Box-Office Wrap-Up: May 8 – May 10, 2009
COMMENTS
Star Trek won at the box-office, but it couldn't hit $80m.
Star Trek did pretty well this weekend, but not enough to hit my lofty projections. No worries, it's going to stick around due to the solid reviews and word-of-mouth it's generating. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 4 Weeks In A Row
1. Star Trek
I think I read somewhere that the budget was above $150m, a huge gamble on Paramount's part. It looks like it's going to pay off though, this will be the highest grossing Trek ever by around Wednesday or so.
Result: 76.5 million (My rank: #1, $15.9m off)
From $85m to $27m is quite a fall. Did EW call that? Clearly this one suffered at the hands of both Trek and lackluster audience reaction. It needs about another $120m at the theater to give it a shot at profit on DVD. Should get there, barely, but this 68 percent drop was even worse than the largely panned X-Men: The Last Stand's second weekend.
Result: 27.0 million (My rank: #2, $10.9m off)
It couldn't have cost much to make, but they won't do anything internationally either. So it's a case of good news / bad news for Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
Result: 10.4 million (My rank: #4, $1.7m off)
4. Obsessed
It held up better than I predicted. I still haven't seen it. Does anyone out there want to give it a plug in the comments section? I just want to know what we're dealing with here.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #5, $1.6m off)
5. 17 Again
Next Day Air was actually up about $150k for the #5 slot on Friday, but Efron and the family dollar pulled ahead as the weekend got going. Warner Bros. has got to be fairly pleased with 17 Again; it's nearing the coveted triple digits status.
Result: 4.4 million (My rank: #8, $1.0m off)
6. Next Day Air
As much as I love Mos Def, he's picked some truly odd projects. 16 Blocks made around $60m. Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy cleared $100m … but probably also doomed any sequel chances. Be Kind, Rewind was a disaster. I guess what I'm getting at is that I'd like to represent Mr. Def. He's got talent, but it's being squandered.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #3, $5.1m off)
7. The Soloist
The Soloist picked up another 57 theaters this weekend, I suppose it's gaining momentum? Or are they of the "dollar" theater variety? At only $23.5m cume, the numbers aren't promising.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: #6, $.2m off)
According to the figures I've often heard, a film needs to hit 3x its budget theatrically to lock in a profit. That means Monsters vs. Aliens needs another $200 million from somewhere. Perhaps the 3-D split is better though? It's hard to tell if the studios are gambling smart… or simply gambling by banking on 3-D.
Result: 3.3 million (My rank: #7, $.2m off)
9. Earth
Yep, it was what we thought it was this weekend.
Result: 2.48 million (My rank: #9, $0.18m off)
And now it's time for something difficult. Star Trek will most likely clear $40 million next weekend. Is that going to be enough to top Angels and Demons? It's our first real horse race of the summer. It it helps Da Vince Code opened at $77m and went on to make $758m worldwide… so it shouldn't be close if this one fits a similar profile. Your turn!
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Star Trek is amazing, but i dont think it can get enough to beat Angels & Demons. I would love for it to. The book was amazing by Dan Brown, but part of me wants to keep rooting for J.J. Should be interesting!
Obsessed is super easy to review.
If you've seen the trailer, you've seen the movie.
Though, I still found it enjoyable.
Ali Larter=Crazy Bitch.
Beyonce=Pissed Off Wife.
After much of the movie…catfight ensues.
The End.
Wonder what will happen when Angels and Demons comes out, not really a family movie like Star Trek.
Two weeks in a row perhaps?
And Star Trek RULED.
I haven't watched the original show or anything, and I was BLOWN AWAY.
It was SOOOO much fun.
LOVED IT.
Can't wait for Angels and Demons this weekend.
I'm really hoping it's at least half as good as the book was.
Then Terminator.
Then Drag Me To Hell.
May is a HUGE movie month.
I'm loving it.
I think that 70 million is better than expected! Something over 80 million is… Well, 'overrated'. Certainly will reach 200 million, but I don't think will do much more than that… Too much competition! Wolverine, on the other hand, if it reaches 150 million, Fox should be proud! (or it shouldn't, since it will become the X-men movie with the worst box-office). Regarding Angels & Demons: probably 45-50 million, but I think it will top Star Trek nonetheless.
Yeah A&D will definitely beat Star Trek. But I really hope Trek eventually rakes in 300m, though I doubt it.
