Box-Office Wrap-Up: May. 7 – May. 9, 2010
Iron Man won, but did non 3-D superhero movies lose?
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| The budget was a hefty $200m, and the marketing outlay had to have been massive. Still, we all know it's going to bank, you can't go five feet without seeing an Audi or Burger King tie-in. One thing I don't quite get; why not have an Iron Man 3 before The Avengers? The audience likes Iron Man, but Thor and Captain America are unknown quantities at this point. Now let's ponder some facts. Iron Man 2 was the widest opening in history with 4,380 theaters. It was the second biggest May opening ever, with only Spider-Man 3 earning bragging rights. Iron Man 2 also had the fifth biggest opening of all-time, not factoring in inflation. One last (odd) piece of trivia: Alice in Wonderland actually had a better per theater average opening than Iron Man 2. So yeah, it's 3-D from here on out. Sigh. Result: $133.6 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $146.94 million was $13.34m off for a percentage error of 9.99%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $12.01 million, which is $2.91m off for a 31.98% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $6.97 million, which is $0.27m off for a 4.03% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $4.68 million, which is $0.62m off for a 11.7% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $4.15 million, which is $0.15m off for a 3.49% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.18 million, which is $0.82m off for a 20.5% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.18 million, which is $0.88m off for a 38.26% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.67 million, which is $0.43m off for a 20.48% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $3.24 million, which is $1.44m off for a 80% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $1.87 million, which is $0.37m off for a 24.67% error.
You could make the case that this summer opened $23m higher than last weekend, though the perception is that Iron Man 2 underperformed. How say you? Any surprises? Any thoughts on the film itself? Any idea how a two hour and twenty minute Robin Hood is going to fare with the masses? Here's your chance to affect history, comment away!
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IM2 didn't underperform as far as people having huge predictions for it. Yes even I thought it would be alot bigger, but I guess this tells you the charcter just isn't as popular as Spider-man, Pirates or even Transformers here in the states. No matter how well recieved the first movie was it looks like the strongest reception was among comicbook fans and crtics not the general masses. I hope it can still make to 400M domestic though and with an A cinenmascore it can very well happen right ?
IM2 didn't underperform as far as people having huge expectations for it. Yes even I thought it would be alot bigger, but I guess this tells you the character just isn't as popular as Spider-man, Pirates or even Transformers here in the states. No matter how well recieved the first movie was it looks like the strongest reception was among comicbook fans and crtics not the general masses. I hope it can still make to 400M domestic though and with an A cinenmascore it can very well happen right ?
Now, DMC estimate was $132M, SM3 estimate was $148M and TDK was at first at $155M. Interesting to see whether IM2 could rise to $136-137 million when actual grosses get reported.
And no matter what, I would never call this a disappointment. A bit underwhelming, yes, nothing more. It'll still make a ton of money, even though it won't make it to $400M. And I don't see why studio execs are immediately going to get all of their upcoming comic-book films converted into 3-D.
On a side note, nice to see Shutter Island increasing (should have seen this coming), and Avatar still isn't locked for $750M. It would have been, if only they had pushed the DVD release back 3 or more weeks. Plus, Clash, Losers and Kick-Ass are really going to face MASSIVE theater count drops next weekend.
@Laremy Legel: You are absolutely right my friend. When we live in a world where even a crappy film like Clash of the Titans can haul in over $400 million at the box office due its 3D ticket sales, I think it's safe to say all major summer films (unless we're talkin historical epic like Robin Hood) will start to pop up in three dimensions from here on out.
Iron Man 2 will be fine. It's made over $326 million worldwide in just four days. MOTHER OF GOD!!
The movie opened OS last weekend
Awesome! I'm off by .4mil! Woot! My guess was $133.2
I don't think IM2 underperformed, no one outside of the hardcore fanboys thought that it would outperform TDK, this is still a pretty solid weekend. (Plus I was only 2.2 million off, so I'm proud of myself.)
I'm pretty pleased with my 132 call. This film does have some legs and in my opinion this is a weak summer, so who knows?
Next week: Iron Man 2 – 65
Robin Hood – 57
I'd be absolutely shocked if Robin Hood made it past $50M next weekend.
Ballsy prediction for RH, but I honestly don't even see it making it to 40M. Eventhough I kinda want to check it out I don't know anyone who really wants to see it. I hope Universal isn't expecting another Gladiator because RH won't come close to having the type legs and Oscar buzz that movie had. Also audiences aren't as open to three hour historical epics like they were in 2000 especiallly in the summer( looks at the terrible performances of Troy and KOH). They do need a major hit though after GZ flopped badly.
:My Prediction:
1. IM2 – $63M
2. RH – $34M
I think Troy / Angels & Demons (same weekend last year) numbers (46-47/133) is the best RH can hope for.
