Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 7 – Jan. 9, 2011
COMMENTS
'True Grit' managed to hold off the 'Fockers'
Let me first begin by saying… How 'bout dem Seahawks?!?!? And while the Seahawks were pulling off a victory no one would have predicted a certain favorite film of mine was pulling off a victory Laremy predicted. Let's get to the results…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Weeks In A Row
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| True Grit not only managed to hold off Little Fockers over the weekend, it increased its lead on Saturday and Sunday as the Coen brothers now have their first $100 million film. As a matter of fact, they now have their first $110 million film. Prior to this weekend's results the Coens' highest grossing film was their Best Picture winning picture No Country for Old Men with $74 million. Consider that number skunked. Along with Laremy's accurate placement prediction, Colin was much closer with the monetary prediction with a spot on $15 million pick. Nice work. Result: $15 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $17.319 million was $2.319m off for a percentage error of 15.46%. | |
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And then there was Little Fockers. I don't have much to say about this film, but I do wonder… Did any of you actually contribute to the $123 million this film has made so far?
Result: $13.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $14.666 million, which is $0.966m off for a 7.05% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $14.666 million, which is $0.966m off for a 7.05% error.
It wasn't a very good movie, but the fact it has a 4% RottenTomatoes score versus the 17% Country Strong has points out a major flaw with that site's ranking system.
Kid had the closest user prediction on the board for this one with a $9.7 million guess. However, Laremy remained ever so closer.
Result: $10.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.264 million, which is $0.564m off for a 5.27% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.264 million, which is $0.564m off for a 5.27% error.
4. TRON: Legacy
Any one ready to predict a sequel yet? Legacy is now up to $147 million domestically on a $170 million budget. Add the estimated $110 million from overseas so far and do you have enough to make another one? DVD and Blu-ray will surely add to that tally.
Result: $9.8 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.58 million, which is $0.78m off for a 7.96% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.58 million, which is $0.78m off for a 7.96% error.
5. Black Swan
Black Swan has now made $61 million. Can you believe that? Who would have ever thought the smaller budgeted indie films and Oscar contenders would have done so well at the box-office this year?
Result: $8.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $6.069 million, which is $2.231m off for a 26.88% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $6.069 million, which is $2.231m off for a 26.88% error.
Here it is, the Lifetime movie that had stars too big not to release it in theaters, but this movie is a travesty. One woman wrote in my review that she "won't pay attention to any other reviews that Brad writes." All I can say is that if she has found a critic she disagrees with so much she may want to stick around, might be an easy way to tell what films she'll like and won't, just do the opposite of what I suggest.
Result: $7.3 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.12 million, which is $0.18m off for a 2.47% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.12 million, which is $0.18m off for a 2.47% error.
7. The Fighter
The Fighter was barely edged out by Country Strong but has now reached $57 million. It dipped only 30% this weekend and continues to hold well and I know a lot of you have seen it and loved it, there should be some cheering going on during the Oscars this year, or are all of you Social Network fans?
Result: $7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.487 million, which is $0.513m off for a 7.33% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.487 million, which is $0.513m off for a 7.33% error.
This film continues to remain in the hunt for the Best Picture front-runner position with Oscar pundits and someone wrote me this weekend saying, "It again proves that given a really good story, really good camera work, really good casting and good acting… you can make a great movie!" My mother told me something similar after I suggested she go see it. Have you seen it? What did you think? Best Picture?
Result: $6.811 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.735 million, which is $0.076m off for a 1.12% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $6.735 million, which is $0.076m off for a 1.12% error.
9. Yogi Bear
We move from Oscar talk to discussing box-office once again as Yogi Bear's $75 million added to the Warner Bros. 2010 tally as the studio broke the all-time industry worldwide box-office record with a 2010 gross of $4.814 billion, which surpasses the prior record of $4.010 billion (set by Warner Bros. in 2009).
Result: $6.81 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
10. Tangled
I can't imagine Disney is going to ignore princesses for too much longer as Tangled has now made over $175 million. Along with merchandising that is just a number you can't ignore.
Result: $5.2 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $6.062 million, which is $0.862m off for a 16.58% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $6.062 million, which is $0.862m off for a 16.58% error.
There isn't much to talk about outside of the top ten other than The Social Network returning to theaters with a 600 theater expansion and adding $650,000 to its coffers.
This means we have The Green Hornet and The Dilemma to talk about next week. Are people so desperate for a movie they will support either of these to lofty results? Discuss below.
