio (Fox) because the second Narnia film didn't prove to be the cash cow that the first had been, causing Disney to cancel their involvement in financing the planned series of adaptions?
Or to put it another way: Prince Caspian was a franchise film + family film = not that big a hit?
So sure, there are always large scale films that don't pan out in any year and there are many reasons why that might be. Though, the Golden Compass underperformed mostly in the US. In the rest of the world on top of the $70 million US it made around another $300 million dollars for a $370 million total haul on a reported budget of $180 million.
(although don't confuse me with being a fan of 'The Golden Compass', I thought it was awful, but then I'm no fan of Narnia either so Dawn Treader can sink or swim since I won't be paying to see it anyway, I'm just pointing out it was it's US haul that dragged it down. Plus it wasn't a very good film).
Neither am I desperately rooting for Tron: Legacy to be THAT big either, but I really don't see this tanking too heavily unless reviews and word-of-mouth start to hit it very, very badly.
I haven't been tracking things closely lately, but I seem to remember that the 3D screen bottleneck was supposed to work itself out by the holidays with plenty to go around. Yogi Bear and Gulliver's Travels are not really competition for Tron since they are for younger audiences, and if I wanted to get snarky, I would say they won't be competition for anyone.
But Voyage of the Dawn Treader is quite a threat to Tron Legacy.
Mainly because many people who are alive today may not know about the first Tron. As a result Tron Legacy isn't an easy sell to anyone who wasn't born in the late 70s/early 80s.
The Chronicles of Narnia franchise started in 2005 so the fans of the first 2 movies will flock to the third. As a result Dawn Treader is an easier sell than Tron Legacy.
This November will be behind last November as far as box office performances go.
Even if Deathly Hallows part 1 out grosses New Moon, the 2010 November lineup seems to lack an equivilant to The Blind Side, unless Morning Glory overperforms.