Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jul. 10 - Jul. 12, 2009

Bruno coming in at $30.4 means the mysteriously named "BR" came in closest with a call of $29.3m. Only one other commenter was under my prediction of $33.1m, a fellow named Athar. So what happened? After a massive $14m Friday night Bruno fell quickly. Was it word of mouth? Too sexual? Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 1 Week In A Row
My take is that while Borat was silly, Bruno was overtly sexual. Which had to have hurt it. Most of the commenter predictions were in the $30s and $40s, heck there was even a call for $50m on the board. So we can definitely say it didn't live up to box-office expectations. However, the studio has still got to be pretty happy as you can make a film like Bruno very cheaply, spending most of the dollars on marketing. It has a decent shot at $100m domestically, provided word of mouth isn't the problem. But I'm slightly dubious. I think $80m is a more realistic call.
Result: 30.4 million (My rank: #1, $2.7m off)
Of all the Ice Age films, this one fell the least. Has to be due to competition, right? Fox has already topped $300m worldwide cume here, so this is certainly a big win for them.
Result: 28.5 million (My rank: #2, $5.6m off)
No, it didn't tank this weekend, falling a respectable 42.8 percent. But nothing really fell this weekend, as competition was light, and only one film fell more than Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Wanna take a guess?
Result: 24.2 million (My rank: #3, $2.2m off)
Yep, Public Enemies. It was probably too slowly paced to garner much crossover appeal. At a budget of $100m Public Enemies is looking slightly doomed financially.
Result: 14.1 million (My rank: #4, $1.6m off)
"Raichu" nailed this number. Good on him. Sidenote: Does anyone see a reason Universal is sandbagging on Bruno at all? That Friday night was so big, $16m on Sat/Sun seems really light.
Result: 10.5 million (My rank: #5, $0.7m off)
It was the worst weekend in a month, and the third worst weekend of the summer, but it still wasn't as dire as I predicted. The top 12 made nearly $136m.
Result: 9.9 million (My rank: #6, $1.9m off)
We basically knew it would get crushed... and it did. I read a bit of the Hayden P. dust-up, so I'll throw my two cents in. I don't think she's overtly sexual, I think she just chooses bad roles for herself. Which means she won't be around in a decade if the trend continues.
Result: 5.0 million (My rank: #7, $0.3m off)
8. Up
Up vs. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs at the box office. Who you got? Ice Age is ahead worldwide ($312m to $309m) and has done a ton of work internationally. Will Up end up coming from behind?
Result: 4.6 million (My rank: #8, $1.6m off)
Even My Sister's Keeper only dropped 27 percent. See, Hollywood? If you give people nothing new to choose from everything will make a little cash.
Result: 4.1 million (My rank: #9, $1.2m off)
Another $100m budgeted film that seems to be in trouble. Probably too late to save it, eh?
Result: 1.6 million (My rank: #10, $0.7m off)

Allright, get your Wednesday-Friday Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince predictions in. We'll break it down on Wednesday morning, right here, in living color.

  • The Check Spot

    I am stunned at the drop on Bruno over the weekend. I'm sure there were a ton of factors involved, but I wasn't expecting Bruno to play like a fanboy film at all. I wonder what the numbers are for the individual sections of the country. I'm guessing big on the coasts not so much in the midwest. I agree that this film will probably pull in $75M - $80M. Not that it matters, no matter how much money this movie made, Cohen is too big to make another movie like this.

    As far as Harry Potter, I'm guessing a $48M opening day, followed by $22M for Thursday, then $80M over the weekend. This one could've done better for the weekend, but Transformers is hogging up all the IMAX screens this weekend, so Harry has to wait a week or so to get some IMAX business.

  • cocina

    Bruno did well on friday because of the die hard fans flocked to see Sascha Baron Cohen's new movie, but word of mouth died down because people are tired of the character and Cohen's antics in promoting this film. The film wasn't too great either because this type of shock journalism has been played out in movies and tv (daily show, colbert report, etc...).

    I'm just thankful Cohen doesn't have any more of these characters in his closet. Lets see him make it on his acting...not likely.

  • Nick

    Worldwide-wise, I think Ice Age has a good chance at beating Up, but domestically - no way. Yeah, it fell 32% this weekend, but it has HP and G-Force (in 3-d) on its way, so the next couple of weeks are gonna be hard. I'd say $290M for Up and $205M for IA3 when it's all said and done.

    As for Bruno, yeah, that Saturday 39% drop was a big surprise. Right now even its shot at $100M is very thin, and I don't think it will be a huge surprise if it drops something like 60-70% next weekend. Still, the budget is $42M, so it'll make a profit anyway.