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Nice work for True Grit, Black Swan and The King's Speech (which is still enjoying the biggest PTA in the Top Ten) and for showing that you don't have to spend hundreds of millions to make a movie people want to see repeatedly and talk about well.
Has there been any word on a Tron sequel? My opinion is that it's performance really has not been anything special given all the time and hype for it. But if G.I Joe can get a sequel after only grossing $300 million on a $175 million plus P&A budget then I guess Tron could as well.
I'm hoping to see The King's Speech this coming weekend.
As to next week, I have utterly no interest in The Dilemma but would imagine it's the safe bet for the top spot. Actually the trailer for The Green Hornet made me want to see it. It looked fun. But the many delays and grumbles behind the scenes don't really bode very well and neither does the January release.
No word yet on a Tron sequel, but I think there will be one. A script has been in developement since april; because, this is Disney's new management philosophy of brand integration in action. Tron can be monetized through theme park attractions and merchandise that will help build the Disney brand. Though they may be hesitant, even a stumble at the box office would probably turn into a wash, financially, so why not try? Bottom line: both G.I. Joe and Tron can sell videogames, and toys, and etc., while Tron could be huge if it can become part of the Disney brand experience.
The issue with Rotten Tomatoes in a film can at 85% (Unstoppable) but all the good reviews have it as 3 stars (average) whereas another film can get way more great reviews, but sit at 80%.
I really dont understand all the hate towards Season of the Witch, since it looks like an entairtening film…Is it really as bad as Vampires Suck?? Seriously
I haven't seen Vampires Suck, but Season of the Witch is just a direct-to-video movie that managed to have big enough names and budget to go to theaters. This is to say it's a harmless time waster, but not the awful movie it has been painted to be.
You can read my full review here.
I agree with you, it doesnt look like a really good movie, but its at least entairtening..And by the way, what did you think about Claire Foy's performance as the witch since most said she was pretty good..
Next weekend will be very interesting. Two big releases + MLK weekend. I am hoping for both to crack 30M on 4 days.
The Dilemma – 28.5/34.4M
The Green Hornet – 26.3/30.2M
Personally my guess is The Dilemma can make around $35 million during MLK weekend (People love Vince Vaughn for reasons I don't understand.) and since early word of mouth of Green Hornet is surprisingly decent, I say about $38 million 4 day weekend.
theres two more trons to come….both animated on disney xd a tron miniseries in the autumn n tron uprising series in 2012 starrin voice of elijah wood
Not the same thing as a big budget feature film.
But an attempt to integrate Tron into the Disney brand that will most probably, perhaps inevitably, lead to a motion picture sequel. IMHO.
Called that shit! And my Jets won yesterday. Not a bad weekend at all.
Next weekend, probably gonna be a close race. Never thought I'd say this, but I actually want to see Green Hornet.
Finally True Grit is number 1 movie. Green Hornet will take number 1 next weekend & it stays as nr.1 movie for two weeks. Then hopefully The Rite takes the number 1 slot. Do you think Rite has a chance of winning the box office crown?
For those who have issues with Rotten Tomatoes, I suggest Metacritic since they give the reviews a score rather than a yes or no. The Town (94%-RT, 70-MC) is a good example, an OK movie but by no means that good (i.e. 7 pts higher than Inception) despite being a cliched, predictable heist movie. Though in the end everyone has their own opinion. (Transformers made $400 mil!!)
I was reading on Box Office Mojo that Fox Searchlight will be expanding Black Swan into 2000+ locations on the 14th.
Anyone wanna speculate how high it might ultimately wind up going? $61 million already and not running out of steam yet.
Depends on how the PTA holds up and whether Natalie keeps winning Best Actress awards (she'll easily win the Globe), but I'd say $100 million is definitely on the table.
I'd say $85m is guaranteed, 90 is very possible and there is a little chance at 100. Ultimately it's going to depend on its holds in the next 2-3 weeks.
No matter what, it already made a lot more than I ever thought it could make. Prior to release, I was thinking $45 million at best. Silly.
Great that True Grit finally won, and I'm very impressed at the numbers Black Swan continues to put up. Same for The King's Speech, but I didn't like it nearly as much as Black Swan. I'll also just throw out there since it's been out of the discussion for a while that Harry Potter made another $2.4 million this weekend and is now up to $287 million. So it should finish in the low $290s, the same neighborhood as Goblet of Fire and Order of the Phoenix (actually probably slightly ahead of them), which is better than it looked like doing a month or so ago.
