Box-Office Wrap-Up: May 28 – May 30, 2010
Shrek Forever After takes the top spot in a shocker!
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| How many people had Shrek Forever After winning the weekend? That would be zero, at least amongst our predictors. So I don't feel too foolish, I was in good company. As for Shrek Forever After, the budget was $165m, and it stands around $160m in worldwide cume. If it can stay strong $200m in domestic is a given, and the franchise is strong overseas, with the last two films earning more internationally. Essentially, a nice comeback out of Shrek Forever After. If it beats Marmaduke next weekend it's going to take Karate Kid to knock it off … but that will be $50m later. Result: $43.3 million My rank: I picked it to finish #3 and my prediction of $39.74 million was $3.56m off for a percentage error of 8.22%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #1 with $62 million, which is $29.9m off for a 93.15% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $51.04 million, which is $20.94m off for a 69.57% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $12.77 million, which is $3.23m off for a 20.19% error.
Robin Hood has done well internationally to crank that cume up to $237m. Still, not enough.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $10.3 million and I was exactly right!
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.41 million, which is $0.51m off for a 8.64% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $1.68 million, which is $0.52m off for a 23.64% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $1.44 million, which is $0.26m off for a 15.29% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $2.42 million, which is $1.02m off for a 72.86% error.
My rank: Not Ranked
How say you? I'd say I'm about a seven on the 1-10 shocked scale re: Shrek Forever After. I really thought the Sex and the City franchise was a growth industry. Does this mean we've seen the end of the girls? The budget was only $100m, so they aren't completely doomed just yet, are they?
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Yeahh… a real shocker for the ogres to win. But I'm still guessing that there's still a chance that Sex and the City 2 will grab the top stop next week… A really weak week.
SATC2 is going to crash and burn next week and no friggin' way Shrek drops below it.
Hilarious that you think SATC has a chance at taking back the top spot when it lost out to Shrek's second weekend in its first by 11 million. Sex won't make 100 million domestic. A real disappointment for WB, even though foreign markets will probably save it.
I have a bad feeling about Marmaduke. It looks like it could fall into that category in which it's so awful that parents won't even take their kids to see it, heh. Killers has two drawing leads that should give it a decent opening, Splice is a big wildcard, and Greek will not find an audience. Another weak frame.
WOW! what a terrible weekend for the openers. I never thought Shrek 4 would be number 1 this weekend, but I guess moviegoers thought there was nothing else worth seeing. Both POP and Satc 2 are massive dissapointments, but I think SATC 2 is the bigger dissapointment because it had big online ticket sales and expectations were really high for this flick. May has just been a major bust for all movies at the boxoffice.
Well, SATC2 will probably do pretty well overseas, but I'm not surprised it shrank. Romantic comedies (which maybe isn't SATC's exact genre, but it's close enough: aimed at girls and funny) have by far the worst record for expanding on their sequels. Same goes for comedies. Sequel expansion normally only happens with well-received blockbusters or pre-established brands (like Twilight or Harry Potter), and sometimes even not then. It took Harry Potter til movie 4 to start expanding, and Iron Man 2 might not even reach its predecessor domestically.
I am REALLY happy for Shrek! It was a great way to end the movie and will memorial day still coming it will make at least 10 mil more. 250 is not out of its reach! yay!
As for SATC- not a total bomb. The Thrus. opening hurt it a lot. But it will have no trouble reaching 100 mil. I mean 46 mil in 4 days and still a big day tomorrow. Not a total bomb.
As for POP- I knew this was not going to do well. People had NO interest in seeing this. But Treasure Island did open around 35 mil in 2004 and had legs. Maybe it will hold. I don't think 100 mil is out of its reach and it will do fine overseas.
Iron Man 2 will surpass the original no doubt.
Just one word for this weekend box office (even for the whole summer), "Eh???????"…..
What a disappointing summer…..
Inception, Toy Story 3, and Eclipse would rule this summer then…..
Can't wait for summer 2011
Regards from Indonesia.
This summer is a big letdown, so far!
Only Toy Story 3 can deliver now, I think.
Oh, and Eclipse… Those are the only good cards left, boxoffice wise. My guess is that no other movie has a chance of topping $200 million anymore. Which is awful!
