Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jun. 18 – Jun. 20, 2010
Toy Story 3 might have set two records, but two others were out of reach.
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| Oscar Smarty was within .3m and Dan Tralder and John Debono were both extremely close as well. I ended up high, even though many of y'all indicated my "lack of crossover" theory was off. I guess I'll throw it back to the group – if Toy Story 3 had the massive crossover appeal everyone indicated it should, why couldn't it crush Shrek the Third? Especially given the 18 percent advantage that 3-D provides? Could it be that Toy Story 3 didn't have enough child appeal? Or the economy in general? Perhaps that nearly two hour (if you include the short) running time? Maybe it's just hard to bank in June? Now, to the bright side, this was a great result for Pixar. As a few have pointed out, this should be a 4x or 5x multiplier off opening weekend, and the international take will be hefty too. Alice in Wonderland opened at $116m and made a billion in worldwide cume. Could Toy Story 3 make the same run in an off summer? Result: $109 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $128.9 million was $19.9m off for a percentage error of 18.26%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $33.4 million, which is $4.4m off for a 15.17% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $14.41 million, which is $0.71m off for a 5.18% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $5.9 million, which is $0.2m off for a 3.28% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $7.7 million, which is $2.2m off for a 40% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $4.03 million, which is $1.17m off for a 22.5% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $2.63 million, which is $2.47m off for a 48.43% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $18.36 million, which is $13.36m off for a 267.2% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.94 million, which is $0.73m off for a 27.34% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $2.3 million, which is $0.35m off for a 13.21% error.
How say you? Pleased with Pixar's first triple-digit opening? Wishing it would have knocked off Shrek the Third? Willing to call Cars 2 finishing under $80m right about now? Comment away, I look forward to your take.
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Yay I was only a million off in my toy story call. I wouldn't be shocked though if those numbers increase by about 4 or 5 million when final estimates come out.
Only $.9 off, damn I'm good, as for TS3's appeal I wouldn't count it out yet, sure it didn't get the biggest opening weekend for an animated film but with amazing WOM and the nostalgic factor, I think its safe to call it a contender for biggest animated film of all time domestically at least.
Toy Story 3 is just another film that was victim to the lastest net frenzy of 'It'll beat Dark Knight' over-estimation.
Fantastic start for it – it'll have longer legs than the average Shrek movie and Disney will be very happy once the international is added in.
I think that The Last Airbender will beat Eclipse in the July 4th weekend box-office. I know it sounds crazy but, SO MANY Teens and 20-30 year olds will see Eclipse in the first two days (Wed. and Thurs.) especially with school being finished. But, if most have seen it on the fist two days then Airbender will have a big shot at beating it on Fri.-Sun.
July 4th Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
1. The Last Airbender-75 million
2. Eclipse- 69 million
3. Toy Story 3
Eclipse on Wed and Thurs
Wed- 165 m-Breaks Dark Knight's opening record
Thurs- 93 m.
I think Eclipse will definitely attract more guys. The trailers have extreme action in them.
But with all that free time for tweens during the summer and all that disposable income that kids have now, I could see New Moon doing a lot of repeat business just for the hell of it. I'm gonna give 387 million domestic. Probably more would be realistic.
It'll be interesting to see how a summer release affects Eclipse but I'd be shocked if it went as high as $380 million by the time it closed.
New Moon was so massively frontloaded but it then dwindled very fast (the only film to shed more than $100 million from it's opening weekend to it's second if I recall correctly) and Eclipse will likely follow the same pattern.
Huge opening is expected – but maybe slightly shallower drops due to the holidays and better weekdays.
But their budgets are so modest ($35 million for film 1, $50 million for the second) that it's an enormous gravy train for Summit regardless.
Wait, wait, wait. Am I reading this correctly? You are predicting 165m on Wednesday ALONE? AND THEN 93m on Thursday? 258m before the weekend and a 327m 5-day? I mean not only would the Wednesday total break The Dark Knight's opening WEEKEND numbers by itself but, with Thursday, break it's 5-day total as well. I think you need to revisit these early predictions.
no.. anything twilight will NOT attract more guys. at least self respecting ones hahahah
I am a 14 year old guy and I'm a Twilight fan. There, I said it and I don't regret it!
It's funny my dad didn't have regrets about being an alcoholic.
I was thinking $123 million so I was off too. Who knew it would be frontloaded?
Any breakdown on how much of the first day's $41 million comes from midnight showings?
L.A.Times reports that nearly $4M was taken-in during the midnight shows.
Eclpse will not set records.
Weds – 64.4M
Thursday – 23.7M
Friday – 28.1M
Sunday – 24.2M
Saturday – 21.5M
Monday – 15.7M
4 day total: 89.5M
6 day total: 177.6M
The Last Airbender
Thursday – 8.5M
Fri – 9.5M
Sat – 10.4M
Sun – 10.3M
Monday – 7.9M
4 day total – 38.1M
**Saturday – 24.2M
Sunday – 21.5M
Monday is a holiday right?
