Box-Office Wrap-Up: May 1 – May 3, 2009
COMMENTS
Wolverine won the weekend... but it looks to be one and done for Logan.
If you consider Wolverine to be of the X-Men series then it was the second highest opening of the four films. However, it seems as though X-Men: The Last Stand did hurt the franchise as it opened below that film's $103m opening. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Week In A Row
This looks much like X-Men: The Last Stand in terms of eventual word of mouth. It's only a 37 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and the fanboys have already started lining up against it. From my perspective it wasn't all that bad. It wasn't all that good either, but it's not Ghost Rider terrible. But it looks like this one will be fortunate to crack $210m domestically as Star Trek is going to hammer it next weekend.
Result: 87.0 million (My rank: #1, $3.2m off)
Another franchise that might have overstayed its welcome: Matt McConaughey. This film opened worse than Fool's Gold and Failure to Launch, which means the audiences might have moved on. You'd have to look all the way back to 2003's How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days to find Matt M. in the lead on a film that had any legs at all.
Result: 15.3 million (My rank: #2, $3.8m off)
3. Obsessed
I thought it would plummet, but it merely tanked. Still, a 57 percent drop doesn't exactly speak well to the word of mouth factor.
Result: 12.2 million (My rank: #3, $1.5m off)
4. 17 Again
The big news out of this slot is that 17 Again might catch 13 Going on 30 in the "Body Switch" genre. Only $20m (worldwide) to go!
Result: 6.3 million (My rank: #4, $0.3m off)
Five for five, but things start breaking down after this slot. At $325m worldwide (on a budget of $175m) Monsters vs. Aliens won't make a profit until it hits DVD, due to the theater splits.
Result: 5.8 million (My rank: #5, $1.1m off)
6. The Soloist
It only dropped 42 percent, partly because adult fare opens lower… but bleeds slower. Oddly enough, this title also gained nine theaters this weekend, clearly someone wanted some counterprogramming.
Result: 5.6 million (My rank: #7, $1.2m off)
7. Earth
My problem with this title is that I respected the hell out of the original BBC series. So I have a tough time supporting a distillation.
Result: 4.18 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)
8. Fighting
A 62 percent drop, pretty standard these days. Is this Channing Tatum kid going to make it? Couldn't he step in for Matt McConaughey now that people seem to be done with him?
Result: 4.17 million (My rank: #6, $.4m off)
I should go ahead and give props to the guy who said Terra wouldn't crack the top ten. It finished 12th.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #10, $.6m off)
10. State of Play
It will top the $40m mark sometime this week, but that shot of the newspaper being made had to cost at least fifty bucks. So they aren't outta the woods yet.
Result: 3.6 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Any early Star Trek predictions? Star Trek: First Contact holds the box office record at $146m total, so whatever this one opens at we can assume it's going to be the biggest in the history of the franchise. I say $100m isn't out of reach. How about you?
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EARLY PREDICTIONS!
STAR TREK – $82.4 million.
Just a hunch. Might let it climb 10 mill or more by Friday.
Every time I make an optimistic perdiction I fail, so I'll aim low, I'm saying 94.2 million for Star Trek.
Predictions of somebody who knows sh*t about predictions: $95 million.
I've got
Star Trek-80 million
Wolverine-35 million
Next Day Air-12 million
Ghosts of Girlfriends Past-9 million
Obsessed-5 million
Can I scare everyone already? Star Trek has potential to be very bad. J.J. Adams does movies cheap, with small time actors, and seems to even farming the cost of TV commercials to E-Insurance. How good a movie it is has nothing to do with box office (see above), but just trying to lower expectations on fanboys.
