Comments on: Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 10 – Jul. 12, 2009

By: Stiggy

Stiggy — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:24:19 +0000

The problem Bruno had was that Roland Emmerich's 2012 was originally going to be released on July 10th. However Sony decedid to postpone 2012 to a less competitive enviroment, November 13th, where it's biggest competition was Disney's A Christmas Carol.

People were under the impression that 2012 was coming out and was sad about the postpone.

By: John

John — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 20:24:03 +0000

@Adam: I think it's hilarious that you describe people who have read the Harry Potter books as casual fans. I didn't read any Star Wars books but I was fan enough to see the complete series. I'm starting to think greater communication with the internet will make all fan movies somewhat frontloaded: opening bigger and falling faster.

By: Adam

Adam — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:33:52 +0000

Word is Harry Potter broke The Dark Knight midnight show record, Im still doubting that it will hold up in the long run. The die-hard Potter fans are definitely seeing it but unfortunately most of the casual ones (that have read the books) are going to be very disappointed. The 2 largest scenes at the end of the book have been "omitted" from this movie. The funeral and large scale battle were removed because the funeral didnt go with the feel of the movie and the battle would seem "redundant" apparantly with another one in the seventh movie. That statement makes no sense to me because LotR had a large scale battle in all 3 movies and they did just fine. Granted it has already started off better than I had thought it would but with the enormous changes from the book it may fall faster than the previous movies with the loss of old fans. One thing I am expecting to help with HP6 slightly is the fact that it has been commended by the Vatican and religion has been holding back many movie-goers (but that didnt help The DaVinci Code too much). I guess well see how it does this week.

By: John

John — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 04:03:59 +0000

I'm sorry Bruno fans but I just don't see this movie making more than $60 million. Maybe even 55. If people considering seeing Bruno put it off by one week to see Harry Potter, they'll have two new rated R comedies to take a chance on. It won't overcome the bad buzz and the competition. Forget about family friendly second run theaters.

By: Jacob

Jacob — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 03:15:36 +0000

And as for Harry Potter:

I think fans have just waited so much after the surprising decision of Warner to move it from Nov 2008 to July 2009, that the start will be gigantic, even more than HP5, but not as high as Transformers 2. There's just nothing in the Harry Potter franchise history that would make us think it's gonna make 200 or more million over 5 days, or that it would explode with over 60 million in the opening day as TF2 did. But I have a feeling, and this one is definetely gonna be bigger than HP5, and that it could also become the first Harry Potter movie since the first one to surpass the 300 million barrier domestically and the first one ever to surpass the magical 1B worldwide.

My instinct says:

Wednesday: 50 million
Thursday: 24 million
Friday: 29 million
Saturday: 33 million
Sunday: 24 million
Total Friday to Sunday: 86 million
Total Wednesday to Sunday: 160 million

Total Domestic: 325 million
Total Overseas: 680 million
Total Worldwide: 1.005 million

By: Jacob

Jacob — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:54:13 +0000

48 comments!! I'm sorry but I cannot read that much, don't have enough time xD.

Bruno: Surprised by the dangerous friday to saturday drop, from 14 to 8 is really something to be worried about. I don't think this will make over 85 million domestically, and no idea about internationally.

Ice Age 3: Virtually matched the 2nd's 120 million 12 day total. Of course, 3 years ago prices were much lower and there was no 3D boom, so Ice Age 3 is still running slower than the previous. Buuuuuuuuuut, Fox just can't be anything else than happy: overseas the movie has had one of the most massive first 2 weeks in history: 323 million in a mere 12 days. This would be expected and normal numbers for sequels of very popular franchises such as Harry Potter, Star Wars, Spiderman, Indiana Jones, Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean ….. not for Ice Age. I'm just shocked, 323 million in this short period is simply something astronomical. With these numbers is now a fact that it will surpass the 651 million final worldwide gross of The Meltdown, and maybe it could even reach the 700 million mark, making it the 3rd most succesful movie of the year behind Harry Potter 6 and Transformers 2 (or maybe the 4th, if Avatar surprises at the end of the year).

