Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 23 – Jul. 25, 2010
COMMENTS
Inception takes the crown and the crowd goes wild!
The nicest predictions of the weekend go to TS and The Check Spot, who had Inception winning and were within $1m. The tastefully named Chuck Bartowski had a great Inception dollar call … but he also had it in second place. But enough commenter recognition, let's break this thing down!
#1 movie predicted correctly: 6 Weeks In A Row
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| Clearly, this is a film people are talking about which is encouraging newcomers and second viewings. I'd call making a good film that people discuss kind of a throwback marketing plan, wouldn't you? The current methodology in Hollywood seeks to segment the audience down to the smallest possible niche allowing for zero crossover. Kudos to Christopher Nolan for switching up the game. As for the financial situation the 31 percent bleed indicates Inception might have some room to build dollars against a weak competition. It's going to need to be in the 20 percent drop range for a few weekends to really bank though. The overall picture was around $160m for the top twelve this weekend, down from last weekend, but up against the same weekend last year. Result: $43.5 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $40.8 million was $2.7m off for a percentage error of 6.21%. | |
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2. Salt
I haven't seen the production budget yet, but this will come down to how much they spent. I don't expect a great holdover next weekend, even against light competition, so they could be in trouble if they weren't efficient here.
Result: $36.5 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $39.73 million, which is $3.23m off for a 8.85% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $39.73 million, which is $3.23m off for a 8.85% error.
Three films fell in the 20 percent range, this was one of them. The $70m production budget listed here means they are set up for success.
Result: $24.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.92 million, which is $2.18m off for a 9.05% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.92 million, which is $2.18m off for a 9.05% error.
At this point Disney has to be saying "Well, at least we've got Toy Story 3 going for us."
Result: $9.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 11.98% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $8.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 11.98% error.
5. Toy Story 3
2009 only had two films open above $100m – Transformers 2 and New Moon. This year? We've already got three in with Toy Story 3, Alice in Wonderland, and Iron Man 2. So maybe things aren't so bad after all!
Result: $9 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.73 million, which is $2.27m off for a 25.22% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $6.73 million, which is $2.27m off for a 25.22% error.
Yikes. I overrated this on a massive scale. I never saw any marketing, but I assumed it was happening on the channels I wasn't watching. Clearly this assumption was incorrect. Fox remains the only major studio without a $100m movie this year domestically. Date Night came closest so far with $98 million.
Result: $8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $19.58 million, which is $11.58m off for a 144.75% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $19.58 million, which is $11.58m off for a 144.75% error.
7. Grown Ups
No international dollars yet. Will non-domestic audiences dig Sandler and company?
Result: $7.6 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $6.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 15.13% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $6.45 million, which is $1.15m off for a 15.13% error.
New Moon hit $700m worldwide, this hasn't hit $600m worldwide just yet. So unless they've still got international receipts coming in I don't see the franchise growing.
Result: $7 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.76 million, which is $1.24m off for a 17.71% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $5.76 million, which is $1.24m off for a 17.71% error.
The cost was just too high. Who thought a $150m production budget was a good idea?
Result: $4.1 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.23 million, which is $0.87m off for a 21.22% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $3.23 million, which is $0.87m off for a 21.22% error.
10. Predators
$24m / $7m / $3m and then right outta theaters. Impressive work.
Result: $2.8 million
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.94 million, which is $0.86m off for a 30.71% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $1.94 million, which is $0.86m off for a 30.71% error.
Any surprises? Something like 75 percent of us had Inception beating Salt, so this one played out as expected. Beezus got torched, which many of you had dialed in too. Time to turn it over to you, able audience, make us proud.
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Inception is a certainty to top for the next 2 weeks.
Inception could possibly keep the crown for the July 30-August 1 weekend, but on August 6, The Other Guys will be taking it to the hoop all the way and scoring big.
MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS
1. Dinner for Schmucks – $39.8 million
2. Inception – $34.5 million
3. Salt – $19.6 million
4. Despicable Me – $18.4 million
5. Charlie St Cloud – $16.5 million
6. Cats Vs Dogs 2 – $14.2 million
AUGUST 6-8
1. The Other Guys – $45.4 million
2. Step Up 3-D – $27.1 million
3. Dinner for Schmucks – $25.6 million
4. Inception – $23.2 million
5. Despicable Me – $10.5 million
Salt is dropping almost 50 percent? LOL LOL LOL
I can't see Dinner for Schmucks doing that well considering its going to play in around 2500 cinemas. My guess is is around $23 million and a third weekend at #1 for Inception.
