Box-Office Wrap-Up: Jan. 15 - Jan. 17, 2010

Avatar keeps winning, it fell just a smidge under 18 percent to take its fifth crown in a row. The film had the lowest drop-off among the top 25 and it's crossed the $1.6b worldwide cume threshold. James Cameron even made a cameo on SNL this weekend. I'm pretty sure he could get Spider-Man: The Baby Years greenlit if he felt like it.
#1 movie predicted correctly: 12 Week In A Row
It looks as though alert commenter JM was closest with a call of $40.9m.

What can Avatar do next? Cold Fusion? If they win The Golden Globe for Best Drama tonight the route could be on come March.

Result: 41.3 million (My rank: #1, $3.8m off)
Athar's $32m prediction looks very nice right about now. The Book of Eli outperformed most analyst's expectations, but they still have plenty of work to do. That $80m production budget looms.
Result: 31.6 million (My rank: #2, $3.1m off)
Curses, I should have seen the six months of marketing finally paying off.

JM nails it again, though John-PT and Mfan were close too. This is another film that will need to cash in during this slow season to have any hope of recouping that $100m production budget.

Result: 17.0 million (My rank: #4, $4.4m off)
I missed the boat on the holiday, parents with Monday off finally relented and shuffled off to see The Squeakquel. Alvin has outearned Sherlock Holmes worldwide, and on a lesser production budget, which I suppose indicates that it's a children's world. The rest of us are just renting.
Result: 11.5 million (My rank: #6, $3.6m off)
Back on track? They are making money here, but Warner Bros. could always use more. That's why I expect a very special "special edition" DVD in three months.
Result: 9.8 million (My rank: #5, $1.6m off)
This was a case of parents choosing chipmunks over Chan. Did anyone on the board have that happening? The Jackal did, though it's tough to give full credit as he had Spy Next Door finishing ninth, which would have been even more of a disaster. Will you take partial credit, Jackal?
Result: 9.7 million (My rank: #3, $4.0m off)
Meryl Streep can't be stopped. She can only hope to be contained. Look for a very golden evening out of her.
Result: 7.6 million (My rank: #7, $0.4m off)
How do we feel about the potential of Leap Year 2: Total Leapage? They can take solace in the fact that the budget was only $19m.
Result: 5.8 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
I like Bullock to win tonight too, for this here movie, she's earned it by giving the best performance of her career. Is it better than the other nominees? Impossible to quantify given the data we're working with.
Result: 5.5 million (My rank: #10, $.7m off)
What happened to Daybreakers? It fell 67 percent, that's what. Not ideal.
Result: 5.4 million (My rank: #9, $.2m off)

Next weekend? Low theater counts for the contenders... will Avatar join Titanic as the last film to take six weekend in a row? Did any of the results surprise you? I've got a busy Globes day planned, but I'll be checking in on you, never fear.

  • Amir Syarif Siregar

    Damn! I really wish one movie could just stap Avatar from taking Titanic off the map. But yah... that's impossible. Bravo, Cameron.

    But hey... Titanic 3D is coming out soon. So... :)

  • Athar

    Avatar will win its 6th Weekend in a row. Nothing can stop it. In fact, it wont be dislodged off the Top Spot till 12th Feb. That would be 8 Weekends at the Top. I think the people at Fox would take it.

  • Nick

    I agree that Avatar is most likely to be #1 until Percy Jackson and Valentine's Day come out, and then Shutter Island. Also, it's now on track not just to 600, but to $650 million... at least. Wowzers.

    I totally nailed Sherlock by the way. Nice little victory. And congrats to JM

  • Arjuna

    if Avatar wins Best Picture at the globes then it will break Titanic's record 100%

  • John-PT

    Avatar will win again next weekend, because Legion, The Tooth Fairy and Extraordinary Measures will all bomb big time. Edge of Darkness is the only movie capable of stoping Avatar winning streak, and if he doesn't, then Avatar will win the weekends until February 12th.

    Next Weekend Early Predicitions:
    1. Avatar - $28.4M
    2. The Book Of Eli - $15.3M
    3. The Tooth Fairy - $13.8M
    4. Legion - $8.8M
    5. The Lovely Bones - $8.2M

  • JJ Abrams

    It would be a little funny if avatar finished it's box office run at 1,799,999,999 just 1 buck under titanic but i don't think thats going to happen

  • Kid

    I think Avatar will win no doubt next weekend. Legion looks like it'll bomb, Extraordinary Measures looks like it'll bomb as well, for Tooth Fairy I'm thinking Game Plan dollars minus around 5-10 million cause of how terrible it looks. I think Edge of Darkness and Avatar is gonna be a really close call, but I have a feeling no matter the result of that Avatar will still take the crown on the 5th.

