Box-Office Wrap-Up: Nov. 13 – Nov. 15, 2009
COMMENTS
A big weekend for 2012 and Precious.
People were starving for an "event" movie and 2012 was definitely that. Brad didn't love it, and I'm right there with him. It certainly had flaws. But it's been months since the last tentpole release, and timing was far more important than quality in this instance.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Week In A Row
1. 2012
And really, it could have been much worse. The effects were solid. It was nice to see it outperform Emmerich's 10,000 B.C., a film that was even more flawed. It should have a decent chance to hang in there next weekend too as New Moon has far higher female interest.
Result: 65.0 million (My rank: #1, $13.9m off)
My theory here is that it started so low it didn't have much room to fall. It also had the most theaters and 3-D dollars to work with. It's all going to come down to how the international audience receives it. Any guesses?
Result: 22.3 million (My rank: #2, $5.8m off)
Bustray, JM, and The Checkspot were $200k, $100k, and dead on with their calls on 2012. Impressive stuff. Everyone not named Dan Tralder was high on Men Who Stare at Goats, including me. It's a tough sell, this film, even I don't know who to tell to see it.
Result: 6.2 million (My rank: #3, $1m off)
$35k per theater! That suggests every single showing was near 80 percent capacity. So far it's been a pitch perfect release from Lionsgate.
Result: 6.0 million (My rank: #, $m off)
International audiences saved Sony's bacon. Then again, they seem to be experts with the overseas releases.
Result: 5.1 million (My rank: #4, $1.8m off)
It fell 61 percent this weekend. Pretty typical "horror" result.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #5, $.8m off)
It's at $124m so far. If only they'd kept the budget reasonable, this would have been a nice success story.
Result: 4.25 million (My rank: #8, $.3m off)
Over $100m for the little budget film that could. People all across the country are considering dipping into savings and maxing out the credit cards. My advice? Start with a great concept.
Result: 4.20 million (My rank: #7, $.4m off)
Five R-Rated films have crossed $100m domestically, which seems to be about average. No, Law Abiding Citizen won't be joining that list, it will be lucky to hit $80m, though I had an enjoyable time with it.
Result: 3.9 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
10. The Box
I implored people to see it, to no avail. Looks like DVD will settle the "cult classic" question on this title.
Result: 3.1 million (My rank: #10, $0.9m off)
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I agree that while 2012 was flawed it was still pretty damn entertaing. Atleast it was hell of alot better than that crapfest 10,000 BC.
My Prediction For Next Week:
1. New Moon – 110.1M
2. 2012 – 25.8M
3. Planet 51 – 17M
4. The Blind Side 14M
2012 was big. Finnaly, a movie that doesn´t disapoints. Precius and A Christmas Carol also have great results. And yes, Sony knows what international markets want. 2012 already made $225M WorldWide. Great result.
Next Weekend: 2012 will do about $28M, and New Moon will hit $100M!
I'm just going to roll with what I wrote a week ago, even though I probably should update it. For instance, hardly anyone seems to know The Blind Side is being released.
1. New Moon-$108 million
I have consulted the oracles, looked at entrails,
and cast the bones, but I haven't been able to
find one scintilla of a hint that New Moon can't
match the 55% opening weekend increase for a sequel
that we saw with Transformers ROTF. And many of
signs of high demand.
2. 2012-$35 million
3. Planet 51-$30 million
The trailer makes me want to go out and see this
movie. A little better than Bolt last year.
4.The Blind Side-$25 million
A wildcard that could become a breakout hit. When
is the last time Hollywood put out a solid, mainstream
inspirational movie? Forrest Gump? Absolute genius
to put it out at Thanksgiving, and if it succeeds,
it could become a holiday example for future projects.
This is the movie I will see this weekend. But has
word gotton out about it? My numbers actually say
$19 million, but I feel this weeks movie lineup
leaves unserved demographics on the table.
5. Are we looking at the second biggest weekend
of the year?
2012 went way beyond what i was expecting
next week:
1. New Moon – $85 Million
2. 2012 – $27 Million
3. The Blind Side – $19 Million
4. A Christmas Carol – $12 Million
5. Precious – $9 Million
6. Planet 51 – $7 Million
7. The Men Who Stare At Goats – $3.5 Million
8. This Is It – $3 Million
9. Couples Retreat – $2.5 Million
10. Paranormal Activity – $2 Million
I'm a fan of both franchises, but it really bothers me that New Moon might make more it's opening weekend than Harry Potter did.