Um, Schmucks isn't opening that high. And if it does, then The Other Guys isn't opening that high. And if it does, then Schmucks isn't holding that well against The Other Guys.
Inception is taking next weekend, and will fight Step Up for second in its fourth frame.
Yes! Inception wins again and TS3 is in the top 5 for its 6th week!!!!!
1.Inception-$34.2 (-21%)
2.Salt-$25.6 (-30%)
3.Despicable Me-$19.1 (-21%)
4.Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore-$15.2 (N/A)
5.Dinner for Schmucks-$10.9 (N/A)
6.Toy Story 3-$8.2 (-9%)
7.Charlie St. Cloud-$7.3 (N/A)
8.The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$6.9 (-28%)
9.Ramona & Beezus-$6.9 (-14%)
10.The Kids Are All Right-$6.7 (+148%)
Any thoughts for next weekend? Please see Salt, it is a good movie and, though flawed, deserves attention. SEE IT!
Having had a quick look at Adam Sandlers grosses on Box Office Mojo (and restricting myself to the performances of his other $100 million plus US grossers) it's clear that none of his films earn more internationally than they do in the US.
They typically earn anywhere from a about a third to about equal the US take – which makes GU's international appeal pretty hard to gauge. The only thing that's really clear is he primarily appeals to the US market.
I'm not sure Inception will have such shallow drops over the next few weeks, but since there isn't really anything huge on the horizon then it also could.
I believe $200+ million US is still very likely though for it, and also that TS3 can probably get a little bit past $400 million at this point as it's weekdays are still strong.
Maybe $415 million or a little less by the time it finishes up.
I also noticed now on Box Office that Eclipse still has international coming in and passed $600 million this weekend global.
It's about $100 million behind New Moon at this point. Whether it makes up the difference……..I shrug at anyway.
I get a feeling that Inception will be #1 again next weekend. It's competition will be Dinner For Schmucks, Cats & Dogs 2, and Charlie St. Cloud.
Don't undersestimate the girl fanbase of Zefron.
Nor should we underestimate the family dollar which will be in week 7 of TS3, week 4 of DM, week 3 of TSA and week-it-doesn't-make-any-difference of R&B.
Dogs and Cats may surprise and bite the competition…. (Sorry, really)
Next Weekend:
1.Inception-$30.7
2.Salt-$22.7
3.Dinner for Schmucks-$18.9
4.Despicable Me-$16.1
5.Charlie St. Cloud-$15.3
6.Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore-$9.4
7.Toy Story 3-$6.2
8.The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$5.8
9.The Kids Are All Right-$5.2
10.Ramona & Beezus-$4.3
Don't underestimate Eclipse's fanbase doing repeat viewings.
@Laremy Legel
I called the exact prediction for Inception on the Oracle on Thursday. I only had "Salt" beating it. When I saw the final numbers I felt so happy!
Hi Jesse,
Sorry for missing your call. I think seeing Salt in first on your board threw me off. Still, nice projection!
Hooray, people are starting to smarten up!
So happy for Inception, though I think the number might drop a bit when the actuals come out tomorrow. WB overestimated it by $2 million last weekend, and this number would have it doing better percentage-wise on Saturday and Sunday than last week, but I guess that's possible given that it's no longer a new release and there's less of a "have to see it Friday night" mentality. Avatar was actually taking in twice as much on Saturdays as on Fridays during January, though this won't get near that level. I saw it for the third time last night at the last show of the night; it played to a 2/3 or so full pretty large auditorium; the shows in the two smaller auditoriums in which it was playing sold out. Also SPOILER ALERT there was a collective groan when the film cuts to black at the end, leading me to believe a good deal of the audience was seeing it for the first time END SPOILER. $250 million is a definite possibility for it now; depending on the weekly hold and next week's performance it should be in the neighborhood of $190 million this time next week. And that means that international dollars could well lead it to profitability, which would be spectacular and continue to prove just what a master filmmaker Chris Nolan is.
Other thoughts: Is Angie's star starting to wane? Wanted pulled in $50 million two years ago and she wasn't even the main character (though its competition was Wall-E, not Inception). Toy Story and Despicable Me are down to the 25% drop area, which means they can still cruise for a while. $400 million is looking more and more doable for Toy Story and Despicable Me has a shot (albeit a fairly long one) to outgross Shrek 4 domestically. Who would have predicted that two months ago?