I'd say that your Wednesday and Thursday numbers are low. It should make $70 mil+ on Wednesday with Thursday numbers of around $ 27-30 million. Your weekend numbers are spot on!
I had "Hex" at $3-5M, so I predicted a bomb. I was interested in going, but reviews scarred me into not going, and just waiting for the video.
Someone who collects the Jonah Hex comics told me he was happy with the film. He also said that Megan Fox was convincing in her role as a hooker :)
Good number for TS3, but obviously nothing AMAZING. It will still have great legs though and could still push pass $400M domestic which would be a HUGE success. As for TLA and Eclipse there is no way TLA will beat it with it opening on a Thursday now. No matter how frontloaded Eclipse will it should still clear atleast $70M for the three day weekend and I honestly don't believe the fanbase for TLA is that huge.
:My Daily Breakdown Prediction For TLA:
Thurs – $12.5M
Fri – $12.1M
Sat – $14.3M
Sun – 11.2M
4 Day – $50M
3 Day – $37.6M
Marmaduke is joining MacGruber for biggest theater drops next weekend. Same with Jonah Hex in a couple of weeks.
MacGruber has already closed – we thinking JH will be shut down as quickly?
MacGruber already closed? WOW.
Toy Story better hope it holds that 109 millon dollars gross because Transformers 2 is right on the heels of it by like .2 million. And besides Transformers opened on a Wednesday! Toy Story will repeat again next weekend, but it won't after that when Eclipse opens. Eclipse will most likely take that highest grossing Wednesday of all time. The weekend will be solid but not massive since most of the business will bleed out after 2 days and the fact that everyone has 4th of July plans. As for The Last Airbender it will tank, anything that M. Night has done lately has done terrible, so it wouldn't be to my surprise if it happened to this one too. Knight & Day will be one to watch. Maybe Cruise can bounce back.
I know. I'm praying like hell that TS3 tops that chart when the actuals come in.
Probably the most difficult weekend to predict will be the Inception/Sorcerer's Apprentice duel.
Everyone's busy talking about Eclipse and The Last Airbender. So busy that they're not even talking about Knight and Day and Grown Ups. Things don't bode well for those two movies next week.
Having sneak previews is a good sign "Knight and Day" is a good movie, so don't underestimate it yet.
Knight and Day would be a big surprise. Inspite of a Wednesday release, it will beat Grown Ups for the No.2 slot this weekend. I'd say about a $70 mil+ 5-Day period and a $45 mil+ weekend. It should have no problems in reaching $200 million Domestically. Plus the movie has great chances to make solid money internationally because of the presence of Cruise and Diaz. Some might argue that they might not be as big a draw now as they were about 5 years back. But i think this movie is looking fun and it would lure people back into the theatres and give the Industry a second-consecutive successful weekend.
I don't think any of them apart from Eclipse are going to do mega-business, but the only one of the four I ever intend watching is Knight & Day.
It looks fun.
Things don't bode well for K&D, but GU will obviously be big. It's typical AS PG-13 comedy which means it's almost guranteed to make $100M domestic. It should also open with atleast $35M or more.
I'm not 100% sure about Grownups (Groan-ups?). Normally, people might shell out some bucks for this mindless, silly comedy. But what happened to the theory that people were being more selective in this tough economy? Old dogs underperformed and I think Grownups will too. Or maybe I'm just hoping people will grow up! :)
I would agree with that except the marketing has been everywhere and when I saw the trailer in theatres with IM2 it deffentially got some huge laughs. Mostly at the part where a kid gets shot in the nuts with a rock ? Yeah! I didn't really think that kind of stuff was still funny. Atleast not since the 90's.
Yep, I heard Adam Sandler and crew were even promoting their film at the Country Music Television Awards. They are leaving no stone unturned so people will definitely know the movie is coming out.
Adam Sandler's broader comedy movies tend to have a rough ceiling in the $100 – $130 million range so I would expect similar performance for it.
However, most people I see commenting on Knight and Day here and elsewhere seem inclined to see it. I'm not sure what it's tracking will be like and the Wednesday opening will (as with every other film) eat into it's actual weekend opening but I see eventual $100 million plus domestic for this one as well.
And Cruise still plays well internationally – whereas Sandler's appeal and style is slightly more tailored to the US audience.
That 109mil estimate will go up. I think Disney is being conservative.
As for legs, TS3's will be monstrous. Pixar films always gets good word-of-mouth, but TS3's is way WAY off the charts. The love for it among critics and casual moviegoers is across the board.
Wall-E had Pixars lowest multiplier with 3.5, while Nemo had the largest with 4.7 or so. 109mil with a 3.5 multiplier is 381mil. There is NO way TS3 will have the same multiplier as Wall-E. 400mil is a definite lock domestically since I see a multiplier in the low 4.0's, and maybe I'm even being conservative with that.
