Box-Office Wrap-Up: 'Harry Potter' is a $125.1 Million Wizard
COMMENTS
But he's not a record-breaking one
Sorry, no major records broken this weekend, but an impressive result nonetheless as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 enjoys the highest opening weekend for a Potter film yet and lands itself a spot among some big names. Let's break it down…
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row
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| Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 looked strong out of the gates and while it is now the sixth largest opening of all-time behind The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 3, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Iron Man 2, it dipped too much on Saturday from it's opening day $61.1 million to wrestle away the November opening record from New Moon. However, a top ten placement on the all-time opening list ain't too shabby as it will likely push for a $300+ million domestic run after this, becoming only the third Harry Potter film to do so. As far as user predictions go, Oscar Smarty's $157.3 million call was way off, but those that were a bit closer were…
Result: $125.1 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $134.464 million was $9.364m off for a percentage error of 7.49%. | |
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2. Megamind
Megamind enjoyed the 44.5% drop it looked like it would have after Friday and has now passed $100 million and gone over $109 million after three weeks.
Result: $16.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $19.801 million, which is $3.701m off for a 22.99% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $19.801 million, which is $3.701m off for a 22.99% error.
3. Unstoppable
In third, Unstoppable dropped a little less than expected for a 42.3% dip, which isn't going to cut it for the $100 million budgeted film.
Result: $13.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $11.117 million, which is $1.983m off for a 15.14% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $11.117 million, which is $1.983m off for a 15.14% error.
4. Due Date
Warner's Due Date has now grossed over $72 million, dropping only 41%, which is rather significant considering the 53% plunge it took last week. It is now nearing $73 million total, which should make Warner execs breathe a sigh of relief for a film that cost a lot more than it really should have at $65 million before prints and advertising.
Result: $9.1 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.017 million, which is $1.083m off for a 11.9% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $8.017 million, which is $1.083m off for a 11.9% error.
In fifth is the week's other new wide opener with the Russell Crowe starrer The Next Three Days opening in 2,564 theaters and only earning an average of $2,633 on those screens. I did see some advertising for this film, but I got the feeling not many people even knew about it. Was that the case for you or were the middling reviews and the trailers just not doing it for you?
Result: $6.7 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.538 million, which is $4.838m off for a 72.21% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $11.538 million, which is $4.838m off for a 72.21% error.
Morning Glory suffered a 43% dip, which is not what Pararmount wanted to see for a film that didn't enjoy a large opening weekend. It's too bad really because it's a fun film, just not the Oscar contender some expected or anticipated it would be, but even then I don't think that would've helped its chances. Perhaps this just was a film doomed from the start.
Result: $5.2 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.107 million, which is $0.093m off for a 1.79% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $5.107 million, which is $0.093m off for a 1.79% error.
7. Skyline
Did you see the interview with the Skyline producers at Moviefone talking about the negative critical reaction to the film? Maybe give it a look. Joshua Cordes responded saying, "[It] hurt, because I love movies and people who love them, and were getting reactions like we made something that came out of some dark intentions."
The film has now made over $17 million on a $10 million budget, that should take a little of the sting out of things.
Result: $3.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.495 million, which is $2.095m off for a 61.62% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.495 million, which is $2.095m off for a 61.62% error.
8. Red
There's nothing left to say about Red other than the buzz that it is looking like a strong contender for a Golden Globe nomination in the Comedy/Musical category. Yeesh!
Result: $2.46 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $2.778 million, which is $0.318m off for a 12.93% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $2.778 million, which is $0.318m off for a 12.93% error.
Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls dropped 66% in its second weekend and now 63% in its third. Front-loaded much?
Result: $2.4 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.128 million, which is $0.728m off for a 30.33% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.128 million, which is $0.728m off for a 30.33% error.
10. Fair Game
Summit's Fair Game finds its way to the top ten for the first time, expanding to 386 theaters and enjoying a $3,808 per theater average.
Result: $1.4 million
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
In other news, the still limited release of 127 Hours wasn't able to crack the top ten, taking in $915,000 from 108 theaters for an $8,472 per theater average.
Now it's your turn to chat it up. Does the Potter number surprise you? Disappoint you? How do you expect it to holdover next week?
Any guesses on next week's newcomers: Burlesque, Faster, Love and Other Drugs and Tangled? Have your say below.
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You know something, I was left feeling confused after seeing TV spots for The Next Three Days. I have no idea what that movie is about based on those ads, the only ones that I saw.