For next weekend, the main competition to an Inception three-peat would seem to be Dinner for Schmucks, but the theatre counts for it aren't great (2,500 estimated). Cats and Dogs is getting a massive rollout though (3,700 estimated) and may have more theatres than Inception. G-Force managed $31 million last year, but that was with in-your-face Disney marketing. This seems to have been much less heavily trumpeted, so hopefully Inception can hold it off; I'm thinking $25-30 million next weekend is a safe bet. Of course Cats and Dogs is in 3D, which means it's really the kind movie WB wants to make now given their new approach. You know they're hoping it beats Inception so they can call it a victory for 3D over 2D.
How on EARTH was that a spoiler alert?
Early word on Cats and Dogs is that it sucks. So we'll see.
I figured it was better safe than sorry for people who still haven't seen it.
And of course Cats and Dogs is going to suck; the trailer is painful. But that doesn't mean it won't make money unfortunately.
Most everyone I've talked to who have see Inception are saying they will probably see Salt. I've also run into two guys who didn't know it was out this weekend, who plan to see it. Angie will be fine.
I seriously believe Inception is on it's way to $300M+ domestic. I saw a 7:30 showing last night and WOW! I seriously don't know how to explain my reaction to this movie . It was more than just great and I don't think a movie has ever got my heart pumping so fast and the adrenaline going. Also Holy Shit ! the ending got a great reaction especially that final shot.
The interesting thing I remember about seeing Inception on Saturday (just while Ian's remarks remind me) is that I saw it in a smaller hall which was probably about 4/5ths full. However, what did happen at the end (which did not the first time I saw it) was that there was a fairly widespread outbreak of laughter after the final scene.
Now, I presume these were first time viewers (because second/third time viewers would be unlikely to respond that way) however, the laughter was (to my perception) not of the mocking sort – rather it was of the sort that indicated the audience were ahead of the film and knew the idea of the ending that was coming.
Anyway, it was an interesting response.
The ending is indeed controversial in a way, but honestly that;s what makes it so damn BRILLANT. I don't want ot go into spoilers, but it leaves so much up to the imagination and theres also this emotional punch seeped into it which could easily leave a powerful impact on the viewer if you stay engaged with the story. I was engaged the entire time and it deffentially left a heavy impact on me.
I would probably disagree somewhat that it's a controversial ending the film has – I would actually say I think it's actually a fairly standard note of ending for a film of the style Inception wants to be.
It's been used before and it's the only kind of ending a film like that can really have.
Which I think may be what brings it into the realm of predictability for a percentage of the audience watching it who've seen the like before.
True, it is the kind of ending you would expect a movie like this would have, but I still feel like quite a few people atleast the general moviegoers just don't get it. When I saw it last night in a packed theatre I noticed alot of gasping and WTF kind of reactions at the end. Now I don't know if this has anything to do with it, but most of my audience where typical teens and I'm not saying all teens are dumb, but I got this feeling that none of them understood it. I know this is up or debate, but this could also be why this movie is getting such strong repeat viewings with the younger audiences. You deffentially have to see it more the once to get it all in. Once you do it makes alot more sense.
I wouldn't automatically go down the route of dumb teens either (would I totally exclude it – no) but possibly they haven't seen that kind of ending as much.
The interesting thing was that I could tell the laughter I mentioned seemed to be older voices (thus implying viewers familiar with where the ending was going due to more experience with it perhaps) over younger ones.
So maybe that's why it's getting a lot of repeat business from younger age groups.
That makes sense too, but it's very interesting a movie like this is getting better reactions from teens than adults. According to boxoffice research audiences under 30 gave it an A and those over 30 gave it a B -.
That tends to fit with most people I know who have seen it – mostly over 30s – and definitely are more reserved about the film and rating it.
@Laremy Perhaps I should let the box office results do the talking, but I've thought of a way to concisely answer your Selena Gomez question, "Is she another Miley?" Basically, if you have to ask then the answer is no.
You might also consider that "Another Miley" wouldn't even be preceeded by portents and signs. She would explode onto the scene like some kind of amazing supernova, breaking records all over the place. Maybe her T.V. show would break records and pave the way for other successful shows. Maybe she would start her touring career by being an opening act, only to find most of the audience had her T-shirts on and already knew the lyrics to her music more than the headliner. Maybe her first headlining tour would be the the most in demand ticket of the year with resold tickets averaging more than any other tour's resold tickets. Maybe she would break movie box office records. And Maybe in only 3 1/2 years of being involved with music commercially (ending 3-15-10), she would be within 10 million album sales of Christina Aguilera's 30 million and closing fast, even though she was living in a more challenging album sales environment. Etc, etc. All before being 18 years old.