    Also, I was stunned at The Hangover's 12% drop. Especially considering a direct competition which is Bruno. I mean, right now the film has a great chance at making about $270M (if not more) by the end of its run. Totally unbelievable.

    As far as Harry Potter, I'd say $55-60 million Wednesday, followed by $25-30 million Thursday, and then $95-105 million over the weekend. Let's see how strong it will be when compared to its predecessors and Transformers 2.

  • The Check Spot

    @cocina: Just for the record, in Borat and Bruno, Cohen was doing something we like to call acting. It may not be scripted, but he created a character and developed a wonderful performance. Bruno is my least favorite of the Ali G characters, so my excitement for this movie is certainly not as high as for Borat which was my favorite Cohen character. This guy is going to make it on his acting, especially since he's so enveloped in his characters that he is unrecognizable between movie roles, sort of a comedic Gary Oldman if you will. I hope he doesn't get leading man status because he's a gifted character actor (see Sweeny Todd and Talladega Nights for examples). The mockumentary is gone for him but he's got an amazing career ahead of him. I wish some of our comedic stars we have now (looking at you, Adam Sandler, Seth Rogen, and Jack Black...I think you're funny, but you don't really develop too many memorable characters though Sandler has recently been stepping out of his range and experimenting a bit with indies.) had the ability to create multiple characters and have their personality disappear within the character. Cohen is genius at it, and yes, he's got a stellar career ahead of him as long as he makes the right choices.

  • wrongturn687

    30mill is not a bad gross at all it's just with all th media hyped around this flick and studios predicting $40 to $50mill opening weekend it's kind of suprising how short it fell of those predictions. Also with HP6 coming out next week and the mixed reactions this movie recieved I see a rough road ahead. It needs to make atleast $16 to 17$mill next week to cross the $100mill barrier and if it's any lower than that I don't think it will make it.

    Peace Out !

  • Dylan

    @ cocina

    Say what you want, but I think Cohen did a more than respectable job in Sweeney Todd.

  • BR

    I like the "mysterious" reference. I think Bruno was so low because WOM was that it was too sexual. Many people told me that it was "10 times worse than Borat." I watched family after family walk out of the theatre and demand their money back. People walked in expecting somewhat of a sequel to Borat, and watched something completely different.

    I believe Harry Potter could easily beat out T2 for the top spot of the summer, if not the year, simply because its story is amazing. Something T2 lacked.

    I would also like to add that I hate that such a brilliant film as Public Enemies might end up not making any money at all.

  • ben

    Hasn't Ice Age 3 opened in most territories now? From the looks of Up's paltry $35m, it has a lot more places to open up in. I think that's an unfair comparison to make at this stage.

  • Leandro Dubost

    Interesting to see how Transformers 2 is holding at the box-office compared to The Dark Knight. Remember the days, 'will Transformers top TDK records?', etc, etc? Well, it's clear that Transformers is no match for The Dark Knight, box-office wise (because quality-wise, there's no discurssion, come on).

    (just looking at the boxofficemojo charts)
    Both reached the 200 million mark in 5 days.
    For the 250m, TDK took 8 days and Transformers took 9 days. Almost the same.
    For the 300m, TDK took 10 days and Transformers 14 days. See a trend here?
    Now, for the 350m, TDK took 14 days. After 19 days, Transformers is at 339milliion. How many more days for it to do more 10 million? Just to add the number here, Pirates 2 did 350m in 23 days.

    So the 500 million mark is OBVIOUSLY safe for The Dark Knight (and Titanic, let's not forget it). But I still think Transformers will hit 400 million, eventually...
    Oh, by the way, TDK hit that in 18 days. See that, Michael Bay? GOOD word of mouth. =P

    PS: for the next weekend, I think Harry Potter will reach 200 million in five days too. And no, it won't reach the 500 million either. But I won't blame word of mouth for Harry, his movies are usually very frontloaded, though they're actually good.

  • BR

    Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoneix opened up $77,108,414 its opening weekend two years ago. I have The Half-Blood Prince 5 day numbers at $85.6 million only because I feel this film has not been marketed near as much as the last film. I have seen a few tv spots here and there, but nothing like it should have been, or is Harry Potter just one of those films you KNOW is coming out?

    I think Yates has the vision that JK Rowling was hoping for when the series was turned into a film franchise. I mean, Order of the Phoenix almost made 1 billion dollars worldwide and that is no easy task, unless you are Titanic or TDK. I have been waiting for this film for a while now and I believe it will be just as, if not more, brilliant than the earlier films.

