"1 The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 $28.5
2 Up $27.9
3 The Hangover $26.3"

My opinion, The Hangover doesn't drop that sharply. It'll be interesting to see how The Hangover does in its third weekend against Year One.

Does Year One have enough momentum and hype to open big? Is the Wedding Crashers comparison to The Hangover still relevant, considering it took #1 for the first time in its third week when opening against weaker new releases? Those are things to consider.

1. The Hangover- $32.2
2. Up- $27.3
3. Taking of Pelham 123- $25.0
4. Imagine That- $16.1
5. Night At The Museum 2- $8.3

Word just came in that it's now NUMBER 1 too, which I also updated my predictions to be. At least give me some recognition when that updated article goes up.. geez….

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/box-office-cliffhanger-sunday-numbers-show-the-hangover-catching-up-for-no-1/

This is insane. I've had three friends calling me over the weekend and ORDERING me to go watch The Hangover. Word of mouth is mutating this movie into some kind of supermonster!

"Pelham" just does look generic, in my (and I feel other people's) eyes. Denzel, with the exception of his biggest hits "American Gangster" and "Inside Man", always opens within the $17-$24 million range. The opening is proportional to how much hype and how good the promotion is. "Gangster" and "Man" both had excellent trailers along with strong supporting casts, so they opened above and beyond the norms of the genre. "Pelham" looks nondescript, with Travolta just looking…odd and Denzel playing the same role again.
Again there is a solid fan base for this, but it'll either just barely take the top spot, or it'll come in third (if "Up" and "Hangover" have remarkable holds this weekend).

Up or Pelham will battle for the lead and Hangover will be a strong third. As for Imagine That, well, I'm sure Eddie Murphy had fun on set.

I'm not even gonna bother with Imagine That

1) Up: $28.5M (another great hold, on its way to around $275M)
2) Hangover: $25.7M (oddly enough, that's what I predicted for it this weekend!)
3) Pelham 1 2 3: $25.2M (close race, but this should still do well)
4) Imagine That: $14.1M (forceful against the family audience)
5) NATM 2: $9M (ditto)

Why did I change my numbers on here? Because I looked back on BOM's page for R-rated comedies and rarely did one crack $35-40 mil in their opening weekend. I saw The Hangover 3 times already and I'm glad it killed this weekend, with strong Wedding Crasher-like holds to come.

Looked back at Washington's box office opening weekends. Just for trivia, since Out of Time, he has alternated from a non-#1 opening film, to a #1 opening film all the way up to The Great Debaters. Not really an indication that Pelham will be #1 but it definitely have a strong shot. It's been marketed well and names like Washington and Travolta will make sure that R-rating doesn't hurt its chances. Frankly, something went horribly wrong if Up or The Hangover takes #1 next weekend instead of it.

Imagine That: not to seem so cruel to a family film but there's really absolutely no incentive to see this film at all. Bedtime Stories at least had visual effects sequences, Imagine That will have to rely on Murphy's physical antics alone. Families will no doubt go for Up or NatM2 instead of a dull-looking movie. I'd say it'll be lucky if it cracks #5 or 6.

1.Pelham=34 million (maybe)
2.UP= 30 million (won't be a surprise if it's no.1 again)
3.The Hangover=27.5 million

As for Imagine that, well, judging by the grosses of Pluto Nash and Meet Dave, 15mil tops. Eddie Murphy has been hit and miss with family oriented films as of late. "Imagine that" doesn't seem to have the same pull as his earlier Nutty Professor films. He did have one hit-sorta- in "Daddy Day Care" but that film had the market to itself for a couple of weeks. "Imagine That" is entering the fray with that 800lb beast UP and a formidable Night at the Museum 2 still in play.

Nah, I won't go far as to say that, but it can definitely beat "The Incredibles" box office total.

@Eric:

I think that "Land of the Lost" is the bigger flop. "Terminator" is a box office disappointment, for sure, but not a flop. It'll do well overseas and the DVD/TV sales for the film will be brisk for sure. "Land of the Lost" will be lucky to make $100 million worldwide, since this opening bodes for a $60 million final U.S. total at best (and that's if Word of mouth is great…which it isn't), plus Universal already said that they're going for a subdued (read: small) overseas campaign for the film, so don't expect anything higher than $50 million from other countries. Since the supposed costs of the film including marketing, prints and production costs were around $200 million, and the box office will be about half that…that's a bomb.

Imagine that=15mil tops.
Will be eaten alive by UP, and whatever is left will be picked up by Night at the Museum 2.

Up=29-33mil
The Hangover=27-31mil

I think when it's all said and done, Land of the Lost will be the bigger bomb than T:S. T:S is going to salvage some significant coin overseas given it's a sci-fi movie installment of a renowned franchise. On the other hand, US comedies don't necessarily do well overseas, and I don't think Land of the Lost DVD sales is going to come near to covering the losses. Nevertheless, both studios are definitely disappointed with the B.O. performances of their respective films.

As for next week, my early predictions:
Pelham= 27mil (just going by Man on Fire and Inside Man nos.)
Up= 28-32mil
Hangover=26-29mil

A movie is suppose to make 2.5 times its budget WORLDWIDE to be successful.

I hate NATM 2 but I wouldn't label it a flop just because you want to. The movie has done $127M+$148M = $ 275M worldwide.

It will end with $160-165M domestically and $210-215 overseas. It is pretty successful. Now granted if fox had released this in december it would have been much bigger but they gave that spot to Avatar.

Still NATM2 performance is much much better than Prince Caspian which was a total failure because that had a 200+M budget.

1. Will Ferrell's usual schtick isn't clicking with audiences anymore or just not with directors that aren't Adam McKay (Blades of Glory is an exception for me personally).

2. History has not shown Will Ferrell doing a film adaptation of an old TV show a successful venture.

3. Universal over-advertised the film to the point of annoyance. Let me be more specific: Universal over-advertised the film with incredibly crappy trailers and TV spots to the point of annoyance.

4. It was falsely labeled as a family film.

5. The Hangover just had a lot better buzz, and just simply looked like a better movie.