Just to pass on the information. Selena Gomez's successful Disney Channel TV show has been cancelled. Within 8 months of losing the exposure of her TV show being aired, Hilary Duff could no longer bring in any box office, with a $2,395 OW PTA for her final three star vehicles. Selena Gomez will never be as successful as Hilary Duff, and will probably struggle to stay in the entertainment industry.
Why did they cancel it if it was successful?
No one will say, but since the ratings are good it's probably a pay dispute. If so, then I think Selena is getting bad advice, and she should stick with her show, even at a smallish wage, because it gives her lots of visibility. I think if she had another series or signifacantly big projects lined up, I would have heard. (an low budget indie movie and a New Line movie with an original script (no built in support) and not co-staring a box office draw)
A possible conspiracy type theory is that Selena has cost Disney money. While her show makes money, her behavior has caused the fans of some of the Disney stars to take sides (even though the stars say repeatedly that there is no fued), the result being a refusal to support the other stars. It's one thing to have Twilight T-shirts that say Team Jacob, or Team Edward, when both characters are in the same movie. It's quite another when each Disney star has his or her own merchandise and shows, with many fans refusing to support "the other side's" offerings. For example, at Miley's merchandising and offerings for Disney peak, a 10% business decline due to disaffected Selena fans would have represented at least $100,000,000 in annual sales! It can even be much worse than that. Imagine buying a Hannah Montana backpack for school, and then having Selena supporters make snide comments about it! Or the reverse! That's why I'm keeping track of Selena's career to see if she will be involved in any Disney related projects. To see if Disney wants to keep her at arms length. I doubt Selena is wanting to keep Disney at arms length. So far, no Disney projects unrelated to Wizard's of Waverly Place.
Just to be more clear. At one time, fans of the current Disney stars mutually supported each other with goodwill towards Miley Cyrus, Selena Gomez, The Jonas Brothers, and Demi Lovato. Then something happened that caused fans to take sides. Even within this four person clique there has been sides changing, notably Demi Lovato, with the Jonas Brothers seemingly going back and forth and back and forth. Ashley Tisdale is Team Miley, but she is not part of the controversy.
This is sad news for her. The film looked good and she is a talented actress.
Selena Gomez might be a better singer then actress. Hilary Duff problem was she just looks a lot older then she is, but is doing well in clothing design.
@Steve J: No she's not. Her singing sounds robotic and plain. She is a way better actress.
Have you heard music in the last year? Lady Gaga made "robotic" mainstream. Kes$a? Daft Punk is doing the score for a high dollar Disney movie (Tron), that's how hot dance music/electronic is right now, and that is the audience Gomez is going for.
With this information, let's talk about Ramona and Beezus. The numbers this weekend have proved that Gomez is far from a box office draw. However, we can also say that her film will drop the least next weekend outside of Toy Story 3. The film's competition consists of a Disney fantasy flick with bad buzz, a movie about man-children destined to drop out of the top ten, and two animated films. It will never catch up to the animated films, but it will do well. You can count on it.
I have seen many ads for Schmucks and Cats & Dogs for a month plus. And how in the world does St. Cloud get more theaters then Schmucks?
1. Dinner for Shcmucks-$35.7 million (If it had more theatres it would probably rake in 55 mill, given the interest that the lowest commone denomenator group that hollywood caters to)
2. Inception-$31.5 million (I wouldn't be surprised if it only surmounted to 25 mil)
3. Charlie St. Cloud-$27.4 million(Wouldn't be surprised if this one does much more. Zach Effron + girl fanbase x family, sqare rooted by little competition = caching! caching!)
4. Salt-$22.7 million dollars (Should've made more money. I guess that's what you get for filming part of your movie in up-state N.Y. Maybe The Other Guys will break that trend)
5. Despicable Me-$18.5 million (At a "69 million dollar budget," you know this thing has already made a huge profit)
Inception and Salt will probably be on top next week too.
I think some people are underestimating Cats and Dog 2 significantly. Yes, it's absolute crap but it's also 3D, has talking animals and is in 3700+ theaters. It will make probably more than $20 million.
