Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 29 – Jan. 31, 2010
COMMENTS
The remarkable streak continues, that's seven in a row for Avatar.
My new goal for the year: hit the number one movie each and every weekend. Sure, there will be some tough calls, but if I take my vitamins, keep hitting the gym, and study hard, I know I can do it. It's like George Michael said, you gotta have faith.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 14 Weeks In A Row
1. Avatar
JM's sparkly $29.7 call led the pack. As for those of y'all that had Edge of Darkness beating Avatar… well, that didn't happen.
Programming note: Avatar's card on The Oracle logo will take the top spot once it is number one domestically, because that's what we predict around here. As it's only $6m away, it's looking pretty likely to appear on Thursday's prediction column.
Result: 30.0 million (My rank: #1, $3.3m off)
Not a great result for Mad Mel. The R rating didn't help matters, nor does the $80m production budget. Could it be that people are "over" Mel Gibson?
Dan Tralder's $17.2m call was spooky accurate here. Well played.
Result: 17.1 million (My rank: #2, $4.4m off)
3. When in Rome
Still, less than two million people saw it. The budget had to have been over $50m, right? So hopefully they can still find a way to lose money on this project.
Result: 12.0 million (My rank: #3, $1.4m off)
I'm not sure why I was so down on this product, but I think it had something to do with the weekend as a whole. The weekend dropped 16 percent from last weekend, I thought it would be closer to a 20 percent dip. Live and learn.
Tooth Fairy stands at $42m in revenue on a $48m budget. They will need a few more efforts like this one to profit.
Result: 10.0 million (My rank: #6, $3.3m off)
By this time last year four different movies had taken a weekend. This year? Only Avatar. As for The Book of Eli, well, they need another $120m from ticket and/or DVD sales. Decent movie though.
Result: 8.7 million (My rank: #5, $1.1m off)
6. Legion
I'm impressed they made this on a production budget of $26m. That means they are still alive and kicking where the profit game is concerned, though a 61 percent drop this weekend wasn't ideal.
Result: 6.8 million (My rank: #4, $1.6m off)
Whether you like the movie or not, we can all agree this was released with very little skill. It should have been a November movie, no question about it.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #7, $0.7m off)
I'm a little sad they are fast-tracking the sequel to Sherlock Holmes, but only because I wanted to see what Guy Ritchie did with Lobo. Anyone out there read Lobo? One of my favorite characters as a kid.
Result: 4.5 million (My rank: #8, $0.8m off)
It will hit $400m worldwide cume; clearly these little Chipmunks have global appeal.
Result: 4.0 million (My rank: #10, $.8m off)
10. It's Complicated
$160m on a budget of $85m. But with Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin hosting the Oscars, can they expect a little DVD bump?
Result: 3.7 million (My rank: #9, $.1m off)
How say you? Any surprises? Was Mel Gibson never truly bankable? Is Avatar guaranteed eight straight? Did you see When in Rome? Comment away, the floor is yours!
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when you make the avatar poster the first one can you pick a different Avatar poster?
Avatar is locked for first place next weekend. I never saw Edge of Darkness beating Avatar, but only $17M?! Warner Bros. has to be upset.
Next Weekend: Dear John and From Paris With Love have 0 chance of being first place. Avatar is locked.
@cineJAB: Agreed, a different Avatar poster would be appreciated. The current one will clash with the Oracle backdrop.
EOD's $17M is surprising to me, only because I figured it would do even less than this. It could be unique to my social circle, but most of my family & friends absolutely cannot stand Mel Gibson, and would avoid seeing this movie simply because he's in it.
Avatar wont take a 9th weekend but most of next weeks openers look like they'll be low pullers. Just depends on Avatars drop.
I don't see "Dear John" or "From Paris With Love" taking #1 next week. They might have solid openings in the $16-18 million range, and while "Dear John" could take off and do low $20million numbers, "Avatar" will make somewhere around $25 million next weekend, so hoorah for Cameron & crew.
Great, just what we need Cameron's ego inflating a bit more. Don't get me wrong Avatar isn't a terrible movie, I actually liked the film but it shows signs of James Cameron going George Lucas all over our asses and I'm absolutely terrified at the prospect of his follow up after the overwhelmingly success Avatar has had at the box office.
Just to add my 2 cents to the Avatar IMAX surcharge thread. Does anyone in their right mind actually think EOD, or When in Rome would have made more box office this weekend if they would have been offered on IMAX and 3D? I think they would have made LESS, as people balked at the higher ticket prices for these non-event films.