I think the only movies that are a sure shot to cross 300m this summer are Terminator, Transformers, and that annoying Harry Potter .
Personally…
an early prediction…
Angel and Demons – 55 – 60
Star Trek – 40 – 50
Wolverine – SCREWED
Spot-on, Sebastin.
MY EARLY PREDICTIONS
1. ANGELS & DEMONS – $56.8 million
2. STAR TREK – $44.5 million
3. WOLVERINE – $9.8 million
Angels and Demons honestly will be this year's 2nd Narnia. Star Trek will stay extremely solid. Wolverine is a goner.
I'll probably see Star Trek again this weekend. I really enjoyed it.
:]
Angels and Demons will make 25 mil. opening day and will make a 55 mil. opening weekend. Terminator will shock all and pull in 90 million Memorial day weekend.
Angels & Demons is gonna be big… In fact, its first weekend would be better than Star Trek but lower than Wolverine.
1.) Angels & Demons – $78mil
2.) Star Trek – $42.5 mil
3.) Wolverine – $12 mil
Next weekend?
1) Angels and Demons: $54.3M- not too much buzz, but plenty will still come out
2) ST: $38.5M- huge WOM, not a lot of competition
3) Wolverine: $10.3M- will this thing still beat X1?
did star trek break the dark knight's record for the opeining weekend ??
@ddurden33: not even, the record it DID break was in reviews, it holds 91% in top critics where The Dark Knight is at 90% with top critics
@Ty:
I totally agree with you, May's awesome for films after that….not so much. Look at the suckitude that is June- Land of the Lost, The Taking of Pelham 123…I'm only looking forward to Transformers (not really, now that I think about it) and The Hangover.
"Drag Me to Hell" is coming out this month, isn't it? In "The Strangers" slot as well- hopefully it's a hit.
@ddurden33:
Nope, not even close. The Dark Knight made twice as much it's first weekend. Its first full week in theaters will likely have made more than "Star Trek" will in it's entire run. No biggie though, this is still a stellar weekend for the film; it'll have good legs and considering the tracking a week ago was around $50 million tops, this is great news.
@Athar:
Ok last comment,
"Angels and Demons" doesn't have nearly as much hype, and the book is not nearly as saturated as "The Da Vinci Code" was. Plus, the WOM of the original film was not all that great- it's really hard to find a big fan of the original film (I was, but except for my dad no one else I know likes the movie). It'll have a decent weekend, but die off after that, much like "Prince Caspian" did last year.
I'm thinking
A&D- 48 million
Star Trek- $36 million (give or take 5 million)
Wolvie- $11 million
I think "Angels and Demons" may get a slightly better critical and audience reaction than Da Vinci. However, its opening will be considerably smaller. It may not even clear $40 million. "Star Trek," meanwhile, should drop between 45-52%. It seems to be following Iron Man's trajectory, so I'd say about 48%, maybe even 45% or 46%, seeing as it opened lower (and a lower opening means better chances at a strong hold). But even at best it'll barely brush $40 million. So A&D will really have to disappoint for ST to nab #1 two weeks in a row.
I think many are underestimating A&D, the same way Star Trek was being grossly overestimated by some that it'll cross 80-90mil easily. The 72mil opening is superb for Trek (you cannot count the estimated 4mil from the Thurs shows prior to midnight), and it should have decent legs. On the other hand, A&D won't open to Wolverine type numbers, but It will easily eclipse 60mil. Tom Hanks plus the promise of a globe trotting mystery with lots more action than DaVinci will win out.
I'm hoping that the film can have about 55 million second weekend followed by about 35 the next and the 25 the following. I think it's possible. The reaction to the movie seemed to be very positive and I think it will have pretty strong legs. I also read someehwere that Trek did beat Dark Knight in the all time openning for an IMAX.
i loved star trek but i have absoloutley no interest in seeing angels and demons unless i see the trailer again and i am amused then i'll think about it.
New weekend actuals show that the movie actually did 75 instead of 72 million from friday thru sunday and 79 million total with the thursday night money. I guess thats good news. I doubt angels will do any more than 50 or 60 mill next weekend.
@ddurden33: No, but it broke The Dark Knight's record for IMAX showings. It grossed $8.5 million at IMAX theaters, while The Dark Knight just grossed $6.3.