(I *HOPE* Inception will surprise everyone, but let's face, there's a chance it will bomb too)
That's just sad. I didn't care for either SATC2 or PoP, but I wish they did better just for the sake of it. I can't wait for June 18. This weekend, the only bright spot was Shrek dropping 39% (it'll make $250+ easily imo) and decent drops for IM2, RH, LTJ (which had a $30M budget BTW), DN (which is giving me a headache with its struggle making it to $100M) and HTTYD & Alice having their PTAs raised significantly.
Next weekend I only hope Splice and Get Him to the Greek pleasantly surprise. Don't care for any other movie, either an opener or a holdover.
Why do you wish SATC2 and PoP did better? I for one am so glad that terrible movies are failing at the box office. One assumes that all people expect from a blockbuster is a gazillion special effects and a dumbed down story. The other expects women to lap up anything thrown at them. Hopefully Hollywood will sit up and take notice that people want quality movies.
As I said, just for the sake of overall B.O. being better.
I sometimes wonder what studios covet more: the weekend crown and being able to declare that in their TV spots the whole next week, or the early buzz of a Wednesday or Thursday opening. I can't remember the numbers, but the Thursday opening likely lost the weekend last year for Terminator, and it definitely did for Sex and the City this year. I guess we'll know for sure if WB shifts The Hangover 2 to Friday next year. It's worth noting though that Shrek didn't necessarily perform above expectations. The other two films just performed way below expectations allowing Shrek to take the top spot despite a standard drop for the genre.
Next weekend, Shrek goes for the threepeat against Marmaduke. Killers could make some noise, Splice might hit $10-15 million, and I'm afraid Get Him to the Greek will bomb. Rock comedies don't do well unfortunately. I plan on seeing it though; it looks funny and I loved Sarah Marshall. And there's no way Shrek pulls off a four-peat, both The A-Team and The Karate Kid will beat it simply due to its drops (it should be in the low $20s at best by then).
Considering Shrek the Third dropped 56% and the fourth movie's ratings were hardly better, I'd say it was def. above expectations.
People didn't think Shrek would have a standard drop for the genre, they thought it would have sequelitis.
The Hangover 2 will be screwed no matter when Warner Bros. releases it because it is sandwiched between at least 3 tentpole sequels (Pirates 4, Kung Fu Panda 2 and Cars 2).
Cars 2 is coming out a month after H2 and won't be a problem at all. The first movie is beloved and if the second meets the expectations with critics and audiences, it'll be a hit.
Okay, well then it performed according to my expectations. I don't remember what all everyone else predicted for it, but I predicted $42 million.
Good job. Shrek is doing very well overseas so far.
Cars 2 may not be a problem, but Pirates 4 definetly will be a huge fly in The Hangover 2's ointment! Johnny Depp is a bigger box office draw than all 4 Hangover boys combined.
With Pirates 4 and Kung Fu Panda cleaning up the Memorial family market (with the former apealling to broader demos) The Hangover 2 is in "no man's land" and will most likely underperform as a result.
Next weekend:
1.Shrek Forever After-$33.2 (-23%)
2.Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time-$19.7* (-35%)
3.Sex and the City 2-$12.9 (-60%)
4.Marmaduke-$10.8 (N/A)
5.Killers-$9.2 (N/A)
6.Get Him to the Greek-$8.9 (N/A)
7.Splice-$8.8 (N/A)
8.Robin Hood-$8 (-22%)
9.Iron Man 2-$7.9 (-51%)
10.Letters to Juliet-$5 (-15%)
1) Killers will be a huger hit than that. I expect at least 20 mil. People will love this movie. Ashton Kuther is a ladies man and people dig these movies.If Katherine Heigal's other R RATED movie made 27 mil surely this PG13 rated movie that attracts both men and ladies can draw more audiences.
2.) Too low on Marmaduke- at least 17 mil. Kids who haven't seen Shrek will love this.
3.) I hope your right about Shrek. Would love to see it hold strong
1. Not necessarily. The Ugly Truth was extremely front-loaded and lacked in both class and quality.
2. I think everyone will classify themselves as 'too mature' for 'Marmaduke'.
3. Shrek will likely continue a strong hold.
I actually liked the Ugly Truth. And yeah, when was the last time a dog movie other than Chihuahua earn more than $15M? At least Beverly Hills had female dollars with it.
