Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 9 – Jan. 11, 2009
COMMENTS
Clint Eastwood beat the tar out of Hathaway and Hudson...
Clint Eastwood clearly isn't done yet. Gran Torino cracked $10k per theater and won the weekend going away. I had it doing better than most projections, but I definitely didn't see the win coming. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 0 Weeks In A Row
1. Gran Torino
I'm actually happy it won, though of course I look like a dunce now. This little dandy has made $40m on a budget of a little less than that. So it could end up a modest financial winner, depending on how the international market responds to an an angry American.
Result: 29.0 million (My rank: #2, $14.7m off)
2. Bride Wars
I was dialed in on the money. It's pretty much Fool's Gold all over again, though somehow it's a worse film I think.
Result: 21.5 million (My rank: #1, $.8m off)
3. The Unborn
A very nice result for The Unborn, clearly the horror fans were starved. It was either that or the poster.
Result: 21.0 million (My rank: #3, $7.8m off)
Where the hell did Bedtime Stories go? Marley and Me has made $120m so far, and I can't imagine dog trainers are too expensive these days.
Result: 11.3 million (My rank: #5, $.3m off)
Button needs a big night at the Globes. And then a big night at The Oscars. Then maybe we can talk about banking on DVD… but as it stands now it's a financial debacle for Paramount.
Result: 9.4 million (My rank: #6, $.9m off)
It must have gotten moderately poor word of mouth because it dropped 58% this weekend. Either that or word of Sandler showing up at The People's Choice Awards slipped out.
Result: 8.5 million (My rank: #4, $3.3m off)
7. Valkyrie
This is still getting ads. But in funnier news did anyone see the Frost/Nixon parody on SNL? Classic stuff, and it includes a Pete Travers burn too.
Result: 6.6 million (My rank: #7, $1.3m off)
8. Yes Man
Nobody nails the back end like The Oracle. Hmmm, strike that last comment.
Result: 6.1 million (My rank: #8, $0.3m off)
This little film had the second highest per theater average in the top ten. The only problem? Only 724 theaters.
Result: 5.6 million (My rank: #, $m off)
10. Seven Pounds
You gave it your all Seven Pounds. But when the smoke clears you're both an artistic and financial victim. If Carrey, Sandler, and Will Smith can't rock the box office what chance does anyone have? It's a strange new world.
Result: 3.9 million (My rank: #9, $1.2m off)
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Mall Cop will probably run away with the following weekend. The only other possibilty is My Bloody Valentine and the early buzz on that one is terrible.
@The Vendetta: To go along with early buzz on Valentine, Lionsgate isn't even screening it for critics and they even screened The Spirit. Doesn't bode well… especially considering it is in 3-D and I have never known a studio not to screen a 3-D movie for critics.
All I can say is that we have a load of awful looking movies coming up, I only see hope in Underworld: Rise of the Lycans coming out the weekend after.
I saw the Frost/Other People skit on SNL and it WAS hilarious! I'm glad they didn't take the easy route and use out host Neil Patrick Harris for a Milk parody.
Interesting. I hated Gran Torino, but love that it won over Bride Wars and Generic-Rip-Off-Asian-Horror Part 2000. Torino's production budget was about 25 million (and seriously, to what..) but it's had a lot of marketing…so I'd say it was at about 40 total. It'll profit, because it'll continue to do well among the older audience and through award season. Benjamin Button is inching closer to its production budget of 150$. If it can reach that domestically, and 100-125 abroad, it might break even after the splits settle. It'll probably profit after DVD sales also.
Next Weekend: I'm willing to bet that Mall Cop and Bloody Valentine do well. The kids market is semi-crowded right now, so I'm not too sure about Hotel for Dogs. The thing that Mall Cop has going for it is its PG rating with an interest from older audiences who like Kevin James.
Notorious is in roughly 1500 theaters, and will do very very well. It'll probably hold well also. It's a shame its not going to be supersaturated, cause I think we could see a 30+ weekend from it in that situation. Biggie is a rap icon, and the film appeals to the teen and young adult demographics + the urban demographic (who showed their strength with Not Easily Broken). Defiance is also going to be in 1500, and as a WW2 drama with a bankable star, I feel like it'll do very well.
what about defiance??? i have been waiting for this movie for forever! how many theatres is the movie going to be shown in???
i work at a theatre and i was seriously considering off for this upcoming weekend because of notorious! the movie is going to be huge. paul blart is going to be a profitable movie because of kevin james, and i see movies for free and i refuse to waste my time watching my bloody valentine…the sad thing is people will actually watch it, but it will be hurt because of the "R" rating!
As for this past weekend, my girl suckered me in to see bride wars and the only positive thing about the film was hudson's sexiness, gran torino was a great film. i loved clint's transformation through the film.The fact that he kept his bad a** nature but grew to love the children next door was beautiful .it was amazing acting on eastwood's part, but the boy playing thao was sad. did not watch the unborn because it looks lame. cant wait for defiance…might be taking a road trip
My Bloody Valentine… eh. I don't know. Maybe $10-15 million, but not more. "The Unborn" just made a modest amount this weekend, so those "starved" horror fans might have been sated. And while more than one of my friends were talking about seeing "The Unborn," nobody I know wants to see "My Bloody Valentine." And it would have actually helped if "My Bloody Valentine" had been released, you know, on Valentine's Day (the studio is forever going to hold a grudge against "Friday the 13th" for stealing that spot).
I feel that "Notorious" is going to do really well, at least its first weekend. I'm going to predict higher than the average person on BOM, at least.
Defiance, I think, won't do as well. Bad WOM. And not enough theaters to get #1.
"Paul Blart" could do well, but its name is SOOOO effing unappealing! It sounds too similar to "blah."
Gran Torino beat Bride Wars! There is hope for humanity!
But then again there's Paul Blart and Hotel for Dogs next week, so maybe I shouldn't get too excited.
I'm glad Clint beat out the Bride Wars. I imagine you will see films like Slumdog Millionaire will slowly creep up into the top 10 in the next few weeks. The award buzz for that is sending people to see what the fuss is all about. Mall Cop will likely take the MLK weekend, with the 3D horror My Bloody Valentine. Hotel for Dogs wil fare well b/c of the long weekend, and Torino will continue to do good. We won't have a Cloverfield like last year, but Mall Cop could bow out with a nice 20-25 million, with Bloody Vanentine getting 15-20.