If your New Moon predictions aren't in the triple digits, you aren't going to be too happy come Monday morning. I see huge things for this movie.
New Moon $109
Why do the predictions for Twilight have to cross 100 million? Can it please just do the same if not less than it's predecessor's performace. Hopefully new moon will have a very steep drop-off. I've still got high-hopes for Avatar to have the years biggest openning.
@JAB: Why should it bother you. You can't directly compare them since Potter did $80 million BEFORE the weekend. Harry Potter also holds the record for a worldwide opening of…get ready…$394 million dollars! (wednesday through sunday)
Even if New Moon makes more than HPB opening weekend believe me when I say it won't come close to 300mill domestic. It will have a huge opening, but after that it will drop harder than a rock. I see around 220 to 250mill final domestic which is still a huge success, but not anything incredible considering the 100+ opening.
I gotta agree with that. The demand for new moon (and by demand I mean for meandering youngsters and fans of sparkly vamps) pretty much calls for a huge (probably upwards of 100 million) opening weekend and about a 65 percent dropoff the week after.
@Colin:
Last year, a ton of people underestimated the opening of "Twilight" (me, I thought it would hit $40 million weekend-$100 million domestic). It ended up making nearly $70 mil in that weekend alone, with heavy competition, no stars, and a literary source that's far less popular than "Harry Potter".
Now it's a franchise, not an unproven movie anymore. It's a pop culture event for many filmgoers; hell, midnight showings have been selling out 2 MONTHS in advance.
Next Week:
New Moon: $95.6
2012: $23.3
The Blind Side: $18.7
A Christmas Carol:$18.1
Planet 51: $17.8 (havent seen it marketed very much)
I'm thinking the only thing that prevented Emmerich from topping his own record of TDAT was 2012's longer running time (and that TDAT would sit higher than $68m when adjusted).
That said, it was practically the disaster movie to end all disaster movies. Emmerich said it's his last one and he wanted to go out as huge as possible. Critics like Roger Ebert agree with the label and it's what I've practically been telling people if they're interested.
I'm willing to say that the one thing every dude is into this year (some more than others) is Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. It just beat the entertainment launch record and I know for a fact not a single woman could go anywhere this week without one of us talking about the game. Over the next few weeks, this will be reversed for New Moon. (I realize the generalization, but I think it's undeniably accurate).
Part of me will die inside if New Moon can beat TF2's 3-day opening, because who really wants to remember 2009's biggest opening weekend belonged to New Moon? (without taking Avatar into consideration)
1.) New Moon – $103m
2.) 2012 – $30.1m
Planet 51 should do moderate business, considering the demo needs a family-friendlier film than Christmas Carol, and The Blind Side will probably bomb.
with two big groups of people (people who like sports and people who like Sandra Bullock) ready to pounce, The Blind Side won't be bombing. This weekend's gonna be huge. Also, @mfan, i realized that, I just dont really want to see anything Twilight do better in any way than anything Harry Potter.
@Eli: Transformers ROTF did $91 million on wednesday and thursday, then $109 million on the weekend. Why is everybody obsessed with the weekend only numbers when blockbusters are released on wednesday? In fact, I'm thinking New Moon wasn't released on wednesday just so the condensed weekend numbers would add to the hype. But I think it's a bad strategy as the subsequent big drop will be news too.
@Vince
Well it's an undeserved one that provides a sad statement for the film business in the 21st century. Hopefully it will be heavilly front-loaded and will sink after it's midnight showings. Remember Harry Potter 6 set midnight-showing records and went down unexpectadly after that. I haven't even seen HP6 and I don't think I have to bet anything in stipulating that it is leaps and bounds ahead of twilight in terms of quality.
@mfan: The difference between those two is that ROTF was mainly terrible and NM has a LOT of hype behind it.
I reallly liked 2012. It was cheesy, yes, but it was also an adreniline-filled, fun, wild ride! Definately going to see it again.
I HATE Twilight, and, although I know this won't happen, I hope New Moon flops.
@gobeatbox!: Your "meandering youngsters" comment hilariously made it sound like teenagers were going to go see Twilight willy nilly. Nice!
next week
new moon-$125
2012-$30
planet 51-$29
blind side-$24
precious-$18
christmas carol-$16
men who stare at goats-$4
this is it-$3
paranormal activity-$3
couples retreat-$3
fantastic mr fox-$2
pirate radio-$2
New Moon: $90-100mil (I'll give an exact estimate at the time of the next oracle)
Planet 51: $15mil, but with a possible increase the following weekend
Blind Side: $10 or less. I don't see why people think this will be such a success. A big star alone won't cut it anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if it bombed with $5mil. Nobody knows it's coming out, and the trailer looked frankly boring, and I can't think of any way in which it stands out from any other movie as a must-see.