I can't believe that Kristen Bell's really bad romantic comedy beat out Amy Adam's bad romantic comedy. My conclusions are:
1. The floor for a bad romatic comedy with recognizable stars is $9 million (Leap Year).
2. Kristen Bell is a little more popular than Amy Adams/Rome is more popular than Ireland (for a romantic getaway).
3. Amy Adams needs to star in a sexy roll in a sexy movie to amp up her perceived sex appeal…or stick to Disney. Or give up on being a leading lady.
The Tooth Fairy has no competition for the forseeable future. Will it just plod along?
I don't know what an Oscar bounce for The Blind Side would look like, but if it looks like an extra $5 or $10 million, TBS might pass Star Trek! Whether it happens or not, just saying it might is unbelievable! (no pun intended)
Congratulations to Book of Eli for being this years first $30 million+ opener, but what movie will be 2010's first to $100 million?
@mfan: Though it is going to be close, I think Alice in Wonderland will just pull it out as the first $100M film of 2010, and Shutter Island may make it to that post really close behind. Alice has the IMAX and 3-D benefit which will lead to $100M in about 10 days, but I see that, unless it's a bad film (which it could be because the book is freakin' awesome), Shutter Island will just edge over $100M before its box office run is over sometime in March.
I think Avatar will suffer its biggest drop of its run so far since we got the Super Bowl to take into account and Sunday numbers are horrible on that Sunday. I don't think Dear John or From Paris With Love will have enough to take the #1 spot. I see Avatar just coming in a shy under $20M, but may bounce back over $20M for following weekend.
i'm bummed about ritchie not being able to do lobo, it seems like such a perfect fit, and lobo is awesome, real shame.
"Dear John" will probably be pretty solid, and when I use the words pretty solid in conjunction with a romance, I mean $15-18mil.
"From Paris With Love" will do very poorly. Why? Very little interest in it. John Travolta has more hits than misses and can rarely carry a movie by himself. Yes, it may be from the director of "Taken," but Taken had a great premise and a straightforward execution that really made it a fun movie to watch and rewatch.
And then its R-rating. This will be the FIFTH weekend in a row that an R-rated action/thriller film has opened at the box office. First there was "Daybreakers," then "Book of Eli," then "Legion," then "Edge of Darkness." Even EOD was overkill; that might be why it didn't make as much as we expected. But a 5th weekend in a row will just be too much. The target demographic is torn between five movies; they'll probably give up and go see Avatar again.
Speaking of which, Avatar is guaranteed $22mil. It'll probably get more, though. Although it's Superbowl weekend, it'll probably get an Oscar boost to balance out the bad Sunday hold, meaning that a drop in the teens is once again likely. And it'll pass Titanic on Wednesday, I'm guessing.
Next weekend:
1.Avatar-$23.2 (-23%)-no doubt; 1 more weekend.
2.Dear John-$15.5 (N/A)-the biggest surprise at next week's box office.
3.From Paris With Love-$9.9 (N/A)-well, it's by the director of 'Taken'.
4.Edge of Darkness-$9.5* (-44%)-what a disappointment.
5.When in Rome-$8.2 (-32%)-shouldn't this drop more?
6.The Book of Eli-$7.9 (-10%)-this spot is not much of a competition.
7.Legion-$5.2 (-24%)-neither is this…
8.The Tooth Fairy-$4.9 (-51%)-its weekday numbers are bad.
9.Up in the Air-$3.8 (+41%)-welcome back, Oscar contender!
10.Sherlock Holmes-$2.9 (-35%)-the DVD is coming out soon.
Bonus Prediction:
13.The Blind Side-$1.4 (-53%)-and the best actress Oscar-hopefully-doesn't go to…
@Vince (Not Vance): Dear John, because of sold-out Avatar showings, will be #2.
MY PREDICTION FOR THE TOP 5:
Avatar – 25.7M
Dear John – 20.8M
From Paris With Love – 12.8M
Edge Of Darkness – 11.4M
When In Rome – 6.5M
It looks like Paris will suffer the most next week which is a shame because it has a good marketing campaign. Hopefully WOM can push it to respectable final numbers. I also see alot of you underestimating DJ. Never understimate the poswer of teenage girls when it comes to teen romance. Evereyone should have already learned that when New Moon made over 140M opening weekend.
Avatar's performance so far is astronomical and I have been thinking even if it's not this year, but if it gets re-released next year is it possible it can reach a BILLION dollars U.S domstic ? I think so.
@wrongturn687: Why on EARTH would Avatar need a re-release?
@wrongturn687:
What's WOM?
And I agree FULLY w/your top 5.
@John Debono:
You mean like Laser Cats? LOL Give the man some credit, he can't take himself too seriously, if he takes part in a SNL skit making fun of his own movies.
You people are high on Dear John. I mean Channing Tatum might be the worst actor going right now.
