Box-Office Wrap-Up: Mar. 19 – Mar. 21, 2010
COMMENTS
Alice captures a third crown, joining some lofty company!
My sources indicate this is Disney's first threepeat since Pirates of the Caribbean:
Dead Man's Chest. Burton's Alice in Wonderland has piled on $566m in worldwide cume, that's a nice number given the lofty budget. Let's break it down!
Dead Man's Chest. Burton's Alice in Wonderland has piled on $566m in worldwide cume, that's a nice number given the lofty budget. Let's break it down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 3 Weeks In A Row
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| cineJAB had the best Thursday call on the board at $35m, kudos are deserved there. Alice in Wonderland needs another $28m to pass Up on the domestic 3D charts. It should get there easily. The bad news? Falling 45 percent wasn't in my plan, and it indicates that it won't have a shot at the rarefied four-peat. It looks as though my Horton Hears a Who trendline finally caught up with me. Alice in Wonderland is now ahead of Star Trek, The Blind Side, Wolverine and 2012 on the domestic charts. Who said you couldn't make money in March? Further trivia: Alice in Wonderland needs about $140m (adjusted for inflation) more to catch Batman (1989) on the Tim Burton charts. Result: $34.5 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $45.15 million was $10.65m off for a percentage error of 30.87%. | |
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Most of us were way too low on Wimpy Kid, but clearly the parents responded. M1 had a nice early $20m call. The production budget was a downright slender $15m, meaning they'll do great if this gets even decent word of mouth.
Result: $21.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $16.25 million, which is $5.55m off for a 25.46% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $16.25 million, which is $5.55m off for a 25.46% variance.
It was about what we thought it was, JM had the nicest take at $21.6. I held out hope it would stay under $20m to really send a message. Last question: where did they spend the $40m? The after-party?
Result: $21 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $19.83 million, which is $1.17m off for a 5.57% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $19.83 million, which is $1.17m off for a 5.57% variance.
4. Repo Men
Crushed. No kudos for anyone, we all were very bullish on this title. What made the public stay away? The health care debate? Too much debt for a film about debt to succeed? Whatever the case people avoided this like the plague.
Result: $6.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $12.96 million, which is $6.86m off for a 112.46% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $12.96 million, which is $6.86m off for a 112.46% variance.
A 38.5 percent drop means people took my advice and gave it a shot in its second weekend. OR it started so low that it didn't have far to fall.
Result: $6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.47 million, which is $0.53m off for a 8.83% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $5.47 million, which is $0.53m off for a 8.83% variance.
6. Green Zone
The biggest bleed on the board, people were clearly not having anything to do with Green Zone once word got out.
Result: $5.9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.87 million, which is $0.97m off for a 16.44% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.87 million, which is $0.97m off for a 16.44% variance.
When should I do the catchphrase? Under a five percent variance?
Result: $4.7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.33 million, which is $0.63m off for a 13.4% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.33 million, which is $0.63m off for a 13.4% variance.
8. Avatar
I don't see it getting to $2.7b … unless three million people really want to see the extra ten minutes.
Result: $4 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $3.66 million, which is $0.34m off for a 8.5% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $3.66 million, which is $0.34m off for a 8.5% variance.
No production budget listed yet, so it's hard to tell how well this is doing.
Result: $3.8 million
My rank: Not Ranked
My rank: Not Ranked
10. Remember Me
Whoops. I was hoping Ghost Writer would slip into the top ten too. Perhaps Monday's actuals will save me, though I'm a million dollars short going into Sunday.
Result: $3.3 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $6.89 million, which is $3.59m off for a 108.79% variance.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $6.89 million, which is $3.59m off for a 108.79% variance.
Two decent films out next week, both getting nice reviews. We're almost to the summer films, when Hollywood starts trying again. Can't wait!
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>>it indicates that it won't have a shot at the rarefied four-peat.
wait, did it ever have that shot?
as far as numbers, Repo Men flopped terribly and The Ghost Writer seriously underperformed… those are prob the only ones that truly surprised me. BTW, I thought that when a movie's actual gross is less than half of predicted gross, it's not 110% variance, more like 0.00% variance. At least that's how I remember BOM's derby to have worked…
I think it did have that shot against Dragon and Hot Tub, at least without the 45 percent bleed.
Avatar is still on the chart?
I've seen How to Train Your Dragon and I believe it will rule the chart…
Yes, HTTYD will rule, because of the 3-D logjam. Alice will have to give up most IMAX screens and many of it's Disney Digital 3D screens as well. For the multiplexes: Avatar in 3d will move to a 2d screen or just go away, Alice 3d will go from 2 or 3 screens to only 1 screen 3d, so HTTYD will get at least 2 screens in 3d. The problems get worse the week after when Clash of the Titans opens in 3d.
Dreamworks Digital 3D screens? yes. Disney Digital 3D screens? no. Alice will still have Disney Digital 3D screens.
