Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 22 – Jan. 24, 2010
COMMENTS
Avatar, again, with feeling.
Six in a row! Avatar seems unstoppable, it will pass Titanic (not adjusted for inflation) within a week. Let's break it down.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 13 Weeks In A Row
1. Avatar
It fell just under 16 percent. It would seem that the normal rules just don't apply to Avatar. DW's $35m call was the closest, kudos in that direction.
Result: 36.0 million (My rank: #1, $4.7m off)
2. Legion
It connected as I figured, unfortunately I was foiled by The Tooth Fairy being avoided.
Result: 18.2 million (My rank: #3, $.8m off)
Actually, DW nailed this one too, though Tooth Fairy was rated too high on that board as well. This one will need about $150m more in box office to set up nicely for DVD profits.
Result: 17.0 million (My rank: #4, $1.4m off)
I'm pleased! Seriously, if I could pick a film to tank this weekend it woulda been this title, certainly we can treat our children better than this. The production budget was $48m, so perhaps decent word of mouth will help them? Zing!
Result: 14.5 million (My rank: #2, $6.5m off)
Where did Harrison Ford's Extraordinary Measures go? This one was what we thought it was, a rollout fiasco.
Result: 8.8 million (My rank: #6, $.6m off)
I would call this a Downey Globe bump, though I predicted against such a thing. As I'm at Sundance right now (and movies beckon!) I'll go ahead and move on to…
Result: 7.1 million (My rank: #8, $1.7m off)
Boom! CBS Films has got to be licking their wounds this morning. Luckily, the budget was only $31m, so they can probably just use this as a tax write-off.
Result: 7.0 million (My rank: #5, $4.8m off)
I'm really curious about Jason Lee's status for the third one. Is he free? Or will he be back for another ten minutes of screentime?
Result: 6.5 million (My rank: #7, $.9m off)
Another Globe bump? It seems as though about 200k people follow the Globes to the point they'll buy a ticket. Though I'm a little confused as to why they wouldn't have seen this already, given their clear passion for the industry.
Result: 6.1 million (My rank: #9, $0.8m off)
Nailed it? Nailed it. So Jackal, it looks as though your Blind Side theory didn't quite materialize… unless the actuals prove me wrong.
Result: 4.7 million (My rank: #10, $0m off)
That's all from Park City, UT. Let me know if you see a seventh straight weekend for Avatar, your thoughts on the direction of CBS Films, and any other news you'd like to discuss. I'll try to stay warm, and for those of you that may be interested I did see a good one here at Sundance you may have already heard of, Get Low, you can read my review here.
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I predict that this will be the end of the road for Avatar now that all those who wanted to see it, have done so.
Next weekend:
1.Edge of Darkness-$32.4 (N/A)-it has the popularity and 3,000 theaters…
2.Avatar-$20 (-44%)-…but will EOD's critical reception cause a plummet or better hold for this…?
3.The Book of Eli-$9.8 (-42%)-this will slip out faster on post-post-MLK weekend.
4.The Tooth Fairy-$8.7 (-40%)-this needs no explanation.
5.Legion-$6* (-67%)-apparently critics CAN manipulate box office.
6.When in Rome-$5.2 (N/A)-I didn't know theater counts could be this low.
7.The Lovely Bones-$5 (-43%)-after the buzz has faded, it's now suffering.
8.Sherlock Holmes-$4.7 (-34%)-this slipped faster than I expected.
9.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$3.5 (-46%)-see #7.
10.Extraordinary Measures-$2.3 (-67%)-see #3. Or watch it and bring tissues.
Bonus Prediction:
12.Crazy Heart-$1.7 (+21%)-now that UITA and P have fallen, that makes room for…
So. Avatar. Yay.
I was nearly right on w/EM. I had it at 7.4. Thank you, thank you.
I also got 7 placements correct! Yes!
We are departing from the award season films as Edge of Darkness and When in Rome debut next week.
Summit Entertainment and Overture Films also launched with weak movies, Summit launched with P2 ($2.1M) and Overture with Mad Money ($7.7M), and we know that Summit have Twilight and Overture have Law Abiding Citizen. Extraordinary Measures is the launch of CBS Films. Lets see how the next movies of CBS run at the box office.
Legion had a great result for a movie with terrible reviews and terrible WOM. AVATAR RULZ, and next weekend will beat Mel Gibson.
I think "Edge of Darkness" will do good with the critics, and take the box office next weekend. 25-30 million sounds about right.
Next week I'm not sure actually. Edge of Darkness seems like a lot like Taken, and that pulled about 25 million. It's getting more advertising and more star studded production values. But than there's the R Rating vs Avatar's PG-13. I suppose it may just come down to the star power of Gibson, the man who hasn't been in a movie since 2002. Is he getting too old for this?
Or maybe I'm forgetting When in Rome?
Avatar to drop 20%-ish as it wont bleeding die and pull 27.5 million. Edge to pull just over 30 maybe, Lethal Weapon 4 pulled in 35 million during the Summer, but I'm optimistic of this fresh counter programming to Avatar.
