Box-Office Wrap-Up: Oct. 1 – Oct. 3, 2010
'Social Network' takes the top and 'Let Me In' sucks wind
The film everyone thought would win ended up winning, but not by as much as some of you predicted. Laremy ended up very close with his prediction on The Social Network but I think a lot of you will be surprised by Let Me In's disastrous returns.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly: 1 Week In A Row
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| After an $8 million Friday, The Social Network held respectably through the weekend and Laremy's $22.5 million prediction looks quite nice. I noticed a lot of commenters went high on this one and predicted over $30 million and even one predicted over $40 million. Ian came closest with a $23.5 million prediction although Sean R tried to get his $22.6 million under the gun, but you all know predictions have to be in on Thursday to count. I see this one having strong legs and holding well over the next couple of weeks with 30% or so drops, such as what The Town has been experiencing. Anyone care to disagree? Did you guys go see it? What did you think? Here's my review if you're interested in my take. Result: $23 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $22.531 million was $0.469m off for a percentage error of 2.04%. |
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Snyder's owls edged out Stone's economy by mere fractions and actuals could prove Stone's film actually took second place, but for now it belongs to the Guardians of Ga'Hoole. It's actually not a bad drop for this film at only 32%, but it didn't earn enough out of the gates to really be all that impressive and that $100 million production budget makes it look even worse.
Result: $10.8 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $9.023 million, which is $1.777m off for a 16.45% error.
It would seem audiences weren't rushing home to tell their friends how much they liked Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. However, I think this result is more of a credit to The Social Network than the quality of Wall Street. Certainly, people weren't exactly excited about Wall Street, but the release of another adult themed movie following its opening weekend, and one that was getting spectacular reviews is going to take priority over the week-old film that got mixed reviews.
Result: $10.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $11.797 million, which is $1.697m off for a 16.8% error.
The Town continues to hold over very well, and does so with larger returns over the weekend than expected after a $3.1 million Friday. Affleck's sophomore effort is now up to $64.3 million overall. Not too bad eh?
Result: $10 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $11.112 million, which is $1.112m off for a 11.12% error.
Holding over just as well is Emma Stone's Easy A, which is now up to $42.4 million overall.
Result: $7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.175 million, which is $0.175m off for a 2.5% error.
I honestly have no opinion on this one. Only a 34% drop isn't too bad, but then you consider the fact it only made $8.4 million in its opening weekend and things begin to look a bit worse.
Result: $5.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.372 million, which is $1.128m off for a 20.51% error.
I know people are going to call this release a flop, but considering this is a film that was originally scheduled to hit theaters way back in 2008 I think Paramount will take a $5.35 million opening and laugh all the way to the bank. There was hardly any money spent leading up to this release on marketing, no press screenings and a last second online and television advertising explosion and they managed to weasel a little money out of the dusty old flick.
Result: $5.35 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6 million, which is $0.65m off for a 12.15% error.
Adversely, Overture can't be happy at all losing to
Case 39, a film that absolutely rained on their parade by getting a last second release while Overture had this weekend scoped out of as long as I can remember. Of course, it would service audiences to know
Let Me In isn't necessarily a horror film, but it's hard to sell a vampire movie as anything but unless it involves sparkly vampires and love struck humans confused between necrophilia and bestiality. Hmmmm… that actually does sound like a horror movie doesn't it?
Laremy's prediction proved to be wildly off, but I guess marketing and online buzz affects us all. Predictions from the commenters on Laremy's Oracle article ranged from a $27.5m prediction from busterbluth on the high side and a more accurate prediction of $7.5m from AJ on the low.
Result: $5.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.615 million, which is $6.315m off for a 119.15% error.
Up to $27 million on a $10 million budget. Everyone seems to have gotten just what they wanted out of this one.
Result: $3.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.203 million, which is $0.397m off for a 11.03% error.
It edged out Resident Evil: Afterlife by only $.2 million for the final slot this weekend. Did anyone go see this? Is it any good?
Result: $3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.264 million, which is $0.736m off for a 24.53% error.
So speak your mind, are you surprised Social Network only made $23 million? I would think so based on a lot of your predictions and how about Let Me In? All the buzz and bupkis at the box.
Next week we will have Secretariat competing for that #1 slot and My Soul to Take releasing in 3D means Wes Craven looks to bury Let Me In and Case 39 for good.
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Pretty much what I expected across the board, except for Let Me In. I swear I was joking when I wondered if Case 39 could beat it; of course those two could flip in the actuals but that's irrelevant at this point for Overture; it's probably one and done in the top ten. Also quite a tight race for number two; I'd like to see The Town surge up there and take it. It'll be getting $10 from me this afternoon as I want to see it again to firm up my opinion of it. And thanks for the shout-out Brad; I won't call a BINGO unless the actuals get me within $100,000 or so.
