Box-Office Wrap-Up: 'Inception' Opening Weekend Scores $64 Million
Is that enough to leave Warner Bros. smiling?
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| Did you see it? Did you enjoy it? We've been discussing it over email the past week, it's the film that keeps on giving. As for the box office outlook, it's not great unless these legs are long. A $60m opening suggests something around $200m in domestic box office unless word-of-mouth is off the charts. Bright side: it might be. The production budget is listed at $160m, meaning that clearly $200m isn't going to cut it. So we go to the international take and what do we find? Perhaps another bright side, the films that tend to have a nice multiplier overseas are spectacles: Titanic, Dark Knight, Lord of the Rings, Alice in Wonderland. Verdict: it's too soon to tell. But here's the thing Brad clued me into which made a ton of sense. Inception wasn't even about the money for Warner Bros. It was about thanking Nolan for The Dark Knight and getting Nolan to make Batman 3. And if that's the only goal… success! Result: $60.4 million My rank: I picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $60.67 million was $0.27m off for a percentage error of 0.45%. | |
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My rank: I picked it to finish #2 with $34.08 million, which is $1.38m off for a 4.22% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #3 with $21.02 million, which is $3.72m off for a 21.5% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #4 with $15.61 million, which is $2.21m off for a 16.49% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #6 with $11.56 million, which is $0.14m off for a 1.2% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #7 with $9.82 million, which is $0.18m off for a 1.8% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #8 with $6.99 million, which is $0.41m off for a 5.54% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #5 with $11.88 million, which is $5.08m off for a 74.71% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #9 with $4.81 million, which is $1.11m off for a 30% error.
My rank: I picked it to finish #10 with $2.6 million, which is $0.4m off for a 18.18% error.
How say you? Delighted or disappointed with Inception's haul? Sad to see Disney get mauled? And any other deep thoughts on the weekend? Weigh in now or forever hold your peace!
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I would have to respectfully disagree with your assessment about Inception's profit chances. It was never going to make the amount of money necessary to be profitable just with its North American take. This was always going to need international and home theater revenue to make its money back which I'm convinced it will (and DVD and Blu Ray sales are going to be big). I think a $60 million opening for a non-3D movie with no ready-made built-in audience is a great opening.
I think WB will actually probably be pleased with this opening since it's perfectly solid. Inception was IMO never going to set any records re openings etc anyway.
The question with this one now is what kind of legs it will have. Will people go back once, twice, thrice to draw out more clues, feed their discussions or just because the action and visuals worked for them?
I'll be seeing it again – but I'll confess the film never emotionally engaged or involved me, I was constantly viewing it from a distance and it didn't really draw me into it. I'm only going because I like to try and find more clues regarding the many theories about it.
Apart from that – well, with Sorcerer's Apprentice maybe Bruckheimer and Disney need to have a look at what they're putting out and maybe review their relationship.
Great call on Inception, Laremy! I would have said just over $70m.
Give you an idea, word-of-mouth is insane on my end. Non-film goers and non film buffs on Facebook or Twitter are at the highest possible level of hype. Same thing happened for Avatar. I'm seeing it for the third time tomorrow, since Thursday's IMAX midnight opening.
Hopefully it translates well overseas. Quite literally. This is one of the most complex, most intricate, most intelligent plots ever put on film and how could that possible translate easily via subtitles or dubbing? Fingers crossed.
Also Predators = Hellboy 2. Mistake of releasing an action film the week before a Christopher Nolan one.
I'm always a bit skeptical when the budget estimates are released after a studio sees how opening weekend went, but then I doubt any budget data is really accurate anyway. In any event, $64m against $160m sounds much better. I'm still curious to see the word of mouth results on Inception's hold next week, as a B+ Cinemascore is not overly glowing. We'll have to see how it stands up to Salt to know where the ceiling might be on this one.
As for Sorcerer's… Ouch. Looks like Disney really did need to buy the Marvel brand to get some action franchises. Someone made the very astute observation that the couldn't remember a family film before that looked so dark in all of the trailers and commercials. It seems this definitely didn't manage to find it's own audience.
As for Predators, it's looking like they may finally have to give up on that franchise. After it and Terminator Salvation both underperformed, you have to wonder how confident folks are in that Alien prequel.
I have to say, despite being a fan of Alien/Aliens I don't really see the need for a prequel (let alone two prequels as some interviews suggest) even if Ridley Scott is back on board to direct them.
And it likely won't be made for as low a budget as Predators either. It will be more like the Terminator: Salvation budget I would imagine.
Wow, Laremy, you nailed Inception perfectly! In fact, you called most of the box office really well on a weekend that left most of us confused. Congrats!!
I am not sure if Inception should be considered a $160M thank you gift from WB, wouldn't a Rolls-Royce have been cheaper?