Regarding the Best Picture conversation…My top film of the year is Inception, and while I still have to see 127 Hours and Another Year, and rewatch The Social Network and Black Swan, I'm confident after watching Inception again on DVD that it will stay at the top. But of course it has no chance to win Best Pic so I'm pulling for The Social Network. Actually if there was another film I could pull for it would be True Grit. It has grown on me greatly and I definitely plan on seeing it again (I've seen it twice already), and while I probably wouldn't put it ahead of The Social Network, it's just such a damn great film (plus it's a successful western and I love the genre), that it would be nice if it could pull it off. It would be a Crash-like situation if it did though, so I'm not holding out hope. What I am hoping a bit more realistically for is Hailee Steinfeld winning Best Supporting Actress. The Fighter is a great film with some fantastic performances, but I wouldn't place it in the same conversation as Inception, The Social Network, Black Swan, Toy Story, and True Grit. And honestly, I would probably be pretty pissed if The King's Speech won. As I've said, I thought it was a very well-made film, and I enjoyed it enough as a one-time viewing, but I don't think I'll watch it again any time soon. It does feel a bit stuffy and pretentious to me, plus it's definitely an old-school Academy style film, as opposed to say Inception, Black Swan, and The Social Network. I guess you could say the same about True Grit, but only three traditional westerns have ever won Best Picture, so I'm not sure they love the genre all that much.
Back to box office, next weekend The Green Hornet and The Dilemma should be pretty close with around $25 million each.
I was hoping to see Blue Valentine have similar success to Black Valentine in it's first week of limited expansion, unfortunate.
clearly i meant Black Swan. Wow that's embarrassing.
I contributed to Little Fockers' tally…I'm sorry, it won't happen again, promise. (Terrible movie, btw).
Predictions for next week? $28 million for Green Hornet maybe $29 for The Dilemma? Green Hornet looks really cool and feels like the first event picture in a while, but it seems like it'll get weak reviews. Dilemma looks bad IMO but Vince Vaughn & Kevin James are on a winning streak box office wise, plus this is the first comedy in a while (yes, I'm aware that Fockers is technically a comedy but if you've seen that movie…you'd agree that it's most definitely NOT a comedy) and will open/hold accordingly
AMEN, good sir… to your "Little Fockers NOT being a comedy" statement.
It was honestly mentally and physically painful how excruciatingly unfunny that movie was. I couldn't stop cringing, and burying my forehead into my hand as I watched in sadness, the clearly bored actors onscreen attempting to be funny, but just…failing every time.
Poor me. :(
You know why Oscar films are performing so well? Because there's nothing else to see right now.
RT probably is the best ratings website there is. They have a tomatometer and a ratings meter just like iMDB. Plus there's a user rating too.
"You know why Oscar films are performing so well? Because there's nothing else to see right now."
This!
…and with the Green Bay win, Seattle avoids Atlanta and go to Chicago. The luck continues.
Way to go True Grit! As for my early predictions for MLK Weekend:
The Green Hornet – $39.75 mill 3-Day / $52.25 mill 4-Day
The Dilemma – $29.5 mill 3-Day / $38.25 mill 4-Day
===*ATTENTION MR. BRAD BEVRET*===
I did not predict $10.1 million for "WITCH", I predicted $10.1 mill for "COUNTRY STRONG". I can't be credited, letting that one slide.
I see that "KID" got the closest call, so everyone bow to him instead :) haha. Toss him some kudos.
Anyway… Like I said on Thursday, GREEN HORNET is gonna mop the floor on MLK weekend and DILEMMA will take over the 3 days as well. There is absolutely nothing FRESH out there right now, and I believe audiences are in desperate search of a genuinely decent non-sequel movie. ya know?
I know I am :) cannot WAIT for GH.
Ah ha, thank you sir for your honesty. I have corrected the error.
I can't help but think that "The Green Hornet" has been underrated in terms of box office potential, mostly because it seems to fit in a genre that isn't represented by other films right now. I'm saying it gets close to $40M over the weekend.
And are they ever going to put "127 Hours" into wide release? It was the best film I saw last year and I've been telling my friends to see it, but we're all still waiting for it to arrive in the theater here.
I was surprised to hear that, too. No Country for Old Men seemed to be all the rage a couple years back. I'm a bit disappointed to see they don't have any films in development listed on IMDb; they've had such an enjoyable run these last few years.
Are you talking about the Coen brothers? They have 1. Suburbicon 2. Gambit 3. The Yiddish Policemen's Union
Probably more in developement