Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 22 – Oct. 24, 2010
COMMENTS
Paranormal Activity 2 scares up $41 million
Impressive weekend I must say. Two impressive weekends for one studio in fact. Let's get down to business…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly: 2 Weeks In A Row
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| Paramount is one happy studio at the moment as they have secured the top spot at the box-office two weekends in a row and both times have managed to do it with more money than expected. Of course, Paranormal Activity 2's $41.5 million isn't a dramatic result compared to expectations, but I for one didn't expect it to take out the R-rated midnight premiere record and earn more than $40 million. However, many of the commenters on Laremy's Oracle article did with John-PT securing the most accurate prediction of $43.2 million. I would have given the crown to Asif, but you've got to get those predictions in before Friday folks. Sorry. Result: $41.5 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $37.7 million was $3.8m off for a percentage error of 9.16%. | |
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2. Jackass 3D
Not only did Paramount secure the #1 spot this week, but Jackass 3D takes the #2 spot (insert dirty joke here) as it has now made over $87 million in just over a week at the box-office. The 57% drop from opening weekend to this weekend's $21.6 million may seem bad on paper, but when you consider the $50 million it made last week, the $20 million budget and the fact Paramount released two films, two weekends in a row that cater to the same audience, the $128 million they made on them both is impressive to say the least.
Result: $21.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $23.16 million, which is $1.56m off for a 7.22% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $23.16 million, which is $1.56m off for a 7.22% error.
3. Red
Falling only 31% is Summit's Red, which has got to make the studio happy as the film pushes to make back the film's $58 million budget. I wonder how long its legs are…
Result: $15 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $13.57 million, which is $1.43m off for a 9.53% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $13.57 million, which is $1.43m off for a 9.53% error.
4. Hereafter
Clint Eastwood returns to theaters with Hereafter as his supernatural drama exploring the afterlife expands from six theaters to 2,181. The film managed to earn $12 million, which means John-PT once again had the closest prediction on the board with $11.8 million. I have no idea how this film will perform from week to week, but I don't think we're going to be talking about it for very long. Reviews haven't been great and with a $12 million wide release opening it doesn't bode well for a long stay in the top ten.
Result: $12 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $13.08 million, which is $1.08m off for a 9% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $13.08 million, which is $1.08m off for a 9% error.
Rounding out the top five is The Social Network, which has now crossed the $72 million mark, dropping a minuscule 29.2% in its fourth weekend in the theaters. The legs on this one prove long and I'm beginning to wonder how the Oscar race is going to shape out as the backlash against the film seems to have quieted down and with it remaining in the top ten the conversation can only seem to remain positive… for the time being.
Result: $7.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.82 million, which is $0.48m off for a 6.58% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6.82 million, which is $0.48m off for a 6.58% error.
6. Secretariat
The drops this weekend were impressive as Secretariat sees The Social Network's 29.2% drop and says, "Anything you can do I can do better…" Secretariat did not have an impressive opening weekend, but after dropping only 26.6% in its second weekend, this weekend it fell only 25.8%. Made for a reported $35 million, it has now topped $37 million at the domestic box-office. Its Oscar prospects may be pretty much shot, but it can still earn Disney a little money along the way.
Result: $6.9 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.5 million, which is $0.4m off for a 5.8% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.5 million, which is $0.4m off for a 5.8% error.
The film that won't leave Secretariat's side is the rom-com Life as We Know It and considering it is really the only film of its sort in wide release at the moment the fact it continues to make money isn't all that surprising. Fortunately for WB, it looks like things may remain that way as well as it isn't until November 10 when a film aimed at the same audience hits theaters with Morning Glory.
Result: $6.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.8 million, which is $1.3m off for a 21.31% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.8 million, which is $1.3m off for a 21.31% error.
Speaking of small drops, the smallest drop for any film screening in over 1,000 theaters this weekend was 24.9% for Zack Snyder's Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole. Like so many films in the past few months, this is another one that opened disappointingly small, but has managed to remain part of the conversation with very small week-to-week drops. Unfortunately, working on a reported budget of $80 million, the $50 million its made domestically is far from stellar, though foreign markets have already contributed an additional $41 million to ease WB's pain. The question now, wile Snyder works on the next Superman movie is will there be a sequel?
Result: $3.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $2.57 million, which is $0.53m off for a 17.1% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $2.57 million, which is $0.53m off for a 17.1% error.
9. The Town
Rounding out the bottom of the list are a pair of familiar films, both in their sixth week of release and both continuing to drop less than 35%. The Town is now over $84 million and WB is very happy considering the film's reported $37 million budget. I am just wondering what kind of Oscar chances this thing has. Considering the love from audiences it raises the film's profile, but is it big enough to earn a Best Picture nom?
Result: $2.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $1.93 million, which is $0.77m off for a 28.52% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $1.93 million, which is $0.77m off for a 28.52% error.
10. Easy A
In tenth is Easy A, which has a reported budget of $8 million and has now made over $54 million. With all the small drops this weekend and the large opening at the top it seems like this is one of the most positive box-office weekend's we've reported on in some time.