  • maja

    Avatar is sure to beat Titanic now. It only needs around $200m worldwide and it got $150m worldwide just this weekend! Wouldn't be surprised if it gets to the $2b mark.

  • gobeatbox!

    Considering next weekend's slate of films (tooth fairy being the closest many consider to competition, but who knows what'll happen with extraordinary measures), I'd say avatar has one more weekend on top (which is a shame since I really didn't want dark knight to lose its spot so quickly). I think edge of darkness will finally be the one to take its number one spot.

  • DarkKnightFAN12

    If Avatar wins best drama I will throw something at the television. Best effects, sound, etc...sure. Best drama, not by a million miles.

  • junjun

    It's over. The Worlwide and Domestic records are going to fall. I want to invest in whatever James Cameron's next movie will be.

  • William

    @DarkKnightFAN12: Good to see a sensible person talk about this movie, it's been a while.

  • Steven Kar

    I think it's possible for AVATAR to reach $650 million domestically and $2.14 billion WW. It's ridiculous, 3D bump or no 3D bump.

  • Rod

    I've seen all the Golden Globe Drama nominees and though my vote would go to The Hurt Locker if I had one, I will not be up in arms should Avatar win. There have been far FAR worse films that have won not only the Golden Globe, but the Oscars as well.

  • Rod

    As for the Box office..Avatar is the new king. Some people can gripe about 3D surcharges, but that's the landscape we live in now folks. Also, the movie is showing in thousands of traditional 2D screens as well, and if the majority of people choose to pay extra to see it in 3D or IMAX, then you can't hold that against the movie.

  • jess2234

    I liked how you added the Avatar poster!

  • mfan

    Man, I such at predicting kid's movies. I guess I predict based on if kid's were making the dicisoins instead of therr parents.

  • m1

    Next weekend:

    1.Avatar-$30.4 (-26%)
    2.The Book of Eli-$$25.2 (-20%)
    3.The Tooth Fairy-$15.7 (N/A)
    4.Legion-$10.2 (N/A)
    4.The Lovely Bones-$12 (-29%)
    5.Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel-$8.5 (-26%)
    6.Extraordinary Measures-$7.4 (N/A)
    7.Sherlock Holmes-$6.9 (-30%)
    8.The Spy Next Door-$5.1 (-47%)
    9.It's Complicated-$6.6 (-14%)
    10.Up in the Air-$6.2 (+15%)

  • wrongturn687

    Nice numbers all around and now it shouldn't be very long until Avatar beats Titanic's domestic and WW gross. It's obviously going to be number one next week as well, but what I'm really interested in is how Legion will do. There seems to be alot of people who think it looks dumb as hell and while I agree it looks like alot of fun too. Movies like that your not suppose to take seriously at all and it's not trying to be anything else besides a trashy B horror movie. I suspect the first guilty pleasure of 2010 has arrived.

  • JM

    So, Laremy, if Avatar beats Titanic at the box office, will you put its poster at the forefront of your box office title card?

  • The Jackal

    @Laremy: Don't get too comfortable with your title graphic, by this time next week, Avatar will have definitely passed The Dark Knight's $533 million to become the new 2nd Highest Grossing film of all-time.

  • Laremy Legel

    @JM: Yep, when it earns it we'll change the graphic.

    @William: I'm actually a massive Dark Knight fan, and a vocal critic of Avatar's third act. But I'm the first to admit that the numbers don't lie, the box office success of Avatar is impressive. Does it mean it's a great film? Of course not, because might doesn't equal right. But for the moment I have to tip my cap, the film has dominated about two months worth of news cycles.

  • Mystery

    Avatar's 4-Day is $54.6 Million. Beat TDK ro $500 Million by an impressive 13 days.

  • mfan

    There's nothing wrong with The Dark Knight, but it wasn't even nominated for an Oscar for best picture. Avatar will be. So both the dollars, and the acclaim go to Avatar.

  • mfan

    Avatar actuals have come in at $42.8 3day, less than a million from my secondary prediction based on Avatar steadily dropping, but far away from my plateauing theory. Did Titanic plateau because of awards bounce?

    Please ignore my previous post just above as it was not constructive to the conversation.

  • mfan

    Apparantly, Avatar is down just 2% for the four day weekend when compared to last weekend plus monday. Is the jury still out on an Avatar plateau? At least at some point?

  • Bradley Badder

    Will next week be the end of 'The Blind Side' ? I hope it can through it's claws into February but if not then it's done 250% better than I thought it would. Bravo.

  • Bradley Badder

    I've just realised that the 'AVATAR' Poster has been added onto the Box Office Oracle Sign....