@wrongturn687: Why on EARTH would Avatar need a re-release? I'm not saying Avatar needs to be re-relased, but Fox is obviously gonna want to bank on this movie more in the future especially considering how successful it was in Imax 3D. I expect it to be right back in theatres December of this year, but if Fox skips out on it I would be very suprised.
@wrongturn687:
What's WOM?
And I agree FULLY w/your top 5. WOM is word of mouth something I think Paris could be quite successful of if it delivers what it promises, but it deffentially won't be the next Taken. Also just because Tatum is a bad actor doesn't mean that teenage girls don't think he's HOT. There going to go in droves for this movie.
as far as next week, I think Dear John will break Avatar's streak, and if it doesn't Valentines Day definitely will the weekend after that.
I'm getting sick of seeing Avatar as #1 all these weeks. Maybe we'll have to wait until The Wolfman or Shutter Island to take it's spot.
Also I really have to wonder how Paramount feels about TLB performance so far. According to B.O mojo it has a budget of 100M which seems ridicoulously high, but luckily for them they can lick there wounds with the success of UITA and the almost guranteed success of Shutter Island next month.
@LouAnn: You misunderstood my comment, I never said he didn't have a sense of humor but that from a screenwriter's perspective he's getting lazy. I have no problem with a script following the conventions of a genre but it has to do with the fact that Avatar doesn't have the great character or any real sense of conflict. (I am the only one that thinks Jake Sully got off easy considering he was responsible for genocide?) and can you honestly say that Avatar is more compelling then Aliens, T2 or The Abyss?
Once again I enjoyed Avatar but that was because of the visuals over anything else. I'm a giant fan of James Cameron's earlier films but after T2, he kind of just went the polar opposite of Aristotle's Poetics and the results have while successful, sets itself up to become dated within 10-15 years. By the standards we have for Avatar, The Jazz Singer is also revolutionary cinema… how many people under 40 and not in film school have seen that little gem? As well, how many people remember anything from the film either then its the first "talkie" and the uncomfortable amount of racism by our politically correct standards? I think I made my point.
@Laremy Legel: Now that AVATAR is guaranteed to surpass Titanic's domestic haul of $600 million, where do you James Cameron's latest epic grinding to a halt? $650, $675….dare I say it: $700 million?
I'm gonna throw my prediction out there: $652.4 million – any takers?
@cineJAB: could you provide me with a link to a better poster for AVATAR? While I don't just love the current one, it looks a helluva lot better than the one we got at my theater in Oxford, Mississippi (it was the god-aweful international print with Jakes Human head next to Neytiri's Navi one).
@steve:
Granted, I don't think Channing Tatum is a good actor per se (I found myself cracking up at his inability to emote during "GI Joe") but he's got a following. Also, "Dear John" is the first romantic drama of the year (note I didn't say "romantic comedy"). Those movies are as consistent box office wise as the average rom-com. It has an appeal likened to "The Time Traveler's Wife" or other movies. The floor would be a "Nights in Rodanthe" opening, but the ceiling could be somewhere in the low 20 million range. Plus, female oriented movies often do well on Super Bowl weekend, since the guys are usually caught up with the big game (even if "Taken" proved otherwise last year- but that was an anomaly more than anything).
This will probably sound like a consipiracy theory or something, but…with the internet such a popular stomping ground and so many people connected to it: Anybody think it's possible that "Avatar" might owe some of its continuous winning streak to rabid fans who encourage each other to keep seeing it over and over? (You know, like that story sometime back about Ashton Kutchner getting a billion (or a million) hits in one day on his twitter gadget simply because he encouraged all of his fans/supporters to help him do so).
NOT that the movie wouldn't be popular and number one (for how ever many weeks) without that sort of thing, but… given the rabidness of some of Cameron's (and/or "Avatar's") fans, I wouldn't be surprised.
@mfan: Cop out will probably be the the first $100 million gross of the year. There's always one rowdy R Rated comedy doing a Hangover.
I'm still looking into it, but there seems to be some myths about Superbowl Sunday. First of all, the weekend gross will be low. 2009 $100 million. 2008 $100 million. 2007 $70 million. 2006 $81 million. Films released Superbowl Sunday should therefor have a low budget which usually reduces their box office potential further. Horror movies are good only due to their low budgets. ALL movies fall steeply on sunday: action flicks, romances, horror, you name it. The main reason Hannah Montana/ Miley Cyrus' concert flick has the record for Superbowl Sunday is because it's the only film that DIDN't drop way down on sunday. If Taken was an anomoly, it was only because the studio didn't realize they were looking at a $30 million opener. Book of Eli did $11 million on friday, and $11 million on saturday, but would have tanked on sunday if it opened during the Superbowl. Taken did $9 million on friday, and $11 million on saturday, but fell to $3 million on sunday.