Transformers 2: After a heavy 61% decline, the movie stabilizes with a 43% drop. It is very difficult to predict if this one will or won't reach the 400 million mark at the end domestically, because if it has a normal behaviour for sequels in the next weeks, it will end very, very close to that number; you just don't know if that will be over it, or under it. If TF2 is lucky it will, if the next declines are big, it just won't. But 390 million are now definetely a certain fact. Overseas it jumped to 365 million, and it's just now a mere 4 million under of the previous, and, by the time I'm writing this, it should already have done that. I believe this will end with abot 840-870 million worldwide.

By: Connor

Connor — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:52:14 +0000

My predictions for harry potter on midnight, wednesday, thursday, and weekend
Midnight- $25
Wednesday-$50 Total-$75
Thursday-$40 Total-$115
Weekend-$110 Total-$225
Harry Potter 6 is getting great reviews. And a lot of people love harry potter. And it will be the biggest harry potter ever.
Can it take on Transformers 2. Both great franchises. except hp5, hp5 sucked. Lets see.

By: athar

athar — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:54:49 +0000

@Bustray: Before i saw the trailer, even i had it making $250 mil+.. But then somehow, after seeing all that action and effects filled trailer, i got a feeling that there is something missing in it. I just dont know what. It was the same feeling which i had got when i watched the trailer of Terminator Salvation for the first time. Well, lets hope i am proved wrong this time. I am a fan of the destructive movies which Roland Emmerich has made(I have lost count of how many times i have seen Independence Day and Godzilla)

By: Bustray

Bustray — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:30:58 +0000

@athar: Yes, hype for this film has really built, and the fact that it's opening close to Thanksgiving could give it the benefit of some solid holds. It could end with around $260-$270 million, I think.

By: Roger

Roger — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:20:56 +0000

312 mil$ worldwide on a budget of 90 mil$ for Ice Age 3 (in 12 days). Wow. I was never extremely into this series, but seems like for some reason the people love it…

By: TheCheckSpot

TheCheckSpot — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 12:44:03 +0000

@kdogg: Hayden's mother was a soap opera actress, her father is a fire chief. I looked up the backgrounds of her parents, interestingly enough, the moment her career took off where she was making tons of money is after she was 18, so her parents won't get the cash. So, her parents screwed up royally if the intention was to "whore" her out. Though, again, she doesn't have the tabloid nightmare that is Lindsay Lohan (who was a talented young actress that made so many bad life decisions that she spiralled out of control, some blame can go on her parents, some on her friends, and some on her. She is a fascinating Shakespearean tragedy that will probably be studied for a long time). Hayden spent most of her early career as a voice over artist as well as on a soap opera (just like mommy, so it seems that it was less a whoring out and more of a bring your daughter to work, permanently). Now, when she appeared in Heroes, she did get a lot of nervous teenage and young adult boys in a bit of a tither, but alas, Claire is not a very sexual character in the series. She wears normal clothing and the producers never put in front and center and said "Look, this chick is hot, oh and she's a hero." So, she didn't use her sexuality to advance her career at all. I'm not a Hayden supporter in the least bit, I'm just against misogyny in any form, and kdogg, yours is a classic case. Is it because these women are successful and they won't sleep with you, so you do the classic male response by calling them whores or broads and whatever negative term you used. All you did was make me go research Hayden and discover that she has a respectable career and made some decent choices whether they were choices her parents made or her. Now, her parents are amazingly out of the spotlight. Why didn't Mom use her daughter's fame to get on a reality show or resurrect her acting career? Where are the lawsuits from the parents? They actually come across as an average "Hollywood" family as opposed to money grubber attention whores (I used this term to describe someone who desires attention as opposed as a sexual connotation). Full disclosure: The father was arrested for "domestic abuse" for allegedly hitting his wife, but charges got dropped and nothing like that has appeared again. So, where are the parents? Kdogg, I know what I'm saying won't reach you. That's fine. There is something deep seated within you whether it be your misogyny or your homophobia (that's from a different thread), but you aren't using fact and logic in your arguments, just pure emotion. Now, you may seem right, but in 200 years after we've died out, and the aliens are excavating are documents, I hope that they see that we weren't all misogynistic xenophobes that viewed their kind as shape shifting robots. Sorry for writing so much, I'll be more succinct next time.

