Box-Office Wrap-Up: May 14 – May 16, 2010
COMMENTS
Iron Man 2 repeats with ease.
Apologies for the tardiness of this week's Box-Office Wrap-Up as I am here at the Cannes Film Festival and a 7:30 screening of Outrage made it impossible to file on time. As for the numbers, I overrated Iron Man 2 while Robin Hood was about what I expected it to be. Let's break this thing down already so I can get some reviews written and get to bed…
#1 movie predicted correctly: 11 Weeks In A Row
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| Mea culpa. The closest on the board was ROb's call of $50m, but he had Iron Man 2 finishing second to Robin Hood so it was a mixed bag. The film was the biggest dropper of the weekend, so clearly the frontloading phenomenon was in full effect. In terms of the bigger picture, the film stands at $428m on that hefty $200m production budget. They are in pretty good financial shape, it was the thirteenth highest second weekend of all-time. One interesting comparison: Alice in Wonderland. That film beat Iron Man 2 in its first or second weekends, and from the March slot. Kids and 3-D, unstoppable forces. $400m domestic now seems pretty far out of reach. Any total worldwide cume calls? Result: $53 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $66.5 million was $13.5m off for a percentage error of 25.47%. | |
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2. Robin Hood
Nick's call of $37.75m was scary accurate. Most other people were too low, thinking the awful reviews would kill it. But weekend one the marketing usually holds sway, it's next weekend this one will get crushed. This also had a $200m production budget. Not good, eh?
Result: $37.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $35.7 million, which is $1.4m off for a 3.77% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $35.7 million, which is $1.4m off for a 3.77% error.
Some of y'all had this at $20m, too bullish! JM's call was the most accurate. I haven't seen a production budget here, but it had to have been small because it was a Summit film not named Twilight.
Result: $13.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $15.4 million, which is $1.7m off for a 12.41% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $15.4 million, which is $1.7m off for a 12.41% error.
4. Just Wright
My theory about the NBA playoffs hiatus helping it? It didn't happen. Live and learn. Bright side? It should pass Celtic Pride this week for 20th place on the all-time basketball movie charts.
Result: $8.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.7 million, which is $3.2m off for a 37.65% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $11.7 million, which is $3.2m off for a 37.65% error.
Eight weekends in a row in the top five, defying my prediction. Only 19 more and it catches E.T. for first!
Result: $5.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $3.73 million, which is $1.37m off for a 26.86% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $3.73 million, which is $1.37m off for a 26.86% error.
The best thing I've seen at Cannes so far is Another Year. I think Brad is with me on that one, so you can take it to the bank.
Result: $4.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $4.2 million, which is $0.5m off for a 10.64% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $4.2 million, which is $0.5m off for a 10.64% error.
7. Date Night
The worst thing I've seen is a little film called The Princess of Montpensier. It was a brutal couple of hours.
Result: $4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.3 million, which is $0.7m off for a 17.5% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $3.3 million, which is $0.7m off for a 17.5% error.
The weekend fell 21 percent. I can see the "lost summer" USA Today headlines already.
Result: $2.4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.27 million, which is $0.87m off for a 36.25% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.27 million, which is $0.87m off for a 36.25% error.
Anyone out there see Robin Hood? Want to pile on, or perhaps tell me I've got it all wrong?
Result: $2.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.32 million, which is $1.02m off for a 44.35% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $3.32 million, which is $1.02m off for a 44.35% error.
$463m worldwide, with twice as much of the box-office coming from international dollars.
Result: $1.2 million
My rank: Not Ranked
My rank: Not Ranked
That's all I've got. Let's hear your thoughts on where this weekend was loopy, what surprised you, and what French cuisine I should be trying out. Comment away!
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Never can go wrong with french pastries I suppose.
P.S I predict around $780-800 million worldwide for Iron Man 2
Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood were both solid.
Next Weekend: Shrek 4 will win with ease.
I think IM2 will finish at about $320-$340M domestic and about $700-$720M WW. Not bad for flick that cost $170M to make. As for RH yeah it did ok, but I knew it would have a solid opening weekend, but it's really the legs that will make or break this movie. With a B – Cinemascore though I'm not expecting alot, but it might still crawl to $100M domestic and thats still nothing to be happy about considering that huge budget. I mean how in the hell did it cost more than IM2 to make ?