"Disney Digital 3D" is nothing more than a brand name that the studio puts on all their 3D films to give them a sense of exclusivity. But there's no difference in the technology whatsoever; Disney's 3D films are the same as any other 3D film and can be shown in either RealD 3D or Dolby 3D, and in some cases IMAX 3D (LIE-MAX digital 3D on a standard, large 1.85:1 screen anyway; I'm not sure if they show them in 70 mm IMAX 3D on true IMAX screens).
People avoided Repo Men because it was a horrible movie.
How to Drain your dragon will bring in some good money next week and grab the #1 spot from Alice. The marketing for the film has been good and I think it pays off next week.
I dont know if Hot Tub Time Machine has the power to take the #2 spot from Alice.
How to Train Your Dragon – $42 mil
Alice in Wonderland – $27.4 mil
Hot Tub Time Machine – $ 24.2 mil
Alice won't lose 20% with Dragon out
Yes, never underestimate animated movie. I've seen How to Train Your Dragons in 3D (It was released here in Indonesia since 20 December), all of the audiences love it. Even me (I'm 22 years old) and my friends, we all like it. It has nice story (a bit stereotype), and full action.
The scene of "flying with dragons" will make you feel like flying in 3D.
It will be slightly below Kung Fu Panda, but who knows…?
But I can really say it is one of good animation movie.
Regards from Indonesia.
I'm sorry, I mean 20 March….
Next weekend – How To Train Your Dragon – $65M
Alice -55%
Diary of a Wimpy Kid = Sequel on the way
I gave "She's Out of My League" a shot this weekend, Laremy!
Hooray for "Hunter" disappointing, though I doubt this'll stop Gerard Butler's crappy career path. Also Hooray for "Diary of a Wimpy Kid". I keep forgetting that those books are mad popular for the youngin's. They're gonna make bank of that movie now- at least 3-4x the production budget when the film ends its domestic run. It's not a huge blockbuster or anything, but it's a solid hit.
Universal would kill for a movie that could double its budget. What the hell is going on over there, btw? Two huge bombs in two weeks, not to mention that the only big hit they've had in the past year was "Fast & Furious". The only film of their entire release history for 2009-2010 to triple its production budget. What. the. F***.
How was She's Out of My League? I know someone who wants to go. Does the exclamation point mean you liked it?
The exclamation point was an attempt to get Laremy's attention, but I did like the movie. It's not amazing or anything, and it's fairly predictable, but it had some very funny lines/set pieces. If your friend is into R-rated comedies like "I Love You Man" and such, they'll probably dig it.
Yeah, it's not amazing, but it's better than those opening weekend numbers, right? I gave it a B grade.
Next weekend:
1.How to Train Your Dragon-$28.9 (N/A)
2.Alice in Wonderland-$20.2 (-41%)
3.Hot Tub Time Machine-$15.4 (N/A)
4.Diary of a Wimpy Kid-$10.9* (-50%)
5.The Bounty Hunter-$7.1 (-66%)
6.She's Out of My League-$4.2 (-30%)
7.Green Zone-$3.9 (-34%)
8.Repo Men-$3.2 (-48%)
9.Shutter Island-$3 (-36%)
10.Avatar-$2.9 (-28%)
How to Train Your Dragon will definetly take #1 next week. But Clash of the Titans will take out everything and will be defeated by Kick-Ass which will be defeated by Nightmare on Elm Street which will go out by Iron Man 2.
Next weekend:
How To Train Your Dragon- 65 million, never underestimate a dreamworks animated film,
Hot Tub Time- 25 million, might be too high,
Alice in Wonderland- 21 million
Then the only thing after next weekend that we have is The Last Song (yuck) and then we have to wait all the way until Iron Man 2
Why is "Last Song" coming out on a Wednesday, BTW?
Clash Of The Titans, I suppose…
Okay, seriously. Coming out on wednesday or thursday, it absorbs some of the fan rush, potentially creates more buzz e.g. your question for instance, potentially creates more media notice, avoids some of the weekend competition, avoids some of the consequence of an expected Easter Day drop, etc. It surprises me a bit to hear your question as I didn't read any questions about why Michael Jackson's This Is It was released on wednesday. The Last Song will signigicantly outperform This Is It.
Does Clash of the Titans, Kick Ass, Date Night and Phillip Morris come to mind?
Yes, because those movies are going to be such direct competition for the demographic expected to show up for The Last Song. You must be on the right track.
Why does any movie open on wednesday or thursday, I wonder?
Congrats to Alice on the three-peat! I saw it again this weekend and thought it was just as fun and quirky and trippy the second time around. It should get into pure profit next week if it isn't there already, and you know Disney has to be pleased with that given its $200 million budget. It will be interesting to see what the final numbers look like tomorrow, because The Bounty Hunter and Wimpy Kid could flip (unlikely though) and 4-6 are all really close. Nice to see She's Out of My League hold decently well, but it should vanish next week with Hot Tub Time Machine opening. I think all the other films from last week (and Brooklyn's Finest in its second weekend) proved that you can open low and still drop huge, which spells doom for Repo Men.