  • BR

    * meant 3 days for 85.6 million, 5 day numbers will be around $185.6 million. I think the Tues. night midnight shows + all day Sat. showing will add $100 million.

  • kdogg

    Tran2 didn't hold as high as I'd hoped. Ice Age 3 was pretty lame, imo. As for comments on "word of mouth"...honestly, people, what do you THINK is holding this movie up??? Critics HATE it. But, common movie goers (people who just want to be entertained, not to be spoken to about "the human condition" [faint]) CLEARLY like it. So, would all the detractors please get over yourselves? Thank you in advance. As for Bruno, yeah, any movie with this much press should be disappointed with a $30 mil opening. With Harry Potter next weekend, it only had 1 week to make an impact. And, clearly, it didn't. It's also nice to see Hayden P. fail. I, like many others, just don't like that dumb broad.

  • kdogg

    And don't give me grief about using the derogatory term "broad." I stand by it in cases of women (I use that word loosely here) like her. She's a stereotypical dumb blonde, who got where she is, not based on any kind of talent, but because she looks like jailbait. Period.

  • Athar

    ALAS... A mention in the Wrap-Up... Thanks a lot Laremy.
    What happened with Bruno was probably the same thing that happened with Year One. There were not much expectations, the few people who were expecting something from it went to watch it on Friday and then they didnt like it. And once BAD WOM was out, everyone else decided to skip it. Still, as far as money is concerned, it will not only recover but make some profit as well(as Laremy pointed out, you dont need a big budget for a movie like this)

    Harry Potter 6 now... I believe had it released on Friday, it would have crossed $125m mark for the weekend.... I feel it might not beat the newly set Wednesday record of Transformers ROTF.. I have it making $52 mil on Wednesday and $28 mil on Thursday... Friday should be in the range of $36 mil...Lets see... I personally feel it would reach $350 mil by the end of its Domestic Run

  • The Check Spot

    @kdogg: Yes, she did look hot back in Remember the Titans. Just another typical 10 year old dumb slut. Hoo-boy, or the Ice Princess, or her voice in A Bug's Life. There's someone who just got her career thanks to her looks. (The previous part of this is a joke for the record)

  • The Check Spot

    @Athar: As tragic as this sounds, I don't think Harry Potter will beat Transformers nor will it make it to 350 million. Nothing in its past suggests that this could happen. After all, the biggest Harry Potter movie was the first one, and it is also the only one to make it past 300 million. I think if it had a few of the IMAX theaters going in, then it could've had a Transformers 2 style opening, but that will hurt it. Also, it's not generating new fans really, it's the same ones who saw the movies before. It will be frontloaded, and I fell it will just miss the 300 million dollar mark. As of now, T2 will be the only 300+ million film for the summer of 2009. Unless Julie and Julia makes a surprise run (it won't, just kidding)

  • Raichu

    All holdovers really had good holds, even Transformers 2. A lot of that is probably due to last weekend being heavily deflated because of Sat being the 4th of July. I agree that Bruno will struggle and won't hit 100mil, but a 70-80mil gross is fine given it's budget. I think UP will indeed beat IA3 worlwide when all is said and done. IA3 has a huge head start thanks to a simultaneous worldwide release, but it should start losing a whole lot of steam this coming week with Potter 6 releasing worldwide. UP is currently in a dozen or so mid side markets and not counting this week, stands at 50.8mil overseas. UP is yet to open in the big foreign markets, opting for a staggered release that is closely patterned after Ratatouille. By the time UP hits the big markets (UK, Aus, Fra, Ger, So.Korea, Japan, etc..), the summer blockbusters would've run their course already, and it is hitting those markets at busy times during those markets. Up should finish around 675-750mil worldwide.

  • Eli

    Bruno very well could instantaneous word-of-mouth. I skipped out on Bruno because I went out on Friday. Before seeing it on Saturday night, 4 different people told me about seeing it yesterday and how beyond disgusting it was.

    Well geez, I wanted to like Bruno as much as Borat but to say Bruno was out-of-this-world-level over-the-top with its gay shock value would be an understatement. We all still laughed at parts but word is gonna get out that a good half of the movie is not what people are expecting. A RESOUNDING "no homo" after seeing Bruno. Entertainment and box office-wise, Borat it ain't.

    As for HP6, it's been two full years since HP5. Expect front-loaded midnight-to-opening days. I'd expect a better opening weekend because of that long wait between movies. Plus casual/non-fans have had time to catch up on the movies on DVD. And everyone knows it's the second last book/third last movie so that may add to the "event" feel of the experience.

    Once IMAX theatres kick in, they'll account for better 3rd and 4th weekend drops than the previous movies. Fans will want to see it in 3D on a repeat viewing.