I'm with you bro. I have no clue how Robin Hood managed to have a production budget of $200 million. The movie reeked of hollywood's trilogy-starting nature and horrible storytelling. It'll be lucky to make it to $100 mil domestic and probably reach $300 mil WW. It will surely drop at least 60% next week.
I don't know… Robin Hood is the kind of flick that has remarkably long legs overseas. Troy and Kingdom of Heaven weren't considered big hits here in the US, but the made around three times as much overseas. I think if it makes it to $100m US (which would take some impressive enough legs) then it will likely make a profit off of international ticket sales, despite the ridiculous budget.
Ha, as I previously stated before that Iron Man 2 was not that good, it's proven from the box office (both domestic and international), this film was waaaaay over-rated and one of disappointing summer movies with great anticipation (for me).
As for Robin Hood, it will stay long enough throughout the May since Shrek, sex and the city 2 and Prince of Persia aim different market…
My call is around 700 million for WW Iron Man (which is quite disappointing esp since everyone was rooting this film to be champ of the summer) and around 400 million for Robin Hood. Go Robin!
Regards from Indonesia.
Word of mouth has hurt Iron Man 2 a lot as people have said the original is a lot better. I'm think Toy Story 3 will be the champ of the summer considering the 3D factor. Robin Hood did fairly well but next weekend the drops going to be huge!
Ditto about Toy Story 3. :) It feels like people are underestimating it. Toy Story 3 is gonna be massively phenomenal, box office wise. Hopefully filmmaking wise too. ^_^
Worldwide cume is $800M, no way It could surpass Alice in Wonderland's cume, although I'm not sure if Iron Man can beat Alice's $336M domestic, it's trailing by a few million in its 10 days out.
I think Nikki Finke said that Juliet's production budget was $30M although foreign pre-sales and tax returns brought that into half, so I guess the film is a rare success for Summit.
I don't think Iron Man 2 will make much more than Iron Man 1, worldwide, anymore.
650 million is my guess. 700 million tops.
Which is a great result, of course!!
But those expecting it to be the number one movie of the year (both domestic or worldwide) must be disapointed. Who would've thought Alice in Wonderland would be that movie?
Has it grossed 1 billion already?
Man, that movie DOES NOT deserves 1 billion dollars. Sorry Burton, but… No. It doesn't.
Unless Tron Legacy or Deathly Hallows part 1 does an Avatar.
I'm cheering for "Robin Hood" because Crowe needs a hit in the worst way and I don't want him to fade into obscurity (i.e. Kevin Costner, Val Kilmer). I think "Robin Hood" will have decent legs and make enough overseas to be considered a success. I thought the movie was actually pretty decent… much better than the reviews led me to believe.
I'm still thinking his November release from Paul Haggis will be the film to truly re-establish him as a star and one of the best actors in the world.
Sheesh, these constant unexpected weekend results are getting annoying. Hmm.. It's getting harder to predict lately.
As for this upcoming Shrek of a weekend, I'm gonna go ahead and deal it a $80+ million opening, but under $100 million. However, as surprising as these weekends have been going lately, I could see it either disappointing with under $70 mill, or performing extremely well with over $110 million. Tough to call, huh? Ugh.
As for MadGruber, I'm gonna call a $20+ million opening (slightly under $25 mill though) but then again, I can also see it bombing by barely hitting $15 million. We'll see!
Have a relaxing week everyone! No stress, be blessed.
:)
Iron Man 2 is going to have to suddenly grow great legs if it wants to outgrossthe unadjusted total of Iron Man 1. WW won't be any more than 650m too.
