Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 28 - Jan. 30, 2011

The big story this week seems to be there really is no story outside of a couple of Oscar nominees gaining ground while a couple of others hardly lose any. Other than that, it's another soft weekend and one where the top ten can only manage $88 million at the box-office as a collection whole. Did any of you make it to the theater and if so, what did you see, Oscar nominees or new releases?
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 4 Weeks In A Row
I don't really have anything to talk about here. There doesn't seem to be much of a story and this is a very uninteresting film to win the weekend. Perhaps that's the angle I should be taking, but in fact I have nothing.

The Rite was made on a $37 million budget and won't be seeing any profit until it hits DVD and Blu-ray so there's no story there. I have a hard time imagining it will be able to make much more than $7 million next weekend, if that.

On the user prediction side of things, we were a bit late on Thursday getting the Oracle article online so there weren't a ton of predictions, but nevertheless, John PT took the top prize with a $14.6 million prediction. Good on yah.

Result: $15 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $19.1 million was $4.1m off for a percentage error of 27.33%.
A 30% drop, which isn't really all that bad, but it wasn't as if it was dropping from a massive opening weekend and as someone in the comments yesterday pointed out, dropping 30% without any genre competition isn't much to brag about.
Result: $13.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $11.61 million, which is $1.99m off for a 14.63% error.
It's a toss up for #3 as The Green Hornet tied with The Mechanic. Your pick as to which one you decide belongs where until actuals come out. The Green Hornet has that pesky $120 million price tag associated with it, which makes the $78 million it has made so far look rather small.
Result: $11.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $10.42 million, which is $1.08m off for a 9.39% error.
Reportedly, CBS Films acquired The Mechanic for only $5 million. I've seen a $40 million production budget attached to it so I have no idea how the theatrical earnings will be split among all parties. However, Laremy was quite close and actually closer than any of the predictions on the board, but just by a smidge.

John PT predicted $12.2 million and Ian predicted $10.8 million, which leaves us with a tie. However, if this were Price is Right the win would go to Ian due to John's overbid... you can argue amongst yourselves for bragging rights.

Result: $11.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $10.81 million, which is $0.69m off for a 6% error.
Wowsers, after Friday's estimated $2.8 million I thought we were looking at a $9 million weekend for the 12 time Oscar nominee, but it took a big jump on Saturday and Sunday and ended up getting a 41% boost over last weekend. A lot of that has to do with Oscar nominations as well as a boost in theaters as it added 877 this weekend.
Result: $11.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.95 million, which is $2.15m off for a 19.37% error.
Here's the other Oscar nominee to gain ground from one weekend to the next, though True Grit's jump was only 3.7%, but it did so while losing 344 theaters. Not too bad eh?
Result: $7.6 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $4.95 million, which is $2.65m off for a 34.87% error.
For those of you wondering when we'll get another good movie, I've seen two of February's releases so far and can tell you to keep an eye out for Cedar Rapids, it's a fun one.
Result: $5.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $4.85 million, which is $0.55m off for a 10.19% error.
No Oscar bump, per se, for Black Swan, but it did manage to only drop 13% from last weekend.
Result: $5.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $4.23 million, which is $0.87m off for a 17.06% error.
The Fighter's drop was even smaller at 2.6%. I wonder, if The Fighter wins three SAG Awards tonight (the award is technically called The Actor) as I predict, will it actually enjoy an increase next weekend?
Result: $4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.66 million, which is $1.34m off for a 33.5% error.
I didn't mention it up above, but True Grit has now made more than Little Fockers. $148.3 million to $144.6 million. That's something to smile about isn't it?
Result: $3.1 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked

For those of you wondering about 127 Hours, which added 847 theaters this weekend for a grand total of 916, it ended up making just over $2 million. So there you have it... hash out your thoughts in the comments and perhaps take a stab at what will win next weekend, although I have a feeling all of you will be picking Sanctum over The Roommate.

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  • John PT

    I did some pretty good predictions for this weekend.

    As for next weekend, The Roommate will win over Sanctum, but it will be another boring weekend.

  • Casper

    There's no way that The Roommate will win next weekend. Sanctum has more theaters + 3d. And it's marketed as James Cameron presents or something like that.