Result: $1.7 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
As far as anything extra to report goes there isn't all that much. Conviction continues to expand, this time adding 44 theaters and bringing in $300,000 and Woody Allen's You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger expanded as well and brought home $461,000. Other than that, I'm empty.
So speak your minds in the comments below. Next weekend is Saw 3D and the last film in the franchise was the worst performer of the lot, bringing in only $14.1 million for a franchise that is and was clearly faltering. Will the 3D factor raise this film to stellar levels or has the franchise alienated the general public to such a degree that only the diehards that turned out for the sixth film will continue to support it? If the latter is the case are we talking about a $16.6 million opening? Will Paranormal Activity 2 take the top spot again next weekend? Sound off below…
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One of the best weekends in a long time, the main opener coming in at the high end of expectations and the holdovers enjoying stellar drops. PA2 will probably make at least $90M, and considering the good WOM and reviews, the inevitable third film will likely open even better. Jackass should get to 120, The Social Network and The Town also aim at 90 (here's hoping Oscar expansion in January pushes Network right over 100), Easy A, Secretariat, Red etc. are nice hits. Really nothing to complain about here. And no, we couldn't have expected more from Hereafter anyway.
I think that whatever one thinks about the films involved themselves what's interesting is that there is a fair bit of success and variety in the Top Ten at present.
Clearly, The Town and Red are demonstrating that the older demographic WILL turn out and go and see films that appeal if you make them. PA2 shows that you can turn low budget into huge returns and Jackass 3D has it's audience as well.
Add in good holds for long lasting teen films (Easy A), animated fare (Guardians) and a couple of other films that are clearly finding some interest then it seems that a lot of different demographics are being catered for and the films are benefitting as a result.
As for Saw 3D – well, I checked out after the second film anyway – but I think the 3D addition should allow it to increase the debut of it's predecessor. By how much, I'm not sure. I don't hear anyone online talking excitedly about it and I would think if it can top $20 million it may be doing well.
Which means that depending on how it holds PA2 could conceivably retain the crown next weekend if it can fall less than 50%. Of course, next weekend IS Halloween weekend and that's the audience it's targeting so I have a feeling it could – then it will truly plummet the weekend after.
It will be interesting to see which film wins, but I would not rule out PA2 keeping Saw at bay a second year running.
Great weekend overall. I think it will soon be time for Social Network fans to crank up baby you're a rich man.
My question though is where will the third Jackass installment top out at. I'm thinking 190 million is probable at this point.
Well maybe not that probable, but still, Knoxville and crew deserve a little bit of kudos at this point.
190 worldwide, sure. Domestic? Hell no. This week it tumbled already, next weekend Saw will take its 3D screens and the week after that, Due Date arrives as a major competition.
From what I read, Due Date didn't exactly play well at showeast. So it could have a huge openning but it's chances after that might be minimal.
It'll do enough damage anyway.
My guess for next week is Paranormal Activity officially takes the Halloween movie crown from Saw and no way that Jackass 3-D has Inception or How To Train Your Dragon legs it would need for $190 million.
My Prediction
Next week Paranormal Activity 2 and Saw VII will be beaten by Burke and Hare (in the UK at least).
Not to mention that Dispicable Me, Legend of the Guardians, The Social Network, Africa United and Red have more of a chance than the 2 horror sequels.
I think the 3D will help Saw 7 to open better than 6. And last year the first Paranormal Activity hurt it a lot, since it was a new horror movie, word of mouth was great, etc…
This years is diferent, so maybe Saw 3D can open with something around 20 million and I doubt PA2 won't drop the typical 60% for horror movies. Specially considering this already is frontloaded (half of its weekend was done on Friday).
I'm completely amazed that PA2 opened so strongly. Despite the predictions on here, I was thinking this had a much better chance of ending up like Blair Witch 2.
With Halloween coming up next weekend, I'm guessing this one will continue to play well throughout the rest of the month.
I'm not rooting against Saw 7 though, as I'd hate to see Lionsgate lose one of its two most dependable sources of box office revenue (the other being Tyler Perry). Hopefully Saw 7 can cash in on the 3D gimmick and make around $30M next weekend. I'm guessing that PA2 could probably do $20M next frame. With Halloween on a Sunday, there should be enough room for both films to do well, right?
If you think about it PA2 is already going to be a huge earner anyway.
Even if it pulled a Cloverfield and only double it's total – that's still around $80 million total plus probably around the same international. Since Halloween is next weekend I don't think it will collapse as fast as Cloverfield did until the weekend after anyway.
$150 million plus on a $3 million budget? Win-Win!!!
Maybe having Halloween on Sunday will help more than we think but my memory from last year is that there is only room for one successful horror film around Halloween. So maybe Saw will tank or both films will cannibilize each other. I can't look at it right now because BOM is offline for maintenance.
You forgot to point out that Laremy got 9 out of 10 this week. impressive