Wow, you know Paramount has got to be disappointed in Iron Man. They'd never say it of course, and it will still be profitable, but $400 million domestic seemed a given and now it almost certainly won't get there. Everyone get ready for Thor, Captain America, and The Avengers all in 3D, cause that's what's coming. I'm not endorsing it; anyone who's seen my comments on it knows I absolutely hate 3D, but I'm just being realistic. Nice to see Robin Hood open at the upper end of its expectations. The reported budget has ranged from $130 million to $230 million, but the upper end of that range likely includes the marketing, so I wouldn't expect it to need $600-700 million cumulative to be profitable (using the 2-3 times the budget rule), but I'd say it would definitely need $400-500 million. And $400 million is likely the ceiling, with probably right around $100 million coming from the U.S. So I doubt we'll get the sequel the ending promises. Pity, because even though the film was definitely sloppy in places I thought it was good popcorn entertainment overall and certainly better than Iron Man. And I certainly wouldn't use the term "awful" to describe its reviews. Last I saw it was at a 45% on RT. I'd call that mixed or slightly negative, but not awful.
Next weekend Shrek will win of course (and MacGruber will likely make around $25 million and maybe challenge Iron Man for second), but the numbers for Shrek are a huge question. This one doesn't seem nearly as advertised as the last two, and everyone apparently hated the last one. Still the last one opened to $121 million in 2007. Add 3D and inflation and you're flirting with $150 million with the same audience numbers. That means for it to open to less than $100 million its audience would have to depreciate around 30% from the last film. That's possible I guess, but I can't see it dropping off much more than that. I'll have to mull it over during the week (and see what other thoughts are out there, but right now I'm thinking it lands right around $100 million.
Actually the Rotten Tomato community, who sees a relatively large number of movies, gives Robin Hood a 65% thumbs up rating. It's members just don't have websites or media outlets to spread everyone's opinion. Regardless, Robin Hood's scores should be judged against similar films.
Doing this for chick flicks we find: When In Rome 16% RT score 45% RT community $32.6 million The Last Song 20% RT score 52% RT community $61+ million Leap Year 21% RT score 50% RT community $25.8 million Dear John 29% RT score 51% RT community $80 million Letters to Juiet 45% RT score 64% RT community $36? million
I think Rotten Tomatoes next score tab should break down the critical and RT community scores by gender to give a better gauge of how these films compare to one another among their core audiences.
@Laremy
I tried to get the columns to line up for the above stats but no luck. Perhaps you might consider a preview button. Thanks.
I agree that IM2 not grossing 400M domestic is sort of dissapoiting because it had alot going for it,but if it was in 3D then obvously it would have been alot bigger, but I'm glad they didn't convert it because it would have looked like complete crap.
If Iron Man 2 were 3-D, it would shoot up 1 Billion worldwide, and take the number 1 spot against Alice. To think about it, Alice actually only grossed between $225-$275M if it was in 2D.
MacGruber is 100% fresh in RT, maybe it could open at $25M after a wonderful season finale.
MacGrueber will only make money in America.
Nobody outside of the US knows what Saturday Night Live is. It's like Brits asking Americans if they know who Ant & Dec are.
MacGrueber seems to be one of those movies where you had to have seen it's source material (The Saturday Night Live sketch of the same name) to understand the plot.
I think everyone is being a little too harsh to IRON MAN 2. Sure it could have been bigger, but 212 in ten days is not bad for this film. Sure it could of been bigger. But it is a sucess no matter what. It will surely surpass its first one and 350 is not a big leap. Reminder that kids are still at school and college kids… this one will hold better next weekend and the weeks after as kids are out of school. This weekend people didnt know what to see, ROBIN HOOD OR IRON MAN 2. Now people are going to give RH a bad WOM resulting in a good WOM for IM2. It could of been bigger… but is no means a flop. It will have no trouble passing 330 mil domestically.
I also think you all are being to harsh on Shrek. SO what if people hated the previous one. Kids LOVED it. They don't care. With 3D, no other kids film, and due to the popular franchise it will have no trouble opening to more than 100 mil.
Macgruber looks stupid. I really don't see why they waste money making SNL movies. I mean sure it's great on TV but movies…….no. Iron MN 2 was disappointing and Robin Hood was good. Alice did not deserve all that money.
My Prediction for Shrek Forever After
Opening $135 million+
Why? 4,359 screens!
MacGrueber will be effective counterprograming though.