I really hope Inception has long legs. Mainly because studio execs will be watching very closely. Whether it was a thank you gift or not, it will need to make good profit if we want to see the likes in the near future. Ancilliary revenues are short for a film like this so it needs solid box office performance versus the budget.
WB execs may be breathing a sigh of relief; Disney execs have got to feel like they are living with a never-ending wedgie. Their critical strategic partnership with Jerry Bruckheimer is starting to look like a strategic mistake. Jerry had better deliver in P4 if he really likes working with the Mouse Ears.
They are already cutting the working budget for Pirates 4 for example by specifying less water scenes??? and fewer locations. Even if the script is strong, Disney is showing a willingness to comprimise the vision/integrity of a project to cut costs. Keep your fingers crossed.
The last two Pirates movies were poor anyway, and oversized lavish budgets didn't help make them good films.
Maybe reducing the budget might actually make them more creative.
Although, being Bruckheimer – it is doubtful.
My bar for what I come away from a movie with is lower than yours. I hope to come away with SOMETHING to praise about a movie. I went to see Sex And The City 2, knowing full well that it would probably suck, but I thought at least the costuming would shine. Wrong! There is always something to like about the Pirates movies. A lower budget reduces the chances of having things to like about a movie. As you say, they might have to actually rely on creativity and a strong script. But those commodities are in short supply.
As I see it, Bruckheimer was never known for his great films. Just O.K. movies with mass appeal. Some O.K. enough to spawn sequels.
Very solid opening for Inception no matter what expectations were. It's a very original and unique film that should get great multiple viewings in the upcoming weeks and become a big grosser for Warner Bros. by the end of it's run. Good drop for DM which should still be on track to crack past $200M. TSA is pretty much dead on arrival. Eclipse dropped hard, but can still make it to $300M although I don't think it will go much farther than that. TS3 had an okay drop, but now it's likely it won't go too far past $400M if it gets there. GU is still doing great business and should easily crack $140M and 150+ is deffentially in play. TLA continues to fade fast and I see it struggling getting to $130M. Last but not least Predators fell like a rock and now I deffentially don't see it getting to $50M domestic.
I think all of you guys are greedy.
60 mil for INCEPTION is FANTASTIC! This is going to have huge legs, people are already planning on seeing this again and again and WOM is fantastic.
I don't think WB will be disappointed at all with a 200 mil domestic gross.
God, you guys are so damn greedy.
I can assure you that I will not make a single dollar from Inception. My agent always signs me up for net … :(
I think that WB will be delighted with that opening for Inception. I think that word of mouth will be great to get it over $250m domestic, and can see it getting at least that internationally – so I think it will be profitable, and if it is Christopher Nolan will be able to make any movie he wants after Batman 3.
Well its a solid start, way off but gotta agree with Oscar Smarty, WOM is fantastic on this film and I can see BB legs on this one.
Your guess on the reason for the outrage on The Last Airbender is right on the money. People were expecting something amazing because of the fantastic source material.
I think word-of-mouth for "Inception" will be off the charts, and let me explain why. Personally, even though I loved it, I feel like this is a film that a lot of mainstream audiences will have difficulty with; however, I think that could actually help its word-of-mouth.
To clarify, even if somebody didn't like "Inception," they are likely to feel very strongly about that (i.e. "I HATED the ending.") So, when they say that to their friends, such an emotional reaction will most likely arouse curiosity in the listener, and convince them to go see the movie for themselves.
P.S. Just a quick correction. The title of the article says $64 million for "Inception."
You did nailed Laremy! My question now is… How much is Salt going to affect Inception? I mean I think it's going to have great legs but remember Jolie have a great fan club. I think next week Inception may be #2 but in it's third week it's going to get back at #1.
I think the issue will be how well Inception transitions from fan-boy fave to WOM must-see event. You are right, there is a definite mingling of audiences. IMO Salt will be more accessible than Inception making it appealing to a wider audience. Which will make next week a lot of fun to predict. The dailies this week will give us a good indicator on whether Inception is igniting the masses.
Weekdays will be highly telling in how well it's spreading amongst people.
There's probably room for both. Salt has in it's favour a simple and easy to digest basic premise.
She's set up and on the run. Or is she set up?
Easy concept to grasp, Angelina has yet to have a failure in an actioner (it's her bread and butter genre), and the trailer is pretty decent.
I think it has a shot at a north of $45 million opening and could work for her without impacting drastically on Inception. Unless it becomes another victim of the 2010 actioner pile up, but there hasn't really been one that's been a bona fide hit this year so I think Salt might just buck the trend.
Salt will have a 70 million openning. I think it will surprise many people.
Not sure about going that high with it………..yet!!
Anyways, Inception looks to have brought in about $16 million in international markets and rolls out to the bulk of them over the next fortnight. It's only started in about 7 foreign markets so far.