Regarding The Social Network: I thought it was very, very good, but not necessarily the masterpiece a lot of people are saying it is. I would still rank Inception and Toy Story ahead of it among this year's films. But as I know neither of those will win Best Picture, I would have no problem if The Social Network did. I thought this was Eisenberg's best performance so far; Oscar caliber all the way. Garfield was very good, but I felt like he, Fincher, and Sorkin tried so hard to make him the victim and to make you feel sorry for him that it made his character just a tad one dimensional, so I don't know that I'd throw him into the Supporting Actor conversation. But the Academy being how they are, in reality he probably has a much better shot at a nomination than Eisenberg.
I'd say both Garfield and Timberlake have a better chance of getting a nomination considering the way the academy usually goes.
People went to go see Case 39 instead of Let Me In? That's like picking Jersey Shore over Mad Men!
Anyway, Easy A is doing well (and deservedly so).
What happened to the What I Watched, What You Watched columns?
You do know that Jersey Shore draws in about twice as many viewers as Mad Men does, right?
Also, I called an opening of $22 million, which was a wee bit low, but I still see the film holding strong and hitting the $100 million mark by the end of its run, especially if WOM is amazing.
Too bad for Let Me In though. That legitimately looked like an interesting take on the vampire genre (and yes, I've seen Let the Right One In) and it's a shame that it bombed so hard, even moreso than a 4 year old Renee Zellweger horror flick.
Sorry, what I was referring to with my "22 million" remark was The Social Network, I didn't make that obvious.
Hmmmm, I just did a little data study and since 2000 only 12 films have managed to break the $100 million box-office mark that opened in over 2000 theaters and made less than or equal to $23 million on opening weekend.
If you're curious those 12 films are The Princess Diaries, The Patriot, Walk the Line, Freaky Friday, It's Complicated, The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Journey to the Center of the Earth, The Italian Job, Chicken Run, Something's Gotta Give, Fun with Dick and Jane and Miss Congeniality. Not sure if that gives any insight into whether or not The Social Network will hit the $100 million mark, but it definitely proves it has an uphill battle. Especially considering only one of those 12 went on to be a major Oscar contender and would have benefit from awards chatter. Additionally only four of those 12 opened on or after October 1.
If you take Social Network's 2771 theaters into account and filter the results with that information only seven films have managed to hit $100 million.
That's actually very interesting Brad, especially considering that most of those films had good placement in their advantage. About 5 of those films were boosted by the holidays, and the others were released in the summer movie season. Social Network is on its own with no holiday to boost its performance, so it definitely has an uphill battle. Then again, it has amazing reviews and if it's the main Oscar contender right now, it'll hold well, and maybe come January/February they can re-release it and get an extra push. Or not, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.
What's more, the cinemascore audience polling gave Case 39 a B- while Let Me In only got a C+… so they apparently liked it better as well.
I think Let Me In appealed to more horror fans, but lacked the crossover appeal for wider audiences. I don't think it had the teen date night appeal that the more common schlock has to help it do double digits over opening weekend,
Where do you find Cinemascores?
Too bad for Let Me In. It was good.
The Social Network was definitely not as good as everyone said it was. I was wildly disappointed with it. It is a shame about Let Me In too. I saw it and I really enjoyed it, thought it was on par if not better than the original.
Oh well, hopefully that one will earn something when it hits DVD and Blu Ray.
Horrible for Let Me In, even though not that shocking.
Good figures for The Social Network. Hopefully it will hold-over well in the months to come with the Oscar race just warming-up.
Good for The Social Network, it's a truly great film and it should profit from a good word of mouth as well. I think a drop in the 30% range is a sound prediction for the next weekend, but hell, to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 20%.
The buzz is great from both the critics and the people who have seen it.
Although a bit on the low side, I'm sure WOM will make The Social Network a big win for Sony. As for the film itself, its certainly going to end up in my top 10 but I think its too emotionally cold to really appeal to academy tastes. Its a sure nomination at this point but from the buzz I'm hearing about The King's Speech, I predict a repeat of the Rocky vs. Network and Taxi Driver situation.
P.S Once again loved TSN but for my money Scott Pilgrim is more of a generation defining film.
Also:
Sorry Buried, your wide release is likely to be canceled. Oh well, we can wait for DVD.
Let Me In was never marketable to US audiences, period. However it was a pretty good movie and should do well enough on DVD to at least not be considered a total loss.
Social Network really was not very good. I have no clue where all of the praise is coming from.
Didn't see the movie but I'm thinking the excellent reviews are partly because of the anti-establishment ethos of the film. The same film makers with the same actors making a film about Bill Gates would probably of been panned.
re legs for TSN: I highly doubt the dweeb from Zombieland can carry a film past three times its opening, no matter how much media support he gets. In fact, this movie may have been a little front loaded by fans of the dirctor and writer. Or maybe I just don't get it.
People are thinking that good film = good legs, but I believe it's good time = good legs. There's often some overlap between having a good film and having a good time but not always very much. Babies looked like it was a good film, but why see it in theaters? Why see TSN? Does anyone think it's a date movie?