    IMO, used to be a fan of the books and stopped reading after HP4. I think the 5th was the weakest so far, let's hope HP6 brings it up a notch.

  • EnglishGavz

    I think they've probably under-estimated Bruno slightly, but it probably has under performed, it'll make profit probably though this does mark the end of the Cohen mockumentaries.

    Still, he's been brilliant in other things like Madagasgar, Sweeny Todd, Taladega Nights and has a load of upcoming projects, any accusation he can't act is completly wrong.

    It's the end of one era, start of another.

  • wrongturn687

    As for HP6 it should do extremely well next week, but I don't expect it to close to doing the amazing buisness T2 did. It just doesn't to appeal to everybody like Transformers, but that won't stop it from doing solid numbers. Here are my predictions for how it will do.

    Wed - $46mill

    Thurs - $21mill

    Fri - $28mill

    Sat - $ 31mill

    Sun - $ 25mill

    Total OP Weekend - $84mill

    Peace Out !

  • cocina

    @The Check Spot: I guess you're the leader of the Sasha Baron Cohen fan club. "Something we like to call acting..." Hah. As if you're a pro or something. Cohen's brand of acting is putting celebrities and other notable figures in front of the camera and asking stupid questions to stir a response. He'll drop with 60-70% next weekend like someone else mentioned due to his LACK of acting. And I don't see him as a leading actor because he has no heroic quality.

    @Dylan: Sweeney Todd was good without Cohen's performance. I think he was the least notable character in that movie; even the homeless woman is better regarded. But hey if you like him, you like him. I can't say anything about your choice, but just your taste.

  • wrongturn687

    Also I got something to say about ILYBC bombing. Just how the hell were the trying to sell that movie ? I aint got nothing against HP or nothing, but why did they try to sell this based on her own so called hotness alone. I mean I think she's really cute, but not really hot enough to go busting down doors to see. They were trying to sell this flick as if she would be hot enough see on the bigscreen, but the truth not that many people know who she is for that to happen. I know she got a ton of media attention after Heros, but that show is starting to fade and honestly it wasn't a great show to begin with. They were blew her media hype out of porportion.

    Peace Out !

  • GregM

    @wrongturn687: What does OP mean?

  • Am123

    Just re: Up v. Ice Age. Remember that Up doesn't hit major international markets (including the UK and Ireland, unfortunately for us) until October. So, internationally, it's got a long way to go, unlike Ice Age, which opened worldwide simultaneously.

  • http://rope nemkes

    harry potter wont even make 300 mil in`s just not that popular there.look at the past films,they are all very close but non of them made 300 ,exept the first one.overseas will do humungus 600 mil with a close to 900 mil world wide

  • BR

    @Nemkes: I agree with you that recent films show us that Harry Potter films favor a foreign audience. The last edition of the film franchise only made $292,004,738 domestically, but i have a feeling WOM is going to be very strong on this film. Early reviews on Rotten Tomato already put the film at a 96%. I also hope that if such a poorly done film, such as T2, can make so much money, that Harry Potter can do the same. I have a feeling this time around the domestic numbers will reach just over that $300 million mark....i hope!

  • James

    It is very possible that this latest Harry Potter will be the biggest box office smash so far. Aside from the buzz that this movie is the "best of the series so far" ( I understand that the advertising moguls always dig up a random review saying that it is the 'best in the series' but on it is almost a unanimous thought, which is saying something) it has had very many print and public advertisements in LA (where I live) and around the LA area (Orange County, Riverside...ect).
    Over 500 midnight showings have already been sold out, and this was as of two days ago.
    Then there are the new fans who read the books in the two year time span between the fifth and sixth movie.
    Then there are the fans who (like myself) treasure Half Blood Prince above the other parts of the story.
    Then there are the parents who will take their children (not their YOUNG children mind you, but 10-11 year olds) to see it because it has earned a PG rating.
    Then there is the 96 percent tomatometer reading ( I know this is subject to change, but Potter movies usually come out of the gates slower than this on rottentomatoes), and although Transformers 2 proved that critics do not control the box office, they certainly can help.

    I'm going to go ahead and place Half Blood Prince at a Domestic 310,000,000 run.

    53.2 Mil for opening night

    and a cool 119 Mil for the long five day weekend.

    These may seem unrealistic to you, and I am new to this game, but I have faith in numbers.

  • James

    and I also just realized, they have been marketing the HELL out of the movie on late night TV. They will save the spots for after the opening weekend. They want a long burn on this cash cow.