By: TheCheckSpot

TheCheckSpot — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 12:25:25 +0000

@athar: I have to say nice job with backing up your statement. I can see your argument, and it actually makes sense. Using Star Trek as an example certainly helps. My chief concern is how many new fans will HP6 get. It's still pretty amazing that the sixth film in the series is expected to do so well. When was the last time if any that that happened. I would not be surprised at $350M in fact I would be happy for it. But will the movie get repeat business, which also could help it. This may be the best of the books, but it is also the least action packed since the book mainly dealt with flashbacks, and also more character driven material. But again, with the Star Trek comparison, that might not hurt the film too much. I don't know, but you have pushed me more into the $350M thinking now.

By: athar

athar — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 07:29:17 +0000

@Bustray: You feel 2012 will be close to the $300mil mark??

By: athar

athar — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 07:23:21 +0000

@The Check Spot:
I think in the case of this Harry Potter, we need to forget the past trends. Reasons:
1.) The movie is getting better reviews than any of the first 5 movies. That is one good reason to assume that it might not follow past trends( If i aint mistaken, Star Trek also didnt follow past trends this summer… same argument right??)

2.) This is the second last movie of the Franchise and and so people will not want to miss this simply because they know that if they skip this one, then they might be sixes and sevens when they watch the last movie. This is one of the most watched Franchises in the World of Cinema and so all those who have watched the previous movies, will definitely complete the whole series.

3.) Delaying the movie by around 8months was actually a smart move by Warner Bros.
The hype and curiousity has increased even more.

This is why i feel the movie will reach $350 mil mark. I think the 5 day numbers will give us a clear picture of how much this movie can make.

By: Vince

Vince — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 06:20:37 +0000

Quick question for you guys? What do you think about the supposed "Ice Age 4" synopsis that was rumored a while back?

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the bit of info, it said that the main characters were supposed to be frozen for thousands of years until they ended being thawed in the present time- so it'd be a normal culture clash comedy but with the Ice Age gang instead.

I thought it would be a cool idea; I'm getting sick of the setting after three films, and I wish they would just keep the core trio (and Scrat) instead of all these new characters who are largely unfunny and boring (Ellie adds absolutely nothing to the movie whatsoever). It's basically becoming a low rent "Shrek" rip-off now.

Wow, I'm discussing the politics of "Ice Age", does anyone really care? I'll stop now.

By: kdogg

kdogg — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:51:16 +0000

@thecheckspot: no you didn't. all you showed, was that she's been whored out by her parents since she was small. your argument would be that Lindsay Lohan was actually an actress, or Lizzie McGuire (whatever her name is), or Hannah Montana. All whored out by adults who see them as their retirement portfolio. While that may garner some sympathy for her, it doesn't show she's earned anything. You didn't know who she was until she was hired, for her looks (certainly not her sarah michelle gellar acting), to play a cheerleader on a poorly written tv show that fanboys flock to.

By: JM

JM — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:42:06 +0000

"Ice Age" also dropped the least because 1) It opened lower than the others, and 2) Despite initial tepid anticipation, audiences found out that the third Ice Age is just as good as the second, if not better, and that it's a fun way to spend an afternoon with the family. Oh, and little competition, as you said. Thanks to its summer weekdays, it will likely pass the first film, and maybe even the second, even it its subsequent holds prove less impressive.

As for its chances at beating "Up?" None at all. At all. Realize that "Ice Age 3" has done what many uber-blockbusters do and open on the same day in all worldwide territories. However, the only major territories "Up" has opened in are Russia and Mexico, and they aren't even that major. All the rest are minor countries. France gets it at the end of this month, Germany in September, UK in October, and Japan in December. "Up" has so, so much more to make overseas, and it's really jumping the gun to make comparisons before one film has opened in any major territories.

By: wrongturn687

wrongturn687 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:33:32 +0000

Nah dude I wasn't talking about HP. I actually thought you were talking about Bruno, but HP 6 otoh will be amazing imo and probably the only summer blockbuster to live up to expectations. It's kind of sad though that I have to again rely on a HP flick to satisy my summer blockbuster craving. This brings back too many bad memories from 2007 when the summer was basically a cluster fuck of sequels and none really live up to expectations except HP5 and I didn't even like it all that much. That's how dissapointing summer 07 was. Summer of last year kicked alot of ass though. We got so many great films like Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, The Dark Knight, Wanted, Wall – E, Kung Fu Panda, HellBoy 2, Get Smart and Tropic Thunder. Hell even Step Brothers, Pineapple Express and Hancock have been better than what we have got so far. The only movies this summer I've really liked are Star Trek, Up, DMTH and The Hangover. T2 was enjoyable, but still there alot WTF is this moments in that movie and it's really on saved by the action and Megan Fox running in slow motion LOL. I was really hoping that Public Enemies could save it, but I didn't even like it all that much either. I enjoyed for the most part, but I really expected more and how the hell can you not deiver with the combination Johnny Depp, Christian Bale and Michael Mann ? :(

Peace Out !