"I actually liked the Ugly Truth."
Ha, HA! Hilarious! No bigger film joke could be made than to express your liking to a movie with brainless sight gags and jokes that are over-executed so much that it hurts.
PLEASE.
Well, I guess I like to blow off some steam every once in a while. You don't need to criticize me for liking a movie that most people think is bad. Brad liked Sex and The City 2 for being bad, maybe that's why I liked The Ugly Truth too. I didn't like the Hurt Locker too much, but that doesn't mean it sucked, it was just my opinion, at least you should respect my decision. No criticism is "totally right" after all.
The problem with Killers is that people might just say "Ah, I'll wait for Knight & Day", cause they are the same movie with the latter simply being much slicker, more action-packed and on a much larger scale. At best, Killers will make Bounty Hunter numbers.
Shrek won't hold that good because of Marmaduke, Splice and Greek have every chance to do better than that, Prince won't drop 35% (it's still a blockbuster, with lukewarm WOM too) and I can't possibly fathom why you think RH will hold that good and IM will hold that bad. I've never fully understood the logic behind your predictions.
Shrek4 is starting to look like it's worldwide gross will exceed Shrek 3's, and maybe Shrek 2's. People may have spoken too soon.
Sex And The City is still a question mark until next weekend. There's a lot of that going around.
Everytime I conviced myself to see Prince Of Persia, they released another trailer that made the movie look bad. This happened three times! I finally gave up. And I was wondering what was the point of the rope swinging to spill the hot oil on the incoming soldiers was, until I decided they were copying something in the game! Not good. There is no way this movie will have strong legs.
I predicted on the low end of the conventional wisdom of $40-$45 million for Letters To Juliet. But with no good Robin Hood Maid Marion storyline, this film has no real competition.
How many theaters will MacGruber lose next week? I'll go conservative and say just under half. But it will lose lot's more screen times.
Who was asking why Val Kilmer participated in MacGruber? According to the Detroit News, he owes $538,858 in unpaid federal taxes. And apparantly Forest Whitaker owes $1.27 million in state and federal taxes. Maybe that's why Forest has one yet to be released film, one in post production, three in pre-production, and three more in developement.
Yeah, these weekends have been tough to call. I haven't thrown in my two cents for these past two weekends. I won't be coming back til the June 11-13 weekend, which is when I predict the summer movie season box office gets back on track.
Honestly, there's nothing special for everyone out right now. Come on.. Marmaduke? Prince of Persia? Robin Hood? SATC2? Shrek 4? What a boring way to kick off the season. These movies scream blandness. This upcoming weekend belongs in late March. Blech.
Hopefully Karate Kid & A-Team shoot the summer up with adrenalin. They look completely promising.
I sence Toy Story 3 underperforming too.
I know everyone will start saying that Toy Story is beloved for nearly 20 years and that Toy Story 3 will set the animated record due to 20 year's worth of fanbase, but everyone said the same thing about The Simpsons Movie!
That only had a $74 million opening, which is low for a T.V adaptation with 20 year's worth of fanbase.
"I sense Toy Story 3 under-performing, too."
Slap yourself for making this ridiculous comment.
Personally, I see Toy Story 3 being huge. You can't really compare it to the Simpsons…most people had gone off the Simpsons for 5 years before the movie came out and usually TV to movie adaptations don't work well.
I was being serious! One of the reasons it will underperform is due to the female demos waiting for Eclipse.
One of the reasons Disney's A Christmas Carol underperformed was due to the female demos waiting for New Moon. That plus the World Cup is a combination Pixar didn't want in June.
So far every sign is pointing to a big box office for Toy Story 3. Online Buzz, advance screening buzz, current sales of Toy Story 1&2 DVD's, recent Disney cash grab from releasing 1&2 in theaters in 3D ($30m), relative lack enthusiasm for other titles equals rallying around this title, 3D people will be willing to pay for, and it has been a decade since a Toy Story film so people are hungry for one.
Plus consider this. Everytime I visit a family with kids, there is a collection of DVD's for the kids to watch. I imagine every single collection has Toy Story 1&2.
