Box-Office Wrap-Up: May 29 – May 31, 2009
COMMENTS
Up crushes the competition, we live in Pixar's world.
It looks like an older fella (Up) is worth $18k per theater… vs. our favorite robot (WALL•E) from last year only sniffing $16k. Chuck B.'s early prediction would have been the best, but then he went back and revised it, so we can't give him the commenter crown. Sebastian was only a million off, but there were a lot of guesses out there, so a million wasn't close enough. Junjun sussed out the 3D aspect and came within a fantastic $.8m. Not shabby. I award you first commenter crown and hope you'll grace us with a call next Thursday. Now then, time for my own personal breakdown on the proceedings.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
1. Up
Yep, I was way low. Now that eight million people have seen it the word of mouth should go well for Pixar. Can it fight off the two comedies next weekend? It's gonna be close.
Result: 68.2 million (My rank: #1, $8.7m off)
A better call. It dropped a hefty 53% – so it officially looks nothing like the original (in terms of box-office profile). Junjun called a 2nd place and $26m finish, another dominant projection, but Raichu actually nailed the exact dollar and placement here. So Raichu, our first ever silver medal goes to you. And thus ends the awards portion of our recap.
Result: 25.5 million (My rank: #2, $3.2m off)
I overrated it, and Brad was right about it not being The Strangers. He was nice enough to text me with a Nikki Finke TOLDJA this morning. I've heard nothing but good things here, but the title was probably too hardcore given the actual tone (slight comedic?) of the film. It probably dropped that extra $5m with the "Hell" aspect.
Result: 16.6 million (My rank: #3, $4.8m off)
Right now, based upon projections, this was the third highest box office weekend of 2009. Sadly, even that can't fix Terminator Salvation. It dropped another 62%.
Result: 16.1 million (My rank: #4, $3.9m off)
5. Star Trek
Say what you want about me underrating Up or overrating Drag Me to Hell… no one does that bottom portion like The Oracle. Bustray, Junjun, and Gophers! were close, but I was exact. Exact is nice.
Result: 12.8 million (My rank: #5, $0m off)
It lost 63 theaters this weekend. Which means that 63 theaters ran it for two weekends and then gave up, even though the studio/theater split doesn't really get lucrative for the theaters until weekends three through five.
Result: 11.2 million (My rank: #6, $1.1m off)
7. Dance Flick
Now I can say "TOLDJA" to the makers of Dance Flick. No more, we implore you.
Result: 4.9 million (My rank: #7, $0.1m off)
Does Wolverine have a shot at the yearly top ten (domestic)? It's third now. Nah, there's got to be seven films left that can top $180m, right?
Result: 3.9 million (My rank: #8, $0.6m off)
At the very least I went ten for ten on the slots. I didn't overrate DMtH so much that I had it second. A small victory, but a victory nonetheless.
Result: 1.9 million (My rank: #9, $0.3m off)
I did overrate it. But, as I figured, the bottom slot was so weak that an extremely low gainer was going to break through. That breakthrough came from Bloom, and I couldn't be more pleased with the result. It's still on an expansion schedule, so maybe it can creep up the charts and give a nod to a fella (Rian Johnson) who actually tries to do things a little differently.
Result: 0.652 million (My rank: #10, $0.848m off)
Any early calls for next weekend? Why are they releasing two comedies against each other? On the other hand, with one being R and the other PG-13, will they hurt each other at all? And does anyone have My Life in Ruins hitting double digits? Because I sure don't. See you Thursday.
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whats with the bashing of dance flick?
its alot better then recent spoof movies and in 1 week and 2 days already made more domesticaly then disaster movie and is at 17 mil+ on a 25mil budget so it will turn a profit after overseas markets are added in.
i am really dissapointed with Drag Me To Hell's 16 mill weekend..i expected it to crack the 20 mill mark for sure even going up about 5 mill, to 25+..Guess all the buzz and the promotion couldn't do anything more..Pixar has to be the happiest studio on earth..As for My Life In Ruins,here in Greece it is expected to be a really huge summer hit(all the cinemas showing it are sold out and that doesn't happen very often),but what did you expect right??I think it will do about 9 mill O.W, with 1,100 theaters opposite The Hangover that's what you get..But it will be very successfull internationally..
Next week… I call 35M for LotL and 26M for Hangover. Don't think Up will have a problem fighting off both of them. I'm calling for 38-40M second weekend.
I've got Land of the Lost making 50 million, Up following with 40 million, then The Hangover at 35 million, then Night at the Museum at 15 million, then Drag Me to Hell at 12 million (I expect the word of mouth on this one to be pretty good
I think the "R" rating will drop Hangover down a little next week, but I also wonder how many tickets sold for Land of the Lost, or other movies, will just be underaged children trying to sneak into Hangover…I think it will be hilarious, as will Land of the Lost.
@jeremy wein: I don't think Dance Flick pushes the medium forward. Commercially successful? Perhaps. Artistically viable? No way. And that's coming from a guy who likes Naked Gun, Spaceballs, and Monty Python.
I'm good with slapstick humor… just not copy/paste add fecal matter humor.
Damn. I guess that extra $4 dollars extra for every 3D ticket really counts when over 4.5 million people go to see your movie.. I was over $10 million off.