Damn it, I got caught up in the hype and ended up going too high. This will be very interesting to see the actuals on, because the estimates are treating it like a slightly frontloaded sequel more than a family film. Family movies generally have their biggest day on Saturday and have great Sundays as well, but Disney is predicting a Saturday drop-off, which is more in line with the performance of a tentpole sequel. I'm hoping this jumps up to around $115 million tomorrow, but I realize that isn't likely. Furthermore, if it was slightly frontloaded as Disney predicted, I'd think that means a lower multiplier for its final domestic take. Of course maybe everyone who rushed out to see it Friday will see it again next Friday and give it a nice small drop. Depending on how the week and next weekend go, it will certainly top the Pixar and 2010 (so far) charts, and $400 million seems reasonable. The animation and Disney records might be tougher to get though. Also, 60% of its take was from 3D. While that is a majority, it's about the same as Shrek's opening weekend and well below Alice's and Dragon's 3D percentages (and nowhere near Avatar's). A large minority of people are still choosing 2D over 3D. I wonder how people will respond to it with The Last Airbender, which I'm guessing was post-converted even faster than Clash of the Titans.
Next weekend I guess we could hope for something in the low-mid $70s for Toy Story, which will be more than Grown Ups and Knight and Day put together…I'm thinking about $35 million apiece from those.
Also, just for the record, I absolutely loved Toy Story. I'll have to think it over and probably see it again to decide where I think it fits in Pixar's overall filmography, but my initial reaction has it ahead of both previous Toy Stories, with only Wall-E and Ratatouille ahead of it among Pixar films.
Wow. "Jonah Hex," what a disaster. That is shockingly low.
Are we allowed to celebrate Sex2 dropping out of the top 10?
Sure, have a cocktail!!
Shrek is still the "King of Animation". Shrek the Third still has the animated record in it's posession.
I told you guys that Shrek is hard to beat.
Buzz Lightyear and Homer Simpson learnt that the hard way.
I think Eclipse's Wednesday opening will cost it the weekend.
Sex and The City 2 opened on a Thursday and as a result burnt off weekend demand.
Check back at the end of the summer when Toy Story 3's legs catapult it past Shrek 2's animated domestic record. That imho is THE record that matters over the OW record.
Shrek 2 will still be the most attended by far.
I agree. When all is said and done, TS3 I believe will beat out Shrek 2' domestic animated record.
Attendance-wise though, attendance has been on a downright free-fall ever since the heydays of 2002-2004. So while today's movies may break grosses of yesteryear, they will not necessarily trump their predecessors in terms of attendance. Finding Nemo, Shrek 2, Spiderman1 and 2 had massive attendance figures. It is just a different moviegoing climate we live in right now.
The reason Toy Story 3 didn't open as big as Shrek 3 is not because it appeals less, but because it was not marketed as heavily. Pixar does market their films, but not in the same blitzy way that other studios do. Their trailers are often pretty weak, even. But was Pixar DOES do is rely on strong word of mouth and excellent holds. They probably get away with a much lower marketing budget than most other animated films, and yet they still get more money in the end. Toy Story 3 is a lock for Pixar's domestic record and probably a lock for $400mil as well.
I feel that Toy Story 3's opening weekend is not disappointing– $110 million is nothing to scoff at. It's the massive (for a family film, at least) Friday to Saturday drop-off that has me worrying. It only beat out Iron Man 2's Friday-Saturday drop-off by 1%. But hell, I suppose we all should have seen it coming; that's what you get when you release a sequel to a huge blockbuster 11 years later.
Next weekend, of course, is Toy Story 3's for the taking. Grown Ups is a surefire $30 mil+ opening, but Knight & Day is a bit of a wild card. I'm predicting an opening weekend of around $33 million and a five-day of around $50 million. But I wouldn't be surprised to see that number go way higher or way lower.
That was why I had earlier asked about TS3's midnight showings – if TS3 took $4 million of it's Friday $41 mill from then that indicates it's Friday actual was around $37 million.
That actually means on the Friday and Saturday it took about the same (with another £37 mill on Sat) and then it lost money of the Sunday – but all films decline on their Sundays anyway.
65mil 2nd weekend for TS3.
Jesus! 15mil Monday for Toy Story 3. Guess I shouldn't be surprised. Saw a 3d show last night at my local theaters giant auditorium and it was 90% capacity.
Word of mouth is phenomenal. 400mil is the least this will make in North America. I don't see Airbender, Eclipse, and Despicable Me cutting it's legs as much, and by that I mean dropping over 50% or more on their opening weekends.
Given the holidays are coming, I don't actually find that Monday figure too surprising.
Dark Knight cleared $20 million+ a day in it's first week as well so these figures are totally doable for a film as popular as TS3 is going to be.
As far as many peopleare concerned, any future Pixar release will unfortunatly be inferior to Toy Story 3.
The Simpsons Movie holds the record for the biggest weekend debut for a non-sequel animation I don't see Pixar's 2012 release Brave overtaking The Simpsons Movie.
It did another 15mil on Tues. 65mil minimum over the 2nd weekend is a given.
I think it could easily be hitting $250 million by next Monday night, passing the whole run of TS2.