I kid you guys not, a 3pm 3D matinee on 6/18 is already sold out for Toy Story 3 at my local megaplex. It's probably a group purchase, but still.
Toy Story is obviously held in much higher regard by moviegoers. People don't just dismiss it as "Oh, it's another one of those CG movies." It's the kind of movie people will be willing to take the entire family and pay the high ticket prices. Pixar and Toy Story is synonymous with quality, and I think that's what people nowadays want to be guaranteed of rather than just seeing the next big release every week.
As for this weekend. Nice hold by Shrek 4, it kinda recovered a bit. Though I'm certain DW did not expect this to gross less -or even have trouble surpassing-than the originals' $267.7mil in No. America.
I honestly don't see any of next weekends 4 new releases breaking out to north of 20mil, which should mean good holds for Shrek 4 and even Persia. Sex in the City will definitely plunge next weekend.
The weekend of 6/11 should be better for I can see A-Team and Kung-Fu Kid grossing around 30-40mil each. Then, the summer box office finally shows the fireworks everyone's been waiting for the following weekend.
The World Wup hardly registers in North America, and besides, Toy Story 3 is not releasing in many Soccer crazed European markets until after the World Cup.
Nice weekend for Shrek 4, though lets face it, it will be in for a fight just to try to match the original Shrek's domestic gross. The franchise definitely lost a huge chunk of it's audience.
This summer feels a lot like summer 2006 with the early blockbusters somewhat underperforming, and then comes Dead Man's Chest to blow up the box office. That movie fed off the love and goodwill of Curse of the Black Pearl. The B.O. is primed to erupt on 6/18 when Toy Story 3-on the back of it's universally adored predecessors and early good buzz-opens.
Laremy, out of all the movies that could beat Shrek next week, why'd you pick Marmaduke?
This movie will bomb overseas, the only thing I'm not sure of is the domestic dollars. I don't see anyone who may "want" to watch it willingly, so I guess this movie is for the kids or for anyone who have pets. Nevertheless I expect a $10M opening.
Personally, I'd take Splice for the weekend. It's been a long time since Elm Street and I think people would want to frontload on this one before Predators arrive.
1.) Splice – $30M
2.) Shrek 4 – $26M
3.) Killers – $22M – As much as some people hate Rom-coms like these, we have to admit some couples and other people are enjoying these type of movies (like me)
4.) Get Him To The Greek – $18M – a decent opening. However it will battle Killers, Shrek and Marmaduke for the "comedy" dollars. Surely families would not watch this together.
5.) Prince of Persia – $17M – yeah, It'll hold better than Frontloaded Sex, no matter how people think this is bound. I have to agree, word-of-mouth is at least "good" around this movie.
6.) SaTC – $14M – yep, frontload central
Overall, I think next weekend will top last year, by the smallest of margins.
What was the last sci fi movie in memory that has done anywhere near that good? Shrek will probaly be in the 35 million range. Have you not seen the animation trend for the last liek 100 popular animated movies??? They only go down like 30 percent each week until the next big cartoon comes out(toy story 3). Its a lions gate movie! You think killers is going to do that good? maybe, I would give it 15-21 mill. Greek doesnt look appealing, and I like these types of movies. I think all the movies that are out right now will get a boost from next weeks movies being blah!
I just want to see Splice and I hope it does well. It's been a boring May.
While it has been a boring May for the most part, Iron Man 2 rocked. Hate that it's getting so much negative backlash (because people are constantly comparing it to its predecessor). Learn to judge the movie for its own merit — it was an extremely well-made action movie — one of the better superhero movies out there. Unfortunately people's poor word-of-mouth is unfairly affecting the film's box office. What a travesty, because the film was really awesome :(
The sequel wasn't bad at all. Maybe people rushed it earlier and then forgot to tell their friends how awesome it was. It wasn't as good as its predecessor, and maybe the audience just didn't grow.
You are in the minority. Most thought it wasn't awesome, just your average run-of-the-mill superhero movie. There was no surprise or "wow" factor and box-office certainly reflects that.
I'd agree to disagree- I've yet to talk to a person who said that "Iron Man 2" was "average". A lesser film to the first, sure, but still a ton of fun and better than most superhero movies out there.