I actually just got to thinking, could current American events help or hurt it's box-office potential?
That depends on reviews. There are already some early reviews on RT, so if it's already being screened, that has to mean something.
@Colin – I never thought about that. But spy movies in general are a perennial favourite, even though they are by no means guaranteed hits either.
@M1 – I haven't had a look yet but what direction are the early reviews going in?
Good? Bad? Indifferent?
@Winchester: There are 5 reviews as of now on RT and MC combined. The RT ones are indifferent, but the MC ones are doubtlessly positive.
Next week-
1. Inception- 54 m.Word of mouth will be great.
2. Salt
3. TSA
4. Dumb DM
5. Eclipse
6. Toy Story 3
7. Grown Ups
8. Airbender
9. Predators
10. K and D
1. Inception- 54 m.Word of mouth will be great.
2. Salt
3. TSA
4. Dumb DM
Despicable Me BELOW TSA???????????
There is a massive fail with your predictions. Where is 'Ramona and Beezus'? 'Knight and Day' is not hitting the top 10 next weekend!
Sorry. Forgot Ramona and Beezus. Here it is revised.
1. Inception-54 m.- WOM will be great.
2. Salt
3. Ramona and Beezus
4. The Sorcerers Apprentice
5. Despicable/Stupid Me
6. Eclipse
7. Toy Story 3
8. Grown Ups
9. Airbender
10. Predators
Hmm next week will be very interesting. Both Salt and Inception will probably end up hurting each other alot more than people think, but I wouldn't be suprised if it came really close between the two for the number one spot. Both have similar demo appeal for sure, but I still think Salt has the edge because of it's appeal to teen and adult women unlike Inception's mostly adult male appeal. Still you never know because Inception could end up having truly AMAZING WOM next week, but for now I will give the edge to Salt.
1. Salt – $37M
2. Inception – $35M
"…unless word-of-mouth is off the charts."-Laremy Legel
'cough' OVERRATED 'cough'.
If you want an early idea of how good Inception's holds might be, consider its first two daily drops:
+0.0% Saturday (a miniscule increase, but still an increase and not a decrease)
-19.9% Sunday
Then compare that to the biggest and third biggest original movies last year (I'm skipping over up because it's a family film and also part of the Pixar brand):
Avatar:
-4.6% Saturday
-3.1% Sunday
The Hangover:
-10.0% Saturday
-12.4 Sunday
I think the Sunday drops are the most important, and I think they imply that Inception will hold very well–not as well as Avatar or The Hangover, but nearly as well. Having a Saturday hold like that is very good for such an anticipated movie. So if Avatar got a 10x multiplier and The Hangover got a 6x multiplier, I think we can reasonably expect a 4x multiplier at least from Inception, and maybe even a 5x. That means $240-300mil domestically. Add overseas (which won't be as strong, but will still probably be pretty solid) and DVD sales, and you have a commercial success and a critical smash hit.
You are a little bit early using the Sunday hold estimate for a talking point. Wait for the finals. Right now we just have studio estimates of what it might be. It becomes a guessing game on whether the studio is going high with its estimate (for all the articles that use the Sunday estimates as actuals) or low for its estimate (conservative so it performs event better that it looked originally). It could very well go higher.
1.Inception-$57.2 (-5%)
2.Salt-$40.2 (N/A)
3.Despicable Me-$19.7 (-40%)
4.Ramona & Beezus-$12.2 (N/A)
5.Toy Story 3-$9.9 (-15%)
6.The Twilight Saga: Eclipse-$8 (-41%)
7.The Sorcerer's Apprentice-$7.4 (-57%)
8.Grown Ups-$5 (-50%)
9.The Last Airbender-$2.1 (-72%)
10.The Kids Are All Right-$1.9 (+90%)
Great to see Inception do really well and Sorcerer's Apprentice deserved to fail since it was not good at all. There was just no reason for it to be made. Simple as That. Inception should have no trouble getting to around $500 million worldwide theatrically which is just great and should make WB very happy.
Inception was incredible, me and my dad saw it last night. He didn't pay attention and i had to explain to him what happened. But, i knew what was going on and didn't find it too hard to follow. It was so much better then the dark knight, tho tdk was amazing, inception tore it apart.
Inception's 2nd weekend vs. Salt next weekend somewhat reminds me of Avatar's 2nd weekend vs. Sherlock Holmes.
Granted we're talking about Christmas vs. late July. And Granted that Inception opened at $15m less than Avatar and will drop drastically more than 2%. But we had gotten two very different action movies that proved that there was room for both.
One side had an original non-franchise blockbuster from a big director, with huge buzz and WOM (potentially for Inception) vs. the other side relying on the fanbase of the lead star (Downey Jr/Jolie).
