Box-Office Wrap-Up: Mar. 27 – Mar. 29, 2009
COMMENTS
Monsters vs. Aliens wins the third biggest weekend of 2009.
In June 2008 Kung Fu Panda was released and went on to clear $632 million. After a November 2008 release Madagascar 2 cleared $586 million. And now Monsters vs. Aliens opened in the ballpark of both, meaning it will have to really falter to make less than $500 million. So I ask you: Is Dreamworks the new king of animation? Hard to say it's not the animated box-office king… right?
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
It crushed my prediction. Commenter Chuck Bartowski (from the hit television show) nailed it. I think Brad should hire him after I turn in my notice.
Result: 58.2 million (My rank: #1, $11m off)
Only Friday the 13th opened better on the horror front this year. Now, if they could just make one that had broad based appeal…
Result: 23.0 million (My rank: #2, $7.7m off)
3. Knowing
Only three films fell 50% this weekend, and Knowing wasn't one of them. This means that Knowing had far better word-of-mouth than Watchmen. That's what they get for tricking people into seeing it opening weekend I suppose.
Result: 14.7 million (My rank: #3, $3.1m off)
Overall, It was the third strongest weekend at the box-office of 2009. And with the easy summer months coming up I think a ten-weekend streak isn't unthinkable.
Result: 12.6 million (My rank: #5, $3.4m off)
5. Duplicity
No production budget was released, but it definitely looked quasi-expensive. I like Gilroy as a writer but he fell into the trap of toying with the audience here.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Hollywood-Elsewhere reports an unconfirmed $80 million budget.
Result: 7.5 million (My rank: #7, $0.5m off)
This one has sank like a stone. Is children's live-action still bankable? Besides High School Musical, I mean.
Result: 5.6 million (My rank: #6, $1.6m off)
7. 12 Rounds
It didn't make any monies. The public was clearly not ready for all 12 Rounds.
Result: 5.3 million (My rank: #4, $5.2m off)
8. Watchmen
I just want to bask in the glory of nailing this. Nailed it.
Result: 2.75 million (My rank: #8, $0.05m off)
It will finish in the top 100 for the year. So that's something.
Result: 2.6 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)
My early prediction for next weekend? I like Fast and Furious to clear $45m. And I'm putting Adventureland around $10m. I don't feel the buzz, and the PR people email me every day to cover it, which means desperation is setting in for them. Never bet on a desperate film, that's my motto. See you Thursday.
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wait..why is Race To Witch Mountain's 53+ million a weak result??
Thanks for the shout-out, Laremy. I've been pretty awesome when it comes to predicting box office. Maybe I SHOULD take your job ;p
Haha. Philip, by now.. RTWM should already be passing $70+ million to have been a certified hit like Disney's past March/September releases.
As for the April 3-5 weekend, I'd say "Fast & Furious" finishes the box-office race with $45-49 million, while "Adventureland" BARELY clears $10 million, if that.
=]
Fast & Furious would be good, but i feel it might not cross the $40mil mark… maybe something around $38mil
12 rounds has the 2nd highest opening weekend of a wwe film after the marine
and if it dosnt make back its budget in the theater it will on rentals as wwe films make between 16-30 mil on rentals alone
Fast and furious will not overhaul even the $35m mark … and i bet it gets a 40% at rottentomatoes
"Race to Witch Mountain" fell not because children's live action isn't bankable, but because it was going up against "Monster vs. Aliens." Look at the statistic for Paul Blart this week: it also fell around 55%. And speaking of Paul Blart, there's another example of children's live action being bankable, other than HSM3 that you mentioned.
And I'll say your $10 million prediction for "Adventureland" is about right. I was lucky enough to see an advanced screening at my college campus last Thursday, and it was a pretty good movie, but not really that amazing. Its 1800 theater count doesn't look that promising. Expect word of mouth to be moderate at best, with a 2nd weekend drop in the high 40's%, or maybe low 50's% if audiences really don't warm up to it.
Just a side note- saw Watchmen again with my cousin who never saw it and we both enjoyed it a lot. I'm actually really glad I got to see it again; I noticed some really cool easter eggs and things that I never got the first time around.
Back to the subject- I think "Fast and Furious" will perform exactly like the last "Mummy" movie. Like exactly- $40 million opening, will barely pass $100 million when all is said and done, and I think it'll get fairly horrid reviews as well. I'll still see it just because I enjoyed the last films, plus this is basically a summer film coming out in April.
Oh and who wants to have a double feature of "Hannah Montana"/"Dragon Ball" on April 10th? Any takers?
I actually think Hannah will have higher production values than Dragonball.