Wait, where were me? This summer movie season blows so far? Yeah, I agree. Man these movies are so unappealing. Some of the films out there ended up being surprisingly fun to watch ("MacGruber" and "PoP" in my opinion), but everything else just seems pretty damn uninspired. "Inception", "Predators" and "Scott Pilgrim" (not to mention guilty pleasures "Eclipse", "Step Up 3D" & "The A-Team") look like the only films that have me legitimately hyped to go to the box office.
Oh, can someone get me excited for "Toy Story 3" please? I'm not feeling it, though for the record, I never get excited for a Pixar release, then I somehow am blown away by how great the film is.
let's hope Splice tops next weekend. it has pretty good reviews
Actually, Laremy I predicted Shrek. Next Week:
1. Prince of Persia- This prediction makes sense. I think that most guys were stuck seeing SATC 2 with their girlfriends or wives. This will let them see Prince of Persia this week instead.
2. Shrek- Hey never underestimate kids
3. Splice- Definetly not enough marketing for this one. Also, look at the last movie that had mutants in it ( Alien vs. Predator 2). It opened terribly. But I think this will have more of a boost. This will definitely not grab the top spot though.
4. Marmaduke- Look at Furry Veangence, the last kids movie with animals in it. Ouch! Clearly, kids will see Shrek which is the better movie
5. Killers- SATC 2 was the week for guys to go with their girls. Now it's time for girls to go with guys to Prince of Persia.
6. SATC 2- Lets face it. Pretty much all women who were interested saw it on opening week. I think Killers and PoP will bring it down this week
7. Get Him To The Greek- This is another stupid comedy that will fail to attract guys. I think PoP will have a lot more appeal than this.
8. Iron Man 2- This week will KILL it. It could have ended up in #5 without all the new movies.
9. Robin Hood- Whatever. It'll do better overseas. I liked it better than IM2 though.
10. Just Wright. I think Macsh@t will drop off this week.
It doesn't make a smallest bit of sense, actually. Is Prince going to drop 15% or what? It made $30M this weekend. Shrek made $43M and it was its second week. Now tell me how the latter drops below the former.
It does make sense. guys went to see Sex with their girlfriends this week. I'm sure most of them wanted to see PoP. This week they'll see it with their girlfriends, wives, or friends. There is nothing for them to see this week. That is why PoP will be #1.
Oh, with Marmaduke coming out Shrek is destined to lose money.
Sorry Joker, gotta call it on Thursday, not Saturday if you want credit for the prediction. Post your predictions in Thursday's Oracle articles.
Has anyone noticed that Alice in Wonderland is close to beating The Dark Knight in the all time box office list. Alice does not even deserve to be in the Top 10. It was just okay. Dark Knight was extraordinary. It does not deserve it's moneu.
Alice doesn't deserve to be in the Top 1000.
Exactly.
Batman got beat by a girl!
I can several legions of angry Batfans being really pissed off about Alice Kingsleigh beating Bruce Wayne.
Such an exciting thought
The Dark Knight needed a rerelease to cross the billion dollar mark. That's how desperate Warner Bros. were.
At least Alice in Wonderland got to the billion dollar mark the honest way. It's extrodinary for a release to coss that milestone without Oscar hype or rereleases. Especially one that came out in the Spring.
Alice deserves to beat The Dark Knight. The problem with TDK was it was too full of ideas.
You're not serious are you?
I am serious!
The Dark Knight wouldn't have crossed the billion dollar mark had the rerelease not happen.
Alice in Wonderland prooved you don't need a cast member who sadly passed away to reach a billion dollars world wide,
Yeah and alice was just more tim burton (which mean more of the same)Depp doing a horrible job at being the hatter, and a movie that was so so. Kids will see anything that is why it did good. IT was a movie that should have made around 500 million. WHo agrees with me? The dark night wasnt all about Ledger, it was a good movie. By the way many movies have been re-released over time. How do you think pictures like The Rocky Horror picture show and other have done so well over time.