  • Bustray

    I don't understand what the poor word of mouth on Bruno is about. I went to see it with some friends Friday, and even though there were a couple of people who left the theater, the people who were gutsy enough to stay seemed to enjoy it. I mean, this is Sacha Baron Cohen; the people who went should've known what they were getting into.

    Anyways, looking like Up will just barely miss that $300 million mark, seeing as HP 6 and G-Force will be releasing over the next two weeks. There will probably just be three $300 million hits releasing this year; Transformers 2, Harry Potter 6 and Avatar. 2012, Up and The Hangover should all come close, though. Harry Potter 6 is currently selling more tickets online than Transformers 2 at the same stage, and is also outselling Harry Potter 5 by nearly twice as many tickets. So I believe that the 6th installment could grab over $100 million in it's opening weekend, and then drop under 55% due to strong word of mouth that is already spreading. I believe it could do $310-$320 million before leaving theaters. Early predictions:

    1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince- $107 million
    2. Ice Age: The Meltdown- $17 million
    3. Bruno- $12 million
    4. Transformers 2- $11 million
    5. The Hangover- $8 million
    6. Public Enemies- $7.5 million
    7. The Proposal- $7 million

  • Vince

    I think people are disregarding a major factor in "Harry Potter"'s success:


    What something like "The Dark Knight" or "Wolverine" is to rabid fanboys, "Harry Potter" is to women. Every girl I've talked to has purchased tickets for a midnight showing or is going on the first day to the film. It's huge- it's a big blockbuster to them as well.

    So no one needs to worry that there aren't enough advertisements or trailers for the film. It'll do just fine on its own, even without a marketing blitz like what was done with "Transformers".

    Will it cross $300 million? I think so. Will it go much further than that? Probably not, but I'm always enjoying surprises at the box office, so who knows? Maybe it'll become the highest grossing Potter film ever and beat "Transformers" for the 2009 crown, or maybe it won't. I can't wait to find out though.

  • Vince

    Oh and what's up with the harsh word of mouth for "Bruno"? I liked it, and the (douchebag filled) midnight crowd I saw it with laughed a ton. Mostly people made comments like "really funny" or "hilarious"; the only negatives were "not as good as Borat" and "The Hangover was funnier" (which is the truth!). I'm guessing people didn't like how offensive it was, or maybe it was played out to be a different film then what they were expecting (which sounds about right). Oh well, a $70 million total would still be pretty good for this film, and I'm sure it'll clean up when it hits DVD stores.

    Lastly, I agree with Bustray's numbers- "Potter" will do well, not "Transformers 2" well, but it'll probably have the biggest 5-day opening of the series, and maybe even the highest domestic total if all goes well.

  • Eric

    @wrongturn687: Mixed reactions? So far most of the early reviews have been positive...

  • kdogg

    @thecheckspot: Yeah. Bug's Life. Way to go to defend her there. Ice Princess? All those roles were minor (I mean, voice work? come on). She got what fame she has for ONE thing and one thing only: Heroes. Oh, and having a warrant put out for her arrest by Japan, because she's a crazy PETA-phile. Yeah, dude. One thing. And if her parents have been whoring her out since she was 10, all that does is make me feel sorrier for her, because few child actors have parents who actually give a damn about them...and usually, those parents are mormons.

  • TheCheckSpot

    @cocina: Well, actually, comedian here, so I'm kind of a pro or something. I know. You will respond something along the lines of not being funny or not famous or something of that manner. I'll stop you there, already said it. Second, he didn't do either of those things in Talledaga Nights or Sweeney Todd or Madagascar, though if he could do that in an animated film, we will agree, he's a genius. Funny, I agree with you that he shouldn't be a lead actor and he continue to do the character actor fan. You may not agree with his satire, that's fine, but there's no denying he is massively talented. And with the plethora of comedy that I see on a regular basis from various shows, I can consider myself a "pro or something" when it comes to evaluating comedic performances.

  • TheCheckSpot

    @kdogg: Not defending her, I was just showing the fallacy in your arguments. She actually got where she is in her career for being an actor as compared to others that you would call "broads." You were very narrow in your understanding of her career, and I was just showing you that. In fact, the only movie where I've seen her scantily clad and vapid so far is I Love You, Beth Cooper. She doesn't do much in Heroes, but she has more range than your stereotypical dumb blonde. I also don't remember her wearing Megan Fox style clothing (not an attack on Megan, she admits that she uses her sexuality to sell herself) in Heroes, she wore the cheerleader outfit, but she was playing a cheerleader, would've been silly if they had her wear a habit. And I don't know if she's been abused or pushed out into the acting world by uncaring stage parents or not. We assume stage parents are bad, and they tend to be, but it doesn't seem as if anyone exploited her. Especially since they started "whoring her out" when she was 11 months old. Her parents could be very nice people. After all, there aren't any Hayden barely dressed vogue photos anywhere. Who knows. If her parents or people who knows her parents read this, please let us know if we are right about what kind of people they are.