Interesting way to view it.
I think both will probably do just fine, but I don't remotely expect Inception to end up having the second weekend hold that Avatar did.
If it's lucky it will fall by less than 25% and perhaps hit around $45.
Since that should bring it into the territory of Salt's potential opening then next weekend might just bring an interesting battle with it.
@Laremy Legel: I agree that in terms of percentage drop from weekend to the next, Predators was an epic failure; however, there are some other things one must consider.
Predators was made on a paltry budget of $40 million and it's already made $77.7 million internationally. Considering that the Alien & Predator sagas have such a loyal DVD fan base, I'm betting this film will add at least another $50 million on BD/DVD sales.
What I'm saying is this. It'll make enough for Rodriguez and company to feel confident about greenlighting the inevitable sequel. I just hope its better than the underwelming C+ film that Predators was.
just my thoughts
I thought it was solid opening. I didn't find the film too complex either. The characters explained what was going on for the most part.
I haven't seen Inception yet, but will head off to the nearest theater tonight, as I was out of town for a week (I've been dying to see the film on opening night for nearly a year now, but, oh well). I saw Dark Knight three (or was it four?) times in cinemas when it came out, and I suppose I will repeat with Inception. Considering how many people I will drag along, I will cash in a lot of money, and the buzz it has around here (I live in Bulgaria) makes me think it will have quite a solid box-office. I hope it makes its money, Nolan is the greatest right now. I thought 60 mil was good though.
I had not previously thought about it, but the highest opening for any film that doesn't have a built in audience is $77 million. And since the built in audience is almost always due to the film being a sequel or a remake, maybe we should stop criticizing Hollywood for making so many of them.
Actually The Passion of the Christ had an OW of $85 million+ and that didn't have a built in audience.
The Bible is the biggest selling book of all time. As Twilight was based on a book, so was Passion. Mel Gibson should do a movie about Revelation. I mean, he seems angry enough. Any Bible story has a huge potential built in audience, just as the story of Alice in Wonderland is known throughout much of the world.
Actually Passion of the Christ was actually based on a true story. Twilight obviously wasn't.
From a scientific/historic perspective the Bible is barely more of a true story than "Twilight". My two cents agrees with the consistently intelligent mfan and says they both had built-in audiences and don't qualify.
If it was a case of the Bible recording what allegedly happened, then it based on an alleged true story.
@ Laremy Legel
The title of the article says Inception opening weekend scores 64 million when it realy only did 60. THe drop for Inception will be close to none word of mouth around my area is crazy about it!
Inception might just save summer.
Could you define in what capacity it's going to 'save'? That's a rather vague statement.
Critically? Financially? Both? Some third unknown reason?
A little specificity would help.
Critically, it will be saved. Financially, not likely, this has been a pretty horrendous summer for the box office. Some third unknown reason, yes. For me, personally, Inception (and to a lesser degree, Toy Story 3) has renewed my faith that blockbuster films don't have to be all spectacle – they can have thought-provoking ideas, puzzles, emotional depth. I can honestly see Inception finding a future spot in my list of best / favorite films.
Final numbers have also revised the opening up to $62.7 Million actual.
I don't see how WB can be upset by this.
Have they released any statement etc like they sometimes do after opening weekends?
I'm very pleased with the opening for Inception. I saw it twice this weekend, once at midnight Thu-Fri and again Saturday evening. I think I've mostly got my head around it now and I still think it's an incredibly visionary piece of cinema. Now of course the question is legs. The dailies for the weekend are encouraging, with Fri and Sat running virtually equal and Sunday just a few million behind. There's also the two components that create legs for a film: one is great word of mouth which gets people out to see a film who didn't see it opening weekend. The other is repeat viewings. Inception should do well with the former aspect, but I think the latter is the bigger question. Will people care enough about what they saw to go see it multiple times to continue to digest it or not? Of course I'm hoping for yes, but we'll have to see. But regardless, this is not Avatar, nor will it be. Anything $40 million or above next weekend would be very, very good, but I don't see any way it does an Avatar drop and makes $60 million and I doubt it will make $50 million. Which means that Salt will likely beat it; Angelina Jolie as a female Bourne seems to be the selling point and that should translate to $50 million or more. If Inception does hold well and make something around $40 million, July 30 will be the most interesting weekend as it could very well grab the top spot back with Dinner for Schmucks as its only real competition and that shouldn't do much over $30 million. I'd say Cats and Dogs might have G-Force potential, but it doesn't have that in-your-face Disney marketing so I'm hoping it will crash and burn. I don't know yet what to call for Ramona and Beezus or Charlie St. Cloud, but I don't remotely care about either of those films anyway.
I just can't get excited about "Salt" (yet). It just looks like the usual spy movie I have seem a million times.