And Efron has a big fanbase but Charlie St. Cloud is not an easy sell. It's not a romcom but a drama which looks fairly depressive/sad and unlike some of the recent tearjerker it's not Nicolas Sparks even if it look like it. I don't think many people know the author or book. Romantic dramas never open big. I think it will be somewhere mid teens.
I guess 4.3.2.1 hasn't come out Stateside yet.
I doubt that you Americans have a clue who either Noel Ckarke or Ben Drew are.
I meant Noel Clarke
How I think Next week will pan out
1. Inception
2. Cats & Dogs 2
3. Salt
4. Dinner for Schmucks
5. Dispicable Me
6. Sorcerer's Apprentice
7. Toy Story 3
8. Ramona & Beezus
9. Charlie St Cloud
10 Eclipse
Logic
Only Eclipse's rabid fanbase will do repeat viewings to Eclipse.
Cats & Dogs 2 will take a lot of the 3D screens from Toy Story 3 and Dispicable Me
Inception has IMAX in it's favour.
10. will either be Eclipse or Grown Ups Eclipse more likely due to it's over-devoted fanbase.
Or The Kids Are All Right.
It's a toughie M1 it could go either way.
As a brit I was under the impression that The Kids Are Alright was a Game show in the 1990s hosted by Michael Barrymore
@M1 – yep, I noticed that The Kids are All Right just missed out on a top ten spot this weekend, and although I have no idea what it's next expansion will be next weekend, if it does then I could see it as a possibility for sneaking in next week.
Random comment, but pretty amazing how much more active the comments sections have grown since I started checking the box office features here…which I'd guess was about 3 years ago.
I don't always agree with everything you guys write, but kudos to Rope Of Silicon for building out this interesting content.
Laremy, I believe Salt's production budget to be at 110M$.
That seems like too much.
It is the amount stated on Box Office Mojo though, which ties in with the estimate ($100) that was given on Deadline before the film opened. The wiki entry for the film also states $110 million but has no source listed.
I couldn't find any info on The Numbers yet.
The scuttlebut says that $20 million of that is Angie's salary.
I had read previously that 'Salt' represented a new salary high for her personally – which was reported but not with a figure attached on Deadline – but since she reportedly got $15 million plus for 'Wanted' in 2007 then $20 million seems plausible to me.
Although I've also read rumours it was $15 million base for 'Salt' with a high backend deal attached.
I'll just throw out my ten biggest domestic grossers of the year. Given that I don't see too many surprises on the horizon. Although that's probably why they're surprises aren't they?
1. Toy Story 3-$406 million (There isn't really any question of it at this point)
2. Tron Legacy-$352 million (3D dollars, Christmas release, "family" film, it will surpass the most modest of expectations)
3. Alice In Wonderland-$334 million (As if Avatar weren't enough, this is a prime example of why studios will be either shooting or post-converting anything to 3D to make more money)
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 1-$325 (The beginning of the end for this beloved franchise. The 3D money coupled with fan excitement will no doubt raise it's total beyond expectations)
5. Iron Man 2-311 million (Just as mentioned above, this will be another prime example of why studios will continue to use 3D for financial reasons. Lord knows this one was an "underperformer")
6. Twilight Saga Eclipse-$297 million (This one could very-well end up just a couple million shy of Tony Stark's second outing. But other than that, there really isn't much else to say about this laughable, deservedley lambasted series of "films")
7. Inception-$280 million (Don't get me wrong, I want this one to do better, but if anything, I'm being generous with this estimate. It won't make a huge profit until later in the home market. And it won't earn it's righteous acclaim for years to come)
8. Chronicles of Narnia-$254 million (Despite the failure of it's predecessors outing, fanbase interest is greater for this installment and will no doubt translate to good business)
9. Shrek The Forever After-$236 million (The swan song deserves to finish last in a franchise that's been waterboarded to death)
10. Despicable Me-$227 million (Could very well swap places for Shrek, and I think maybe it should, but for now, I'll give it my conservative estimate)
Unless Scott Pilgram or The Other Guys does a Hangover.
I really can't see either of those things hapenning. For starters it's too late in the summer for any film to pull those kinds of numbers. The Hangover, as well as Wedding Crashers, both surprise hits in there own right, had the luxury of openning before summer began to wind down in August. Other Guys I could see having Talladega Nights style numbers, while Pilgrim could open in the 20 to 30 million range with enough momentum for it to enter the 100 million club.