Early thoughts on next week: I think How to Train Your Dragon can hit $70 million. Monsters vs. Aliens did $58 million over the same weekend last year, and that was generally just marketed as a funny kids film, while Dragon also has the action-adventure thing going. Plus, in the post-Avatar world, it should get a bigger share of its gross from 3D than Monsters did last year. Hot Tub Time Machine could hit $30 million; this seems like an odd time of year to release a film I'm sure they'd like to be this year's The Hangover. Alice should drop more sharply (I'd say around 50%) with Dragon opening in its demographic and taking most of its 3D screens. Also, while Alice is going to outgross every film from last year (domestically) except Avatar and Transformers, it's worth noting how much the 3D added to its numbers, which only Avatar and Up had among last year's biggest money-makers. I'm guessing it would have finished somewhere in the upper $200s without 3D inflating the numbers.
But here's the thing. Animated action movies don't open all that well compared to animated comedies. There have been a ton of high profile animated action films that have bombed- "The Iron Giant", "Titan A.D.", "Clone Wars",etc. "Avatar" sold itself as a blockbuster event, not an animated family movie. "Kung Fu Panda" might be the closest example to "Dragon", but even "Panda" focused on the laughs and the pratfalls of a panda voiced by Jack Black, as opposed to the Kung Fu/action aspect of the film. Plus…what's the last Dragon movie to do any real business? "Eragon"?
Not that the movie won't be a hit or anything, but it has an uphill battle. I don't think it could beat "Monsters vs. Aliens"'s opening from last year, but that's just my hunch at the moment.
Variety Magazine says Dragon is earning $11,500-$12,500 per SCREEN, mostly in Russia. 3,000 theaters might translate to 5,000 or 5,500 screens. So maybe $57.5 – $68.7 ?
It's also worth noting that if audiences/studios didn't prefer static pricing, and we had true variable pricing for movies, Alice could have been priced at $15, even without 3D, while Repo Men might have been priced at $7. I, personally, consider the 3D upcharge a form of variable pricing, and therfor Alice earned it's entire upcharge and it's numbers aren't in any way "inflated". Especially when you consider audiences were perfectly free to see it in 2D and save a few dollars. My personal opinion.
Being a fan of the box office in general, I always want movies to do well. I love to see movies have big OW's, and I love it even more when they have great holds. Even if the movie isn't so good, it's nice to see the box office have good numbers. It's healthy for the industry, and it means people are having a good time in theaters. So it's against my policy to WISH for a movie to do badly.
HOWEVER, every once in a while there comes a movie that I truly WANT to do poorly. After the abysmal TF2, I will be very happy if TF3 is a failure. And this weekend, I am out of my mind JOYFUL that "Repo Men" only managed $6mil. I am DELIGHTED in a way that is really against my normal principal, but in this case cannot be helped and actually should not be helped. That is what a movie gets for being a total and complete ripoff of another movie. It's one thing to do a remake. It's another thing for a studio to reject funding a film, only to completely rip off the premise and make their own movie about the exact same thing. I am SO GLAD that "Repo Men" failed, and I encourage all of you to forget it ever existed and instead go see "Repo! The Genetic Opera."
Kudos to Alice, by the way. It looks like $300mil is a sure bet now.
EARLY predictions for next weekend
1) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON- 55.4 mil.
-Monsters vs. Aliens opened up at the same time. With 3d, 3d IMAX, and 2d. It will open above the 50's. I expect it a little lower than Monsters vs. Aliens due to more competition- but with good reviews this could go above the 60's.
2) HOT TUB TIME MACHINE-24.6 mil.
-It won't be no Hangover- but I expect it do fairly good since this will attract people looking for another R-Rated comedy. I may be to high on this but I see this one doing fairly well since they had a lot of marketing
3) ALICE IN WONDERLAND- 16.3 mil.
-I may be going to low but, with it losing most of its 3d theaters it will drop. But never know. Alice is a HUGE success.
4) DIARY OF A WIMPY KID- 12.4 mil.
- I expect to hold fairly well due to good WOM. But, with so much competition- it may drop lower.
5) THE BOUNTY HUNTER-10.8 mil.
-Personally I enjoyed it and hope it holds. But don't think it will have a good WOM so I expect it to drop.
Any thoughts?
I feel better now that official estimates peg Repo Men at a $2,440 PTA. This is around what I believe to be about a $2,500 minimum PTA for a serious hollywood release, and now I won't have to rethink my position.
How to train your dragon-$64- its gotten great reviews so far. And its dreamworks animation. But monsters vs. aliens opened with $59. Kung fu panda opened with $60.
Hot tub time machine-$34- looks hilarious and i smell a sleeper hit
Alice in wonderland-$24- sorry! not #1 next week! but still good money. This is the week it reaches $300.
Studios spend a lot of money to promote their movies, but it must be a bit easier when you have Miley Cyrus in a film. She's promoting her movie on Good Morning America (all week), The View, American Idol (two days), Kid's Choice Awards, etc, etc. Plus, basically everything she does is followed by millions of people on the web. I think people definitely know her movie is coming out.