Box-Office Wrap-Up: Mar. 5 – Mar. 7, 2010
Alice in Wonderland makes a bonkers amount of cash!
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| It rocked the March record, it mauled the Spring record, it was the second biggest PG opening ever ($5m behind Shrek the Third). Are the traditional Hollywood dumping grounds going away, or was this film just in the right place at the right time? I found the film to be very child-friendly, though I was hoping for something more adult and sinister. And 3-D? I'm definitely over it, and I don't feel it adds much here (except for about $3 per ticket). But awareness on the film was off the charts, and Disney clearly marketed it perfectly. Will it hold up? Hard to say. But $210m worldwide cume is a fantastic start. Kudos to all of you who said it was going to massive, the largest commenter call on Friday was John-PT throwing out a $100m prediction. Result: $116.3 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $63.37 million was $52.93m off for a percentage error of 45.51%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $9.78 million, which is $3.72m off for a 27.56% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $13.59 million, which is $0.29m off for a 2.18% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.74 million, which is $0.36m off for a 3.96% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $9.92 million, which is $2.22m off for a 28.83% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $8.2 million, which is $1.2m off for a 17.14% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.82 million, which is $0.72m off for a 14.12% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $4.62 million, which is $0.42m off for a 10% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.32 million, which is $0.98m off for a 29.7% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.59 million, which is $0.21m off for a 7.5% variance.
Bonus Oscar predictions: Avatar will sweep through the technical awards. The Cove for Best Doc, and Miracle Fish for Live Action Short. I've got six different picks (out of 24) than Brad, and we've bet a cool five bucks on it. Send good wishes my way, because I'm pretty sure I'm out five dollars.
Four new releases next week, so plenty to talk about next Thursday. Until then, enjoy your Oscar evening and comment away on juggernaut that was Alice in Wonderland.
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I think most people predicted that it would break the Spring/March record, but not by this much. Like I said, it came down to great marketing and the accessibility not only to the family audience but to the teen/tweenagers that love them some Depp or Burton films.
It'll drop like a rock next weekend however- I've heard nothing but mixed reviews from every person who's seen the film. It'll still be on top, since only "Green Zone" has a chance to clear $20 million in three days.
Alice was really a monster. But i think it was very frontloaded. I am predicting a 50% to 60% drop next weekend, but will still be number one again
I'll indicate drops next weekend:
1.Alice in Wonderland*-$50.2
2.Remember Me-$35.6
3.Green Zone-$22.5
4.She's Out of My League-$17.3
5.Shutter Island-$10.2
6.Our Family Wedding-$9.7
7.Brooklyn's Finest-$8.8
8.Avatar-$6.5
9.Cop Out-$4.2
10.The Crazies-$3.3
Remember Me doesn't even have 2000 theatres and there has been like no marketing for it so even in the 20 mil sounds too much. I say maybe $12
I also think Our Family Wedding will bomb and get around maybe 5-6 mil
Funny, I saw $35M for Remember Me and I never even heard of the movie. Any ads?
m1's Weekend Summary:
Alice in Wonderland was a MONSTER! People must have been looking forward to it. But I don't see any point in gaining theaters, since it has enough to begin with. Brooklyn's Finest did well, too. I was only $0.2 million off Avatar, knowing that AIW would open in its demo. Crazy Heart also did well, and the remaining President's Day weekend openers will drop out of the top 10 next weekend.
We have FOUR new releases next weekend, so there's something for everyone. Our Family Wedding, Remember Me, She's Out of My League, and Green Zone will be fun to predict. Early numbers, anyone?
Avatar's drop was almost certainly to the loss of almost all of its 3D screens. But as I said yesterday on the Friday estimates article, is this just because of a loss of the bloated ticket prices, or have people lost interest now that it's no longer in 3D? You'd have to look at attendance numbers to tell which, though actually it's probably just a combination of the two.