  • wrongturn687

    @Eric: True this movie got solid reviews from critics, but when you compare it's 70% to the 95% Borat got critics didn't like it as much. I'm not talking about critics anyways though, but the general audience. The movie got a low C grade cinema score from moviegoers probably because of the heavy amount of cock close ups imo or the shock humor just didn't go over well. Now I don't how accurate those surveys are, but T2 got a B grade from general moviegoers and was being bashed to sh*t, by most fanboys and critics, but look at how it's still doing. We'll just have to wait until next week to tell.

    Peace Out !

  • Eric

    @wrongturn687: Oh crap, my bad, I thought you were talking about the mixed reviews that Half-Blood Prince was getting, and I was, like, what?

    My bad entirely. I completely misread that.

  • wrongturn687

    Nah dude I wasn't talking about HP. I actually thought you were talking about Bruno, but HP 6 otoh will be amazing imo and probably the only summer blockbuster to live up to expectations. It's kind of sad though that I have to again rely on a HP flick to satisy my summer blockbuster craving. This brings back too many bad memories from 2007 when the summer was basically a cluster fuck of sequels and none really live up to expectations except HP5 and I didn't even like it all that much. That's how dissapointing summer 07 was. Summer of last year kicked alot of ass though. We got so many great films like Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, The Dark Knight, Wanted, Wall - E, Kung Fu Panda, HellBoy 2, Get Smart and Tropic Thunder. Hell even Step Brothers, Pineapple Express and Hancock have been better than what we have got so far. The only movies this summer I've really liked are Star Trek, Up, DMTH and The Hangover. T2 was enjoyable, but still there alot WTF is this moments in that movie and it's really on saved by the action and Megan Fox running in slow motion LOL. I was really hoping that Public Enemies could save it, but I didn't even like it all that much either. I enjoyed for the most part, but I really expected more and how the hell can you not deiver with the combination Johnny Depp, Christian Bale and Michael Mann ? :(

    Peace Out !

  • JM

    "Ice Age" also dropped the least because 1) It opened lower than the others, and 2) Despite initial tepid anticipation, audiences found out that the third Ice Age is just as good as the second, if not better, and that it's a fun way to spend an afternoon with the family. Oh, and little competition, as you said. Thanks to its summer weekdays, it will likely pass the first film, and maybe even the second, even it its subsequent holds prove less impressive.

    As for its chances at beating "Up?" None at all. At all. Realize that "Ice Age 3" has done what many uber-blockbusters do and open on the same day in all worldwide territories. However, the only major territories "Up" has opened in are Russia and Mexico, and they aren't even that major. All the rest are minor countries. France gets it at the end of this month, Germany in September, UK in October, and Japan in December. "Up" has so, so much more to make overseas, and it's really jumping the gun to make comparisons before one film has opened in any major territories.

  • kdogg

    @thecheckspot: no you didn't. all you showed, was that she's been whored out by her parents since she was small. your argument would be that Lindsay Lohan was actually an actress, or Lizzie McGuire (whatever her name is), or Hannah Montana. All whored out by adults who see them as their retirement portfolio. While that may garner some sympathy for her, it doesn't show she's earned anything. You didn't know who she was until she was hired, for her looks (certainly not her sarah michelle gellar acting), to play a cheerleader on a poorly written tv show that fanboys flock to.

  • Vince

    Quick question for you guys? What do you think about the supposed "Ice Age 4" synopsis that was rumored a while back?

    For those of you who are unfamiliar with the bit of info, it said that the main characters were supposed to be frozen for thousands of years until they ended being thawed in the present time- so it'd be a normal culture clash comedy but with the Ice Age gang instead.

    I thought it would be a cool idea; I'm getting sick of the setting after three films, and I wish they would just keep the core trio (and Scrat) instead of all these new characters who are largely unfunny and boring (Ellie adds absolutely nothing to the movie whatsoever). It's basically becoming a low rent "Shrek" rip-off now.

    Wow, I'm discussing the politics of "Ice Age", does anyone really care? I'll stop now.

  • athar

    @The Check Spot:
    I think in the case of this Harry Potter, we need to forget the past trends. Reasons:
    1.) The movie is getting better reviews than any of the first 5 movies. That is one good reason to assume that it might not follow past trends( If i aint mistaken, Star Trek also didnt follow past trends this summer... same argument right??)