I'm expecting a Nemo drop for UP next weekend, maybe around 36%. Land of the Lost might steal a little bit of its audience, but it's still the only real kids movie in wide release. Land of the Lost will be the teen choice, but the fact that Drag Me To Hell has been garnering such good reactions might put it in a position where it has to fight for that audience. The Hangover is the choice for people who are looking for a smarter comedy. Early predictions-
1. Up- $43.6 million
2. Land of the Lost- $34.2
3. The Hangover- $26.2
Hmm..I'm interested in the final nos. tomorrow. Drove past the AMC30 megaplex here in my area and the parking lot was hella full. Here's hoping Disney was being conservative and UP inches up (no pun intended) some more to 69mil, and maybe 70mil. Right now, I think Up is the odds on favorite to repeat at no.1 next weekend. The PG13 land of the lost and PG13 drag me to hell might end up as the two films going at it for the same audience (teen boys going to the horror, maybe teen girls to Will Ferrell).
UP pretty much followed the same trajectory of Finding Nemo: A solid start on Friday, a nice jump on Sat, and a modest drop on Sun. Word of mouth has been foolproof thus far this early in the Summer as proven by Star Trek, so I think UP is going to chart the same course. Drag me to Hell was awesome as well, here's hoping it catches the same wind in it's sails that Trek got and that UP will most assuredly get.
Too Early Predictions:
Up – 37.6
Land of the Lost – 30.1
The Hangover – 22.3
Drag me to Hell – 9.1
I think "The Hangover" could do well ($20-30 million) for an R-rated comedy, while "Land of the Lost" may actually underperform for a Will Ferrell movie (also $20-25 million). "Up" may just take the cake again.
I just got back from seeing Drag me to Hell. Whoa! I won?!? Do I get a prognosticator badge or something? I guess I'll go celebrate by rounding up a few friends of mine and see UP again. Hope to do just as well with next weekends predictions.
On a side note, this was just an awesome movie weekend with 2 great films. Hopefully there's more of this the rest of the summer.
Any idea what the Up numbers are when broken down into 2D:3D?
3d reportedly made up 36mil of the total gross (32 mil in 2d). It seems people have no problem shelling out the$2-$4 surcharge for a 3D film, especially if the movie happens to be great. 3D showtimes were very popular according to a friend of mine who worked the ticket booth all weekend at a local megaplex, and were sold out for most of the weekend. Most people asked for the 3D show, and when they were sold out, had to "settle" for the 2D, which didn't really detract from the whole experience imho, since I saw UP in both formats. The story and the characters were the show, not the 3D.
Extremely happy for UP! If it mimics Finding Nemo's pattern to a good degree, 250mil is definitely the floor for this one and could make a serious run at 300mil. It has 1500 3D theaters for pretty much a full month before Ice Age 3, and with the word of mouth it's getting, I'm betting it will be Pixars 2nd highest domestic earner ever. Of course, Toy Story 3 comes next year and will obliterate not only existing Pixar B.O. records, but animated film records as well.
Hoping drag me to hell has a long run too.
so up had a 68 million opening weekend which is pretty good. but if you think about it if people went to see it in 3D they gave $4 more for the ticket. which is around 45% of another ticket. so if you think about it Wall-E didn't open in 3D which means it probably had more people opening weekend than Up did. I also think $4 for the glasses is ridiculous. The 3D is really not that great.
I'm proud with my guess for Up ($67 million versus $68.2 million) Though sad to see Drag Me To Hell couldn't even hit $20 million oh well both are great and should have solid legs going for it. As for next week
Up $43.6 million
The Hangover $29.1 million
Land Of The Lost $26.7 million
NATM 2 $13.6 million
DMTH $10.3 million
The 3D glasses are not meant for you or me Ryan, it's for the kids and they love it.
next week:
1. Up $45 Million (yep)
2. The Hangover $21 Million
3. Land of the Lost $16 Million (total flop, i haven't heard any sort of excitement for this)
4. Drag Me To Hell $13 Million (with decent word of mouth and a quick sink of NatM, this should happen)
5. Night at the Museum $12 Million
6. Terminator Salvation $9 Million
7. Star Trek $8.5 Million
8. Angels & Demons $6 Million
everything else is unpredictable… how many theaters is Away We Go opening in?
I just thought… what if DMtH pulls Taken and lose 17% next weekend?
@Ryan: yeah, but one thing to keep in mind is Wall-E opened in more theaters though than UP.
Great for Up! A splending film through and through. I will definitely see it again before it runs it's course in theaters.
Counting the money Up will make today (Mon, 6/1), it will make more in it's first 4 days than Night at the Museum 2 did, which is all the more remarkable since the latter opened on a 4-day holiday weekend. I don't think anybody predicted that. A quality film really goes a long way as proven by Star Trek and now Up.
@JAB: Away We Go opens in 4 theatres next weekend, so while I would not be surprised if it pull a 20- 30 thousand per theatre average, chances are it won't be in the top 10 for at least a month and that depends entirely on word of mouth.
Terminator apparently actually outgrossed Drag Me to Hell…ouch
Up is showing similar drops to Finding Nemo: Up's Sunday to Monday drop with 69%, compared to Finding Nemo's 68.5% drop. Then, Finding Nemo increased 3.4% from Monday to Tuesday, much like Up went up 2.1%. Nemo grossed $46 million in its second weekend, so the numbers for Up will probably be in the same neighborhood.