Not everything needs to be put into 3D it's just going to kill the movie industry. It is just one of those "things" people really like for the time being and it will slowly fade out. As for Iron Man Vs. Alice in Wonderland. I'm sure if you calculate the inflation for 3D charges on Alice, it makes it looks even better for Iron Man because even MORE people went to see Iron Man.
Actually Alice made over $960 million, even with 3D inflation, that is abnormal for a Spring release.
Blah. I do not like 3D. Not one bit.
Yea. I guessed that IM2 would crack 160 mil. But it didnt. But you know what? I think this is still a great number for this sequel. I mean think about it. This wasn't the best weekend, you had Mothers Day and school still in session competing against it. Next weekend it will easily take the crown due to people who didnt see it this weekend. I am guessing a realtively small drop. I think this will have legs due to good WOM. Good start to the summer! And in NO means, do I think this summer is weak.
Im glad for Iron Man 2 and still think it has a chance to make 400 mil. Spider Man did.
Mother's Day didn't exactly prevent Spider Man 3 from achieving the biggest open weekend ever! Obviously it did so a year prior to The Dark Knight's release.
SM3 opened the week BEFORE mother's day.
Robin Hood will definetly fair better in the UK than US. Universal could be the next Sony (a movie could underperform in US but will be huge overseas. Case in point: 2012/Angels & Demons).
Next Week:
1.Iron Man 2- 87 m.
2.Robin Hood-40 m.
You can't be serious about IM2. You just can't.
Hi. Hello. Come on now. Back to Earth.
$87 million for Iron Man 2?
Next weekend:
1.Iron Man 2
2.Robin Hood
3.Letters to Juliet
4.A Nightmare on Elm Street
5.How to Train Your Dragon
6.Just Wright
7.Date Night
8.The Back-Up Plan
9.Furry Vengeance
10.Clash of the Titans
I don't think Iron Man underperformed the realistic expectations that should have been in place for it, but I do think it underperformed compared to what Paramount WANTED out of it. You know they wanted the record, and if it'd had been in 3D they might have gotten it. And it performed below Alice in Wonderland's opening on a PTA basis. All that adds up to…every superhero movie being in 3D from now on. Hopefully Christopher Nolan will have the balls to keep Batman 3 in 2D as I'm sure he is demanding for Inception. Regarding the film…as I said yesterday, I didn't think it was very good at all. Downey was fun and the action was cool, but the story was an absolute mess. Also as I said yesterday, the OW number really just proves that Iron Man isn't as popular as Spider-Man or Pirates, which really isn't that surprising of a statement. I called for $153 million because I thought the dry marketplace and overwhelming theatre count demanded a number that big. But I'm not surprised by the result.
Next weekend, Iron Man obviously repeats with around $65 million. Even with good word of mouth (which this apparently has, which I can't understand) openings this big mean a big drop. Even The Dark Knight fell 50%. I still say no more than $35 million for Robin Hood and I wouldn't be surprised with less. It's just not the kind of film American audiences are interested in anymore. It should bank overseas though.
I just looked at the breakdowns on BOM and holy shit, Kick-Ass got mauled. Very sad to see. Further proof (not that it was needed) that American audiences don't like edgy, uncompromising material. It's my favorite film of the year so far, and I would definitely like to see it in theatres again (I've seen it four times already), but I guess that would have to be this week, as it's sure to lose over 1,000 theatres next weekend.
Next Week
Iron Man – 78
Robin Hood – 35
This is about right for Iron Man 2. It could beat the record for largest 2nd weekend gross, but just barely.
Nope. No way it makes more than $65M next weekend.
Iron Man 2 will beat Robin Hood next weekend. Easily!
This weekend does not show it's 3D from here on out. People are going to get sick of 3D. It costs more to make and the viewers have to pay more to see and have to wear stupid glasses at the same time. Some might say "you're just an old timer, who hates technology, and that's why u don't like 3D" Well I'm a teenager and I absolutely hate 3D. Iron Man 2 will be the biggest movie this year and it will not be 3D. Toy Story 3 will be the only highlight for 3D. 1/10 people can't see 3D and 1/12 get sick from 3D. They are losing a huge audience by doing this. This does not mean 3D from here on out. 3D is a gimmick and it will be gone faster than you can say "James Cameron is overrated"
I just don't see how Iron Man 2 can make more than $60M next weekend. I'm considering the fact that The Dark Knight, which opened with $30M more and much better reviews, made $75M in its second weekend. I just don't see the logic in saying that Iron Man 2 will make $70M or $80M in its second weekend.
Deadline Hollywood is reporting that Avatar has so far sold 19.7 million DVD and Blue Ray discs woldwide. I'm estimating that means an extra $423 million dollars for the movie so far.