Box-Office Wrap-Up: Nov. 27 – Nov. 29, 2009
COMMENTS
New Moon barely fends off The Blind Side...
It was the third strongest box office weekend of the year, and that's coming on the heels of the strongest weekend in the last 16 months. So it looks like people are hungry for films, even if they aren't necessarily quality efforts.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 5 Weeks In A Row
Alert commenter Nick put a $41.7m call on the board on Friday morning, a very nice prognostication. It looks as though New Moon was even more frontloaded than Twilight, this fell over 70 percent. Still, it will hit $400m with ease, and as Eli pointed out – when a film passes that 2.5x its production budget threshold we finally consider it profitable.
Result: 42.5 million (My rank: #1, $18.5m off)
Wow. It pulled off an old school trick, gaining 17.6 percent in its second weekend. Very well timed to coincide with the Thanksgiving holiday, where family films bank.
Result: 40.1 million (My rank: #3, $27.0m off)
3. 2012
I was too bearish on this weekend. My mistake was not looking at last year's Turkey Day numbers, which were quite good against the weekend prior. This weekend's top twelve cleared $175m, so I was quite light.
Result: 18.0 million (My rank: #4, $6.0m off)
4. Old Dogs
Wild Hogs opened around $40m, so the reviews and lack of innovation probably scared folks away.
Result: 16.8 million (My rank: #2, $6.2m off)
This gained 30 percent too, clearly audiences felt it was family holiday appropriate — though I wonder how they felt after actually seeing it. Regardless, Disney needed it, and the movie finally went over $100m domestically this weekend.
Result: 16.0 million (My rank: #8, $9.8m off)
As optimally as Blind Side was timed, that's how poorly Ninja Assassin was positioned. It should have been scheduled for July or October.
Result: 13.1 million (My rank: #5, $1.8m off)
7. Planet 51
Are you seeing a trend yet? You and I could have released a children's film this week that did relatively well.
Result: 10.2 million (My rank: #9, $4.3m off)
JM was right, they are releasing this one on the Slumdog Millionaire schedule. And it seems to be working so far.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #7, $.6m off)
I implore you to see this movie unless you absolutely hate Wes Anderson. It's a charming little stop-motion, great for kids and adults. C'mon, give it a try. For me.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #6, $3.4m off)
The Road is only $10k back of the top ten on the predictions, I'm hoping the actuals save my prediction.
Result: 1.5 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
How say you? Surprised by the 70 percent drop? Flabbergasted by Blind Side almost taking it? Will you, or did you, go see Fantastic Mr. Fox? Let me have it in the comment section below.
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According to Boxofficemojo, New Moon has a production budget of 50 million. Throw in about 100 (I'd like to think this is a gross overestimation on my part) for marketing and prints and the film's already broken even. Summit needs it too…I don't think they've had another financial success this year.
Overall a great weekend for the box office. Next weekend should be interesting: The Blind Side should surpass New Moon, the performances of Armored and Brothers will be interesting and we'll have another strong batch of limited releases choking up huge PTAs.
Next week:
1.Everybody's Fine-$25.3 (N/A)
2.The Blind Side-$25.2 (-37%)
3.New Moon-$23.2 (-45%)
4.2012-$12.6 (-30%)
5.Brothers-$11.4 (N/A)
6.A Christ. Carol-$10 (-38%)
7.Precious-$8.1 (+14%) and Transylmania-$8.1 (N/A)
8.Old Dogs-$7.9* (-71%)
9.Armored-$4.8 (N/A)
10.Ninja Assassin-$3.2 (-76%)
It was a very interesting weekend indeed, but TBS has to be the success story of the year now. It did something mainstream movies rearly do nowadays and that make more in it's second weekend than in it's first. At this rate I wouldn't be suprised if it made it to 200mill domestic.