If i had to choose between harry potter and the next three days……
The Next Three Days?
Drat, I should have stuck to my original plan to go with a $30,000 PTA for HP7 like I was last Sunday before deciding it had the potential to go higher.
Live and Learn………..as they say.
Not a good start for 'The Next Three Days' but I think that going against HP7 was a gamble that just didn't work for the film. Apparently, it has also had weak reviews in general though.
I'd have thought Tangled would be the inital bet for next week, but the question is whether Potter will fall far enough to let it take top spot, or whether it will hold on for a second week.
If you look at HP: 4- the goblet of fire it opened the same weekend and did amazing numbers during the thanksgiving week. WOM on this is INCREDIBLE. It will definetly make $60 mil next weekend and I think Tangled will do similar numbers to Enchanted. Familys are starved for a family film since Megamind.
Early Predictions:
1. HARRY POTTER & THE DEATHLY HALLOWS- 62.3 mil
2. TANGLED- 34.6 mil
3. LOVE & OTHER DRUGS- 22.9 mil
4. BURLESQUE- 19.7 mil
5. MEGAMIND- 15.6 mil
Not sure if anyone outside this website knows about Love and Other Drugs.
Brad, is there any chance Harry Potter gets the Blind Side nomination this year for Best Picture? It's got pretty good reviews and would most likely bring higher ratings in for the Oscars. It wouldn't shock me if gets nominated for Best Cinematography, along with some Special Effects and Sound nominations.
Also, just as a heads up, the mobile version of this page cuts off the Harry Potter part on my iPhone.
No on the Best Picture chances for Potter. As for the mobile version, that is something I am trying to figure out a solution for.
Box Office Mojo is reporting a total weekend Global haul for Harry Potter of $330 million all in.
Yikes, that's some pretty brutal frontloading. Almost as bad as New Moon actually. I guess we'll see how it plays over the next couple weeks, but with that kind of frontloading I don't think $300 million is a given, and passing Sorcerer's Stone, which I think everyone thought was inevitable, looks pretty unlikely now. Goblet of Fire did do very well against very weak field five years ago, but if you look at Half-Blood Prince last year that fell 62% from a diluted opening weekend (due to the Wednesday opening) to a normal second weekend. This one had a normal three-day opening, but will face a diluted Thanksgiving weekend. It's hard to say at this point, because it depends on how much money Tangled brings in Wed-Thu, but I'm thinking Tangled beats Potter next weekend.
Regarding the Best Picture question, I've seen some speculation that Part 2 might have a shot at a nomination, basically as a recognition for the entire franchise. And really, these films are better than some of the stuff that got nominated last year (The Blind Side, Avatar). I don't think it's something the Academy would be completely averse to, unless next year turns out to be a really strong year. This all presupposes that Part 2 is well received of course.
Tell me about it. Not even Goblet of Fire grossed $300 million Stateside despite an opening of $102 million. Being outgrossed Stateside by Star Wars episode 3: Revenge of the Sith that year is one thing, but being outgrossed Stateside by a non sequel that year (the first Narnia to be exact) is just embarrasing.
My guess is that the second half of Deadly Hallows will be more competition for highest grossing weekend because although I did enjoy the Part 1, its nothing more then extra buildup for the finale.
Unless the 4th Pirates movie insanely overperforms.
I guess this leaves Woody and Buzz to be the kings of 2010.
Most likely, lets just hope it surpasses Alice and Wonderland's gross. I hate that movie so much.
I thought Toy Story 3 already done that.
I meant I hope HP7 surpasses Alice in Wonderland not TS3. Sorry about that.
I'm predicting that December's top grossing movie this year will be the third Narnia simply because it's a franchise property with a built in audience. Plus family sells
Does anyone have any better suggestions?
TRON LEGACY!
It will dominate. Narnia is doomed.
As much as I'd love to see TRON Legacy dominate in December, I'm afraid the top-grosser will be something like Little Fockers or Gulliver's Travels. =/
Why would Tron Legacy dominate?
I can't imagine many people flocking to see Tron Legacy, since the majority of the people who are still alive may not be aware of the first Tron.
I agree with Just Myself about Little Fockers, but I think Gulliver's Travels will bomb like almost every other movie from Fox this year. I think TRON: Legacy will do decent like $80-$100 million, but it will need a lot of money overseas to pay for the budget (and marketing) if it wants money back and the possible idea of a franchise (let alone a sequel).