    • mfan

      Right! Let's all go out and pay and extra $3 for a movie that has no actors we've ever heard of, and a director we've never heard of. All for the sake of watching some 3D effects which we've already seen. Not!

      The roommate has people you've actually seen before on the screen, and a more relatable storyline.

      • Winchester

        Actually I would probably go and see Sanctum first if made to choose between the two, because the cast of The Roommate aren't exactly acting knockouts any more than the Sanctum cast are. And the premise of the film has been done to death already. I can tell I've already seen this film about twenty times.

        (Although I actually have also heard of several of the listed actors of Sanctum so I'm not operating at the same of unawareness as others in that department.)

  • Alex L.

    In other news, Henry Cavill cast as superman in the Zach Snyder Reboot.

  • mfan

    The Roomate has a lot more buzz than Sanctum. I'm sure it will win even with a smaller theater count.

    • Nick

      Very possible. Plus, ScreenGems has a great record of successful PG-13 thrillers that opened to #1 on Superbowl weekend (The Messengers, When a Stranger Calls and Boogeyman, each did between $15m and $21m). But Sanctum could well surprise us.

      • John PT

        There is no hype for Sanctum, and you said it all: horror dominates Superbowl. The Roommate is tracking at 20M. I believe it will win with about 17M.

        I really want to see the tv spots of Superbowl. It is the only thing I care about next weekend...

  • Nick

    Nothing will enjoy an increase next weekend. It's Superbowl and besides, why the hell should general public care about SAG awards.

  • Sensei White Lotus

    John PT predictions were awesome. Overall, not really much to cheer about this weekend at the box office, I agree...

  • VMarsFTW

    I think The Roommate has a huge chance at being #1 next weekend. That being said, I think both of next week's releases look awful.

  • Steve J

    Let's give final props to Yogi. Seven weeks in the top ten, gave kids and parents something to watch in January.

  • Kevin Blumeyer

    There are a lot of teenagers who haven't seen Single White Female and are all excited to see The Roommate. It'll win easily over Sanctum, which seems to have almost no buzz.

    • mr pink

      especially due to the fact that santum is R and The Roomate is PG 13

  • Vince (Not Vance)

    The Roommate's winning next weekend. C'mon, don't be silly. Sanctum looks bland & boring with only the 3D aspect really standing out. If stuff like The Descent can't break out, what makes you think Sanctum will?

    Roommate's got Meester (who'll bring in the Gossip Girl kids), it's a horror/thriller film geared towards the teen demographic (unlike The Rite) plus it has that "roommate/stalker from hell" angle which worked wonders for Single White Female, Hand that Rocks the Cradle, etc. Remember Obsessed a couple years back? Screen Gems put out that one too, it ended up making close to $30 million in 3 days. Roommate won't make that much, but high-teens, low $20 million is just about guaranteed.

    • Casper

      and SwimFan in 2002.

  • Casper

    And Valentine's day weekend I would like to see Just Go With It at number 1 but somehow I have a feeling that Justin Bieber movie will be number 1.

    • Stiggy

      Last I checked, Jonas Bros movie flopped big time.

      • Casper

        Yeah I know but Hannah Montana concert movie was a "hit" & number 1 movie for 1 weekend. I figured that Bieber has more fans than Jonas who will flock to theaters. I hope they don't.

      • Vince (Not Vance)

        Bieber's film will probably do better than The JoBros' film (because, Bieber actually lives up to the hype and has sold way more records & is way more popular than the JoBros ever were) but that film will be frontloaded as hell; I doubt it'll make much more than $30 million total, with some $17 million coming just from the 3-day weekend.

        Oh and Just Go With It, somewhere in the vicinity of $32-36 million range for the 3day.

      • mfan

        I'm guessing ticket prices will be the regular price for NSN, and I notice it's being released both in 3D and 2D.

    • Stiggy

      Don't write off Gnomeo & Juliet, the latest in a long line of 3D digimations.

  • Stiggy

    On a side note, wouldn't it be funny if, at next year's Golden Globes, the nominees of the Comedy/Musical category were:
    The Hangover part 2
    Sherlock Holmes 2
    Pirates of the Carribean: On Stranger Tides.

    Imagine the comedy actor showdown: Depp vs Downey