Star Trek might open up to around $75 million, but that film'll have legs. Wolverine will plunge, it rocked for the first two thirds but the ending was terrible. And adults haven't had a comedy since Observe and Report, so Next Day Air will do decently
I got Star Trek at 88 million right above what Wolverine opened. Does anyone think that Wolverine would have done alot better if an early copy had not been leaked onto the internet? I think that is why Star Trek will do better. Personally, I have always been more excited about Star Trek than Wolverine
@Steve:
Be that as it may, Steve, but rottentomatoes.com has 18 reviews in for "Star Trek," and every one of them is positive. Granted, the early reviews are likely to be loaded unfairly on the positive side, but it seems like this film might actually be fairly awesome. So, while I was originally predicting a rather large opening with massive Cloverfield-like drops, I'll stick with the large opening but predict better legs.
How does $65 million opening sound for "Star Trek"? And $185 million domestic gross, at least.
@JM: You're probably right, Star Trek will not have the biggest opening but will have very long legs at the box office. Star Trek doesn't have the same amount of fans as X-men, so while this one will garner positive word of mouth, it will probably open under Wolverine's $87 million. But it has a very good shot at raking up more cash than Wolverine at the end of its run
@Bustray: I think your logic works for almost any film but Star Trek. Which is unfortunate 'cause I really want this film to do really really well. Trekkies will flood the theatres for this one opening weekend and not later.
Just look at the 2nd weekend drops for the most recent Star Trek Films.
Nemesis (2002) – 76.5%, (and that was in 2002!, which I think was a record fall at the time.
Insurrection (1998) – 62% (again in 1998 that was a huge drop)
First Contact (1996) – 17% (seems pretty good! but it's second weekend was thanksgiving weekend and that weekend every other movie in the top ten earned more than their previous wekends.)
I hope for the best, but this movie would have to be very appealing to not tank 2nd weekend. I'm guessing 70-75%. If it doesn't sink that weekend it will it's third week against Terminator 4 (ugg.)
My guess is Star Trek performs less like a Trek and more like last year's Iron Man in its second weekend. I think JJ Abrams made a film for everyone, because he's not too tied up in the mythology.
For the record, I'm not screening it until Monday; I'll have a better idea after that for Thursday's Oracle.
@Laremy: I agree with your first statement, Laremy. From everything I have heard from a few people that got to see a screening, it plays as a film that both Trekkies and casual filmgoers can enjoy. Also, the movie that opens on Star Trek's second weekend is Angels and Demons, which I don't think will offer a terrible amount of competition. A&D will probably open well, but I think Star Trek could even possibly top it that weekend.
Also, for those worried about it turning out to be cheap and crap, I heard from one of my friends, who is a Star Trek fan, that got to see the screening that it allayed all of his doubts about the movie.
Therefore, I am excited. I am not sure exactly what the opening weekend gross will be, but I am predicting at least 80 mil, and looking to the possible 90 million mark.
Didn't Star Trek have a budget of about 100-200 million, that's hardly cheap? Even by Hollywood standards.
Star Trek – 78.7 (MAX – 85.4)
Wolverine – 37.8
I really think that Star Trek could open from 77 to 85-90. I give this low number because I expect it to have strong legs and even, as some of you say, top Wolverine at the end of the summer.
As for Wolverine, the word of mouth is not good, even me, as a personal fan, didn't like it that much. I would never go to see it again. I'm dropping it almost 60%.
star trek 107
wolverine 36
who cares about anything else!
Star Trek will open around 65-72mil. I just think that it won't have that much pull outside rabid trekkies and fanboys, despite the great reviews it is getting. I just don't see the casual moviegoer and families going out in force this weekend to push it to the 80mil+ territory. The Series just does not have the mass penetration of Star Wars which draws even non-fans to theaters. Everyone is saying that the film manages to have something to offer to both trekkies and non-trekkies, which I don't doubt, but the stigma that Star Trek is Star Wars' less popular and "uncool" little brother is deeply rooted. It should have good legs though and will finish around 170-180mil.
i think it will open somewhere between 80 and 90 million and i'm sorry because i really liked except for the ending but wolverine is getting his butt kicked next week but there will probabley be some repeat viewing but not from me i'm going with everyone else on this planet to see star trek