Also:
Tied w/Old Dogs:
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox-$7.9 (+13%)
next weekend:
1. The Blind Side – $28 Million
2. New Moon – $20 Million
3. Brothers – $16 Million (they've been marketing the hell out of this thing)
4. 2012 – $13 Million
5. Everybody's Fine – $11 Million
6. Precious – $ 9 Million
7. Old Dogs – $7 Million
8. A Christmas Carol – $ 5.5 Million
9. Armored – $3 Million
10. The Road – $ 2 Million
i totally forgot about Mr. Fox, bump down the The Road
It should be to no ones surprise that the family films picked up their grosses from last weekend due to school being out for kids and the fact it was a holiday. But if last year's Bolt is a sign of how these family films are going to due next week most of them will slide at about 60%. New Moon will probably level off next week to about 45%, since it was bound to drop hard anyway. But hey its still over 200 million, Summit has to be happy.
I was expecting a 65%+ fall for New Moon, but not a 70%! This movie was really frontloaded. The Blind Side will be the winter´s Hangover. 2012 is being huge overseas, his results have been impressive.
Next Weekend: The Blind Side will finally be first place, and New Moon will fall 55-60%.
Hey I saw "fantastic mr. Fox" this weekend! I also saw "boondock saints 2" so I almost deserve a merit badge from the junior woodchuck guide book for seeing such movies of opposing ends of the audio and visual spectacle front.
I think you guys are missing something.
Sure, a film needs ~2.5x its production budget in box office to break even. But I think you are forgetting very large profits in DVD sales and TV licensing. Using only box office info means that most films don't profit at the box office, which is counter-intuitive, since there are still film production companies. You have to account for large sums of money elsewhere to realize that most films are in fact profitable.
I saw "Fantastic Mr. Fox"–LOVED it! My 12-year-old sister loved it. My twin brother loved it. My 18-year-old cousin, who's normally only into action and comedy, said it was "the most legit film I've seen in a while." In summation? If you exist, see Fantastic Mr. Fox! Even if you hate Wes Anderson, SEE FANTASTIC MR. FOX!! Really, guys, it's just that simple. Take your whole family. Even if you don't like deadpan humor (all of which is amazing), the film still has a great plot with action scene that are as exciting as those in live-action blockbusters, and the pace is quick and the plot is cool. You will at least like it, if not love it! Your family will thank you profusely for making such a good choice. Laremy and Brad are right: this film needs to be seen!
I was planning on seeing "Precious" this weekend, but I ended up doing a lot more unwanted family activities than I originally planned, so I'll have to see it within the next few weeks. I still need to see "New Moon" as well.
Next weekend, I predict NM will keep the crown. Why? Because the huge family-appeal films that hold so well over Thanksgiving weekend ("Blind Side," "A Christmas Carol," "Planet 51," last year's "Bolt") fall the hardest on the weekend after Thanksgiving, normally by about 65%. Meanwhile, films that aren't as family-friendly ("Twilight," "2012") hold better, normally in the 50-55% range. This means NM will end up with maybe around $20mil next weekend, while "Blind Side" will only get $15mil.
As for next weekend's opening releases ("Brothers," "Transylmania," "Armored," "Everybody's Fine"), I predict thusly:
-"Brothers": The only one with a chance of success. Some of my friends are interested in seeing it; I'm piqued by the trailer; advance reviews are not completely damning. This seems like a recipe for a mild hit, opening to about $14-17mil.
-"Everybody's Fine": It's in the dust. "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" and "It's Complicated" look to be much huger successes. Oh, and if a Christmas-themed movie is not release on or before Thanksgiving, it often fails. $4-6mil.
-"Armored": Looks like crap, and what's worse, it looks boring. "Brothers" may not be much good, but it has that scandal factor to it that'll draw in audiences. "Armored" has no such factor. $4-6mil.
-"Transylmania": What the hell is up with this film? I've seen no marketing, and BOM doesn't even has its estimated theater count for next weekend like it does for the other films. This is a bomb in the making. $2mil at best, but it might not even crack $1mil.
@Dan Tralder: You make a point, but I personally look at theatrical as something completely different from everything else considering Warner Bros. may release a film theatrically, Warner Home Video may release it on DVD, Hasbro may make and sell the toys and NBC may broadcast the film on television. Essentially, once you get away from the theater there are a lot more hands in the cookie jar as rights are sold off here and there.
I remember listening to Hugh Jackman on The Howard Stern Show talking about how he signed a contract saying he could never reveal the budget for Wolverine. He then went on to say the numbers are never accurate and sooner or later a number gets pasted on that in no way reflects the true cost. So to truly debate a film's profitability is pretty much a waste of time.