Yogi Bear will bomb also even though it is a cgi animated family movie with live-action elements (see how bad this years Marmaduke did?)
Narnia is losing fans so don't be surprised if it just barley passes the $100 million mark.
Top for December: Little Fockers, Narnia 3, and TRON: Legacy
If Tron: Legacy only does $80 – $100 million over the Christmas period with 3D that will not be a decent performance.
That will be a huge domestic flop in serious need of international dollars to mitigate it.
Potter needs to make as much as possible during Thanksgiving. Remember the post-Thankgiving dead zone will see everything fall at least 50%, and most non-kids films 60% or more. I would have picked a post Thanksgiving release date, personally, forcing other films to move. The studio must be counting on Potter being frontloaded.
Don't forget the Christmas weekend bump. At least at our theater, all the movies have a big upsurge in attendance during Christmas week, Christmas Day and right up until after New Year's.
Don't discount it so quickly, it has a better chance of holding later on than the "Twilight" franchise.
In Britain, cinemas are shut on Christmas Day due to the fact we tend to stuff ourselves with turkey at Christmas dinner. In America, do cinemas shut on Christmas Day?
Nope, open and ready for business
It's possible. I'd question the size of the 'built in' audience though given the comparitively dismal performance of the second Narnia vs the first. I'd surmise that's probably why Fox scheduled it for December to mirror the release schedule of the first one. And boy, do they need a hit this year. Just about everything they've put out this year has flopped. Which doesn't actually bode well for Narnia either……
Anyway……Gulliver's Travels looks like a disaster from the trailer, although Little Fockers might pull a surprise result out of the hat (been six years since the last one) it also suffers from awful trailer-itis.
Of course, there is also Tron: Legacy. Which should not at all be discounted either. At any rate, whichever ends up the bigger earner, I won't be contributing to Narnia's coffers……….likely Tron's though.
That post is re Xmas box-office.
I'm not surprised that Harry Potter 7 had a dip in attendance on Saturday. Word of mouth travels fast and by that time, I'm sure many cautious parents were informed of the darker tone of this film: which includeds the torture of a main female character, the death of a main character, the dismembering of another beloved character and the appearance of two main characters sharing a nude kiss (though the nudity was carefully edited out by CGI).
Still, $300+ million for Deathly Hallows is definitely within reach and I fully expect another $550 million in foreign box office, making for a grand total of over $800 milion.
Thems the facts
The first two things (i.e. the darker tone and character death) I agree with, but there was no nudity when Dan Radcliffe and Emma Watson shot that scene. Both of them were shirtless, but Watson had a cloth covering her chest (according to one interview with Watson).
And Harry Potter has been a darker streak since "Goblet of Fire" was the first PG-13 rated film in the franchise. Just because "Half-Blood Prince" (for reasons beyond me) was rated PG doesn't mean parents think it's being diluted again.
But the Saturday and Sunday dropoff surprised me. I heard people still want to see "Deathly Hallows" Thanksgiving weekend, which might soften the second weekend drop to maybe 50% or 60%.
Thanks so much for clearing up the whole "nude kiss" scene which I mentioned previously, I'm glad to hear that the director was tactful enough to not subjugate to close friends to an creepy scene; however, it still doesn't change the fact that in THE FILM, the two APPEAR to be naked and being in what can only be described as the throws of sexual passion. It was very adult and a little disturbing.
And as for parents, I guess I was thinking about those who have children between the ages of 7 and 10 – the material might be a little too ADULT for them this time around and should possibly wait a few years before being allowed to complete the series. However, I'm not a parent so I can't speak as an authority on what's best for children.
Thems the facts
HP's opening is an amazing number yet the article opens negatively. What is with this recent culture where every movie has to break a record and it's always judged in those terms?
Negative? What is negative? The part where I say it's "an impressive result"? Perhaps the part where I say it's "the highest opening weekend for a Potter film yet"? Maybe how I point out it's the sixth largest opening ever? Man, lots of options to choose from, which one was it that bothered you?
Box-Office Wrap-Up: 'Harry Potter' is a $125.1 Million Wizard
39… But he's not a record-breaking one
Ha ha ha… Facts are now negative. I get it. Facts do tend to get in the way and spoil the fun.