If the estimate on Alice holds, it's the sixth (I think) biggest weekend EVER. But honestly, I respond to that with a giant yawn, because of the 3D price inflation. I haven't done the math to back this up (though I will try to once I see the final numbers, including a breakdown of 3D vs. 2D percentage), but I'm guessing that had it been released only in 2D it would have been in the $80-90 million range…still an achievement, but far from top six all time. This leads to another point I've been considering as Avatar mauled the box office record books…box office sites like BOM should really have separate lists for 3D and traditional films, along with the combined lists. Have an actual dollars list and an adjusted for inflation list for both categories along with the current lists that lump them all together. I think that would help keep the bloated returns of 3D films in perspective.
And slightly off topic, but with the numbers this film put up, and looking down the line at some of the 3D films coming out this year, I'm pretty positive The Dark Knight's opening weekend record won't make it through the year. I know there are fanboys–and also probably people who appreciate good cinema–who want to believe that record will live forever, but I just don't seeing it holding up against some of the 3D behemoths that are coming up.
Also, I see Alice taking a 50-60% dive next weekend to land around $50 million, still easily good enough for a repeat. I think the Twi-hards drooling over Robert Pattinson could drive Remember Me well over $30 million. And will the Bourne team of Damon and Greengrass be able to break the curse on Iraq war films? Even if they do, I don't see Green Zone going much over $20 million.
Robert Pattinson makes all the Twilight fans hot and bothered, yes, but "Remember Me" is opening in less than 2000 theaters. It would take a $10,000 average for the film to open to around $20 million, which is already a stretch for a "coming of age" romantic drama, regardless of the star power. It might make around $16-18 million maybe, but I honestly don't think it'll break $20 million in three days.
You are forgetting The Last Song. It would have opened with over $10,000 PTA easily, even with Easter, but we will see how badly the wednesday release dilutes the weekend. I can't get a read on how ardent the Twi-hard's are about supporting Robert Pattinson in this project, though. A year ago I would have had more confidence in it, but Taylor Lautner seems to have stolen a lot of Robert's thunder.
Dear John already did over a $10,000 pta opening. The stars just don't look like teenagers, but they are supposed to be college aged (18-22 years old), which is a coming of age romance no matter how you slice it. The Trailer for Remember me looks o.k. It will just be a matter of fan support.
I liked Tim Burton's AIW. Screw the critics and their veiws on the climax battle sequence. Everybody I know loved it.
Secend weekend will be solid due to some people seeing it without being interupted by Depp's screaming female fans. I'm predicting huge sucess for Mia Wasikowska. She's STUNNING.
Avatar's fall does make sense, because Alice took so many of its 3D screens. Originally I thought it'd fall 50-60% this weekend; my Thursday prediction was a kinder -30%, once I saw that it wasn't actually losing that many theaters. So -43% really isn't that bad. And as for an Oscar boost… I mean, everyone's seen it already; if they're going to see it again, it's because they want to see it again, not because it's nominated for Best Picture.
Exactly what I was going to say
I'm usually an opening-weekend person, but I'm going to wait for the crowds to thin a little on this one. I'm sure I'll still have lots of company next weekend while seeing AIW. I believe Alice will be sitting firmly on top next week. Thanks, Stiggy, for your positive words on the film. I was getting concerned with all the bad reviews on RT.
I rekon the trouble critics had with Burton's AIW was that it was another adaptation of that story.
There were simmilar problems with Disney's A Christmas Carol as that was essentially another adaptation of ACC.
Critic Mark Kermode questioned the need of another adaptation of well known storie like Alice in Wonderland or A Christmas Carol. There must be more versions of A Christmas Carol than any other story on screen (including Alice).
I know it's not saying much, but Cop Out is now the highest grossing Kevin Smith movie ever. I'm a Smith fan that thought Cop Out was pretty terrible. Hopefully, the money will not make him think that's the right direction for him.
I knew that Alice in Wonderland would take the #1 spot, but $116 million?! Jesus!
Lot's of news this weekend:
Alice: @Laremy, John-PT's 100 million comment was after the box office opened; it was reporting more than a prediction.