Dear John $12.6 million despite signs of interest by it's target demo. I think the studio didn't have faith in Dear John because of it's plot. Let's see if it will have legs. It's looking like a very low grossing Superbowl Sunday weekend. Maybe in the $80's.
@The Jackal: 760 million is my call
I think Cameron isn't going to fall into the George Lucas trap. He's a far better writer than George Lucas imo. Cameron's screenwriting right now is easier to stomach and can actually improve given more care and polish. I didn't see Cameron give Jack and Rose, and Neytiri and Jake dialogue that is as vomit and cringe inducing as Padme's and Anakin's infamous "I don't like sand, it's coarse and gets everywhere etc etc.."
@Jezza: This year's R rated comedy of the kind is much more likely Hot Tub Time Machine. I can't even see Cop Out doing $50 million@The Jackal: My call is $720+ million. Can't see it making 750 quite yet, but hell, anything can happen.
@mfan: Valentine's Day, maybe Percy Jackson.
@John Debono:
Hmmmm? I'm not going to comment, just yet, on the chance that I may 'misunderstand' you again. Please explain how Jake Sulley is responsible for genocide?
@LouAnn: Well I'll admit that I should have re-phased that to partly responsible but knowingly manipulating a tribe of people to give them your deepest, most ancient secrets… only to use it so that General South Park Hillbilly knows where to completely destroy their home and kill millions of people. Even though he didn't kill anyone per say, that still seems to have more of an effect on people then Avatar would suggest. Sure I mean you could go with all the but Jake Sully had "Heart" crap but so do 6 billion other people on the planet and we don't pull stupid sh*t like that.
Why were we suppose to root for this guy again?
@The Jackal: I'm going to say $672m. It's downward progression percentage still seems strong.
$745,000,000 max in the US/Canada and 2,570,000,000 max worldwide.
A more reasonable figure would be $715 mil and $2,445 bil WW.
If Avatar 2 and 3 and Battle Angel ever get made, JC will have 5 movies that grossed over a billion WW.
Dear John will ends Avatar's streak winning… by a really close number.
Weekend actuals are in with $31,280,029 for Avatar. My prediction from Box Office Oracle: $31.0 million. I win! I wish I could tell you that I carefully calculated the decisions of millions of people, but all I did was predict the same drop as last weekend. But it was the ADJUSTED drop. The real drop from last weekend was minus 18.3%, but that was with MLK day. If you simply trade out monday's gross for MLK sunday's gross, you get the 11.2% drop I predicted. International trends acted as a reality check, and bore out this small drop scenario.
For next weekend, I'm going to predict the same 11.2% drop, but adjusted for a Superbowl Sunday reduction. Happiness is a predictably dropping gross :)
@Laremy Legel: I don't understand what you are saying about a downward progression percentage being strong. For a while Avatar fooled my into thinking it might plateau, like Titanic, instead of steadily dropping. Let's look at it's weekend drop history.
Weekend 2) down 1.8%
This drop is so small that it can be declared statistically insignificant, so it can be seen as a tiny drop or a hold
Weekend 3) down 9.4%
The ENTIRE drop for this weekend was a declining sunday as the holidays ended. Friday's and Saturday's grosses when added together for weekend 2 were $51,369,452 and $51,109,559 for weekend 3. A one day anomoly, by definition, cannot be considered part of a trend, so this weekend can also be seen as a small drop or a hold.
Weekend 4) down 26.6%
The post holiday, most everyone has to go back to work, drop. Again, can't really be seen as any kind of trend.
Weekend 5) down 14.9%
FINALLY, a trend!!! But one with a question mark. How did MLK day change peoples behavior? Did some people not see it F,S,S because they knew they would see it on monday? At any rate we could conclude here that Avatar was going to have small drops.
Weekend 6) down 18.3% ?????
Because of an inflated MLK day, the adjusted drop for this weekend was 11.2%. Change out comparing F,S,S for F,Sat,Mon.
Weekend 7) down 10.8%
Could be considered the same drop as last weekend except for $280,000 dollars.
Conclusion: Avatar's weekend drops have actually gotten SMALLER over the last three weekends!!! Actually, I consider them statistically around the same. Next weekend should see another 10.8% to 14.9% drop. Can the drop be even smaller than 10.8%? Although that is the "trend", it's going too much out on a limb.
Conclusion Correction: the 10.8%-14.9% drop for next weekend has to be adusted for Superbowl Sunday, probably subtracting 2/3 of Sunday's gross.
The SuperBowl should take a bite out of Sunday's gross, but Avatar will rebound the following weekend even with new competition.
@The Check Spot: Diary of a Wimpy Kid wimped out and fled Clash of the Titans et. al. , moving from April 2 to a March 19 release date. I'm still surprised Repo Men hasn't moved. Yet.