However, considering many of these studios are publicly traded companies the fact details are allowed to be kept quiet is quite interesting to me.
I was trying to figure out what would be the date movie for next week, but it looks like I don't have to. Judging from past years, next weekend is when people will be shopping. Don't forget to mail those packages early.
Woooow! Look at the actors in new releases next week, who were famous enough to attract financing, and get a movie made, but apparantly not considered enough of a box office draw to get a decent release date. Matt Dillon, Lawrence Fishburne, Jean Reno, Natalie Portman, Tobey Maguire, Robert Deniro, Kate Beckinsale, Drew Barrymore.
This reminds me of an article I read about the Ulmer scale. How, sometimes, when you're putting together a project, you sell it by putting together an ensemble cast whose ratings, together, add up to at least 90. The scale is to 100 e.g. Wil Smith is tops with a 96, and Russel Crowe 81 (as of 2009 in studio level films).
Word of mouth for The Blind Side must have been crazy good. I saw it opening weekend with my whole family and we all liked it.
That's a pretty simple formula… 6 tickets for a whole family obviously makes more money than 2 tickets for a couple.
Then of course, if mom likes it she will go to work on Monday and tell all of her co-workers to see it.
I'll go see The Fantastic Mr. Fox this weekend, just because I like you guys.
I don't think you guys understand completely. New Moon is doing a fantastic job. $230 mil cume in 10 days?! Thats beating HP and other blockbusters. Sure It didnt hold and dropped 70%, but it has no competition for the next few weeks till Did you hear about the Morgans? so people will be checking out. Its final cume should end in the 300's. Thats pretty amazing for a film with a $50 mil budget. Give New Moon some slack. It BEAT Twilight already for goodness sakes!
Also- I saw FANTASTIC MR.FOX- AMAZING! Hope it gets nominated for best Animated FIlm.
*Comment
anyone heard of flickpicks?
it's like fantasy football, but it's actually fantasy theater.
you own a theater and choose how many screens will show a particular movie at a time, and which movies to show this weekend to get the most money possible.
playflickpicks.com
@Brad Brevet: The point of Warner Bros Home Video being a different company is well taken, but not for TV. Warner Bros has to sell the TV License to NBC before NBC can make money off of ads. Try this article out for size:
http://www.slate.com/id/2124078/
"New Moon" dropped, and I figured that it would, but I didn't think that it would hit so hard this weekend. If it doesn't hold as well as "Twilight" did last year (it ended up losing about 50% of its audience the third weekend, 40% the next, 35% the next), it'll barely break $300 million. That's fantastic for a $50 million dollar film, but considering the huge start, a slow finish is definitely a disappointment.
"Old Dogs" is doing poorly not just because of reviews, but because of the huge competition. "The Blind Side" is a surprise smash hit & that's the choice for families this holiday. Even if that was out of the picture, "Christmas Carol" and "Planet 51" (and even "Mr. Fox") took about $33 million in receipts this three-day weekend; certainly some of that money could've gone to "Dogs". Disney's really not having a good year, are they? Hopefully "The Princess and the Frog" will be an "Enchanted" sized hit, at least.
Next weekend will be tough- I think "The Blind Side" could actually beat "New Moon" at this pace, but the drops across the board won't be pretty.
@Dan Tralder: That was actually my point, they have to sell the TV license, but for purpose of box-office discussion and determining a film's profitability based on box-office the money generated at the ticket booths is all we have to go on. And it's a conversation had on the most general of terms and regarding domestic box-office only as evidenced by the headline and numbers provided. Without accessing the confidential reports the Slate article refers to and any other numerous reports to determine a film's bottom line there is no one that can speak to a film's profitability.
We have had this conversation around these parts so many times I'm not sure I can say it enough, whenever discussing profitability it's never an exact science and we don't pretend it is. We try and operate on a basic level when discussing these things and work from numbers accessible to everyone so everyone can participate. Yes, companies make money from box-office, books, magazines, toys, DVDs, TV sales, international sales, clothing, posters, etc. and we don't deny that. But if we were to add those things to box-office reports I don't think we would ever complete an article let alone be able to even access that information. And if we didn't discuss a film's perceived performance these articles would be as interesting as smacking yourself in the forehead.