    2.) This is the second last movie of the Franchise and and so people will not want to miss this simply because they know that if they skip this one, then they might be sixes and sevens when they watch the last movie. This is one of the most watched Franchises in the World of Cinema and so all those who have watched the previous movies, will definitely complete the whole series.

    3.) Delaying the movie by around 8months was actually a smart move by Warner Bros.
    The hype and curiousity has increased even more.

    This is why i feel the movie will reach $350 mil mark. I think the 5 day numbers will give us a clear picture of how much this movie can make.

  • athar

    @Bustray: You feel 2012 will be close to the $300mil mark??

  • TheCheckSpot

    @athar: I have to say nice job with backing up your statement. I can see your argument, and it actually makes sense. Using Star Trek as an example certainly helps. My chief concern is how many new fans will HP6 get. It's still pretty amazing that the sixth film in the series is expected to do so well. When was the last time if any that that happened. I would not be surprised at $350M in fact I would be happy for it. But will the movie get repeat business, which also could help it. This may be the best of the books, but it is also the least action packed since the book mainly dealt with flashbacks, and also more character driven material. But again, with the Star Trek comparison, that might not hurt the film too much. I don't know, but you have pushed me more into the $350M thinking now.

  • TheCheckSpot

    @kdogg: Hayden's mother was a soap opera actress, her father is a fire chief. I looked up the backgrounds of her parents, interestingly enough, the moment her career took off where she was making tons of money is after she was 18, so her parents won't get the cash. So, her parents screwed up royally if the intention was to "whore" her out. Though, again, she doesn't have the tabloid nightmare that is Lindsay Lohan (who was a talented young actress that made so many bad life decisions that she spiralled out of control, some blame can go on her parents, some on her friends, and some on her. She is a fascinating Shakespearean tragedy that will probably be studied for a long time). Hayden spent most of her early career as a voice over artist as well as on a soap opera (just like mommy, so it seems that it was less a whoring out and more of a bring your daughter to work, permanently). Now, when she appeared in Heroes, she did get a lot of nervous teenage and young adult boys in a bit of a tither, but alas, Claire is not a very sexual character in the series. She wears normal clothing and the producers never put in front and center and said "Look, this chick is hot, oh and she's a hero." So, she didn't use her sexuality to advance her career at all. I'm not a Hayden supporter in the least bit, I'm just against misogyny in any form, and kdogg, yours is a classic case. Is it because these women are successful and they won't sleep with you, so you do the classic male response by calling them whores or broads and whatever negative term you used. All you did was make me go research Hayden and discover that she has a respectable career and made some decent choices whether they were choices her parents made or her. Now, her parents are amazingly out of the spotlight. Why didn't Mom use her daughter's fame to get on a reality show or resurrect her acting career? Where are the lawsuits from the parents? They actually come across as an average "Hollywood" family as opposed to money grubber attention whores (I used this term to describe someone who desires attention as opposed as a sexual connotation). Full disclosure: The father was arrested for "domestic abuse" for allegedly hitting his wife, but charges got dropped and nothing like that has appeared again. So, where are the parents? Kdogg, I know what I'm saying won't reach you. That's fine. There is something deep seated within you whether it be your misogyny or your homophobia (that's from a different thread), but you aren't using fact and logic in your arguments, just pure emotion. Now, you may seem right, but in 200 years after we've died out, and the aliens are excavating are documents, I hope that they see that we weren't all misogynistic xenophobes that viewed their kind as shape shifting robots. Sorry for writing so much, I'll be more succinct next time.

  • Roger

    312 mil$ worldwide on a budget of 90 mil$ for Ice Age 3 (in 12 days). Wow. I was never extremely into this series, but seems like for some reason the people love it...

  • Bustray

    @athar: Yes, hype for this film has really built, and the fact that it's opening close to Thanksgiving could give it the benefit of some solid holds. It could end with around $260-$270 million, I think.

  • athar

    @Bustray: Before i saw the trailer, even i had it making $250 mil+.. But then somehow, after seeing all that action and effects filled trailer, i got a feeling that there is something missing in it. I just dont know what. It was the same feeling which i had got when i watched the trailer of Terminator Salvation for the first time. Well, lets hope i am proved wrong this time. I am a fan of the destructive movies which Roland Emmerich has made(I have lost count of how many times i have seen Independence Day and Godzilla)

  • Connor

    My predictions for harry potter on midnight, wednesday, thursday, and weekend
    Midnight- $25
    Wednesday-$50 Total-$75
    Thursday-$40 Total-$115
    Weekend-$110 Total-$225
    Harry Potter 6 is getting great reviews. And a lot of people love harry potter. And it will be the biggest harry potter ever.
    Can it take on Transformers 2. Both great franchises. except hp5, hp5 sucked. Lets see.