By: Eric

Eric — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:53:54 +0000

@wrongturn687: Oh crap, my bad, I thought you were talking about the mixed reviews that Half-Blood Prince was getting, and I was, like, what? My bad entirely. I completely misread that.

By: wrongturn687

wrongturn687 — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:45:41 +0000

@Eric: True this movie got solid reviews from critics, but when you compare it's 70% to the 95% Borat got critics didn't like it as much. I'm not talking about critics anyways though, but the general audience. The movie got a low C grade cinema score from moviegoers probably because of the heavy amount of cock close ups imo or the shock humor just didn't go over well. Now I don't how accurate those surveys are, but T2 got a B grade from general moviegoers and was being bashed to sh*t, by most fanboys and critics, but look at how it's still doing. We'll just have to wait until next week to tell.

Peace Out !

By: TheCheckSpot

TheCheckSpot — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:27:20 +0000

@kdogg: Not defending her, I was just showing the fallacy in your arguments. She actually got where she is in her career for being an actor as compared to others that you would call "broads." You were very narrow in your understanding of her career, and I was just showing you that. In fact, the only movie where I've seen her scantily clad and vapid so far is I Love You, Beth Cooper. She doesn't do much in Heroes, but she has more range than your stereotypical dumb blonde. I also don't remember her wearing Megan Fox style clothing (not an attack on Megan, she admits that she uses her sexuality to sell herself) in Heroes, she wore the cheerleader outfit, but she was playing a cheerleader, would've been silly if they had her wear a habit. And I don't know if she's been abused or pushed out into the acting world by uncaring stage parents or not. We assume stage parents are bad, and they tend to be, but it doesn't seem as if anyone exploited her. Especially since they started "whoring her out" when she was 11 months old. Her parents could be very nice people. After all, there aren't any Hayden barely dressed vogue photos anywhere. Who knows. If her parents or people who knows her parents read this, please let us know if we are right about what kind of people they are.

By: TheCheckSpot

TheCheckSpot — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:19:57 +0000

@cocina: Well, actually, comedian here, so I'm kind of a pro or something. I know. You will respond something along the lines of not being funny or not famous or something of that manner. I'll stop you there, already said it. Second, he didn't do either of those things in Talledaga Nights or Sweeney Todd or Madagascar, though if he could do that in an animated film, we will agree, he's a genius. Funny, I agree with you that he shouldn't be a lead actor and he continue to do the character actor fan. You may not agree with his satire, that's fine, but there's no denying he is massively talented. And with the plethora of comedy that I see on a regular basis from various shows, I can consider myself a "pro or something" when it comes to evaluating comedic performances.

By: kdogg

kdogg — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:45:04 +0000

@thecheckspot: Yeah. Bug's Life. Way to go to defend her there. Ice Princess? All those roles were minor (I mean, voice work? come on). She got what fame she has for ONE thing and one thing only: Heroes. Oh, and having a warrant put out for her arrest by Japan, because she's a crazy PETA-phile. Yeah, dude. One thing. And if her parents have been whoring her out since she was 10, all that does is make me feel sorrier for her, because few child actors have parents who actually give a damn about them…and usually, those parents are mormons.

By: Eric

Eric — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:44:57 +0000

@wrongturn687: Mixed reactions? So far most of the early reviews have been positive...

By: Vince

Vince — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:24:52 +0000

Oh and what's up with the harsh word of mouth for "Bruno"? I liked it, and the (douchebag filled) midnight crowd I saw it with laughed a ton. Mostly people made comments like "really funny" or "hilarious"; the only negatives were "not as good as Borat" and "The Hangover was funnier" (which is the truth!). I'm guessing people didn't like how offensive it was, or maybe it was played out to be a different film then what they were expecting (which sounds about right). Oh well, a $70 million total would still be pretty good for this film, and I'm sure it'll clean up when it hits DVD stores.

