Box-Office Wrap-Up: Nov. 5 – Nov. 7, 2010
'Megamind' at the top in the biggest weekend of the year since mid-July
This week Laremy didn't do too poorly with his predictions with an average percentage of error of only 19.3% with seven accurate placement predictions. Let's see how well he did as well as how well you predicted the weekend's newcomers.
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| Well, Megamind performed a little better over the weekend than I expected it would after a $12.5 million Friday. Yesterday morning I assumed that would only translate to about $40-42 million, but Saturday and Sunday proved to be a bit healthier than that. Tracking on this one said about $51 million and Laremy was right to go a bit under, but he went a little too far under. Predictions from the commenters were quite good, a few of you kept things in the $30 million range and some even went as high as $68.5 million, but the top five predictions are listed directly below.
Result: $47.6 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $42 million was $5.6m off for a percentage error of 11.76%. | |
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Another difference between the two films is The Hangover was made for $35 million while Due Date was reportedly made for $65 million. That's a major difference and a figure that pretty much signals this one is going to be depending heavily on DVD and Blu-ray sales to make a run at profit.
As for user predictions, Ian nailed it right on the nose and The Check Spot wasn't too far off. Here's the top five.
- Ian – $33.5 million
- The Check Spot – $33.2 million
- Kid – $34.3 million
- Athar – $31.6 million
- goavs – $35.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $26.84 million, which is $6.66m off for a 19.88% error.
Here are the top five user predictions.
- John Debono – $20.3 million
- The Check Spot – $21 million
- DamienB – $21.2 million
- Chuck Bartowski – $22.8 million
- Athar – $23.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $17.01 million, which is $3.09m off for a 15.37% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.65 million, which is $1.15m off for a 13.07% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.14 million, which is $1.94m off for a 23.66% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.76 million, which is $0.56m off for a 7.78% error.
Yeah, you'll see far worse and people are continuing to see it it seems.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $3.74 million, which is $1.26m off for a 25.2% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.62 million, which is $0.4m off for a 9.95% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.16 million, which is $0.84m off for a 21% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $1.97 million, which is $1.63m off for a 45.28% error.
As for other releases, I saw some of you mentioning Conviction in Laremy's Oracle article and it only managed $1.5 million for the weekend. Summit's limited release of Doug Liman's Fair Game in 46 theaters only turned up a disappointing $700,000.
Fox Searchlight's limited four theater release of Boyle's 127 Hours earned $265,925, making for $66,481 per theater. Speaking of 127 Hours I interviewed director Danny Boyle on Friday as a matter of fact. We discussed not only 127 Hours, but Trainspotting 2, 28 Months Later, Maximum City, why he dropped out of directing My Fair Lady and he tells me what his favorite movie of all-time is and why. I'll be publishing that bad boy tomorrow. So be on the look out.
Otherwise, next week sees the Wednesday release of Paramount's Morning Glory and on Friday comes Skyline (which apparently won't be screened for critics) and Unstoppable. Anyone want to make any early predictions?
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Great to see 127 Hours doing well in limited release, I don't see the source material leading to a $140 million level hit like Slumdog but I think it it will still do quite well.
127 Hours will be in top 10 next weekend!
Early guesses:
Unstoppable – 23.6M
Skyline – 17.4M
127 Hours hitting the top 10 depends on how many theaters it will get. Unstoppable will win next weekend. Morning Glory's number will be lowered by that Wednesday opening, depending on WOM. Skyline will hit double digits but won't surprise.
Unstoppable = Pelham + Chris Pine – Should translate into $25M
Skyline: Tough to predict, if people are curious, I think it could even reach $30M, but the marketing is too small, and there's no one to care about in the trailers, maybe $18M?
I'm from Malaysia and Unstoppable has been on the cinema here. So far, the reviews from my friends has been negative.
Well, looks like skyline might have a chance there.
But i'm rooting for Morning Glory. Rachel McAdams FTW!
Check out the teaser trailer for “Kung Fu Panda 2” which was shown with “Megamind”!
http://www.vlicious.org/2010/11/teaser-trailer-for-kung-fu-panda-2.html
I'll play Laremy's BINGO card on my Due Date call. I'm surprised Megamind didn't crack $50 million at least, it seemed like all the ingredients were there for a bigger opening. Interesting that all three of DreamWorks Animation's films this year have opened lower than is usual for tentpole animation. Dragon rebounded to finish nicely, but Shrek finished up low for the franchise. I'm curious to see how Megamind ends up. Nice opening for 127 Hours, though clearly the rumblings I heard/read about it rivaling There Will Be Blood's $100,000 PTA were a bit lofty. Looking forward to that Boyle interview.
I haven't crunched any numbers on next weekend's films, but I'd probably bet on a Megamind repeat.
Due Date is not in the same league as Hangover, not by a long shot. It's funny, sure, but it doesn't have what it takes to be the next big comedy. It'll probably do Couples Retreat numbers when it's all said and done.
Maybe I'm overestimating Skyline, but it does look pretty cool & more marketable than RUNAWAY TRAIN OH MY GOLLY next week. Either Megamind will repeat or Skyline will take the crown next week, IMO.
Lastly, RED will be Summit's biggest non-Twilight film here in the States very soon. I'm pretty sure that no one saw that coming; those holds have been unheard of, especially in that genre of film. Good on them.
Don't underestimate the power of women, when predicting Morning Glory's performance.
The marketing has made it look like the next Devil Wears Prada, with Rachael McAdams taking on the Anne Hathaway role.
That's the marketing angle despite the fact that J.J.Abrams produced it and Harrison Ford is in a major role.
Last year we all underestimated The Blind Side, which like Morning Glory, looked like pure counterprograming against November's tentpole releases and skewed to older women.
However, I can't imagine anyone in America wanting to see Made in Dagenham the following week.
Unstoppable will win next weekend. Looks great.
I saw the trailer for Skyline – it looks like a low budget ID4/District 9 hybrid wannabe with adequate but not spectacular effects.
I'm a little surprised it's even getting a theatrical release. I think therefore it's a bit of a wildcard entry for next weekend.
I think that Morning Glory will be neutered by the Wedenesday opening. I'm sensing some mild trouble around this one. The marketing seems to have gone through a shift to focus on McAdams, it's been moved at least once on the schedule and no-one is mentioning the presence of Ford and Keaton in the trailers? They're trying to make it a title comparable to 'The Devil Wears Prada' methinks and a Wednesday opening isn't always a sign of confidence, but trying to get some money in advance before word of mouth gets around.
Unstoppable looks as dumb as a post – but also offers a very simple premise and boatloads of destruction. I think next week's top may be –
Megamind
Unstoppable
Due Date
(bit of a guess but) Skyline
Morning Glory
But I'm probably totally wrong!
To be fair though Harrison Ford isn't really that bankable these days.
The last time Harrison ford was in a hit movie was Bruno, in which Sacha Baron Cohen's flamboyant fashion reporter attempted to "interview" Harrison Ford by stalking him.
No he isn't now, but then purely on her own, neither is McAdams particularly.
my money's on Unstoppable next week as well
Good to see you have a mobile version set up. It loads much faster and is easier for me to read and comment on the go. Kudos. One area of Improvement: the #1 movie of the week, in this case Megamind is set in such a way you can see the poster, but all of the paragraph content is cut off to the right and impossible to read.
Yeah, unfortunately the mobile plug-in doesn't much like formatting outside of standard text so unfortunately some articles may be a little difficult to read. Sorry about that.