If Alice in Wonderland wasn't in 3D, it would not have come close to The Dark Knight. If TDK was released in 3D, it would have passed Titanic. I'll say Alice did good for what it was(a crappy remake), but it does not deserve to be up that high. Alice also did so well because of the lack of competition. If Alice was put in the summer, battling Iron Man 2, Robin Hood, Shrek 4, etc. it would not measure too it's current height. It's not that extraordinary. It's rotten tomatoes score was 51% while TDK was 94%, CRITICS LIKE TDK MORE, TDK is in the top 10 on imdb, while Alice is not even in the top 250, so VIEWERS LIKE TDK MORE. Out of the top 10 grossing films of all time only 2 won best picture, so idk where u got the oscar hype BS, and only half of them were released in the summer, so more BS. You're incorrect.
and finally "The problem with TDK was it was too full of ideas."?
- so either you're admitting you're stupid or Alice in Wonderland is for stupid people.
3D SUCKS!!!
Some critics actually thought that The Dark Knight had flaws.
Mark Kermode of Radio 5 live for example admitted that The Dark Knight as too long and that he would have "taken out a character (Harvey Dent) and an entire setpiece". Exactly which setpiece he never said.
This is one of the most silly statements I've read on the internet.
You know that Alice in Wonderland had 3D surcharges, right?
Alice in Wonderland has already overtaken The Dark Knight thanks to the fanboys.
FANBOYS RULE!
You think that Alice in Wonderland was better than TDK?
I liked both equally.
I know some people that might think that Alice was better than Dark Knight!
I agree! And they billed Johnny Depp as being super crazy when he was barely anything like the Mad hatter in the original who actually was crazy. Depp has once again shown us he has lost the magic. Dont get me started on his horrible Willy Wonka! Oh and guy who made the predictions…go to EW site and you will see that you were much farther off on these picks!
Joker I assume you are an angry Batfan with all this hate on Alice just because it beat out a Batman movie.
That prediction about Prince of Persia dropping so little is completely wrong. If you look at the breakdown of audience the Sex & The City 2 one was 90% female, I doubt that 10% of a 32m opening are going to make or break the box office.
I can't put Get Him to the Greek above 18m (Sarah Marshall's opening) because it's a spin off, not a sequel and that means there's slightly less awareness and anticipation for it, I do hope it surprises though.
Marmaduke is in 3000+ theaters so I'll put it at about 16M.
I really don't know about Splice, it's in like 2500 theaters and I think that there is a niche of people who will see it, the positive reviews help too. I'd say it could get around 15M and do Daybreakers numbers, maybe less frontloaded.
SatC2 will drop roughly 50%, I would say it has a ceiling of 17M.
Prince of Persia I can see following the trajectory of Clash of the Titans, albeit much smaller and dropping maybe 45% to like 16M.
There's kind of every demographic covered in the market right now, but none of the movies are particularly appealing so it really remains to be seen.
Yeah next week looks horrible! I like these types of comedies, but this one does not look funny, what kids even know who marmaduke is (and what parents even care), splice is just another high concept sci fi with who cares actors (what was the last juliann moore or adrian brody blockbuster?) Look for Shrek to win again, and everything else to not drop as much. Which will save alot of them because some like Robin Hood with its 200 million budget(What the Hell Universal ! Why do you keep putting so much money in your movies?) will have a chance to earn more money. Killers….maybe better than from paris with love, but less than law abiding.
Hey, look at that, Prince of Persia took number 2 this week.
Why all the hate for Prince of Persia? It's not POTC, but then it sucks nowhere near as much as that film's over-convoluted sequels, and the audience at my local cinema seemed to appreciate it as the dumb summer blockbuster it is and had an enjoyable afternoon's entertainment. If it hadn't had the "based on a video game" tag and JG wasn't seen as more of an indie actor I think people would have given it a fairer chance. Still, it's not like Jerry Bruckheimer's gonna starve if it fails!
I had a feeling that releasing Sex and the City 2 on the Memorial holiday weekend wasn't the smartest move.
1. Kids are off from school so they pestered the paents to take them to see Shrek Forever After
2. In the world of Memorial holiday cinema business, family fims rule the roost and Sex and the City 2 had an R rating.
3. Family films apeall to as many demographics as possible. The Sex and the City movies on the other hand have very limited audiences.
4. Shrek 4 had proper 3D. After the contoversy about Warner Bros.' "3D conversion process" with Clash of the Titans, people were worried that Sex and the City 2 would get a 3D conversion process.