@m1: Have to agree with Mfan, NM is going to drop like a stone after the first weekend. I mean Twilight didn't really great response from fans which is probably why it didn't manage to hit $200 million even with over $70 million on the opening weekend. (Compared to the Transformers film where even though I didn't like it, but the positive response to the first helped boast ROTF opening weekend.)
I'm going to guess a $88 million opening weekend and think $215 million is a safe bet but its not going to be a Dark Knight level hit.
@JM:
Have you watched any sporting event at all over the past month? Including but not limited to The World Series, Monday Night Football, any College Football game, big matchups in the NBA or NHL? Well, ads for the Blind Side are all over pretty much everything I just listed, and also every commercial break on ESPN. So…people know it's coming out, and honestly it's not gonna be a blockbuster by any means, especially against New Moon, but it has quite the market. I'm not saying it will, but I wouldn't be shocked if it beat out 2012 next weekend for 2nd place.
I am the only one who thinks those predictions for New Moon are very high?
I have:
New Moon – $61 Million
2012 – $24 Million
Planet 51 – $14 Million
The Blind Side – $9 Million
I don't see New Moon affecting 2012 much, they seem to be targeting different demographics, no?
I don't believe my predictions for New Moon are too high at all. Honestly anyone who doesn't think it will hit triple digits at this point is kidding themselves. This article alone proves it's going to crush midnight records next week.
I saw the stupid but fun 2012 Saturday, and a significant number of the people in the audience went bonkers (in a positive way) when the New Moon preview showed. I have no doubt it'll have a big weekend. I'd guess in the mid-$90Ms.
@Jeremy Baril:
So you think New Moon is going to do less than the first Twilight? LOL.
Fail.
Never gonna happen.
I looked at everything I could for any sign of a Twilight slowdown. Awards shows, Presales, Web search volume, DVD sales, Soundtrack sales, Paramour CD sales, Possible competition, etc. Did you hear that in L.A., a few crazy fans are already in line for the movie? This very discussion has been more active than for 2012. Like it or not, New Moon could surprise on the upside, but no way is it going to surprise on the downside.
I still stand by the idea that new moon will open around 100 million if not the biggest opening weekend of 2009 (couple 2012 with new moon potentially breaking records. There's your apocalypse) and then falling HARD afterwards.
Do you think when the mayans predicted the end of civilization in 2012 that they knew they'd be long since dead as a society. Like "the world ends in 2012, we won't be there. Good luck."
Heres my breakdown for how New Moon will play.
Midnights – $26 million
Opening Day – $62 million
2nd Day – $32 million
3rd Day – $19-20 million
= $112-113 million OW.
As you can see even with huge dropoffs it will still make over 100mill OW due to that monstrous opening day.
Update for tuesday: Last week the original Twilight movie sold another 149,284 units bringing the total to 9,312,042 for $167,739,089. These new sales have been going on for weeks, and must be to people who are planning to see the movie.
I think the biggert test for new moon is in the potential longevity of it in theaters. 100 million weekend is a hugh likelihood, and a surpassing final gross is also likely. But how much? 250 million? 300? Most everyone predicts a 60-65 percent drop going into its second weekend but even that spells huge dollars. Twilight had a lot of repeat business, could new moon as well? New moon does look better…what about potential crossover appeal? The competition this year looks more fierce, but last year twilight was an underdog and this year its a juggernaut. This is interesting. How much did this one cost? Production for the first was estimated 37 million (the summit special). Obviously the second one upped the budget, but to what, 60 million maybe?
Another interesting thing is to see what happens when the third one opens in summer. Harry potter traditionally (not counting prisoner of azkaban that is) has lower grossing openings and longer staying power. Could the twilight saga pull the same?
@JAB: I watched Monday Night Football yesterday, and sure enough, there was an ad for The Blind Side on it. I also asked around and it seems people don't recognize the name, and aren't neccessarily aware it's going to open this weekend, but it turns out they have heard of it. You have to give them a plot description, or tell them Sandra Bullock is in it, then they say, "oh, yeah!" One girl made a comment about Sandra's blonde hair color. This could actually help my theory that the movie will have legs. We'll see. When people actually consider their moviegoing options, they may say "oh, yeah!"