Lastly, I agree with Bustray's numbers- "Potter" will do well, not "Transformers 2" well, but it'll probably have the biggest 5-day opening of the series, and maybe even the highest domestic total if all goes well.

By: Vince

Vince — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:15:57 +0000

I think people are disregarding a major factor in "Harry Potter"'s success:

Women.

What something like "The Dark Knight" or "Wolverine" is to rabid fanboys, "Harry Potter" is to women. Every girl I've talked to has purchased tickets for a midnight showing or is going on the first day to the film. It's huge- it's a big blockbuster to them as well.

So no one needs to worry that there aren't enough advertisements or trailers for the film. It'll do just fine on its own, even without a marketing blitz like what was done with "Transformers".

Will it cross $300 million? I think so. Will it go much further than that? Probably not, but I'm always enjoying surprises at the box office, so who knows? Maybe it'll become the highest grossing Potter film ever and beat "Transformers" for the 2009 crown, or maybe it won't. I can't wait to find out though.

By: Bustray

Bustray — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:05:51 +0000

I don't understand what the poor word of mouth on Bruno is about. I went to see it with some friends Friday, and even though there were a couple of people who left the theater, the people who were gutsy enough to stay seemed to enjoy it. I mean, this is Sacha Baron Cohen; the people who went should've known what they were getting into.

Anyways, looking like Up will just barely miss that $300 million mark, seeing as HP 6 and G-Force will be releasing over the next two weeks. There will probably just be three $300 million hits releasing this year; Transformers 2, Harry Potter 6 and Avatar. 2012, Up and The Hangover should all come close, though. Harry Potter 6 is currently selling more tickets online than Transformers 2 at the same stage, and is also outselling Harry Potter 5 by nearly twice as many tickets. So I believe that the 6th installment could grab over $100 million in it's opening weekend, and then drop under 55% due to strong word of mouth that is already spreading. I believe it could do $310-$320 million before leaving theaters. Early predictions:

1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince- $107 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown- $17 million
3. Bruno- $12 million
4. Transformers 2- $11 million
5. The Hangover- $8 million
6. Public Enemies- $7.5 million
7. The Proposal- $7 million

By: James

James — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:02:22 +0000

and I also just realized, they have been marketing the HELL out of the movie on late night TV. They will save the spots for after the opening weekend. They want a long burn on this cash cow.

By: James

James — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:00:36 +0000

It is very possible that this latest Harry Potter will be the biggest box office smash so far. Aside from the buzz that this movie is the "best of the series so far" ( I understand that the advertising moguls always dig up a random review saying that it is the 'best in the series' but on rottentomatoes.com it is almost a unanimous thought, which is saying something) it has had very many print and public advertisements in LA (where I live) and around the LA area (Orange County, Riverside…ect).
Over 500 midnight showings have already been sold out, and this was as of two days ago.
Then there are the new fans who read the books in the two year time span between the fifth and sixth movie.
Then there are the fans who (like myself) treasure Half Blood Prince above the other parts of the story.
Then there are the parents who will take their children (not their YOUNG children mind you, but 10-11 year olds) to see it because it has earned a PG rating.
Then there is the 96 percent tomatometer reading ( I know this is subject to change, but Potter movies usually come out of the gates slower than this on rottentomatoes), and although Transformers 2 proved that critics do not control the box office, they certainly can help.

I'm going to go ahead and place Half Blood Prince at a Domestic 310,000,000 run.

53.2 Mil for opening night

and a cool 119 Mil for the long five day weekend.

These may seem unrealistic to you, and I am new to this game, but I have faith in numbers.

By: BR

BR — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 00:08:12 +0000

@Nemkes: I agree with you that recent films show us that Harry Potter films favor a foreign audience. The last edition of the film franchise only made $292,004,738 domestically, but i have a feeling WOM is going to be very strong on this film. Early reviews on Rotten Tomato already put the film at a 96%. I also hope that if such a poorly done film, such as T2, can make so much money, that Harry Potter can do the same. I have a feeling this time around the domestic numbers will reach just over that $300 million mark….i hope!