  • Jacob

    48 comments!! I'm sorry but I cannot read that much, don't have enough time xD.

    Bruno: Surprised by the dangerous friday to saturday drop, from 14 to 8 is really something to be worried about. I don't think this will make over 85 million domestically, and no idea about internationally.

    Ice Age 3: Virtually matched the 2nd's 120 million 12 day total. Of course, 3 years ago prices were much lower and there was no 3D boom, so Ice Age 3 is still running slower than the previous. Buuuuuuuuuut, Fox just can't be anything else than happy: overseas the movie has had one of the most massive first 2 weeks in history: 323 million in a mere 12 days. This would be expected and normal numbers for sequels of very popular franchises such as Harry Potter, Star Wars, Spiderman, Indiana Jones, Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean ..... not for Ice Age. I'm just shocked, 323 million in this short period is simply something astronomical. With these numbers is now a fact that it will surpass the 651 million final worldwide gross of The Meltdown, and maybe it could even reach the 700 million mark, making it the 3rd most succesful movie of the year behind Harry Potter 6 and Transformers 2 (or maybe the 4th, if Avatar surprises at the end of the year).

    Transformers 2: After a heavy 61% decline, the movie stabilizes with a 43% drop. It is very difficult to predict if this one will or won't reach the 400 million mark at the end domestically, because if it has a normal behaviour for sequels in the next weeks, it will end very, very close to that number; you just don't know if that will be over it, or under it. If TF2 is lucky it will, if the next declines are big, it just won't. But 390 million are now definetely a certain fact. Overseas it jumped to 365 million, and it's just now a mere 4 million under of the previous, and, by the time I'm writing this, it should already have done that. I believe this will end with abot 840-870 million worldwide.

  • Jacob

    And as for Harry Potter:

    I think fans have just waited so much after the surprising decision of Warner to move it from Nov 2008 to July 2009, that the start will be gigantic, even more than HP5, but not as high as Transformers 2. There's just nothing in the Harry Potter franchise history that would make us think it's gonna make 200 or more million over 5 days, or that it would explode with over 60 million in the opening day as TF2 did. But I have a feeling, and this one is definetely gonna be bigger than HP5, and that it could also become the first Harry Potter movie since the first one to surpass the 300 million barrier domestically and the first one ever to surpass the magical 1B worldwide.

    My instinct says:

    Wednesday: 50 million
    Thursday: 24 million
    Friday: 29 million
    Saturday: 33 million
    Sunday: 24 million
    Total Friday to Sunday: 86 million
    Total Wednesday to Sunday: 160 million

    Total Domestic: 325 million
    Total Overseas: 680 million
    Total Worldwide: 1.005 million

  • John

    I'm sorry Bruno fans but I just don't see this movie making more than $60 million. Maybe even 55. If people considering seeing Bruno put it off by one week to see Harry Potter, they'll have two new rated R comedies to take a chance on. It won't overcome the bad buzz and the competition. Forget about family friendly second run theaters.

  • Adam

    Word is Harry Potter broke The Dark Knight midnight show record, Im still doubting that it will hold up in the long run. The die-hard Potter fans are definitely seeing it but unfortunately most of the casual ones (that have read the books) are going to be very disappointed. The 2 largest scenes at the end of the book have been "omitted" from this movie. The funeral and large scale battle were removed because the funeral didnt go with the feel of the movie and the battle would seem "redundant" apparantly with another one in the seventh movie. That statement makes no sense to me because LotR had a large scale battle in all 3 movies and they did just fine. Granted it has already started off better than I had thought it would but with the enormous changes from the book it may fall faster than the previous movies with the loss of old fans. One thing I am expecting to help with HP6 slightly is the fact that it has been commended by the Vatican and religion has been holding back many movie-goers (but that didnt help The DaVinci Code too much). I guess well see how it does this week.

  • John

    @Adam: I think it's hilarious that you describe people who have read the Harry Potter books as casual fans. I didn't read any Star Wars books but I was fan enough to see the complete series. I'm starting to think greater communication with the internet will make all fan movies somewhat frontloaded: opening bigger and falling faster.

  • Stiggy

    The problem Bruno had was that Roland Emmerich's 2012 was originally going to be released on July 10th. However Sony decedid to postpone 2012 to a less competitive enviroment, November 13th, where it's biggest competition was Disney's A Christmas Carol.

    People were under the impression that 2012 was coming out and was sad about the postpone.