If anything, I would say the Slate article you linked to pretty much confirms every time Laremy says a film is going to struggle to reach profitability. I guess people are asking he add "based on domestic box-office numbers" each time, but isn't that obvious as that's what we're talking about and we aren't attempting to predict future DVD/Blu-ray sales let alone everything else? Obviously films make money on the back-end and in a variety of ways, but this is a box-office discussion and it's what makes things so interesting when a film is profitable from ticket sales alone, and most of all, news and discussion worthy.
Perhaps if we knew what films made on average on the back-end we could add that to the discussion, but the mystique of Hollywood is to keep us in the dark and believing everything is profitable and they never make bad decisions. So we work with what we have and don't have any way of estimating the money made in book, TV or merchandising deals. So, yes, you are 100% correct in saying studios make money off their movies elsewhere, but we are strictly talking box-office here.
I knew New Moon would drop, I already thought it won't make twice its opening weekend.
And hey, of course its a financial sucess, a $57M production budget and marketing and theater shares of around $100M makes a $200M profit, which means they'll keep on making box office disasters for the next 5 years.
@Brad Brevet:re … but this is a box-office discussion and it's what makes things so interesting when a film is profitable from ticket sales alone, and most of all, news and discussion worthy.
The Slate article reinforces what you are saying by talking about the back end deals. This is why films that bank are so awesome for everybody involved. When a movie becomes profitable at the box office, most back end deals by producers, directors, and actors kick in and everybody cashes in.
Great to see how well The Blind Side is doing. I don't know if anyone predicted it to improve on its opening weekend.
Yes, New Moon is a hit, but it will have zero legs going into December. It's not a competition thing, it's a frontloaded thing. It's not going to pick up Word of Mouth through December, anyone who wanted to see it, saw it. The Blind Side however is a word of mouth thing, where people hungry for a feel good family film (if it didn't have that scene where Michael visits his old friends, probably would've gotten a PG) are going out in droves. I like the 6 tickets for a family as opposed to 2 tickets for a couple.
And what will happen to Eclipse. It's different to being the only event picture to open in November to being surrounded by event pictures in the summer. I'm curious to see how Twilight does then. I don't think Eclipse will make as much as New Moon, but it should be a decent sized hit, more like the original Twilight.
Next week is tough. The Blind Side will beat New Moon, but films never do well the first weekend after Thanksgiving. Has a film ever opened $20+ million during that time frame? You may have a midlevel hit among the bunch, and that's a huge maybe. Also, films, even good films, tend to drop 50% or greater that weekend, so don't expect many solid holds.
@The Check Spot: The Last Samurai ($24,3 million) is the only film to open with above $20M on that weekend
@The Check Spot:
Eclipse won't make as much because of Toy Story 3.
Neither of the other movies in the twilight saga went toe to toe against anything from everyone's favourite animation studio Pixar.
Everybody go see Fantastic Mr. Fox! I've seen it twice already.
I plan on seeing Fantastic Mr. Fox this Saturday. I love Rushmore, Bottle Rocket, and Darjeeling Limited. But even if it wasn't Anderson it just looks good.
quote
10. The Men Who Stare at Goats
The Road is only $10k back of the top ten on the predictions, I'm hoping the actuals save my prediction.
unquote
Laremy you are correct. Just checked actuals at boxofficemojo and The Road squeaked ahead by just $394. And the per theater average was $13,534 – higher than all but the few really limited releases (Princess & Frog, Me & Orson Welles). When is this going wider than 111 theaters?
@Laremy You keep recommending The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Brad highly recommends it, and some others on this site do too. While it looks enjoyable as a unique style of wide release, with good humor, I haven't gone to see it because I'm unsettled by it's storyline. Since you've seen it perhaps you could clear things up. Isn't the fox actually the bad guy? And if he's not bad, but merely "true to his nature", hasn't he nevertheless brought his problems upon himself? This is the only thing keeping me from seeing this film. Am I wrong?
The Road might actually make some money if Dimension pulled their heads out and released the film on a wider scale. I live in a city of 500k and the nearest showing of the film is 3 hrs away. Dimension are a bunch of tools.