Brooklyn's Finest: Both Alice, snd Brooklyn's Finest continued the trend of higher openings than would have been expected for 2009. This is really bad news for what it says about Mel Gibson's movie, although Overture had a very savvy, very targeted marketing campaign. It's still a big surprise.
Avatar: While the 3D logjam turned out to be not as bad as I imagined, it is bad which in turn is bad news for How to Train Your Dragon. It looks like 3D theaters will have to choose between it and Clash of the Titans.
The Blind Side: Three million dollars for TBS in second run theaters is a given, so TBS only needs a shade over four million more to beat Star Trek for 2009's seventh highest grossing film. An Oscar win for Bullock will make that a lock, if it happens. From Variety Mag:
In Australia, Warner Bros. launched its Oscar-nommed "The Blind Side"th $2.6 million at 221 screens, enough to claim the market's No. 1 spot. Launch could prove encouraging for the football-themed pic, as overseas auds typically show lukewarm reactions to the pigskin sport. Warner will release "Blind Side" in the U.K. on March 12, five days
after the Oscarcast.
Regarding the Clash of the Titans vs. How To Train Your Dragon deul – Almost all theaters equipped with 3D projectors have at least two 3D auditoriums, so most theaters most likely won't have to choose.
…and yet when I go online to check showtimes, I see very few theaters, per city, showing both Alice, and Avatar. Do you think they just gave them all to Alice? I was also wondering about theater contractual obligations. Usually a theater has to show a film a minimum of two weeks. I wonder if they have to keep it in 3D if they started it out on 3D. Maybe someone who works at a theater would know.
No, both the theatres in my town (including one that has two 3D capable projectors, the theatre itself has all digital projectors) switched out for 2D prints of Avatar this week. Theatres that have the capability…say, a theatre with four or five 3D capable projectors…would obviously keep the 3D version if they had the option because of the higher ticket prices. But there are still too many theatres with only one or two 3D projectors for studios to include contractual obligations for 3D. And if you look at BOM's per theatre numbers and 3D percentage numbers, and if I did my math right, you'd have to get up to five or six prints of Alice in 3D for each print to be making the same as one 3D print of Avatar, so it just makes good business sense for theatres to give all their 3D screens to Alice.
I wasn't entirely clear in my wording…Alice would be outgrossing Avatar on a per-screen basis until you got to a five or six screen to one screen ratio. But then you're getting to one show an hour all day levels, which is probably oversaturation…and then it gets into business and economic theory, for which I'm not qualified to give anything more than a cursory analysis. Basic point being that Alice outgrossed Avatar so significantly that theatres were justified in giving it all their 3D screens.
I wasn't sure if Overture's marketing of the rated R movie, Brooklyn's Finest, to ethnic urban audiences was going to work, but it did. According to studio research, 60% of the crowd was African American with a total of 86% being non-Caucasian. 52% was female and 60% was over 30. Training Day probably gave this movie some credibility.
@ The Checkspot
Your long term support, and predictons for Shutter Island has been justified, and then some. Congratulations.
Last Song doesn't stand a chance anymore, now that Clash of the Titans opens on the same weekend.
Early predicts for next weekend:
1. Alice – $55 million
2. Green Zone – $27 million. An R-rating and minimilast marketing will hurt it, but this is Matt Damon reuniting with Bourne Ultimatum director Paul Greengrass.
3. She's Out Of My League – $21 million. Depending on the theater count, it could go bigger than I Love You Man's $17 million last March. Word of mouth from early screenings has been solid, so I'm calling for $7k+ per screen.
4. Remember Me – $17 million. It's got Robert Pattinson, so that will slightly help…. but not by a whole lot.
5. Shutter Island – $8.5 million
If we have learnt anything from the result from Alice it is that females conquer the multiplexes during Spring.
Open weekend for Spring release
300 = $70.8 million (60% male)
Fast & Furious = $70.9 million (57% male)
Alice in Wonderland = $116.1 million (55% female)
It seems that in order to make a big hit during Spring, you need female appeal and a historical background.