1. Edge of Darkness 32 million
2. Avatar 27.5 million
3. When in Rome 15 million
4. Book of Eli 10 mill
5. Legion 8 million
#1 movie picked 13 weeks in a row? What is your longest streak?
14 weeks in a row will be tough. next week might be a coin flip for #1. Also, why should Fox pay Jason Lee big bucks when they can throw in a nobody and do just as well?
And before you appoint "Edge" number one, it's Mel's first acting gig since that drunk driving arrest, and every time I think about Gibson now my first thought is South Park.
can avatar beat edge of darkness? ill leave that to the critics
@steve: You're not alone there.
@Laremy: Well, I'm humbled by the results this weekend. I made such a fuss about The Blind Side winning the #10 slot…only to be shamed by the actual numbers. I bow to your Box Office expertise, Laremy :-) [i'm still hoping to be vindicated on Monday)
If AVATAR can manage at least $20 million next weekend, I'm confident that it'll beat out Mel Gibson.
@The Jackal: That depends on what the critics say.
Woohoo! Two shout outs! Guess I overestimated Extraordinary Measures by a long shot. On a side note, I finally saw the Blind Side this weekend. It's showing 1x a day here in Boston, and despite being 10 weeks into its run, the theater was packed today.
Avatar will be #1 again next weekend. If you compare it's sunday number to last monday because of the holiday, then it was only down 9%. I doubt Edge of Darkness will get much love at the box office, and When In Rome has too few theaters to be a threat.
I'm wondering how we went from the charming Kindergarden Cop, to The Tooth Fairy type schlock?
Sandra Bullock won the SAG award. Where is her Critics Choice/Globes/SAG bounce? It's looking good for the Oscars, though.
@mfan: I think we should wait until EOD's critical reception to make official predictions. WIR has too less theaters and until VD comes out, other films will be continuing to make a statement outside the rom-com genre.
@m1: My perspective is that regardless of critical acclaim, the most successful recent "revenge" movie was Taken with under $25 million, and the odds are this movie can't match the best. And if people decide it's a cop melodrama, that will be even worse. Some people are thinking $20 million right now. I feel that if there is a surprise, it will be on the down side. While it's true that good reviews can increase buzz, ask yourself if the buzz for this movie equals the buzz for Legion. I don't think so.
I can definitely see Avatar beating Edge next weekend. Right now I'd predict $28-29 million for Avatar and 20-25 for Edge. Though I wouldn't be surprised if EoD won.
Also, I think Avatar has a chance to beat From Paris with Love and win its eighth weekend too with no less than $20 million (I can't see FPwL doing that). However, Percy Jackson, Valentine's Day and possibly even The Wolfman will all take it down after that.
@cdash: This is the longest I've ever had. Hoping to keep it going.
@The Jackal: Yeah, I definitely don't want to crow too much… the actuals are surprising every so often, so it still might end up in your favor. :)
@steve: Hopefully by Thursday I'll have enough numbers to avoid that coin flip. Theater counts will be big.
Weekend Actuals: Within 1.5 million
Avatar 34,944,801 dw 35 mfan 33.8 maja 33.6
Legion 17,501,625 BB 17 Cspot 18.7 Laremy 19 mfan 16 Jackal 16
Book of Eli 15,732,493 JPT 15.6 Nick 16 JM 15.2 Cspot 14.9 mfan 14.8 dw 17
Tooth Fairy 14,010,409 Cspot 13.2 Jackal 13.2 JPT 15.5
Lovely Bones 8,418,192 JPT 8.9 mfan 7.5 Laremy 9.4 JM 9.4 Nick 9.4 Jackal 9.8 BB 9.9
Sherlock 6,628,069 Cspot 6.9 maja 6.3 Nick 6.2 DanT 5.6 Jackal 7.5 Laremy 5.4
Chipmunks 6,403,504 JM 6.5 and just about everyone
Extra Meas 6,012,594 mfan 6.4 mi 7.4
Complicated 5,810,025 Nick 5.8 and everyone who tried
Spy Next Door 4,584,524 Laremy 4.7 and everyone who predicted it in the top 10
O.K. I'll say it. I was within $1.5 million on Avatar, The Lovely Bones, and all the new releases except The Tooth Fairy because I always go over on kid's movies.
I think Avatar will take next weekend as well, looking at $28 million just off the top of my head now. I think we will see something out of Edge of Darkness, only for the curiosity aspect of it. Remember, at one time, Gibson was a huge draw. He may still have something going on there and after all, Taken did well with Liam Neeson of all people taking the lead. I see around $25 million. And the lovers will take a look see at When in Rome with about $14 million, but I'm surprised it's not getting any good advertising. Though, I love the "From the Studio that Brought You The Proposal" tags on the poster. Movie is in trouble when the ads have to include "From the Studio…" on it.
NEWSFLASH!
Clash of the Titans looks like it has been pushed back to an April 2 release date to accomodate giving it the 3D treatment! Will any other films try to take it's previous March 26th slot?
I'd imagine that Repo Men would move out of April 2nd. Seems to be a similar audience. March 26th would be much better for it.