1. HARRY POTTER & THE DEATHLY HALLOWS- 70 mil
2.BURLESQUE- 28 mil
3. TANGLED- 21 mil
4. MEGAMIND- 15 mil
5. LOVE & OTHER DRUGS- 12 mil
Still working out the kinks for my wed. numbers but here's what I see right now.
Potter – 60 mil
Tangled – 35 mil
Burlesque – 25 mil
Faster – 19 mil
L&O Drugs 17 mil
Hey i've been checking this site out for a couple months now, but this my first time commenting. Enough about me, lets talk about this weekend.
I'm surprised about how much HP7 dipped on Saturday, although it must have been because of the dark tone of the film. Also, I'd like to add that this is the highest grossing weekend for movies since June 18-20 when Toy Story 3 came out (if estimates hold).
For next week:
1. HP7-$63 million
2. Tangled-$29 million (Wednesday opening will hurt its opening weekend)
3. Burlesque-$21 million (where most women will be next weekend)
4. Love and Other Drugs-$14 million (R rating will hurt it)
5. Faster-$11 million
Always nice to have a new voice in the mix. Thanks for reading and keeping the conversation alive.
Am I the only one who seriously thinks Burlesque will crash and burn next week? I smell RENT again….
Yeah, but "Rent" reminded people they could Rent the movie instead. That's why they didn't go see it.
My estimates for the Thanksgiving weekend:
1. Harry Potter 7.1 — $65M
2. Tangled — $30M
3. Burlesque — $25M
4. Faster — $15M
5. Love and Other Drugs — $10M
6. Next Three Days — $3M
Why the high estimates for Burlesque? Despite the heavy advertising, it looks awful. Comments I heard after the American Music Awards were "Christina looks fat", and "I don't think that's going to help sell tickets". This from people who had previoulsly expressed interest in the movie. I think the more they advertise, the more the interest in the movie will decline. And I like many musicals, but this just looks trashy. I will be surprised if it does more than $8-$12 million. I'm thinking there is no clear choice for a date movie this weekend.
Morning Glory looks like the closest thing to "date movie" you're gonna get.
All this coming from someone with a pic of Miley Cyrus as their avatar? lol, My prediction was based solely on tracking, It is for a 5 day weekend.
I said months ago Christina last CD flopped and she cancelled a tour probably due to low ticket sales, so she is not a draw at all. But I am sure you will see it advertised 3-4 times during a new "Glee", so if it gets not-bad reviews, if might do OK.
5 day $25 for Burlesque is possible, but Tangled will have a much, much better 5 day. I realize these are preliminary thoughts/numbers, though.
My predictions for next weekend
1. Deathly Hallows part 1 $50 million
2. Tangled $30 million
3. Faster $28 million
4. Megamind $14 million
5. Unstoppable $7 million
6. Due Date $5 million
7. Morning Glory $2 million
8. Love and Other Drugs $1.5 million
9. Red $1.2 million
10. Skyline $1 million
I knew that Harry Potter (especially the first part to a two part finale) wasn't going to take the opening weekend crown. Harry Potter movies aren't as front-loaded as Twilight films. The next film will no doubt break records however. That'll probably make $150 million opening weekend, especially if they have the 3D conversions ready by then.
As for next weekend, I think Faster could pull "Law Abiding Citizen" (or at very least, "Walking Tall") numbers and it should be Rock…er, Dwayne Johnson's first big non-family movie starring role in a while. Burlesque I still think will bomb (if Nine and Rent didn't make money, and Christina is reeling from her failure of a comeback album this year, why should this be a hit?) and Tangled should do better business than "Princess & the Frog" did last year. Probably "Enchanted" numbers since you have the 3D beefing up ticket prices. Still, Potter will take it but will drop to $54 million for the three-day.
People are talking about Burlesque, but I don't think that will translate into ticket sales. Even Cher fans are lukewarm about it. Something about the scuttlebut that knocking out a couple of films is part of her Vegas contract, more than something she's exited about. Younger girls will go with the rest of their family to Potter or Tangled, or maybe Due Date.
I did think the hp movie was going to knock twilight on its feet. The facts were their. HP has a much broader fan base crazier fan base ill even say. Twilight has one demographic which is the tween-teen girls and twilight moms. Although they do go back for another watch i seriously thought the potter fans would've done the last films some financial justice.
Well, since it will probably end up outgrossing any of the Twilight films once total grosses are taken into account it will be not be a case of justice not being done.
Potter is still a considerably broader draw globally than Twilight based on box-office takings.